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Senior Jockey
Only gone up 3........Hoping it's not Ayr on Saturday as logistically can get there but the credit card won't like it.
The thoughts of the handicappers.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Only gone up 3........Hoping it's not Ayr on Saturday as logistically can get there but the credit card won't like it.
Perpetual
At the Start
The Cheltenham Festival | BHA Handicappers Blog
19 Mar 19
Photo Finish
Al Boum Photo provided training legend Willie Mullins with almost the final piece in his Cheltenham Festival jigsaw when scoring in the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup, writes Martin Greenwood.
The 2019 renewal looked particularly interesting with almost all of the field seemingly having some sort of chance going in. They didn’t hang about either and jumping errors soon put paid to several chances early on. Native River (who looks as though he needs a thorough test nowadays) and Might Bite (stopped quickly as though amiss again) set the fractions and they were joined by the strong-travelling trio of Al Boum Photo, Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai as they approached the business end of the race.
Al Boum Photo kicked on turning for home and outstayed both Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai to score by two and a half lengths from the staying-on Anibale Fly, possibly dossing a little in front. This was clearly a personal best for Al Boum Photo who is a very unexposed stayer and I would suggest there is more to come from him. His new figure of 176 is a few pounds higher than race standards suggest and is at least comparable to the winning performances of both Don Cossack and Native River in recent years. It is also more in line with the time figure compared to the later Foxhunters.
Anibale Fly also posted his best ever performance and 172 betters his third in the same race twelve months previously. He will be 8 lb ‘well in’ should he take in the Grand National again (fourth last year) and shapes as though he needs an out and out test. Bristol de Mai will also be 4 lb in front if he also takes up the National challenge and he shaped as though confirming all of his ability from the Betfair Chase while seeming to not quite get home. That comment also applies to Clan des Obeaux, who you would imagine will always be ideally suited by a flatter track. That pair are both now 172. Favourite without jumping a fence in public this season, Presenting Percy was never involved and came back lame.
While several of those horses already discussed will undoubtedly be back in the 2020 Gold Cup, three horses who will probably also be lining up if their campaigns go to plan are the trio who pulled clear in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase.
Presenting Percy won a good renewal in 2018 and this year’s race also has a strong look to it. The market and pre-race ratings suggested it was probably between Delta Work, Santini and Topofthegame and so it proved, with the last-named always holding the rallying Santini after a fine waiting ride from Harry Cobden, who seemed to have learnt a lesson from the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and delayed his challenge a little. The strong-travelling Topofthegame is a fine stamp of a horse and surely has the look of a serious Gold Cup challenger. That’s not to say that Santini (a real stayer by the look of things) and Delta Work (who faded late) aren’t also going to be major players next season. Ratings wise this looks above the average and 163, 161 and 159 for the trio almost certainly underestimates their potential.
Back to the Grand National, as well as Anibale Fly and Bristol de Mai, several others produced good performances at Cheltenham that would seem to enhance their prospects for the big day.
Reigning champ Tiger Roll remarkably looks an even better horse this year, sluicing in over hurdles at Navan and then barely coming off the bridle in the Cross Country. I have increased his rating to 167 but that could be higher if anything and makes him 8 lb ‘well in’ for the National, the same as Anibale Fly and fellow Irish raider Rathvinden, the latter having landed the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month. Others able to run off their original National weight but due a rise after last week are Vintage Clouds (+5) and Lake View Lad (+3), who both ran very encouraging races in the Ultima Handicap, while Ramses de Teillee is now 5lb higher after his second in the National Trial at Haydock in February. Add Ms Parfois (+7) into the mix after her excellent second in the Midlands National on Saturday and Pairofbrowneyes (+10 after winning the Leinster National), and the already hot race gets even hotter.
Apple’s Jaded
In all my years assessing the Unibet Champion Hurdle, there has not been a renewal as difficult to interpret as this year’s, writes David Dickinson…
A shock winner doesn’t necessarily lead to a problem in gauging a race level. A reasonable example of that came in the National Hunt Breeders Supported By Tattersalls Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle later at the meeting which was fought out by outsiders from the Mullins and Elliott yards. There were one or two below par efforts but also enough solid form to enable me to put a figure of 140 on the winner Eglantine du Seuil with a reasonable amount of confidence.
Not so the Champion Hurdle. Melon’s endeavours to force the pace didn’t do him any favours but it appeared to ruin any chance Apple’s Jade might have had. My stopwatch suggests that between flights two and three the field went roughly eleven lengths faster than the field in the Supreme; looking back to last year, they were five lengths faster than for Buveur d’Air’s second Champion success. And what happened at flight three? The dual champion came to grief. And so the stage was set for Laurina but, as I blogged at this time last year, I doubted she was purely a two mile horse – and she had tried to go with the pace.
The relative times in the closing stages also tell their tale. In 2018 the Champion Hurdle was two lengths faster from the third last then the Supreme, this year it was nine lengths slower. And which horses ran their races on the day? Espoir d’Allen and the talented former handicapper Silver Streak, though the latter made a mistake.
My race standards and the official winning margin both suggest that Espoir d’Allen is the best Champion Hurdle winner ever. He was very good but I have massive doubts that a strict interpretation of the finishing positions and relative margins of all the runners is the way to assess what happened. For the moment, I have put a ‘par rating’ of 170 on his performance. If I had used Silver Streak’s current mark to level the race I would be rating the winner around 172. That is the same as Buveur’ d’Air’s current mark and, no doubt, the word fudge would be used at some point. Hopefully the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals will give us more evidence to work with.
One thing that is not in doubt is the ability of the Sky bet Supreme winner Klassical Dream who has been a revelation this season. He proved his courage in Ireland last time out and at Cheltenham he proved his brilliance. In rating him 157 I have put him right on the heels of what the likes of Altior, Douvan and Vautour achieved in winning this race.
The complete tragedy that befell the Irish star Sir Erec marred the Triumph Hurdle but the fact remains that Nicky Henderson, once again, managed to unearth a very fine performer after just one impressive win at a minor track. Pentland Hills rating of 153 is within a pound of the recent average for the race.
Record-equalling success for Altior
Altior matched Big Buck’s record of eighteen consecutive jumps wins but was made to work harder than might have been expected in the feature race on day two. Chris Nash explains….
The Grade 1 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase featured the shortest priced favourite of the meeting in the shape of 4/11-shot Altior. He got the job done but it was a long way from being the stroll in the park that his odds suggested that it would be. Altior went to the front after jumping three out but plenty were still on his tail turning for home and he had to dig very deep to hold them off. He eventually passed the post one and three quarter lengths clear of Politologue with the same distance back to Sceau Royal in third. Although not wildly impressive, Altior showed real determination under pressure to keep his unbeaten record over obstacles intact.
He arrived here with a rating of 175 and there had been plenty of comment, and even some eyebrows raised, when Cyrname had been rated above him (at 178) after winning the Ascot Chase last month. The bare form of the Champion Chase is a long way from being able to justify any increase in the rating of Altior. The figures given to the last ten winners of this race range from 167 to 186 and average out at 174. Applying race standards has Altior running a figure in the range of 167 to 169. I have attached a figure of 168+ to his performance which has Politologue running to his pre-race rating of 166, Sceau Royal running a career best of 164 and Hell’s Kitchen also recording a marginal career best of 158 in finishing fourth. If anything, the form of Cyrname probably took a boost here via the performance of Politologue who had finished over 20 lengths behind him at level weights at Ascot.
The novices got their chance over the 2m trip in the Grade 1 Racing Post Arkle Trophy on day one, and the first three home were all Irish trained. We got a wide margin winner in the shape of Duc Des Genievres who passed the post thirteen lengths clear of Us And Them, with a further three and three quarter lengths back to Articulum in third. There were a few thrills and spills in the race and the failure of some fancied horses to get round probably leaves some question marks over the form. That said, the winner was undeniably impressive – he led going best three out and only needed hands and heels riding up the straight.
The figures given to the last ten winners of this race range from 158 to 169 and average out at 162. Applying race standards to this contest has the winner running a figure between 163 and 167 and I settled on the lower end of this range. That still has Duc Des Genievres recording a big career best of 163, Us And Them running very close to his recent figures in Ireland at 150 and Articulum running a marginal career best at 146. The three highest rated British runners in the race all failed to get round, so Lalor (151), Glen Forsa (150) and Kalashnikov (148) will retain their pre-race ratings. That was a frustrating outcome from a handicapping point of view as this race usually provides an opportunity to assess the relative merits of the British and Irish trained novices but we were largely denied that chance.
Paisley Perfection
Paisley Park may not have needed to improve his form any further to land the Stayers’ Hurdle but he certainly enhanced his standing with a clear-cut success in the showpiece race in the division. Andrew Mealor assesses the performance…
Unbeaten in four races previously the season, Paisley Park came into the race with a lofty figure of 168 gained when running out a twelve-length winner of the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham’s Trials Meeting in January. Such a rating already marked him out as good enough to win a Stayers’ Hurdle – the average winning rating for the previous five renewals was 167 – and he didn’t let his supporters down.
Impressions on the day that the Stayers’ Hurdle was run at a flat-out gallop aren’t quite borne out by the evidence of the clock – the field reached the sixth hurdle (around halfway) over a second slower than they did in the Pertemps Final over the same trip 80 minutes earlier and the overall time comes out roughly similar – though the race still provided a fair enough test and certainly wasn’t a repeat of the tactical 2017 renewal.
Stamina is clearly Paisley Park’s strong suit, and having hit his customary flat spot down the hill he powered to the front between the last two flights and likely would have won by a bit further but for making a mistake at the last.
Runner-up Sam Spinner has been quiet since his success in last season’s Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, but he was rated 164 after that win and looks to have got back to that level here under an aggressive ride. His returning to form ties in nicely with Paisley Park more or less repeating the level he had achieved in the Cleeve (168+), and sits just above the level suggested by historical standards.
Festival stalwart Faugheen was rated 169 in last season’s Anglo-Irish classification after his win over three miles at Punchestown. Eleven years old now, he couldn’t quite repeat those heroics but this was a perfectly good run all things considered (161), especially as he was coming in off a heavy fall on his previous start in December. He just held off stablemate Bapaume (160) who made up plenty of ground from rear and looks to have produced a career best.
A figure of 168 puts Paisley Park a bit behind the best recent winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, Thistlecrack and Big Buck’s both having reached a peak of 174, but he’s got time on his side as a seven-year-old and may well have a bigger performance in him given his rate of progress so far.
Both of the Festival novice events for the younger stayers over hurdles looked well up to scratch.
Favourite Battleoverdoyen (reported as never travelling by his jockey) may have disappointed in the Ballymore Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle but we still got a good finish courtesy of City Island and Champ, the former coming out on top by two lengths.
A figure in the mid-to-low 150s is customary for a Ballymore winner, and with Champ coming in at 152 after wins in a well-contested handicap and the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, it seems logical to place the unbeaten City Island at the upper end of that range (154). They both look good prospects going forward. There was also plenty of promise from Bright Forecast (149) and Brewin’upastorm (148) who finished well clear of the rest in filling the places, the former in particular who improved markedly on his previous form up in trip and came home well after a patient ride.
Following the 33/1 success of Kilbricken Storm last season, the Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle again produced a shock winner in 50/1-outsider Minella Indo. He’d been placed on his two previous runs at home in Ireland, but the latter of those was a second in a Grade 3 (behind Albert Bartlett third Allaho) and he produced another big chunk of improvement in beating fellow Irish contender (and Grade 1 winner) Commander of Fleet by two lengths, the win all the more impressive given he didn’t really settle for much of the race.
That pair finished clear of a couple who had already produced ratings in the 140s and the first two have both been credited with 150+ performances, Minella Indo sitting just behind the Ballymore winner on 153. Historical standards for the race also provide further confidence in that sort of level.
The level of the novice events in particular could well be influenced by events at Aintree and Punchestown, and the final ratings will be ratified in the end-of-season Anglo-Irish Classification.
Ryanair joy for Frodon
A thrilling renewal of the Ryanair Chase saw a game front-running Frodon come out on top after a brilliant round of jumping, writes Michael Harris
The Ryanair looked very competitive beforehand and Frodon was top-rated going into the race on 169, having achieved that figure when winning a handicap at Cheltenham in December. With plenty of possible pace angles in the field a strong gallop could have been expected, but with Un de Sceaux and Monalee happy to track the leaders on this occasion, Frodon was able to control the race from the front. His jumping under pressure is a real asset, and with stamina assured he battled on strongly all the way up the hill.
Historically, the last ten winner’s average out at 169 and I am happy that Frodon has replicated his 169 here – he remains second only to stablemate Cyrname in the 2m4f Anglo-Irish rankings so far this season. Aso (+6 to 168), another Cheltenham handicap winner this season and last seen when behind the aforementioned Cyrname at Ascot, bettered his third place finish in this race two years ago and produced a career best despite not being able to dominate, tactics which had seen him to best effect previously. Road to Respect travelled well dropped back in trip but a mistake three out cost him momentum at a crucial stage of the race and he ran a little below his best at 166.
In the novice division, The JLT saw two old rivals fight out a great finish in what developed into a tactical affair. Only 3 lb covered the principles pre-race in what looked an open renewal and Lostintranslation was able to dictate from the front with a good round of jumping. The field was still well bunched three out before the sprint for home began and Defi du Seuil had the best turn of foot, confirming his superiority with Lostintranslation from their meeting in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown in February.
Vautour produced an outstanding performance in landing this in 2015 (171) but the other winners of the race have ranged from 157 to 162, with an eight-year average of 161. Pre-race standards suggested a mark of around 160 and I have settled on 159 for Defi Du Seuil (+8 from 151), which is the same rating Yorkhill and Taquin du Seuil were given after winning this in recent years. Shattered Love, factoring in her mares’ allowance, was 1lb higher at 160 last year.
Lostintranslation (+7 to 157) lost little in defeat and he should show further improvement once his stamina is drawn out. Mengli Khan (151) finished third for the second successive festival and a drop back to 2 miles looks the way forward for him having not quite seen his race out.
The best novice performance in the 2m4f division, however, came in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap, with A Plus Tard running out an extremely impressive winner of what had looked a wide-open handicap. He ran off a mark of 144 which is the highest rating won off in this race since its inception in 2005. Only a five-year-old, A Plus Tard travelled easily throughout before sprinting clear up the straight. I have him performing to 163, 4 lb ahead of Defi du Seuil. That makes him the joint-leading novice so far this season, alongside RSA chase winner Topofthegame and Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres.
19 Mar 19
Photo Finish
Al Boum Photo provided training legend Willie Mullins with almost the final piece in his Cheltenham Festival jigsaw when scoring in the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup, writes Martin Greenwood.
The 2019 renewal looked particularly interesting with almost all of the field seemingly having some sort of chance going in. They didn’t hang about either and jumping errors soon put paid to several chances early on. Native River (who looks as though he needs a thorough test nowadays) and Might Bite (stopped quickly as though amiss again) set the fractions and they were joined by the strong-travelling trio of Al Boum Photo, Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai as they approached the business end of the race.
Al Boum Photo kicked on turning for home and outstayed both Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai to score by two and a half lengths from the staying-on Anibale Fly, possibly dossing a little in front. This was clearly a personal best for Al Boum Photo who is a very unexposed stayer and I would suggest there is more to come from him. His new figure of 176 is a few pounds higher than race standards suggest and is at least comparable to the winning performances of both Don Cossack and Native River in recent years. It is also more in line with the time figure compared to the later Foxhunters.
Anibale Fly also posted his best ever performance and 172 betters his third in the same race twelve months previously. He will be 8 lb ‘well in’ should he take in the Grand National again (fourth last year) and shapes as though he needs an out and out test. Bristol de Mai will also be 4 lb in front if he also takes up the National challenge and he shaped as though confirming all of his ability from the Betfair Chase while seeming to not quite get home. That comment also applies to Clan des Obeaux, who you would imagine will always be ideally suited by a flatter track. That pair are both now 172. Favourite without jumping a fence in public this season, Presenting Percy was never involved and came back lame.
While several of those horses already discussed will undoubtedly be back in the 2020 Gold Cup, three horses who will probably also be lining up if their campaigns go to plan are the trio who pulled clear in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase.
Presenting Percy won a good renewal in 2018 and this year’s race also has a strong look to it. The market and pre-race ratings suggested it was probably between Delta Work, Santini and Topofthegame and so it proved, with the last-named always holding the rallying Santini after a fine waiting ride from Harry Cobden, who seemed to have learnt a lesson from the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and delayed his challenge a little. The strong-travelling Topofthegame is a fine stamp of a horse and surely has the look of a serious Gold Cup challenger. That’s not to say that Santini (a real stayer by the look of things) and Delta Work (who faded late) aren’t also going to be major players next season. Ratings wise this looks above the average and 163, 161 and 159 for the trio almost certainly underestimates their potential.
Back to the Grand National, as well as Anibale Fly and Bristol de Mai, several others produced good performances at Cheltenham that would seem to enhance their prospects for the big day.
Reigning champ Tiger Roll remarkably looks an even better horse this year, sluicing in over hurdles at Navan and then barely coming off the bridle in the Cross Country. I have increased his rating to 167 but that could be higher if anything and makes him 8 lb ‘well in’ for the National, the same as Anibale Fly and fellow Irish raider Rathvinden, the latter having landed the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month. Others able to run off their original National weight but due a rise after last week are Vintage Clouds (+5) and Lake View Lad (+3), who both ran very encouraging races in the Ultima Handicap, while Ramses de Teillee is now 5lb higher after his second in the National Trial at Haydock in February. Add Ms Parfois (+7) into the mix after her excellent second in the Midlands National on Saturday and Pairofbrowneyes (+10 after winning the Leinster National), and the already hot race gets even hotter.
Apple’s Jaded
In all my years assessing the Unibet Champion Hurdle, there has not been a renewal as difficult to interpret as this year’s, writes David Dickinson…
A shock winner doesn’t necessarily lead to a problem in gauging a race level. A reasonable example of that came in the National Hunt Breeders Supported By Tattersalls Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle later at the meeting which was fought out by outsiders from the Mullins and Elliott yards. There were one or two below par efforts but also enough solid form to enable me to put a figure of 140 on the winner Eglantine du Seuil with a reasonable amount of confidence.
Not so the Champion Hurdle. Melon’s endeavours to force the pace didn’t do him any favours but it appeared to ruin any chance Apple’s Jade might have had. My stopwatch suggests that between flights two and three the field went roughly eleven lengths faster than the field in the Supreme; looking back to last year, they were five lengths faster than for Buveur d’Air’s second Champion success. And what happened at flight three? The dual champion came to grief. And so the stage was set for Laurina but, as I blogged at this time last year, I doubted she was purely a two mile horse – and she had tried to go with the pace.
The relative times in the closing stages also tell their tale. In 2018 the Champion Hurdle was two lengths faster from the third last then the Supreme, this year it was nine lengths slower. And which horses ran their races on the day? Espoir d’Allen and the talented former handicapper Silver Streak, though the latter made a mistake.
My race standards and the official winning margin both suggest that Espoir d’Allen is the best Champion Hurdle winner ever. He was very good but I have massive doubts that a strict interpretation of the finishing positions and relative margins of all the runners is the way to assess what happened. For the moment, I have put a ‘par rating’ of 170 on his performance. If I had used Silver Streak’s current mark to level the race I would be rating the winner around 172. That is the same as Buveur’ d’Air’s current mark and, no doubt, the word fudge would be used at some point. Hopefully the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals will give us more evidence to work with.
One thing that is not in doubt is the ability of the Sky bet Supreme winner Klassical Dream who has been a revelation this season. He proved his courage in Ireland last time out and at Cheltenham he proved his brilliance. In rating him 157 I have put him right on the heels of what the likes of Altior, Douvan and Vautour achieved in winning this race.
The complete tragedy that befell the Irish star Sir Erec marred the Triumph Hurdle but the fact remains that Nicky Henderson, once again, managed to unearth a very fine performer after just one impressive win at a minor track. Pentland Hills rating of 153 is within a pound of the recent average for the race.
Record-equalling success for Altior
Altior matched Big Buck’s record of eighteen consecutive jumps wins but was made to work harder than might have been expected in the feature race on day two. Chris Nash explains….
The Grade 1 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase featured the shortest priced favourite of the meeting in the shape of 4/11-shot Altior. He got the job done but it was a long way from being the stroll in the park that his odds suggested that it would be. Altior went to the front after jumping three out but plenty were still on his tail turning for home and he had to dig very deep to hold them off. He eventually passed the post one and three quarter lengths clear of Politologue with the same distance back to Sceau Royal in third. Although not wildly impressive, Altior showed real determination under pressure to keep his unbeaten record over obstacles intact.
He arrived here with a rating of 175 and there had been plenty of comment, and even some eyebrows raised, when Cyrname had been rated above him (at 178) after winning the Ascot Chase last month. The bare form of the Champion Chase is a long way from being able to justify any increase in the rating of Altior. The figures given to the last ten winners of this race range from 167 to 186 and average out at 174. Applying race standards has Altior running a figure in the range of 167 to 169. I have attached a figure of 168+ to his performance which has Politologue running to his pre-race rating of 166, Sceau Royal running a career best of 164 and Hell’s Kitchen also recording a marginal career best of 158 in finishing fourth. If anything, the form of Cyrname probably took a boost here via the performance of Politologue who had finished over 20 lengths behind him at level weights at Ascot.
The novices got their chance over the 2m trip in the Grade 1 Racing Post Arkle Trophy on day one, and the first three home were all Irish trained. We got a wide margin winner in the shape of Duc Des Genievres who passed the post thirteen lengths clear of Us And Them, with a further three and three quarter lengths back to Articulum in third. There were a few thrills and spills in the race and the failure of some fancied horses to get round probably leaves some question marks over the form. That said, the winner was undeniably impressive – he led going best three out and only needed hands and heels riding up the straight.
The figures given to the last ten winners of this race range from 158 to 169 and average out at 162. Applying race standards to this contest has the winner running a figure between 163 and 167 and I settled on the lower end of this range. That still has Duc Des Genievres recording a big career best of 163, Us And Them running very close to his recent figures in Ireland at 150 and Articulum running a marginal career best at 146. The three highest rated British runners in the race all failed to get round, so Lalor (151), Glen Forsa (150) and Kalashnikov (148) will retain their pre-race ratings. That was a frustrating outcome from a handicapping point of view as this race usually provides an opportunity to assess the relative merits of the British and Irish trained novices but we were largely denied that chance.
Paisley Perfection
Paisley Park may not have needed to improve his form any further to land the Stayers’ Hurdle but he certainly enhanced his standing with a clear-cut success in the showpiece race in the division. Andrew Mealor assesses the performance…
Unbeaten in four races previously the season, Paisley Park came into the race with a lofty figure of 168 gained when running out a twelve-length winner of the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham’s Trials Meeting in January. Such a rating already marked him out as good enough to win a Stayers’ Hurdle – the average winning rating for the previous five renewals was 167 – and he didn’t let his supporters down.
Impressions on the day that the Stayers’ Hurdle was run at a flat-out gallop aren’t quite borne out by the evidence of the clock – the field reached the sixth hurdle (around halfway) over a second slower than they did in the Pertemps Final over the same trip 80 minutes earlier and the overall time comes out roughly similar – though the race still provided a fair enough test and certainly wasn’t a repeat of the tactical 2017 renewal.
Stamina is clearly Paisley Park’s strong suit, and having hit his customary flat spot down the hill he powered to the front between the last two flights and likely would have won by a bit further but for making a mistake at the last.
Runner-up Sam Spinner has been quiet since his success in last season’s Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, but he was rated 164 after that win and looks to have got back to that level here under an aggressive ride. His returning to form ties in nicely with Paisley Park more or less repeating the level he had achieved in the Cleeve (168+), and sits just above the level suggested by historical standards.
Festival stalwart Faugheen was rated 169 in last season’s Anglo-Irish classification after his win over three miles at Punchestown. Eleven years old now, he couldn’t quite repeat those heroics but this was a perfectly good run all things considered (161), especially as he was coming in off a heavy fall on his previous start in December. He just held off stablemate Bapaume (160) who made up plenty of ground from rear and looks to have produced a career best.
A figure of 168 puts Paisley Park a bit behind the best recent winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, Thistlecrack and Big Buck’s both having reached a peak of 174, but he’s got time on his side as a seven-year-old and may well have a bigger performance in him given his rate of progress so far.
Both of the Festival novice events for the younger stayers over hurdles looked well up to scratch.
Favourite Battleoverdoyen (reported as never travelling by his jockey) may have disappointed in the Ballymore Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle but we still got a good finish courtesy of City Island and Champ, the former coming out on top by two lengths.
A figure in the mid-to-low 150s is customary for a Ballymore winner, and with Champ coming in at 152 after wins in a well-contested handicap and the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, it seems logical to place the unbeaten City Island at the upper end of that range (154). They both look good prospects going forward. There was also plenty of promise from Bright Forecast (149) and Brewin’upastorm (148) who finished well clear of the rest in filling the places, the former in particular who improved markedly on his previous form up in trip and came home well after a patient ride.
Following the 33/1 success of Kilbricken Storm last season, the Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle again produced a shock winner in 50/1-outsider Minella Indo. He’d been placed on his two previous runs at home in Ireland, but the latter of those was a second in a Grade 3 (behind Albert Bartlett third Allaho) and he produced another big chunk of improvement in beating fellow Irish contender (and Grade 1 winner) Commander of Fleet by two lengths, the win all the more impressive given he didn’t really settle for much of the race.
That pair finished clear of a couple who had already produced ratings in the 140s and the first two have both been credited with 150+ performances, Minella Indo sitting just behind the Ballymore winner on 153. Historical standards for the race also provide further confidence in that sort of level.
The level of the novice events in particular could well be influenced by events at Aintree and Punchestown, and the final ratings will be ratified in the end-of-season Anglo-Irish Classification.
Ryanair joy for Frodon
A thrilling renewal of the Ryanair Chase saw a game front-running Frodon come out on top after a brilliant round of jumping, writes Michael Harris
The Ryanair looked very competitive beforehand and Frodon was top-rated going into the race on 169, having achieved that figure when winning a handicap at Cheltenham in December. With plenty of possible pace angles in the field a strong gallop could have been expected, but with Un de Sceaux and Monalee happy to track the leaders on this occasion, Frodon was able to control the race from the front. His jumping under pressure is a real asset, and with stamina assured he battled on strongly all the way up the hill.
Historically, the last ten winner’s average out at 169 and I am happy that Frodon has replicated his 169 here – he remains second only to stablemate Cyrname in the 2m4f Anglo-Irish rankings so far this season. Aso (+6 to 168), another Cheltenham handicap winner this season and last seen when behind the aforementioned Cyrname at Ascot, bettered his third place finish in this race two years ago and produced a career best despite not being able to dominate, tactics which had seen him to best effect previously. Road to Respect travelled well dropped back in trip but a mistake three out cost him momentum at a crucial stage of the race and he ran a little below his best at 166.
In the novice division, The JLT saw two old rivals fight out a great finish in what developed into a tactical affair. Only 3 lb covered the principles pre-race in what looked an open renewal and Lostintranslation was able to dictate from the front with a good round of jumping. The field was still well bunched three out before the sprint for home began and Defi du Seuil had the best turn of foot, confirming his superiority with Lostintranslation from their meeting in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown in February.
Vautour produced an outstanding performance in landing this in 2015 (171) but the other winners of the race have ranged from 157 to 162, with an eight-year average of 161. Pre-race standards suggested a mark of around 160 and I have settled on 159 for Defi Du Seuil (+8 from 151), which is the same rating Yorkhill and Taquin du Seuil were given after winning this in recent years. Shattered Love, factoring in her mares’ allowance, was 1lb higher at 160 last year.
Lostintranslation (+7 to 157) lost little in defeat and he should show further improvement once his stamina is drawn out. Mengli Khan (151) finished third for the second successive festival and a drop back to 2 miles looks the way forward for him having not quite seen his race out.
The best novice performance in the 2m4f division, however, came in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap, with A Plus Tard running out an extremely impressive winner of what had looked a wide-open handicap. He ran off a mark of 144 which is the highest rating won off in this race since its inception in 2005. Only a five-year-old, A Plus Tard travelled easily throughout before sprinting clear up the straight. I have him performing to 163, 4 lb ahead of Defi du Seuil. That makes him the joint-leading novice so far this season, alongside RSA chase winner Topofthegame and Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres.
Perpetual
At the Start
Two from Aintree...
[h=2]2019 Aintree Grand National Festival | Handicappers Blog[/h]09 Apr 19
[h=4]That’s My Boy[/h]
Willie Mullins has quickly cornered the 2018/19 staying chase division in under a month, writes Martin Greenwood…
While King George winner Clan des Obeaux and Betfair Chase winner Bristol de Mai have performed with credit in both the Gold Cup and the Betway Bowl, neither have been able to stop first Al Boum Photo and then Kemboy reaching the top of the tree.
Like Al Boum Photo, Kemboy came into the Betway Bowl with an unexposed look to him and unsurprisingly went off favourite to put his early tumble in the Gold Cup behind him. Those market signals proved correct in no uncertain fashion with Kemboy tanking along throughout while setting what appeared to be just a sensible pace. With the exception of the amiss-looking Elegant Escape, they were still well bunched turning in. That didn’t last for long, however, and when asked to assert Kemboy did so in devastating fashion, leaving his toiling rivals fighting it out for minor honours after Balko des Flos made a last-fence howler.
LostInTranslation and Robbie Power
With the horses behind making some sense – if you accept Balko des Flos coming right back to his very best form – then Kemboy looks an above-standard winner. Cue Card achieved a figure of 176 when winning this race back in 2016 and Kemboy has been credited with a similar performance. Both Bristol de Mai and Clan des Obeaux have had their ratings slightly lowered again and they are both now 171.
The following day it was the turn of the staying novices. The Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase seemed an ideal opportunity for Topofthegame to confirm his performance in the RSA and he was duly sent off odds on. However, he left the impression that Cheltenham had left its mark as he put in some sketchy jumps and never seemed to be travelling smoothly on the second circuit, merely plugging on to overhaul pacesetter Top Ville Ben close home but no match for the impressive Lostintranslation. The latter was second best on ratings going in following his second in the JLT at the Festival and he relished his first try over 3m, scoring impressively after taking over the lead in the home straight.
Given the proximity of both Top Ville Ben and Mr Whipped, it is hard to push up Lostintranslation’s rating simply on the bare form, but allowing for the style in which he scored he will be in the low 160s and above a standard winner of this race. Both he and Topofthegame should play their part in next season’s leading staying events.
Melling glory for Min[h=4]Friday’s JLT Melling Chase looked a competitive renewal beforehand with just 3 lb separating the three highest-rated horses in the race. In event, however, Min trounced his five rivals. Michael Harris assesses the performance…[/h]
Min and Ruby Walsh
Politologue and Min had fought out a close finish in the same race twelve months earlier but on this occasion Min producing a scintillating front-running display. Although keen in the early stages, he travelled strongly throughout and eased to a twenty-length success. His best effort previously this season had also come over 20f (when winning at Punchestown) and it certainly appears that this trip is now his optimum.
Historically, the last ten winners average out at 171 and pre-race standards suggest a rating in the mid-170s for Min, which makes this a clear career best. I have settled on a figure of 173, although as with all of our ratings they will be discussed and finalised in the end of season Anglo-Irish classifications.
The performance leaves a similar impression to that created by Cyrname when he won the Ascot Chase by a wide margin back in February. With both Aso and Politologue running well at Cheltenham, that form appeared to have been given a boost, however Waiting Patiently did little for it with a distant third in the Melling. It is a race I will keep an eye on going forward. Min’s performance here arguably pays a handsome compliment to Altior, who has beaten Min on all three occasions he has faced him.
In the novice division, Kalashnikov ran out a game winner on his first run over 20f in the Devenish Manifesto Grade 1. He had been shaping as though a step up in trip would suit and it certainly appears that his future lies over this trip.
The recent average for a Manifesto winner has been 158. Kalashnikov is a bit below that at 155 but is still 1 lb higher than 2018 winner Finian’s Oscar. Mengli Khan ran a fine race in defeat and is another to advertise the strength of the JLT Chase form – Lostintranslation and Kildisart both won at Aintree and in light of all those performances I have collaterally raised the level of the JLT, with Defi du Seuil now rated 162 (from 159).
[h=4]Ornua strikes gold in the Maghull[/h][h=4]The Grade 1 Doom Bar Maghull Novice’ Chase, the feature chase run over 2m during the Aintree festival, perhaps lacked a star contender but it looked a very open race and duly resulted in a close finish, writes Chris Nash…[/h]
Irish-trained runners finished first and second with Ornua beating Us And Them by one and three quarter lengths, with a further one and a quarter lengths back to Destrier in third. The last ten winners of this race range from 155 to 169 and average out at 161. Applying race standards to the result suggests the winner would have run a figure in the region of 157–159. Given my doubts about the overall strength of the race, I opted for the bottom end of that range, though even that interpretation still has the first three home all running career best figures – 157 for Ornua, 155 for Us And Them and 153 for Destrier.
Whilst the form of this renewal is nothing out of the ordinary, it has led to upgrades for some other 2m novice chasers. The Arkle form was boosted by Us And Them (2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) amongst others, and the winner of that race, Duc De Genievres, has been raised to a figure of 164. He remains the highest rated 2m novice of the season so far.
The second highest-rated novice at the distance is Le Richebourg. He’s beaten Us And Them twice in Grade 1 races in Ireland this season and has been raised to 159. A setback meant that he wasn’t able to run at either Cheltenham or Aintree. The performances of Ornua and Kalshnikov also give a boost to the form of Dynamite Dollars who has been raised to a figure of 157. He was another who had to miss both Cheltenham and Aintree but his form from earlier in the campaign now has a very solid look to it and he remains a promising horse for next season.
[h=4]If The Cap Fits edges Liverpool Hurdle thriller[/h][h=4][/h]Andrew Mealor assesses the two Grade 1 races in the staying hurdle division…
The Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle on Saturday provided a cracking three-way finish, with little more than a neck separating If The Cap Fits and the mares Roksana and Apple’s Jade at the line, though from a handicapper’s viewpoint it’s somewhat ironic that the best finish of the meeting came in a non-handicap!
With Paisley Park absent and Sam Spinner clearly not at his best, it arguably wasn’t the strongest of renewals in terms of top-level stayers. Apple’s Jade – in receipt of 7 lb from the males in the field – stood out on form beforehand, and it’s likely that she was a fair way off her best form for all she went so close. She jumped right at several flights but kept responding and was edged out only close home.
Historical race standards point to a figure in the mid-160s for the winner, though pre-race standards (which looks at the levels of the principals beforehand) suggests lower, as does the proximity of outsider Lord Napier in fifth, the latter having achieved a peak figure of 145 when winning a well-contested handicap at Sandown two starts back. As such, I settled on a figure of 160 for If The Cap Fits, which is still a big improvement on his pre-race 152 and very close to what the previous two winners of the race achieved. He did very well to prevail in truth having made a bad blunder at the last and then had to squeeze through a narrow gap to lead in the final strides, and some extra credit has been incorporated into that figure.
Roksana (up 3 lb to 151) has also run a career best, and her effort paid a clear compliment to Benie Des Dieux who would have beaten her comfortably in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham but for falling at the last.
If The Cap Fits still has a fair bit of ground to make up on division leader Paisley Park (168), though the fact this was his first run at 3m added to the impression that he did well to win as the race went, suggests he may have more to offer as a stayer next season.
The Doom Bar Sefton for the 3m novices was a bit easier to assess and favourite Champ (152) didn’t need to improve on his previous best form to prevail. In a race that was steadily run and tested speed as much as stamina, Champ settled surprisingly well up in trip and proved too quick for his rivals having travelled strongly to the last. Runner-up Emitom (up 3 lb to 147) enhanced his reputation up in grade by staying on to finish seven lengths clear of the rest, and he’s another whose best days look ahead of him.
[h=4]Felix bounces back[/h][h=4][/h]Felix Desjy was a fine winner of Aintree’s Grade 1 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle, leaving his Cheltenham run well behind him, writes David Dickinson.
Felix Desjy came into Cheltenham off the back of an impressive all-the-way success in Punchestown’s Grade 2 Moscow Flyer hurdle but things went wrong in the Supreme. As he lined up at the front of the pack, the eventual winner of that race, Klassical Dreams, charged the tape causing a false start. From the ensuing standing start, Felix Desjy was very slow into his stride. In the circumstances, a fifth place finish after being almost last over the first hurdle was a decent effort.
With a hood reapplied and back to his front running best on Friday, he led the field a merry dance despite a significant blunder at flight four, the first in the back straight. A rating of 154 puts him still behind Klassical Dreams but in front of the rest of last month’s Cheltenham opponents, including the third that day Itchy Feet, who never looked happy in this race and eventually finished fourth.
Cheltenham Grade 1 form was franked in the juvenile race, the Grade 1 Doom Bar Anniversary Hurdle, where Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills confirmed his status as best of the four-year-old crop. Impressive Fred Winter winner Band of Outlaws started favourite but was found out by the wet and windy conditions. My take on his run was that the extra 20 seconds the Aintree race took in comparison to Cheltenham made this more of a stamina test than Band of Outlaws would want. His best flat form came over seven furlongs and a mile.
As Fakir d’Oudairies got so close to Pentland Hills, having been beaten 11 lengths in the Supreme at Cheltenham, it does temper enthusiasm for the four-year-olds going forward. They look an able (juvenile Chief Justice took the meeting’s closing handicap) but unexceptional bunch. Given the tragedy that befell Sir Erec in the Triumph, chances are their star performer was lost.
[h=2]2019 Aintree Grand National Festival | Handicappers Blog[/h]09 Apr 19
[h=4]That’s My Boy[/h]
Willie Mullins has quickly cornered the 2018/19 staying chase division in under a month, writes Martin Greenwood…
While King George winner Clan des Obeaux and Betfair Chase winner Bristol de Mai have performed with credit in both the Gold Cup and the Betway Bowl, neither have been able to stop first Al Boum Photo and then Kemboy reaching the top of the tree.
Like Al Boum Photo, Kemboy came into the Betway Bowl with an unexposed look to him and unsurprisingly went off favourite to put his early tumble in the Gold Cup behind him. Those market signals proved correct in no uncertain fashion with Kemboy tanking along throughout while setting what appeared to be just a sensible pace. With the exception of the amiss-looking Elegant Escape, they were still well bunched turning in. That didn’t last for long, however, and when asked to assert Kemboy did so in devastating fashion, leaving his toiling rivals fighting it out for minor honours after Balko des Flos made a last-fence howler.
LostInTranslation and Robbie Power
With the horses behind making some sense – if you accept Balko des Flos coming right back to his very best form – then Kemboy looks an above-standard winner. Cue Card achieved a figure of 176 when winning this race back in 2016 and Kemboy has been credited with a similar performance. Both Bristol de Mai and Clan des Obeaux have had their ratings slightly lowered again and they are both now 171.
The following day it was the turn of the staying novices. The Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase seemed an ideal opportunity for Topofthegame to confirm his performance in the RSA and he was duly sent off odds on. However, he left the impression that Cheltenham had left its mark as he put in some sketchy jumps and never seemed to be travelling smoothly on the second circuit, merely plugging on to overhaul pacesetter Top Ville Ben close home but no match for the impressive Lostintranslation. The latter was second best on ratings going in following his second in the JLT at the Festival and he relished his first try over 3m, scoring impressively after taking over the lead in the home straight.
Given the proximity of both Top Ville Ben and Mr Whipped, it is hard to push up Lostintranslation’s rating simply on the bare form, but allowing for the style in which he scored he will be in the low 160s and above a standard winner of this race. Both he and Topofthegame should play their part in next season’s leading staying events.
Melling glory for Min[h=4]Friday’s JLT Melling Chase looked a competitive renewal beforehand with just 3 lb separating the three highest-rated horses in the race. In event, however, Min trounced his five rivals. Michael Harris assesses the performance…[/h]
Min and Ruby Walsh
Politologue and Min had fought out a close finish in the same race twelve months earlier but on this occasion Min producing a scintillating front-running display. Although keen in the early stages, he travelled strongly throughout and eased to a twenty-length success. His best effort previously this season had also come over 20f (when winning at Punchestown) and it certainly appears that this trip is now his optimum.
Historically, the last ten winners average out at 171 and pre-race standards suggest a rating in the mid-170s for Min, which makes this a clear career best. I have settled on a figure of 173, although as with all of our ratings they will be discussed and finalised in the end of season Anglo-Irish classifications.
The performance leaves a similar impression to that created by Cyrname when he won the Ascot Chase by a wide margin back in February. With both Aso and Politologue running well at Cheltenham, that form appeared to have been given a boost, however Waiting Patiently did little for it with a distant third in the Melling. It is a race I will keep an eye on going forward. Min’s performance here arguably pays a handsome compliment to Altior, who has beaten Min on all three occasions he has faced him.
In the novice division, Kalashnikov ran out a game winner on his first run over 20f in the Devenish Manifesto Grade 1. He had been shaping as though a step up in trip would suit and it certainly appears that his future lies over this trip.
The recent average for a Manifesto winner has been 158. Kalashnikov is a bit below that at 155 but is still 1 lb higher than 2018 winner Finian’s Oscar. Mengli Khan ran a fine race in defeat and is another to advertise the strength of the JLT Chase form – Lostintranslation and Kildisart both won at Aintree and in light of all those performances I have collaterally raised the level of the JLT, with Defi du Seuil now rated 162 (from 159).
[h=4]Ornua strikes gold in the Maghull[/h][h=4]The Grade 1 Doom Bar Maghull Novice’ Chase, the feature chase run over 2m during the Aintree festival, perhaps lacked a star contender but it looked a very open race and duly resulted in a close finish, writes Chris Nash…[/h]
Irish-trained runners finished first and second with Ornua beating Us And Them by one and three quarter lengths, with a further one and a quarter lengths back to Destrier in third. The last ten winners of this race range from 155 to 169 and average out at 161. Applying race standards to the result suggests the winner would have run a figure in the region of 157–159. Given my doubts about the overall strength of the race, I opted for the bottom end of that range, though even that interpretation still has the first three home all running career best figures – 157 for Ornua, 155 for Us And Them and 153 for Destrier.
Whilst the form of this renewal is nothing out of the ordinary, it has led to upgrades for some other 2m novice chasers. The Arkle form was boosted by Us And Them (2[SUP]nd[/SUP]) amongst others, and the winner of that race, Duc De Genievres, has been raised to a figure of 164. He remains the highest rated 2m novice of the season so far.
The second highest-rated novice at the distance is Le Richebourg. He’s beaten Us And Them twice in Grade 1 races in Ireland this season and has been raised to 159. A setback meant that he wasn’t able to run at either Cheltenham or Aintree. The performances of Ornua and Kalshnikov also give a boost to the form of Dynamite Dollars who has been raised to a figure of 157. He was another who had to miss both Cheltenham and Aintree but his form from earlier in the campaign now has a very solid look to it and he remains a promising horse for next season.
[h=4]If The Cap Fits edges Liverpool Hurdle thriller[/h][h=4][/h]Andrew Mealor assesses the two Grade 1 races in the staying hurdle division…
The Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle on Saturday provided a cracking three-way finish, with little more than a neck separating If The Cap Fits and the mares Roksana and Apple’s Jade at the line, though from a handicapper’s viewpoint it’s somewhat ironic that the best finish of the meeting came in a non-handicap!
With Paisley Park absent and Sam Spinner clearly not at his best, it arguably wasn’t the strongest of renewals in terms of top-level stayers. Apple’s Jade – in receipt of 7 lb from the males in the field – stood out on form beforehand, and it’s likely that she was a fair way off her best form for all she went so close. She jumped right at several flights but kept responding and was edged out only close home.
Historical race standards point to a figure in the mid-160s for the winner, though pre-race standards (which looks at the levels of the principals beforehand) suggests lower, as does the proximity of outsider Lord Napier in fifth, the latter having achieved a peak figure of 145 when winning a well-contested handicap at Sandown two starts back. As such, I settled on a figure of 160 for If The Cap Fits, which is still a big improvement on his pre-race 152 and very close to what the previous two winners of the race achieved. He did very well to prevail in truth having made a bad blunder at the last and then had to squeeze through a narrow gap to lead in the final strides, and some extra credit has been incorporated into that figure.
Roksana (up 3 lb to 151) has also run a career best, and her effort paid a clear compliment to Benie Des Dieux who would have beaten her comfortably in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham but for falling at the last.
If The Cap Fits still has a fair bit of ground to make up on division leader Paisley Park (168), though the fact this was his first run at 3m added to the impression that he did well to win as the race went, suggests he may have more to offer as a stayer next season.
The Doom Bar Sefton for the 3m novices was a bit easier to assess and favourite Champ (152) didn’t need to improve on his previous best form to prevail. In a race that was steadily run and tested speed as much as stamina, Champ settled surprisingly well up in trip and proved too quick for his rivals having travelled strongly to the last. Runner-up Emitom (up 3 lb to 147) enhanced his reputation up in grade by staying on to finish seven lengths clear of the rest, and he’s another whose best days look ahead of him.
[h=4]Felix bounces back[/h][h=4][/h]Felix Desjy was a fine winner of Aintree’s Grade 1 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle, leaving his Cheltenham run well behind him, writes David Dickinson.
Felix Desjy came into Cheltenham off the back of an impressive all-the-way success in Punchestown’s Grade 2 Moscow Flyer hurdle but things went wrong in the Supreme. As he lined up at the front of the pack, the eventual winner of that race, Klassical Dreams, charged the tape causing a false start. From the ensuing standing start, Felix Desjy was very slow into his stride. In the circumstances, a fifth place finish after being almost last over the first hurdle was a decent effort.
With a hood reapplied and back to his front running best on Friday, he led the field a merry dance despite a significant blunder at flight four, the first in the back straight. A rating of 154 puts him still behind Klassical Dreams but in front of the rest of last month’s Cheltenham opponents, including the third that day Itchy Feet, who never looked happy in this race and eventually finished fourth.
Cheltenham Grade 1 form was franked in the juvenile race, the Grade 1 Doom Bar Anniversary Hurdle, where Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills confirmed his status as best of the four-year-old crop. Impressive Fred Winter winner Band of Outlaws started favourite but was found out by the wet and windy conditions. My take on his run was that the extra 20 seconds the Aintree race took in comparison to Cheltenham made this more of a stamina test than Band of Outlaws would want. His best flat form came over seven furlongs and a mile.
As Fakir d’Oudairies got so close to Pentland Hills, having been beaten 11 lengths in the Supreme at Cheltenham, it does temper enthusiasm for the four-year-olds going forward. They look an able (juvenile Chief Justice took the meeting’s closing handicap) but unexceptional bunch. Given the tragedy that befell Sir Erec in the Triumph, chances are their star performer was lost.
Perpetual
At the Start
The 2019 Randox Health Grand National
09 Apr 19
DRUM ROLL…..
History was made at Aintree on Saturday when Tiger Roll became the first horse since the legendary Red Rum to win back to back Grand Nationals, writes Martin Greenwood. In doing so he has, in my view, put up the best winning performance in the last 46 years, since reliable handicapping figures became available.
One of a host of runners representing Gordon Elliot, Tiger Roll was 9lbs higher than when scoring off 150 in 2018 but was 8lb ‘well in’ following his runaway success in last month’s Glanfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham.
Sent off one of the shortest favourites in history of the race, there was hardly any moment in the race in which he didn’t look likely to justifying that support, maybe the stumble he made at the fourth last notwithstanding. Tanking throughout, he was still hard held jumping the last and only came under some sort of ride passing the elbow. His winning distance bore no relation to his superiority in my opinion and the extra 8lbs he was due to carry would not have stopped him.
I personally can’t remember a horse going as well as that for so long after decades of watching the National. At the finish, five lengths covered the first three home and both Magic of Light (a personal best) and Rathvinden (also due to be 8lbs higher following his win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse) ran magnificent races especially given they both made numerous bad mistakes.
This trio finished clear of the nearest GB challenger Walk in the Mill with last year’s fourth Anibale Fly (another 8lb well in following his excellent run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) just behind in fifth.
Using what I knew about the form since the weights closed back in February then the logical way to look at this race would be to take a positive view of the front three. Despite not quite having Rathvinden running to his new mark of 162, Magic of Light is now 159 (from the 151 she ran off) and is clearly a very talented mare, while the mighty Tiger is now 172, which only allows 2lb for the ‘style’ of his victory given his bare form suggests 170. This figure would have him second in this season’s Gold Cup and Betway Bowl.
I must stress, I think 172 could still underestimate him and ever since he reappeared in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan in February (a clear personal best in that discipline), Tiger Roll has looked a different horse which is remarkable given he has been on the go since 2013 and is great testament to his trainer.
After thorough research which has involved help from the Racing Post’s John Randall, my predecessor Phil Smith and my former Timeform colleagues Dave Cleary and Dave Yates…many thanks to all….I wanted to get some sort of order of the very best Grand National performances. Given Timeform didn’t start keeping regular jump ratings until around Red Rum’s first National win in 1973, and official ratings didn’t exist as they do today, I feel 1973 onwards is an ideal date to start. Anything else prior to that is going to be very difficult to compare. I am suggesting that Tiger Roll has put up the best winning performance in any National from 1973 to present, beating Many Clouds (167) in 2015 and Neptune Collonges (168) in 2012. It also trumps Suny Bay’s second (beaten 11 lengths by Earth Summit, conceding him 23lb) off an official 170 in 1998. Using a Timeform-based assessment of the 1970’s it would suggest Red Rum was never higher than 166, L’Escargot 161 when winning his National, while Crisp was rated 173 when a gallant second in 1973.
None of this should detract from any of the excellent performances over the last 46 years and the legendary status of the likes of Red Rum, L’Escargot and others should quite rightly be kept, but simply on ability based on handicapping I suggest that Tiger Roll heads the pecking order and is also in the same ballpark as Crisp, who let’s not forget gave 23 lbs to Red Rum.
09 Apr 19
DRUM ROLL…..
History was made at Aintree on Saturday when Tiger Roll became the first horse since the legendary Red Rum to win back to back Grand Nationals, writes Martin Greenwood. In doing so he has, in my view, put up the best winning performance in the last 46 years, since reliable handicapping figures became available.
One of a host of runners representing Gordon Elliot, Tiger Roll was 9lbs higher than when scoring off 150 in 2018 but was 8lb ‘well in’ following his runaway success in last month’s Glanfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham.
Sent off one of the shortest favourites in history of the race, there was hardly any moment in the race in which he didn’t look likely to justifying that support, maybe the stumble he made at the fourth last notwithstanding. Tanking throughout, he was still hard held jumping the last and only came under some sort of ride passing the elbow. His winning distance bore no relation to his superiority in my opinion and the extra 8lbs he was due to carry would not have stopped him.
I personally can’t remember a horse going as well as that for so long after decades of watching the National. At the finish, five lengths covered the first three home and both Magic of Light (a personal best) and Rathvinden (also due to be 8lbs higher following his win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse) ran magnificent races especially given they both made numerous bad mistakes.
This trio finished clear of the nearest GB challenger Walk in the Mill with last year’s fourth Anibale Fly (another 8lb well in following his excellent run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) just behind in fifth.
Using what I knew about the form since the weights closed back in February then the logical way to look at this race would be to take a positive view of the front three. Despite not quite having Rathvinden running to his new mark of 162, Magic of Light is now 159 (from the 151 she ran off) and is clearly a very talented mare, while the mighty Tiger is now 172, which only allows 2lb for the ‘style’ of his victory given his bare form suggests 170. This figure would have him second in this season’s Gold Cup and Betway Bowl.
I must stress, I think 172 could still underestimate him and ever since he reappeared in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan in February (a clear personal best in that discipline), Tiger Roll has looked a different horse which is remarkable given he has been on the go since 2013 and is great testament to his trainer.
After thorough research which has involved help from the Racing Post’s John Randall, my predecessor Phil Smith and my former Timeform colleagues Dave Cleary and Dave Yates…many thanks to all….I wanted to get some sort of order of the very best Grand National performances. Given Timeform didn’t start keeping regular jump ratings until around Red Rum’s first National win in 1973, and official ratings didn’t exist as they do today, I feel 1973 onwards is an ideal date to start. Anything else prior to that is going to be very difficult to compare. I am suggesting that Tiger Roll has put up the best winning performance in any National from 1973 to present, beating Many Clouds (167) in 2015 and Neptune Collonges (168) in 2012. It also trumps Suny Bay’s second (beaten 11 lengths by Earth Summit, conceding him 23lb) off an official 170 in 1998. Using a Timeform-based assessment of the 1970’s it would suggest Red Rum was never higher than 166, L’Escargot 161 when winning his National, while Crisp was rated 173 when a gallant second in 1973.
None of this should detract from any of the excellent performances over the last 46 years and the legendary status of the likes of Red Rum, L’Escargot and others should quite rightly be kept, but simply on ability based on handicapping I suggest that Tiger Roll heads the pecking order and is also in the same ballpark as Crisp, who let’s not forget gave 23 lbs to Red Rum.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,009
Utter pish. Either that or he hasn't started shaving yet.
Last edited:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
https://www.racingpost.com/results/32/aintree/1992-04-04/45936
Carvill's Hill beat PP by 20L giving him 19 lbs in the Welsh Nash.
Carvill's Hill beat PP by 20L giving him 19 lbs in the Welsh Nash.
G-G
Senior Jockey
Only gone up 3........Hoping it's not Ayr on Saturday as logistically can get there but the credit card won't like it.
Well gone up another 7 without even running. Miss Thicky here again but I think that shouldn't be allowed. They thought the win was only worth an increase of 3, then the horse he beat runs 5th at Cheltenham, so he goes up another 7. No wait that can't be right - you thought his win wasn't that good on that day, so that's that surely?
He has a 5 day for Perth on Wednesday - really hoping it's like a road up there and he doesn't run because HE WILL NEVER STAY 3 MILES!!! Are you MAD???? Never in a million years. Never, never, never, EVVVERR!!
Well gone up another 7 without even running. Miss Thicky here again but I think that shouldn't be allowed. They thought the win was only worth an increase of 3, then the horse he beat runs 5th at Cheltenham, so he goes up another 7. No wait that can't be right - you thought his win wasn't that good on that day, so that's that surely?
!
I did warn you GG that win could be taken very harshly indeed on ratings and the Handicapper was surprisingly lenient on your fella to begin with. Its not just coolany running well at Chelters that got your boy bumped up. The third has won two hurdle races since and is now rated 135 and the 4th has also come out and won his only hurdle race since and they've been beaten by your fella by nearly 8 and 12 lengths respectively so according to that race you've beaten a 142 rated horse who without Garrity's claim you'd only be recieving 6lb if they met again in a Handicap even though Coolany has had his mark lowered you'd still meet on 5lb better terms than what you've already beaten him off. There is a horse 8 lengths back who's now rated 135 who without jockey claims, you were on level weights with. In other words even now your boy has been put up 10lb in total if he met theatre legend again he'd be 8lb better off having beaten him 8 lengths last time they met. The 4th place horse is now rated 125 who again without claims he faced at level weights and he'd only have to give him 4lb for a 12 length beating if they met again.
So although initially it may feel like a bit of a kick in the lady parts GG your baby has still been treated fairly well overall and the upside is if how the form has worked out is correct little Munro might have another few good days ahead of him.
Best of luck GG.
2020 Champion hurdle dream lives on
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G-G
Senior Jockey
Wow Danny!! Thank you.
This is all a bit scary, 'cos no matter how much I love him, can't still believe he has done what he has so far, and could he really be this decent? Okay not Superstar status obviously, except to me, but the fact he has done so well already is just stunning.
This sort of analysis is what I really admire as apart from I don't have time to do it, aside from looking after his muppet brother, currently nursing a swollen knee...one vet says do this....another vet says no don't do that - but Brodie still running round the field as if he was in a 2m 3 at Cheltenham, not helping - it's a constantly shifting picture and keeping up with it all.
A friend who understands this thought the small initial rise was because of the horse in 3rd, but as you say, now BBB has been put up because he has come out and won.
I would hold your bets for next year!! Not sure they will stay hurdling - he's very tall and not the greatest hurdler, costs himself ground by landing on four feet a couple of times during a race - last fence at Wetherby last time case in point, didn't get a good jump but had enough left. Every one says he is very willing. Just wish he would not get so fizzy at the start and drop his head a bit and the hood not helping I think. Has a 2m 4f at Perth for Friday, I would think that's more him right now but will depend on the ground.
Just a by the way, they call him Basil - obvious reasons - but he will always be Rowley to me
Thank you.This is all a bit scary, 'cos no matter how much I love him, can't still believe he has done what he has so far, and could he really be this decent? Okay not Superstar status obviously, except to me, but the fact he has done so well already is just stunning.
This sort of analysis is what I really admire as apart from I don't have time to do it, aside from looking after his muppet brother, currently nursing a swollen knee...one vet says do this....another vet says no don't do that - but Brodie still running round the field as if he was in a 2m 3 at Cheltenham, not helping - it's a constantly shifting picture and keeping up with it all.
A friend who understands this thought the small initial rise was because of the horse in 3rd, but as you say, now BBB has been put up because he has come out and won.
I would hold your bets for next year!! Not sure they will stay hurdling - he's very tall and not the greatest hurdler, costs himself ground by landing on four feet a couple of times during a race - last fence at Wetherby last time case in point, didn't get a good jump but had enough left. Every one says he is very willing. Just wish he would not get so fizzy at the start and drop his head a bit and the hood not helping I think. Has a 2m 4f at Perth for Friday, I would think that's more him right now but will depend on the ground.
Just a by the way, they call him Basil - obvious reasons - but he will always be Rowley to me
G-G
Senior Jockey
Apologies - but everyone please keep your fingers crossed for a safe trip above anything else , as would really helped if it p**d down all night at least and hope they let their heads rule their hearts if it doesn't - for tomorrow at Perth. Really upset that can't be there, but just hope he comes home safe. Will be fretting and screaming head off in a bookies.
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G-G
Senior Jockey
Thanks Danny - seriously worried about the ground - think they have entered for the sake of getting a run before the 'season' is over. If the rain doesn't come, hope they pull him.
His 'lickle' brother goes off to be backed on Sunday- not sure how he's going to handle being separated from his mates and his 'nanny'. I know already I am going to cry when I have to leave him, Miss Pathetic here
G-G
Senior Jockey
Well he's okay which is the main thing, but have to say I can't help but be disappointed. More rain would have helped but he started hanging his head 4 hurdles out, and think it might have helped if he had been tucked in for longer and not come round what was the outside and waited for longer in the straight. From 3 hurdles out I was screaming at the screen ' wait Billy, wait'. Ground not his preference despite the change in going, first time right handed....... really think they should get rid of the hood, it just seems to annoy him before the start and not help during the race. I know I shouldn't be down but ....... he jumped much better which was a huge plus to come out of it and he is fine. Off on his summer hols now. Sorry if anyone backed him.
Just watched the replay, for what its worth GG I haven't seen the figures for the race but it looked like they went and honest enough gallop and he still looked very keen I'd still be inclined to think he wants dropping back in trip I'm sure if he ran back at 2 miles but got a strong gallop to help him settle he'd probably win another race or two. Tbh I wouldn't be downhearted with that performance the front 3 have pulled miles clear so he's a proper little horse and hopefully we can have some right fun following his adventures next season
Perpetual
At the Start
Kemboy tops 2018/19 Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification
23 May 2019 BHA Features Racing/Fixtures
2019 Coral Punchestown Gold Cup winner Kemboy has been announced as the highest-rated Jumps horse of the 2018/19 season at the annual Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications press conference today, hosted at Sandown Park by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) and Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board (IHRB).
Kemboy’s two-length defeat of Al Boum Photo (175) at Punchestown earned him a rating of 177, the highest awarded since Don Cossack in the 2015-16 season.
Dual Champion Chase hero Altior (175) gained top honours in the two-mile division after another dominant campaign over fences, whilst Cyrname’s win in the Betfair Ascot Chase in February (176) making him the top-rated chaser over two-and-a-half miles.
Another impressive Punchestown winner topped the novice chasers in the shape of Chacun Pour Soi (167), with JLT Novices’ Chase winner Defi du Seuil (162) and Paul Nicholls’ Topofthegame (164) leading the intermediate and staying divisions respectively.
Espoir d’Allen’s Unibet Champion Hurdle victory earned him a rating of 170, a pound clear of leading staying hurdler Paisley Park (169) with Apple’s Jade (163) on top at intermediate distances.
Victories at Cheltenham for Klassical Dream (160), City Island (153) and Minella Indo (153) saw them top the respective classifications for novice and juvenile hurdlers, with the progressive Pentland Hills (153) ending the season as the top rated four-year-old.
Martin Greenwood, Steeplechase Team Leader, said:
“Kemboy at 177 is the highest rated chaser in 2018/19 following his defeat of Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo (175) in the Coral Punchestown Gold Cup. Both horses are only seven years of age and there is no reason why they both can’t continue to improve.
Tiger Roll (172) is the third highest Chaser in the staying division and is immortalised in the history books following his superb second consecutive Randox Health Grand National victory.
“A strong staying novice division was headed by Topfothegame (164), who beat Santini and Delta Work (both 163) in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, with Aintree scorer Lostintranslation (161) not far behind. This quartet all look capable of making their mark in the top staying events next season.”
Michael Harris, steeplechase handicapper, said:
“For the second year in succession the champion in the 2-and-a-half-mile division has earnt their rating in winning the Betfair Ascot Chase. Cyrname (176) produced a scintillating display with one of the most dominant Grade 1 performances in recent years on his final run of the season in February. He is the highest rated horse in Britain and is set to be aimed at the King George next season in what could prove a vintage renewal.
“In the novice division, Defi du Seuil (162) led a strong crop with A Plus Tard (161) both achieving a rating higher than last season’s champion Al Boum Photo (159). He clearly left that form behind this year and there would be no reason to think this year’s novices have reached their peak yet either.”
Chris Nash, steeplechase handicapper, said:“Champion Chase winner Altior led the two-mile chase division after his fourth successive unbeaten season over obstacles. His rating of 175 matches what he achieved last season and his victory in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December was arguably his most solid piece of form. He is likely to be stepped up in distance next year and it will be fascinating to see what he can achieve.
“The two-mile novice chase division saw its champion crowned very late in the season when Chacun Pour Soi beat four previous Grade 1 novice chase winners (including the afore mentioned Defi du Seuil) in winning the Ryanair Chase at Punchestown. His figure of 167 has him as the leading novice chaser of the season. He’s only had seven career starts so far and just three over fences so he has plenty of room to progress next season.
“If Altior does step up in distance Chacun Pour Soi may well become the horse to beat in the top-level two-mile chases.”
Andrew Mealor, Hurdle Team Leader, said:“Paisley Park went unbeaten in five runs in the 2018/19 season and was clearly the dominant force in the staying division. He ends the year on a rating of 169 on the back of two top-class performances at Cheltenham, a wide-margin success in the Cleeve Hurdle followed by a clear-cut win over Sam Spinner (164) and Faugheen (160) in the Stayers’ Hurdle.
Although a few lbs shy of the likes of Big Buck’s and Thistlecrack (both 174) as things stand, he has plenty of time on his side as a 7yo and may yet have a bigger performance in him.
“The winners of the two staying novice events at Cheltenham, City Island and Minella Indo (both 153), both topped their respective novice divisions, and they along with fellow novice Champ (153) and Aintree winner If The Cap Fits (160) will hopefully provide some new opposition to Paisley Park in the 2019/20 season.”
David Dickinson, hurdle handicapper, said:
“The 2019 Unibet Champion Hurdle produced a surprise, wide margin winner in the five year old Espoir d’Allen. That none of the market leaders ran to their best makes any figure for the winner the subject of some conjecture and in rating him 170, through the handicap form of Silver Streak, it puts him midway between the highest 176 and lowest 164 of Champion Hurdle winners in the history of the Classifications.
“Buveur d’Air fell that day but he started his season impressively beating Samcro in Newcastle’s Betvictor Fighting Fifth and this performance is rated the equal of his best ever two mile hurdle run on 167. The novices Klassical Dream 160, Getaway Trump 155, and Pentland Hills 153 could all develop into worthy opponents for the established Champion contenders next season.”
23 May 2019 BHA Features Racing/Fixtures
2019 Coral Punchestown Gold Cup winner Kemboy has been announced as the highest-rated Jumps horse of the 2018/19 season at the annual Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications press conference today, hosted at Sandown Park by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) and Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board (IHRB).
Kemboy’s two-length defeat of Al Boum Photo (175) at Punchestown earned him a rating of 177, the highest awarded since Don Cossack in the 2015-16 season.
Dual Champion Chase hero Altior (175) gained top honours in the two-mile division after another dominant campaign over fences, whilst Cyrname’s win in the Betfair Ascot Chase in February (176) making him the top-rated chaser over two-and-a-half miles.
Another impressive Punchestown winner topped the novice chasers in the shape of Chacun Pour Soi (167), with JLT Novices’ Chase winner Defi du Seuil (162) and Paul Nicholls’ Topofthegame (164) leading the intermediate and staying divisions respectively.
Espoir d’Allen’s Unibet Champion Hurdle victory earned him a rating of 170, a pound clear of leading staying hurdler Paisley Park (169) with Apple’s Jade (163) on top at intermediate distances.
Victories at Cheltenham for Klassical Dream (160), City Island (153) and Minella Indo (153) saw them top the respective classifications for novice and juvenile hurdlers, with the progressive Pentland Hills (153) ending the season as the top rated four-year-old.
Martin Greenwood, Steeplechase Team Leader, said:
“Kemboy at 177 is the highest rated chaser in 2018/19 following his defeat of Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo (175) in the Coral Punchestown Gold Cup. Both horses are only seven years of age and there is no reason why they both can’t continue to improve.
Tiger Roll (172) is the third highest Chaser in the staying division and is immortalised in the history books following his superb second consecutive Randox Health Grand National victory.
“A strong staying novice division was headed by Topfothegame (164), who beat Santini and Delta Work (both 163) in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, with Aintree scorer Lostintranslation (161) not far behind. This quartet all look capable of making their mark in the top staying events next season.”
Michael Harris, steeplechase handicapper, said:
“For the second year in succession the champion in the 2-and-a-half-mile division has earnt their rating in winning the Betfair Ascot Chase. Cyrname (176) produced a scintillating display with one of the most dominant Grade 1 performances in recent years on his final run of the season in February. He is the highest rated horse in Britain and is set to be aimed at the King George next season in what could prove a vintage renewal.
“In the novice division, Defi du Seuil (162) led a strong crop with A Plus Tard (161) both achieving a rating higher than last season’s champion Al Boum Photo (159). He clearly left that form behind this year and there would be no reason to think this year’s novices have reached their peak yet either.”
Chris Nash, steeplechase handicapper, said:“Champion Chase winner Altior led the two-mile chase division after his fourth successive unbeaten season over obstacles. His rating of 175 matches what he achieved last season and his victory in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December was arguably his most solid piece of form. He is likely to be stepped up in distance next year and it will be fascinating to see what he can achieve.
“The two-mile novice chase division saw its champion crowned very late in the season when Chacun Pour Soi beat four previous Grade 1 novice chase winners (including the afore mentioned Defi du Seuil) in winning the Ryanair Chase at Punchestown. His figure of 167 has him as the leading novice chaser of the season. He’s only had seven career starts so far and just three over fences so he has plenty of room to progress next season.
“If Altior does step up in distance Chacun Pour Soi may well become the horse to beat in the top-level two-mile chases.”
Andrew Mealor, Hurdle Team Leader, said:“Paisley Park went unbeaten in five runs in the 2018/19 season and was clearly the dominant force in the staying division. He ends the year on a rating of 169 on the back of two top-class performances at Cheltenham, a wide-margin success in the Cleeve Hurdle followed by a clear-cut win over Sam Spinner (164) and Faugheen (160) in the Stayers’ Hurdle.
Although a few lbs shy of the likes of Big Buck’s and Thistlecrack (both 174) as things stand, he has plenty of time on his side as a 7yo and may yet have a bigger performance in him.
“The winners of the two staying novice events at Cheltenham, City Island and Minella Indo (both 153), both topped their respective novice divisions, and they along with fellow novice Champ (153) and Aintree winner If The Cap Fits (160) will hopefully provide some new opposition to Paisley Park in the 2019/20 season.”
David Dickinson, hurdle handicapper, said:
“The 2019 Unibet Champion Hurdle produced a surprise, wide margin winner in the five year old Espoir d’Allen. That none of the market leaders ran to their best makes any figure for the winner the subject of some conjecture and in rating him 170, through the handicap form of Silver Streak, it puts him midway between the highest 176 and lowest 164 of Champion Hurdle winners in the history of the Classifications.
“Buveur d’Air fell that day but he started his season impressively beating Samcro in Newcastle’s Betvictor Fighting Fifth and this performance is rated the equal of his best ever two mile hurdle run on 167. The novices Klassical Dream 160, Getaway Trump 155, and Pentland Hills 153 could all develop into worthy opponents for the established Champion contenders next season.”
granger
Senior Jockey
How does the handicapper look at next years national?
Lump Tiger Roll accordingly or give him a chance of history
Lump Tiger Roll accordingly or give him a chance of history
Perpetual
At the Start
Based on the last few years, I think he'll be given a chance at the weights
granger
Senior Jockey
I do too - He will be the story of the season
simmo
Senior Jockey
Surely he has to have top weight regardless of what else runs.
Perpetual
At the Start
I'm sure he will, but currently only Kemboy and Al Boum Photo are rated higher and cant see either of them running
The biggest blocker is probably O'Leary, but think he'll have to let him take a chance if fit and well
The biggest blocker is probably O'Leary, but think he'll have to let him take a chance if fit and well
Perpetual
At the Start
Investec Derby Festival 2019 | Handicappers Blog
04 Jun 19
Seventh heaven for O’Brien
Mark Olley breaks down the Group 1 action from Epsom, starting with a record-equalling seventh Derby success for Aidan O’Brien courtesy of Anthony Van Dyck…
The 2019 Investec Derby had an incredibly open look to it pre-race, both on official ratings where just 5 lbs separated the top six contenders, and in the betting where Sir Dragonet was sent off the 11/4 favourite. This resulted in a thrilling race where just 0.6 of a length separated the first five home.
Anthony Van Dyck was rated 118 as a two-year-old, when successful at Group 2 level and placed twice in Group 1 races (second in the National Stakes and third in the Dewhurst). Having run seven times as a juvenile, including a trip to America for the Breeders’ Cup, he was nothing if not battle hardened and this toughness stood him in good stead on Saturday where he came up against some less experienced rivals. The sectional times for the Derby suggest he used his energy in an optimum manner and in rating his winning performance at 118 I believe he didn’t need to improve upon his two-year-old form.
To put that figure into context, Wings Of Eagles (2017) and Ruler Of The World (2013) were rated 119 when coming out on top in similarly tight finishes and they were previously the lowest performances in the Derby this century.
Madhmoon had finished fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket last month and it could be argued that he was a slightly unlucky loser at Epsom. Towards the rear when stumbling slightly coming round Tattenham Corner, that seemed to galvanise him into action (made a sweeping move) and he ran the fastest two furlongs of any horse at any stage of the race. He clearly didn’t expend his energy as evenly through the race as Anthony Van Dyck and that may ultimately have been the difference. He emerges with a rating of 117, the same as Japan, Broome and Sir Dragonet who all finished upsides.
As the first six home are all trained in Ireland the job of publishing official ratings fall to my Irish colleague Garry O’Gorman and he has confirmed the above figures.
The previous afternoon’s Investec Oaks was won by Anapurna who, like Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, had won her trial at Lingfield and completed a notable classic double for the Surrey venue.
Comparisons with Anthony Van Dyck don’t stop there as sectional times for the Oaks suggest she also ran an optimal race. She is clearly a fast improving filly and her new rating of 113 matches the five-year race standard. Was and Casual Look were also rated 113 when winning in 2012 and 2003 respectively.
There were interesting aspects to the performances of several of the beaten horses. Runner-up Pink Dogwood ran an exceptionally fast furlong split with three furlongs to run. It took her into the lead but she couldn’t quite hold off Anapurna late on, the latter having run a more evenly paced race.
Fleeting found herself a long way off the lead and like Pink Dogwood really accelerated with three furlongs to run. She ran the fastest final furlong but the front two were just beyond her reach. Both of these Aidan O’Brien-trained fillies clearly have abundant talent and I would be surprised if they don’t win major races.
Another filly worth mentioning is Mehdaayih who was supplemented for the race after running away with the Listed Cheshire Oaks. She endured a nightmare run up the straight, notably when hampered over a furlong out, and must be given another chance.
The Investec Coronation Cup was also run on Friday and Defoe gained a deserved first Group 1 success. Salouen, who went so close to beating Cracksman in this race last year, and Communique pestered each other for the lead and this set things up for the more conservatively ridden pair of Defoe and Kew Gardens. Kew Gardens (120) won last year’s St Leger over 14f and when he hit the front entering the final furlong I didn’t expect to see him outstayed, but Defoe had gone an even pace throughout and that meant he finished best of all. His new rating of 118 is a career best.
Kew Garden’s rating comes from his St Leger win and his efforts around a mile and a half are more in line with the 117 I have him performing to here.
04 Jun 19
Seventh heaven for O’Brien
Mark Olley breaks down the Group 1 action from Epsom, starting with a record-equalling seventh Derby success for Aidan O’Brien courtesy of Anthony Van Dyck…
The 2019 Investec Derby had an incredibly open look to it pre-race, both on official ratings where just 5 lbs separated the top six contenders, and in the betting where Sir Dragonet was sent off the 11/4 favourite. This resulted in a thrilling race where just 0.6 of a length separated the first five home.
Anthony Van Dyck was rated 118 as a two-year-old, when successful at Group 2 level and placed twice in Group 1 races (second in the National Stakes and third in the Dewhurst). Having run seven times as a juvenile, including a trip to America for the Breeders’ Cup, he was nothing if not battle hardened and this toughness stood him in good stead on Saturday where he came up against some less experienced rivals. The sectional times for the Derby suggest he used his energy in an optimum manner and in rating his winning performance at 118 I believe he didn’t need to improve upon his two-year-old form.
To put that figure into context, Wings Of Eagles (2017) and Ruler Of The World (2013) were rated 119 when coming out on top in similarly tight finishes and they were previously the lowest performances in the Derby this century.
Madhmoon had finished fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket last month and it could be argued that he was a slightly unlucky loser at Epsom. Towards the rear when stumbling slightly coming round Tattenham Corner, that seemed to galvanise him into action (made a sweeping move) and he ran the fastest two furlongs of any horse at any stage of the race. He clearly didn’t expend his energy as evenly through the race as Anthony Van Dyck and that may ultimately have been the difference. He emerges with a rating of 117, the same as Japan, Broome and Sir Dragonet who all finished upsides.
As the first six home are all trained in Ireland the job of publishing official ratings fall to my Irish colleague Garry O’Gorman and he has confirmed the above figures.
The previous afternoon’s Investec Oaks was won by Anapurna who, like Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, had won her trial at Lingfield and completed a notable classic double for the Surrey venue.
Comparisons with Anthony Van Dyck don’t stop there as sectional times for the Oaks suggest she also ran an optimal race. She is clearly a fast improving filly and her new rating of 113 matches the five-year race standard. Was and Casual Look were also rated 113 when winning in 2012 and 2003 respectively.
There were interesting aspects to the performances of several of the beaten horses. Runner-up Pink Dogwood ran an exceptionally fast furlong split with three furlongs to run. It took her into the lead but she couldn’t quite hold off Anapurna late on, the latter having run a more evenly paced race.
Fleeting found herself a long way off the lead and like Pink Dogwood really accelerated with three furlongs to run. She ran the fastest final furlong but the front two were just beyond her reach. Both of these Aidan O’Brien-trained fillies clearly have abundant talent and I would be surprised if they don’t win major races.
Another filly worth mentioning is Mehdaayih who was supplemented for the race after running away with the Listed Cheshire Oaks. She endured a nightmare run up the straight, notably when hampered over a furlong out, and must be given another chance.
The Investec Coronation Cup was also run on Friday and Defoe gained a deserved first Group 1 success. Salouen, who went so close to beating Cracksman in this race last year, and Communique pestered each other for the lead and this set things up for the more conservatively ridden pair of Defoe and Kew Gardens. Kew Gardens (120) won last year’s St Leger over 14f and when he hit the front entering the final furlong I didn’t expect to see him outstayed, but Defoe had gone an even pace throughout and that meant he finished best of all. His new rating of 118 is a career best.
Kew Garden’s rating comes from his St Leger win and his efforts around a mile and a half are more in line with the 117 I have him performing to here.
Perpetual
At the Start
2019 Royal Ascot Handicappers Blog
25 Jun 19
Blue is King once more
In landing both Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot Blue Point bookended the 2019 Royal Meeting with two stellar performances. Stewart Copeland expands on his win in the Diamond Jubilee inthe next section, but firstly 5f handicapper Chris Nash assesses what he achieved in the King’s Stand…
The only 5f race open to older horses at the Royal meeting is the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. The first three from the 2018 renewal returned to do battle and they all but produced the same result. In 2018 Blue Point beat Battaash by one and three quarter lengths with a further neck back to Mabs Cross in third. This time around Blue Point again took the prize but on this occasion there was one and a quarter lengths back to Battaash in second, with a further one and a half lengths to Soldier’s Call in third. Mabs Cross was just a nose behind him in fourth.
The last ten winners of this race range from 113 to 125 (the stunning effort of Lady Aurelia in 2017 with her fillies allowance added back in) and the average winner comes out at 118. Applying race standards to the 2019 renewal suggests a figure between 117 and 119 for Blue Point. However, I’m happy to be plenty above that range as those figures are held back by a couple of moderate renewals in 2015 and 2016 where the winners (Goldream and Profitable) only recorded figures of 113. I’m sure that we are in a far better age of 5f sprinting at the minute.
I decided to rate Blue Point 123 which equates to a career best. This has Battaash running to 119, Soldier’s Call running to 114 (which matches his previous career best) and Mabs Cross running to 111 (a few pounds below her very best).
Blue Point went into the King’s Stand rated 120, 3 lb behind the 123-rated Battaash. However, given that Blue Point has now come out on top the last three times that they have met, that differential can no longer be supported. Some people might suggest that I’m slightly sitting on the fence in rating them both 123 after this race but I can’t pick the one that is the best. Battaash can be electric on his day and he looks best over a sharp 5f – if the pair met at (say) Goodwood I’d want him on my side. Stage the race at Ascot over a stiffer 5f and Blue Point would definitely appear to hold the aces.
Blue proves the point with rare double
When the phrase ‘go out on a high note’ was coined I’m not sure horse racing figured highly in the thinking but it could hardly be more apt for the career of Blue Point, writes Stewart Copeland. As I write this, news has broken that Blue Point has been retired, and he leaves the sport with many great memories for us all, not least his historic double at Royal Ascot last week.
As I tweeted last week he became the first horse since Choisir in 2003 to land the King’s Stand and Diamond Jubilee double. – and his was arguably an even more notable achievement given the King’s Stand was a Group 2 back then. It’s hard to imagine any other horse winning two Group 1 races at the same track in the same week, but I’ll leave that research to the historians out there!
What I can say for certain is that Blue Point retires with four Group 1 wins on his record, including a hat-trick of successes on his last three starts. Arguably the pick of them is his performance in this year’s King’s Stand, as outlined above. The figure of 123 allocated to him for that win ranks him right up there with some of the best British-trained sprinters we’ve seen this millennium. Only Oasis Dream and Harry Angel, both on 125, have rated higher. Let’s hope this splendid racehorse has a long and productive retirement.
As for his performance in the Diamond Jubilee I have credited him with a performance rating of 120+. In analysing the race the early fractions were strong set by Kachy, and studying the sectionals, Blue Point arguably deserves extra credit for racing closest to the aforementioned trailblazer over a test which stretches his stamina to the limit. His performance in the King’s Stand already tells us that is merited. I wrote a good while back in this blog how sectionals would aid anyone in breaking down what happens in an individual race, and the information kindly supplied again by Longines at Royal Ascot proved an invaluable help.
To highlight this let’s look at the Wokingham alongside the Diamond Jubilee. When assessing the overall time and weights carried, the races produce an identical speed rating. However the races could hardly have been run more differently. Kachy covered the first 3f in 35.69 seconds, as opposed to Watchable (who set the strongest pace in the Wokingham) in 36.85. That’s a difference of 1.16s, or in simple terms Kachy was in the region of around 7 lengths quicker to the 3f pole than Watchable. Some difference!
No surprise then that the principals in the Diamond Jubilee finished notably slower than Cape Byron, winner of the Wokingham. He covered the last 2f in 23.89 seconds compared to Blue Point’s 24.46, which equates to around 3.5 lengths. In summary the gallop in the Wokingham was more even paced throughout, whereas the Diamond Jubilee was run at a frenetic early pace and the majority of the principals slowed notably towards the finish. The main exception was the runner-up Dream of Dreams, and that is simply explained by the fact that he came from off the pace, conserving more energy than the leaders in the early stages of the race.
The growing use of sectionals gives a fascinating insight into how the pace of a race has an impact on each individual in it, and the above just gives a brief insight into how they can shed more light on a race than just the overall time. Much more so in the end.
Back to the Diamond Jubilee. The standards for a Group 1 sprint in Britain point to figures in the region of 120/119 respectively for Blue Point and Dream of Dreams, a level which I’ve settled on at present. That represents a clear career-best for the latter who has always promised more and is now delivering. To put that performance into context, it is the highest rating allocated to the runner-up of a 6f Group 1 sprint in Britain since Choisir ran to 121 in the 2003 July Cup.
It would be remiss not to mention Kachy again, also. He did remarkably well to keep on for third given the early fractions he set, and a figure of 112 is as good as he’s run on turf. Arguably you could make a strong case for upgrading his performance based on sectional analysis, and there’s every chance he may well reproduce his all-weather rating of 115 on turf when speed is at a premium over 6f.
However, the older sprinters should face some serious competition in the July Cup in the shape of the three-year-old Advertise, the impressive winner of the 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup twenty-four hours earlier.
The race attracted the smallest field in its short history to date. However what it lacked in quantity it made up for in quality, with Ten Sovereigns and Jash, the first two home in the Middle Park, and Advertise, runner-up in the Dewhurst, all representing top class juvenile form.
Advertise soon put behind him a disappointing run in the 2000 Guineas with a clear cut length and a half win from the Irish challenger Forever in Dreams, with Hello Youmzain a further head behind in third.
Beforehand Advertise was rated 119 based on his Dewhurst second, and Hello Youmzain 114. Their performances here mirror that relationship perfectly. It also ties in well with the standard of 118/119 for the Commonwealth Cup, and given the race was run at a solid pace throughout and is backed up by an excellent time, it looks a fairly straightforward race to make sense of. Advertise and Dream of Dreams both look set for the July Cup, and it promises to be an exciting clash of the generations with little to choose between the main contenders.
Crystal Dazzles
From a ratings perspective the performance of not only the week but the season to date, was Crystal Ocean’s success in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…
Runner-up Magical ended 2018 with a mark of 122 and nothing she had done in notching three straight wins this year prior to Ascot suggested that level was incorrect. In beating her fair and square I have Crystal Ocean running to 127, with French challenger Waldgeist 3 lb below his best at 119 in third – that no great surprise given that he has yet to reproduce his domestic level in five starts outside of France. The only slight question mark over the form is the relative closeness of the front-running Hunting Horn in fourth – he has never previously been higher than 114 but appears to have run to 115 on this occasion. From a historical perspective the winning performance is at the top end – bettering Poet’s Word last year by a pound and being the highest rated in the last eight runnings.
Staying with the older horses, two old favourites fought out the finish of the Queen Anne on the opening day. Lord Glitters and Beat The Bank have no secrets from us from a handicapping perspective and I have them performing to 117 and 116, pretty much in line with their previous levels. That suggests One Master (third) was 1 lb below her best and Romanised (fourth) pretty much reproduced his 113 performance from the Lockinge.
The two feature races for three-year-olds over a mile were slightly less easy to rate with confidence.
As far as the St James’s Palace is concerned, I have Circus Maximus returning a figure of 117. Currently that would have his performance 1 lb superior to that of Without Parole in the race last year but inferior to other recent winners Barney Roy (119), Galileo Gold (121), Gleneagles (118) and Kingman (126) – the level is subject to change going forward, however, as it is impossible to know with total confidence how good the three-year-olds are until they start pitching themselves against the older horses.
As far as last year’s champion juvenile Too Darn Hot is concerned, it now looks unlikely that he will return to the levels he showed then (126) – his three starts so far this year have all been in the mid-teens range and he is now published at the mark of 115 that I have him running to in the St James’s Palace.
The fillies equivalent of the St James’s Palace, the Coronation Stakes, threw up a 20-1 winner in French challenger Watch Me who, having had no luck in running in the Pouliches, looked a top-class filly here. She travelled well throughout and there was no obvious fluke about her defeat of Hermosa. I have her running to 116, a figure bettered only by Alpha Centauri (122 last year) and Winter (118 in 2017) in the race in recent years – it will be interesting to see how she fares should she take on the colts later in the season.
Batman reborn
A second Gold Cup success for Stradivarius invoked memories of a favourite childhood superhero for Matthew Tester…
On TV when I was young, Batman was always getting into jeopardy; but there was always something in his utility belt that would get him out of trouble. A can of shark repelling spray was one memorable example.
Stradivarius is Batman reborn. Whatever the jeopardy, he has the solution. His latest Gold Cup win was on dead ground that is not meant to favour him. He was kept in a pocket by Capri on his outside when Frankie Dettori wanted to make a move. Not a problem for Stradivarius. He is a stayer with a burst of acceleration which he used to get out of the pocket. After that he always looked likely to triumph.
His win was by one length from Dee Ex Bee who had been rated 118 when runner-up to Masar in last year’s Derby. Less than a length further back in fourth was Cross Counter who came into the Gold Cup rated 118 after wins in the Melbourne Cup and the Dubai Gold Cup. Between them was the 108-rated Master Of Reality who had looked progressive hitherto, and the Irish Handicapper is happy to suggest he is now also worth a 118 rating.
Stradivarius stays on his pre-race rating of 120 but I suspect that, like Batman, he will come out victorious no matter what. He rarely wins by wide margins, but he keeps winning. He is the sort of horse for which we cannot find a justification on form for a higher rating even if we think that he would be capable of it. Sea The Stars was the perfect example of this. I am confident that Stradivarius can run to higher than 120 when needed. I just want to see what else he has in his utility belt.
Kicking in the tubo
The Coventry Stakes on day one is often considered the best of the six juvenile contests at Royal Ascot but this year the feature performance within the age group was saved until last, writes Graeme Smith.
Pinatubo currently tops the list of juveniles in Europe at 110 following a Chesham success in which he lowered the two-year-old track record by no less than 0.82 seconds, which translates to nearly five lengths. That’s the headline, but those of us who take these things seriously will know that more important in terms of context is how the time stood up against other races under that day’s conditions – drying ground and tailwind – and again the answer was positive.
In a soundly-run race the match-up with the much-hyped Lope Y Fernandez duly materialized as the market leaders were played together approaching the final 1f, and Pinatubo ran right away from him to score by more than three lengths. The striking thing on the sectionals was that the other principals largely kept going through the last two furlongs but Pinatubo actually quickened off that pace, earning himself extra credit into the bargain. Lope Y Fernandez ran to 101 on my figures, although, as with all the Irish horses, a final decision on their handicap marks lies with my Irish counterpart.
The Coventry has a rich history of throwing up high-class horses but while the right ones came to the fore in terms of pre-race form and market expectations, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that this was a substandard renewal, in terms of what was achieved on the day at least. The lowest winning figure in the Coventry this century came courtesy of Rajasinghe in 2017 (107) when the first ten were covered by less than five lengths. This time it was less than four lengths, and that was a strong recommendation for going below the historical standard for the principals.
Speed figures were difficult to gauge in the early part of the week with heavy rain continually moving the goalposts, but Ascot’s electronic sectional timing data discredited any suggestion the busy finish had anything to do with a lack of pace.
It is of course early days in the development of these two-year-olds, and Arizona and Threat certainly have plenty to recommend them physically, but Arizona’s figure of 108 sits around 5 lb below the average Coventry winner this century.
Conversely, the front two in the Norfolk were well up to standard. A’Ali had gone into many a notebook when pushing Spartan Fighter into recording a very useful time at Ripon on his debut and his followers didn’t have to wait long to cash in. From a race where the first five were trained in Britain, A’Ali emerges with a performance figure of 108 (he needs to run again before he’s eligible for a handicap mark), while Ventura Rebel dispelled any suggestion he’d been flattered to pick off tiring rivals last time and goes in on 107.
The emphasis was on stamina at the trip in the Windsor Castle and a finish in which the first six were still covered by less than two lengths was always going to lead to a figure towards the low end historically. The winner Southern Hills ran to 101 on my figures and I’m not entirely convinced the finishing order will stand up if some of these meet again in the future.
The stand side became the place to be as Wednesday wore on and the first three home came from the three highest stalls. I’d been impressed by Symbolize on his debut at Salisbury – form that looks even better now with the runner-up Aroha having finished third in the Albany – and he’s one of several who could make a better fist of things another day. For what it’s worth he ran three metres further than the winner.
The better of the fillies’ races was almost certainly the Albany. Daahyeh had beaten the Queen Mary winner Raffle Prize by a length and three-quarters (5 lb) on their respective debuts at Newmarket last month and, leaning primarily on historical standards, that remains the difference between them.
Roger Varian’s filly looked in trouble as Celtic Beauty got to her travelling better and even edged past, but as that one fizzled out to run the slowest last furlong of any of the first four Daahyeh showed real fight to win with authority in the end. Time will obviously tell how Daahyeh’s 109 figure stands up, but that’s currently the benchmark in the fillies’ division.
Raffle Prize rather ruined the party for Wesley Ward after Kimari had ensured a proper test at the 5f trip of the Queen Mary in pursuit of a fourth win in the race for her stable. There was relatively little between the two fillies at the line but Raffle Prize was always getting the better of it through the last hundred yards and she emerges with a rating of 104. Raffle Prize is already proven at 6f and it may well be that a rematch with Daahyeh could be on the cards in something like the Duchess of Cambridge or the Lowther further into summer.
25 Jun 19
Blue is King once more
In landing both Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot Blue Point bookended the 2019 Royal Meeting with two stellar performances. Stewart Copeland expands on his win in the Diamond Jubilee inthe next section, but firstly 5f handicapper Chris Nash assesses what he achieved in the King’s Stand…
The only 5f race open to older horses at the Royal meeting is the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. The first three from the 2018 renewal returned to do battle and they all but produced the same result. In 2018 Blue Point beat Battaash by one and three quarter lengths with a further neck back to Mabs Cross in third. This time around Blue Point again took the prize but on this occasion there was one and a quarter lengths back to Battaash in second, with a further one and a half lengths to Soldier’s Call in third. Mabs Cross was just a nose behind him in fourth.
The last ten winners of this race range from 113 to 125 (the stunning effort of Lady Aurelia in 2017 with her fillies allowance added back in) and the average winner comes out at 118. Applying race standards to the 2019 renewal suggests a figure between 117 and 119 for Blue Point. However, I’m happy to be plenty above that range as those figures are held back by a couple of moderate renewals in 2015 and 2016 where the winners (Goldream and Profitable) only recorded figures of 113. I’m sure that we are in a far better age of 5f sprinting at the minute.
I decided to rate Blue Point 123 which equates to a career best. This has Battaash running to 119, Soldier’s Call running to 114 (which matches his previous career best) and Mabs Cross running to 111 (a few pounds below her very best).
Blue Point went into the King’s Stand rated 120, 3 lb behind the 123-rated Battaash. However, given that Blue Point has now come out on top the last three times that they have met, that differential can no longer be supported. Some people might suggest that I’m slightly sitting on the fence in rating them both 123 after this race but I can’t pick the one that is the best. Battaash can be electric on his day and he looks best over a sharp 5f – if the pair met at (say) Goodwood I’d want him on my side. Stage the race at Ascot over a stiffer 5f and Blue Point would definitely appear to hold the aces.
Blue proves the point with rare double
When the phrase ‘go out on a high note’ was coined I’m not sure horse racing figured highly in the thinking but it could hardly be more apt for the career of Blue Point, writes Stewart Copeland. As I write this, news has broken that Blue Point has been retired, and he leaves the sport with many great memories for us all, not least his historic double at Royal Ascot last week.
As I tweeted last week he became the first horse since Choisir in 2003 to land the King’s Stand and Diamond Jubilee double. – and his was arguably an even more notable achievement given the King’s Stand was a Group 2 back then. It’s hard to imagine any other horse winning two Group 1 races at the same track in the same week, but I’ll leave that research to the historians out there!
What I can say for certain is that Blue Point retires with four Group 1 wins on his record, including a hat-trick of successes on his last three starts. Arguably the pick of them is his performance in this year’s King’s Stand, as outlined above. The figure of 123 allocated to him for that win ranks him right up there with some of the best British-trained sprinters we’ve seen this millennium. Only Oasis Dream and Harry Angel, both on 125, have rated higher. Let’s hope this splendid racehorse has a long and productive retirement.
As for his performance in the Diamond Jubilee I have credited him with a performance rating of 120+. In analysing the race the early fractions were strong set by Kachy, and studying the sectionals, Blue Point arguably deserves extra credit for racing closest to the aforementioned trailblazer over a test which stretches his stamina to the limit. His performance in the King’s Stand already tells us that is merited. I wrote a good while back in this blog how sectionals would aid anyone in breaking down what happens in an individual race, and the information kindly supplied again by Longines at Royal Ascot proved an invaluable help.
To highlight this let’s look at the Wokingham alongside the Diamond Jubilee. When assessing the overall time and weights carried, the races produce an identical speed rating. However the races could hardly have been run more differently. Kachy covered the first 3f in 35.69 seconds, as opposed to Watchable (who set the strongest pace in the Wokingham) in 36.85. That’s a difference of 1.16s, or in simple terms Kachy was in the region of around 7 lengths quicker to the 3f pole than Watchable. Some difference!
No surprise then that the principals in the Diamond Jubilee finished notably slower than Cape Byron, winner of the Wokingham. He covered the last 2f in 23.89 seconds compared to Blue Point’s 24.46, which equates to around 3.5 lengths. In summary the gallop in the Wokingham was more even paced throughout, whereas the Diamond Jubilee was run at a frenetic early pace and the majority of the principals slowed notably towards the finish. The main exception was the runner-up Dream of Dreams, and that is simply explained by the fact that he came from off the pace, conserving more energy than the leaders in the early stages of the race.
The growing use of sectionals gives a fascinating insight into how the pace of a race has an impact on each individual in it, and the above just gives a brief insight into how they can shed more light on a race than just the overall time. Much more so in the end.
Back to the Diamond Jubilee. The standards for a Group 1 sprint in Britain point to figures in the region of 120/119 respectively for Blue Point and Dream of Dreams, a level which I’ve settled on at present. That represents a clear career-best for the latter who has always promised more and is now delivering. To put that performance into context, it is the highest rating allocated to the runner-up of a 6f Group 1 sprint in Britain since Choisir ran to 121 in the 2003 July Cup.
It would be remiss not to mention Kachy again, also. He did remarkably well to keep on for third given the early fractions he set, and a figure of 112 is as good as he’s run on turf. Arguably you could make a strong case for upgrading his performance based on sectional analysis, and there’s every chance he may well reproduce his all-weather rating of 115 on turf when speed is at a premium over 6f.
However, the older sprinters should face some serious competition in the July Cup in the shape of the three-year-old Advertise, the impressive winner of the 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup twenty-four hours earlier.
The race attracted the smallest field in its short history to date. However what it lacked in quantity it made up for in quality, with Ten Sovereigns and Jash, the first two home in the Middle Park, and Advertise, runner-up in the Dewhurst, all representing top class juvenile form.
Advertise soon put behind him a disappointing run in the 2000 Guineas with a clear cut length and a half win from the Irish challenger Forever in Dreams, with Hello Youmzain a further head behind in third.
Beforehand Advertise was rated 119 based on his Dewhurst second, and Hello Youmzain 114. Their performances here mirror that relationship perfectly. It also ties in well with the standard of 118/119 for the Commonwealth Cup, and given the race was run at a solid pace throughout and is backed up by an excellent time, it looks a fairly straightforward race to make sense of. Advertise and Dream of Dreams both look set for the July Cup, and it promises to be an exciting clash of the generations with little to choose between the main contenders.
Crystal Dazzles
From a ratings perspective the performance of not only the week but the season to date, was Crystal Ocean’s success in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…
Runner-up Magical ended 2018 with a mark of 122 and nothing she had done in notching three straight wins this year prior to Ascot suggested that level was incorrect. In beating her fair and square I have Crystal Ocean running to 127, with French challenger Waldgeist 3 lb below his best at 119 in third – that no great surprise given that he has yet to reproduce his domestic level in five starts outside of France. The only slight question mark over the form is the relative closeness of the front-running Hunting Horn in fourth – he has never previously been higher than 114 but appears to have run to 115 on this occasion. From a historical perspective the winning performance is at the top end – bettering Poet’s Word last year by a pound and being the highest rated in the last eight runnings.
Staying with the older horses, two old favourites fought out the finish of the Queen Anne on the opening day. Lord Glitters and Beat The Bank have no secrets from us from a handicapping perspective and I have them performing to 117 and 116, pretty much in line with their previous levels. That suggests One Master (third) was 1 lb below her best and Romanised (fourth) pretty much reproduced his 113 performance from the Lockinge.
The two feature races for three-year-olds over a mile were slightly less easy to rate with confidence.
As far as the St James’s Palace is concerned, I have Circus Maximus returning a figure of 117. Currently that would have his performance 1 lb superior to that of Without Parole in the race last year but inferior to other recent winners Barney Roy (119), Galileo Gold (121), Gleneagles (118) and Kingman (126) – the level is subject to change going forward, however, as it is impossible to know with total confidence how good the three-year-olds are until they start pitching themselves against the older horses.
As far as last year’s champion juvenile Too Darn Hot is concerned, it now looks unlikely that he will return to the levels he showed then (126) – his three starts so far this year have all been in the mid-teens range and he is now published at the mark of 115 that I have him running to in the St James’s Palace.
The fillies equivalent of the St James’s Palace, the Coronation Stakes, threw up a 20-1 winner in French challenger Watch Me who, having had no luck in running in the Pouliches, looked a top-class filly here. She travelled well throughout and there was no obvious fluke about her defeat of Hermosa. I have her running to 116, a figure bettered only by Alpha Centauri (122 last year) and Winter (118 in 2017) in the race in recent years – it will be interesting to see how she fares should she take on the colts later in the season.
Batman reborn
A second Gold Cup success for Stradivarius invoked memories of a favourite childhood superhero for Matthew Tester…
On TV when I was young, Batman was always getting into jeopardy; but there was always something in his utility belt that would get him out of trouble. A can of shark repelling spray was one memorable example.
Stradivarius is Batman reborn. Whatever the jeopardy, he has the solution. His latest Gold Cup win was on dead ground that is not meant to favour him. He was kept in a pocket by Capri on his outside when Frankie Dettori wanted to make a move. Not a problem for Stradivarius. He is a stayer with a burst of acceleration which he used to get out of the pocket. After that he always looked likely to triumph.
His win was by one length from Dee Ex Bee who had been rated 118 when runner-up to Masar in last year’s Derby. Less than a length further back in fourth was Cross Counter who came into the Gold Cup rated 118 after wins in the Melbourne Cup and the Dubai Gold Cup. Between them was the 108-rated Master Of Reality who had looked progressive hitherto, and the Irish Handicapper is happy to suggest he is now also worth a 118 rating.
Stradivarius stays on his pre-race rating of 120 but I suspect that, like Batman, he will come out victorious no matter what. He rarely wins by wide margins, but he keeps winning. He is the sort of horse for which we cannot find a justification on form for a higher rating even if we think that he would be capable of it. Sea The Stars was the perfect example of this. I am confident that Stradivarius can run to higher than 120 when needed. I just want to see what else he has in his utility belt.
Kicking in the tubo
The Coventry Stakes on day one is often considered the best of the six juvenile contests at Royal Ascot but this year the feature performance within the age group was saved until last, writes Graeme Smith.
Pinatubo currently tops the list of juveniles in Europe at 110 following a Chesham success in which he lowered the two-year-old track record by no less than 0.82 seconds, which translates to nearly five lengths. That’s the headline, but those of us who take these things seriously will know that more important in terms of context is how the time stood up against other races under that day’s conditions – drying ground and tailwind – and again the answer was positive.
In a soundly-run race the match-up with the much-hyped Lope Y Fernandez duly materialized as the market leaders were played together approaching the final 1f, and Pinatubo ran right away from him to score by more than three lengths. The striking thing on the sectionals was that the other principals largely kept going through the last two furlongs but Pinatubo actually quickened off that pace, earning himself extra credit into the bargain. Lope Y Fernandez ran to 101 on my figures, although, as with all the Irish horses, a final decision on their handicap marks lies with my Irish counterpart.
The Coventry has a rich history of throwing up high-class horses but while the right ones came to the fore in terms of pre-race form and market expectations, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that this was a substandard renewal, in terms of what was achieved on the day at least. The lowest winning figure in the Coventry this century came courtesy of Rajasinghe in 2017 (107) when the first ten were covered by less than five lengths. This time it was less than four lengths, and that was a strong recommendation for going below the historical standard for the principals.
Speed figures were difficult to gauge in the early part of the week with heavy rain continually moving the goalposts, but Ascot’s electronic sectional timing data discredited any suggestion the busy finish had anything to do with a lack of pace.
It is of course early days in the development of these two-year-olds, and Arizona and Threat certainly have plenty to recommend them physically, but Arizona’s figure of 108 sits around 5 lb below the average Coventry winner this century.
Conversely, the front two in the Norfolk were well up to standard. A’Ali had gone into many a notebook when pushing Spartan Fighter into recording a very useful time at Ripon on his debut and his followers didn’t have to wait long to cash in. From a race where the first five were trained in Britain, A’Ali emerges with a performance figure of 108 (he needs to run again before he’s eligible for a handicap mark), while Ventura Rebel dispelled any suggestion he’d been flattered to pick off tiring rivals last time and goes in on 107.
The emphasis was on stamina at the trip in the Windsor Castle and a finish in which the first six were still covered by less than two lengths was always going to lead to a figure towards the low end historically. The winner Southern Hills ran to 101 on my figures and I’m not entirely convinced the finishing order will stand up if some of these meet again in the future.
The stand side became the place to be as Wednesday wore on and the first three home came from the three highest stalls. I’d been impressed by Symbolize on his debut at Salisbury – form that looks even better now with the runner-up Aroha having finished third in the Albany – and he’s one of several who could make a better fist of things another day. For what it’s worth he ran three metres further than the winner.
The better of the fillies’ races was almost certainly the Albany. Daahyeh had beaten the Queen Mary winner Raffle Prize by a length and three-quarters (5 lb) on their respective debuts at Newmarket last month and, leaning primarily on historical standards, that remains the difference between them.
Roger Varian’s filly looked in trouble as Celtic Beauty got to her travelling better and even edged past, but as that one fizzled out to run the slowest last furlong of any of the first four Daahyeh showed real fight to win with authority in the end. Time will obviously tell how Daahyeh’s 109 figure stands up, but that’s currently the benchmark in the fillies’ division.
Raffle Prize rather ruined the party for Wesley Ward after Kimari had ensured a proper test at the 5f trip of the Queen Mary in pursuit of a fourth win in the race for her stable. There was relatively little between the two fillies at the line but Raffle Prize was always getting the better of it through the last hundred yards and she emerges with a rating of 104. Raffle Prize is already proven at 6f and it may well be that a rematch with Daahyeh could be on the cards in something like the Duchess of Cambridge or the Lowther further into summer.
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July Festival 2019 | Handicappers Blog
16 Jul 19
Sovereigns reigns supreme
When I arrived at the July course on Saturday the news that greeted me was a huge gamble taking place on Ten Sovereigns, writes Stewart Copeland. Early morning quotes of 10/1 had soon disappeared and he’d displaced Advertise, his conqueror in last month’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, as favourite for the Darley July Cup. Come late afternoon, those who had placed such faith in the colt were more than vindicated.
With this season’s leading sprinter Blue Point retired following his Royal Ascot double, much of the pre-race talk had largely focussed on Dream of Dreams, who had narrowly failed to catch Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee, and the aforementioned three-year-old Advertise. We couldn’t split that pair on official ratings, with both rated 119, and a fascinating clash beckoned between the older and younger generations.
However, it shouldn’t have been forgotten that the best form in the race had been posted by Ten Sovereigns when successful in last year’s Middle Park, after which he’d been credited with a rating of 120. The faith in the market suggested the combination of 6f and quick going – conditions he’d encountered in the Middle Park – would see him return to form, and so it proved in spectacular style.
The field split into two groups, one down the centre and the other coming down the stand side. Under a no-nonsense ride Ten Sovereigns was soon at the head of affairs in the centre group, displaying excellent speed and finding plenty when push came to shove around two furlongs out. He ran out a commanding winner, beating his old foe Advertise by two and three quarters lengths, with the filly Fairyland (one of two other Ballydoyle runners) a further three quarters of a length back in third.
The responsibility for publishing Ten Sovereigns’ rating rests with my Irish colleagues. After discussing the race, we settled on a figure of 122 for him. That is a particularly noteworthy achievement as it’s the highest rating posted in the race since Oasis Dream’s 125 in 2003, and also the leading figure at 6f in Europe this year.
As for those who chased him home, Advertise ran a highly creditable race despite not quite fully reproducing his Commonwealth Cup form. He left the distinct impression that this test on quicker going than at Ascot was on the sharp side for him, and the Prix Maurice de Gheest over 6.5f at Deauville – his mooted next target – looks an ideal race for him.
The next three places were filled by three-year-old fillies – that generation dominated the contest – and they give the form a solid look. All largely reproduced the level they had shown previously this season. In Fairyland’s case she deserves a special mention as she fared best of the slightly smaller group who came up the stand rail, with her being somewhat isolated from the two main protagonists late on. She ran to a rating of 110 but it would be no great surprise if there was better to come from her.
Mystery powers to Superlative success
With a trio of juvenile pattern events across the three days, the July Festival is an important staging post in the two-year-old calendar. Graeme Smithassesses the merits of the latest winners of those races…
The opening pattern race for juveniles, the Tattersalls July Stakes, saw Visinari sent off at odds-on to add to a dazzling debut on the July course last month only for him to succumb in a tight finish to a couple who’d been beaten at Royal Ascot. In hindsight, both Royal Lytham and Platinum Star had scope for further improvement; the former having lined up for the Coventry only ten days on from his debut and then found trouble, while the latter was stepping back up in trip after a second over 5f in the Windsor Castle. Nevertheless, following on from bunched finishes to those two races, this was another that returned a below-standard winner.
The average winning performance in the July Stakes over the last five years has been around 113, and factoring in the distances between the principals this time suggested 110 for Royal Lytham. However, a speed figure stemming from the handicap over the same course and distance (supported by the sectionals) pointed to even lower and both myself and my Irish counterpart Mark Bird feel 108 is in the right region as things stand. That puts Platinum Star and Visinari (not yet eligible for a mark) on 107, with Guildsman 5lb off his Coventry figure of 106 back in fourth.
There’s every chance Royal Lytham will progress further, however. He could certainly sharpen up his act in the early stages and I have a feeling an extra furlong will help.
The Bet365 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes attracted the winners of both the Queen Mary and the Albany, and Raffle Prize produced the best performance of the season so far by a juvenile filly as she evened the score numerically with Daahyeh after having to give best on their respective debuts. Factor in the 3lb-penalty Raffle Prize conceded and this was impressive stuff.
I outlined in my Ascot blog that track records aren’t always what they seem, and Raffle Prize’s lowering of the older-horse perch by 0.59 seconds is over-egging things slightly (strong tailwind, 6f record was reset in 2017 when the start was moved), but this was still a strong time trial and it fully justifies her new mark of 111. That’s as good as any performance in the Duchess of Cambridge from the last dozen years, with the exception of Pretty Pollyanna’s 116 last summer.
The Queen Mary form is proving strong but the same can’t be said about the Albany and I’ve reined Daahyeh’s figure back 2 lb to 107. I’m not convinced she was seen to best effect here, however – she effectively gave Raffle Prize a two-length start in a race run with positive finishing splits, while this was run in a time 5 seconds faster than when her stamina won the day in the Albany (negative finishing split). I wouldn’t write her off for the Moyglare over an extra furlong just yet.
The pick of the performances at Newmarket, and indeed from the British-trained juveniles all told at this stage, likely came from Mystery Power in the Bet365 Superlative Stakes. It’s never easy to be dogmatic about the level of the Superlative given it tends to attract unexposed sorts straight out of maidens/novices, but it was certainly encouraging to see the field string out. Historical standards suggested a figure of 112 and the time went a good way to backing that up, bearing in mind this finish was slightly faster, relatively speaking, than the maiden over the same trip.
Both Mystery Power and runner-up Juan Elcano proved themselves smart on just their second career starts and it’s interesting that they beat the same horse in Subjectivist on their respective debuts. Mystery Power came out three quarters of a length ahead of Juan Elcano on a line through that rival and gained the verdict here by a length.
16 Jul 19
Sovereigns reigns supreme
When I arrived at the July course on Saturday the news that greeted me was a huge gamble taking place on Ten Sovereigns, writes Stewart Copeland. Early morning quotes of 10/1 had soon disappeared and he’d displaced Advertise, his conqueror in last month’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, as favourite for the Darley July Cup. Come late afternoon, those who had placed such faith in the colt were more than vindicated.
With this season’s leading sprinter Blue Point retired following his Royal Ascot double, much of the pre-race talk had largely focussed on Dream of Dreams, who had narrowly failed to catch Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee, and the aforementioned three-year-old Advertise. We couldn’t split that pair on official ratings, with both rated 119, and a fascinating clash beckoned between the older and younger generations.
However, it shouldn’t have been forgotten that the best form in the race had been posted by Ten Sovereigns when successful in last year’s Middle Park, after which he’d been credited with a rating of 120. The faith in the market suggested the combination of 6f and quick going – conditions he’d encountered in the Middle Park – would see him return to form, and so it proved in spectacular style.
The field split into two groups, one down the centre and the other coming down the stand side. Under a no-nonsense ride Ten Sovereigns was soon at the head of affairs in the centre group, displaying excellent speed and finding plenty when push came to shove around two furlongs out. He ran out a commanding winner, beating his old foe Advertise by two and three quarters lengths, with the filly Fairyland (one of two other Ballydoyle runners) a further three quarters of a length back in third.
The responsibility for publishing Ten Sovereigns’ rating rests with my Irish colleagues. After discussing the race, we settled on a figure of 122 for him. That is a particularly noteworthy achievement as it’s the highest rating posted in the race since Oasis Dream’s 125 in 2003, and also the leading figure at 6f in Europe this year.
As for those who chased him home, Advertise ran a highly creditable race despite not quite fully reproducing his Commonwealth Cup form. He left the distinct impression that this test on quicker going than at Ascot was on the sharp side for him, and the Prix Maurice de Gheest over 6.5f at Deauville – his mooted next target – looks an ideal race for him.
The next three places were filled by three-year-old fillies – that generation dominated the contest – and they give the form a solid look. All largely reproduced the level they had shown previously this season. In Fairyland’s case she deserves a special mention as she fared best of the slightly smaller group who came up the stand rail, with her being somewhat isolated from the two main protagonists late on. She ran to a rating of 110 but it would be no great surprise if there was better to come from her.
Mystery powers to Superlative success
With a trio of juvenile pattern events across the three days, the July Festival is an important staging post in the two-year-old calendar. Graeme Smithassesses the merits of the latest winners of those races…
The opening pattern race for juveniles, the Tattersalls July Stakes, saw Visinari sent off at odds-on to add to a dazzling debut on the July course last month only for him to succumb in a tight finish to a couple who’d been beaten at Royal Ascot. In hindsight, both Royal Lytham and Platinum Star had scope for further improvement; the former having lined up for the Coventry only ten days on from his debut and then found trouble, while the latter was stepping back up in trip after a second over 5f in the Windsor Castle. Nevertheless, following on from bunched finishes to those two races, this was another that returned a below-standard winner.
The average winning performance in the July Stakes over the last five years has been around 113, and factoring in the distances between the principals this time suggested 110 for Royal Lytham. However, a speed figure stemming from the handicap over the same course and distance (supported by the sectionals) pointed to even lower and both myself and my Irish counterpart Mark Bird feel 108 is in the right region as things stand. That puts Platinum Star and Visinari (not yet eligible for a mark) on 107, with Guildsman 5lb off his Coventry figure of 106 back in fourth.
There’s every chance Royal Lytham will progress further, however. He could certainly sharpen up his act in the early stages and I have a feeling an extra furlong will help.
The Bet365 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes attracted the winners of both the Queen Mary and the Albany, and Raffle Prize produced the best performance of the season so far by a juvenile filly as she evened the score numerically with Daahyeh after having to give best on their respective debuts. Factor in the 3lb-penalty Raffle Prize conceded and this was impressive stuff.
I outlined in my Ascot blog that track records aren’t always what they seem, and Raffle Prize’s lowering of the older-horse perch by 0.59 seconds is over-egging things slightly (strong tailwind, 6f record was reset in 2017 when the start was moved), but this was still a strong time trial and it fully justifies her new mark of 111. That’s as good as any performance in the Duchess of Cambridge from the last dozen years, with the exception of Pretty Pollyanna’s 116 last summer.
The Queen Mary form is proving strong but the same can’t be said about the Albany and I’ve reined Daahyeh’s figure back 2 lb to 107. I’m not convinced she was seen to best effect here, however – she effectively gave Raffle Prize a two-length start in a race run with positive finishing splits, while this was run in a time 5 seconds faster than when her stamina won the day in the Albany (negative finishing split). I wouldn’t write her off for the Moyglare over an extra furlong just yet.
The pick of the performances at Newmarket, and indeed from the British-trained juveniles all told at this stage, likely came from Mystery Power in the Bet365 Superlative Stakes. It’s never easy to be dogmatic about the level of the Superlative given it tends to attract unexposed sorts straight out of maidens/novices, but it was certainly encouraging to see the field string out. Historical standards suggested a figure of 112 and the time went a good way to backing that up, bearing in mind this finish was slightly faster, relatively speaking, than the maiden over the same trip.
Both Mystery Power and runner-up Juan Elcano proved themselves smart on just their second career starts and it’s interesting that they beat the same horse in Subjectivist on their respective debuts. Mystery Power came out three quarters of a length ahead of Juan Elcano on a line through that rival and gained the verdict here by a length.