The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Not that I'm an advocate of P&C's Champion Hurdle chance, but it would be unwise to write him off entirely - not at this point anyway.

There was a bit off the "too bad to be true" about today's effort, and he ran like a horse who badly needed the outing, and this was exacerbated by being too free throughout.

Whether he can make sufficient improvement to put himself truly in the CH market, is the question. The Triumph is a race I'm finding hard to figure out, if I'm honest. Those in behind have generally run with credit, but nothing from the race has really gone on and given it a boost.....but they haven't exposed it as inferior either.

I probably tend towards the sceptical, in terms of whether any of them - Peace & Co included - have sufficient class to seriously trouble Faugheen, but I'd like to see P&C one more time, before discounting the juveniles from calculations.
 
Old Guard has improved massively though, I had a look this morning at his triumph run, I arrived at the conclusion that his jumping and immaturity were the reasons he only finished 9th. I backed him today when he reached 8.2 on betfair as it was too good of a price but I can see him improve even further in a strongly run race. Rooster Booster has come from handicap ranks and in 02/03 season he improved to take the big one. Purple Bay was last years handicapper who improved into 160 territory, but after a year missing due to injury and on soft ground he couldn't show that same level of form this season but Old Guard loves Chelt it seems and the Blue Riband is run there so who knows how much he'll progress again into the CH, he might be underestimated in the market at 25/1, but then again so could Identity Thief and Top Notch.

Only two pieces of the puzzle left now- MTOY & TNO comebacks on the crime scene of two years ago in the Christmas Hurdle, and the Ryanair Hurdle clash of CH runner-up AF, the dream killer NC and the new kid who destroys from the front IT, 2 weeks left!!
 
Aughex said:
Rooster Booster has come from handicap ranks and in 02/03 season he improved to take the big one.
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The comparison is invalid on several levels. RB had already at least one season handicapping. His first run (when he p1shed all over Mr Cool) the season he won the CH was a strong indicator that he was was up to the job. Winning the Greatwood off top weight was confirmation. It was plain sailing after that. Old Guard is much more in the Rigmarole/Brampour mould, neither of which was good enough.

Old Guard probably needs to improve another stone to get placed in the Champion Hurdle.

I'm now seriously starting to question the credentials of last season's juveniles.
 
tiggers1972 said:
What do we all think of Jacob's ride today?
Trials day Geraghty taught the horse to settle did he not?
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I thought it was awful. He fought the horse early on before letting him stride on. Never gave the horse a chance IMO. Wouldn't have won whatever though


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Desert Orchid said:
Old Guard probably needs to improve another stone to get placed in the Champion Hurdle.

I'm now seriously starting to question the credentials of last season's juveniles.
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I don't see anything wrong with the juveniles form, why is everyone expecting them to win all the group races in open company? OG just won a G2 and Top Notch was short second in a G1. Thats good form for the juveniles in any season. P&C was too keen throughout to even consider, we'll have plenty of time to judge him but not on todays run.

As for RB I dont think it matters for how long he was handicapping for, just like OG he came to life at the start of season and won the champion off 167. He ran to 170 in the CH so for OG there is a possibility he'll improve again. Old Guard mark coming into the Bula was 157, RB's 165, not that far off and could be raised to 160+ after today leaving Melodic(150) and Cheltenian(154) 5-10 lengths behind. The fact he handles soft going and the track means he'll be a player in the CH, not major but a player and 25/1 NRNB could look good come March as his next start is in February when he'll most likely meet The New One and will be interesting to see how he does in the Christmas Hurdle and how OG performs against him.
 
tiggers1972 said:
What do we all think of Jacob's ride today?
Trials day Geraghty taught the horse to settle did he not?
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I was gutted but have not given up hope.
Jacobs is far from being a bad jockey but he's no Barry Geraghty who would have given him a much better ride.

Jacobs was on the horses mouth from the offset and fighting peace and co and made no effort to settle him.

I was sitting thinking ffs man drop your hands...for those who have never ridden watch Ruby on his mount or look back at the Triumph and see how hard Peace and Co was pulling in that race.

Barry immediately stopped fighting him and dropped his hands down to the horses withers, keeping a hold of him bit not yanking at the horses mouth like Jacobs was yesterday,

Better days to come one hopes
 
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granger said:
how did you rate them relative to Our Conor?
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Excellent point, granger. Give me a couple of days to look out the old stuff.

Off the top of my head, Our Conor stood head and shoulders above the other juveniles. There were three or four last season who appeared to put up very high class figures but they don't appear to have done much to consolidate the form this season. It's looking like Old Guard has improved past some of them.

Let me get back to you, though.

Edit - found this in my PC files from last year:

1.30 JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) Winner £68,340 17 runners 2m1f Good CH4

The juvenile races this week must have given the Irish cause for concern. None of their runners were sighted at the business end of either the Fred Winter or this. What I find confusing is that my big figures for Kalkir and Petite Parisienne were based on a time comparison with big handicap hurdle winner Sort It Out who was part of an Irish whitewash for the home side in the County 35 minutes later. It doesn’t add up. There’s no doubt the three Henderson horses are all very good – we knew that beforehand – but I don’t think there’s any way we could have expected them to be so far clear of everything else, and the fourth was miles clear of the fifth. I’ve gone high with the County yet on times Peace And Co has run 3lbs faster than Wicklow Brave before taking weight-for-age into consideration. The clock suggests both Peace And Co and Top Notch are on a par with the 2012 winner, the superb but ill-fated Our Conor, but he won by an easy 15 lengths. I’m rating the race conservatively compared with what the clock is saying, taking Devilment as running to his OR of 142, which puts the winner on 157+. As I said in one of the earlier reviews, it’s never satisfactory singling out one horse as a marker but they were so strung out it’s the only one that makes any sense.
 
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From RP

NICKY HENDERSON insisted on Sunday that the Stan James Champion Hurdle dream was still alive for Peace And Co after identifying an early-race collision as the most probable cause for his Cheltenham flop.

Last season's Triumph Hurdle winner was pushed out from a top-priced 8-1 to 20-1 after trailing in last behind Old Guard on his seasonal return in the International Hurdle on Saturday.
But Henderson believes an incident which left the four-year-old with a cut to a hind leg prompted him to run too freely, rush into the lead too early and squander all chance of winning.
To lessen the chance of a repeat, in response the three-time champion trainer plans to fit Peace And Co with a cross-noseband to improve his breathing.


Henderson said: "He's fine this morning and we'll scope him tomorrow morning and make sure he gets a clean bill of health. But I think what did him was he got a nick on a hind leg when someone galloped into him very early in the race, which lit him right up.
"He didn't get a chance to drop out and get settled. He wasn't unrideable but he got the bit between his teeth and he was gone. If he'd been left alone at the back he would have been all right probably."
Henderson added: "He's got to learn to shut his mouth and breathe, and we'll put a cross-noseband on him now. Fifty per cent of our runners run in them."


Henderson said that he could not see Peace And Co returning until the new year, while of Hargam, who finished a good third in the International Hurdle, the trainer added: "Barry [Geraghty] was thinking two and a half miles and better ground could help him, so Aintree could be the place for him."


The top three in the Champion Hurdle market are all trained by Willie Mullins, with Faugheen 5-4 favourite with the sponsor, followed by Nichols Canyon at 6-1 and Arctic Fire at 8-1.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Last season's Triumph Hurdle winner was pushed out from a top-priced 8-1 to 20-1 after trailing in last behind Old Guard on his seasonal return in the International Hurdle on Saturday.
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Exactly the same price MTOY was pushed out to for the Supreme when Chatterbox beat him in a slowly run race in '12. I was balls deep in the tent that year and he was beaten by an inspired front running Ruby ride. Major deja vu vibes.
 
20/1 P&Co supposedly will not be seen out until the New Year?

Can't think of anything suitable in January so perhaps he has the choice of the Schweeppes/Betfair Hurdle with top weight, a race he loves to win


There's also the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton but he has 3 others to think about if frost and snow should cause some Xmas cancellations.

The Kingwell must be favourite but it will end up a non event if he goes for it and leave us none the wiser unless I am missing something????
.
 
He surely won't run a 5yo in the Betfair Hurdle with what will almost certainly be a stopping-weight? He'd leave any CH chances behind at Newbury if he did that.

Henderson likes to ponce it at Sandown in the old Agfa Hurdle, with his over-rated CH horses (pretty sure Binocular ran in that), and of course, he could always send P&C to the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso........assuming the Spanish kid Gonzalez Byas is still Assistant Trainer at Seven Barrows.

;)

:lol:
 
Grasshopper said:
Should be top-weight in Coral Cup - better chance than in Champion Hurdle.
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I absolutely agree but I was under the impression Twister wanted another go, and wasn't it in the agreement with Nicholls that Sam keeps the ride on TNO.
 
fonz said:
I absolutely agree but I was under the impression Twister wanted another go, and wasn't it in the agreement with Nicholls that Sam keeps the ride on TNO.
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PFN was on a Beefier Q&A on Twitter... He will ride his horse and not TNO.
 
I was being a bit mischevious, fonz

I've no idea about any riding arrangements, but if STD had the choice, it sort of confirms what's obvious to most of us - that TNO won't win a Champion Hurdle.
 
Quote from NH today

My Tent Or Yours worked this morning and what we’ve concluded is that he isn’t going to go to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. We’re just going to have to give him a bit more time which is a bit boring but we have every intention of him being ready for the StanJames Champion Hurdle. With one thing and another, we’ve just struggled a little bit and we’ll just have to put it on hold. He’s just not quite ready.

He’d definitely want to run before the Champion Hurdle but one run would do him. We even used a jumpers’ bumper at Kempton before for him. We’ve just have to monitor it and see how he’s getting on. I hope it won’t take us too much longer but we’ll just have to wait and see.
Under the circumstances we would be more than likely to run Hargam and Sign Of A Victory. Whereas Tent needed to work, these two didn’t need galloping because they’re fit – Hargam only ran last Saturday and Sign Of A Victory ran on the flat a fortnight ago. They’re both in good shape so that is the plan. We would very dearly like a dry week for both of them and so I have instructed Mr Barney Clifford not to water the course at Kempton! A dry week would help them both enormously.
We were very happy with Sprinter Sacre and Vaniteux this morning so hopefully they’re both on course for Kempton next Sunday. Altior will be on course for Kempton on Boxing Day and a few others. We’re going to crack on and get some of these horses into the firing line, I hope.
 
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