The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Desert Orchid said:
So they're talking about looking for a run at the weekend that will see his odds halve and that he might run again between then and Cheltenham.

He's on 159 but the weights for the Betfair aren't out so a heavy defeat, for which they can always blame the ground, might see him drop 4 or 5lbs.

One thing is for sure. Whatever Henderson eventually does send to Newbury will demand the utmost respect.

(Hopefully it won't matter if the one I backed a couple of weeks ago is as good as I think.)
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I'd say that's a fair synopsis DO? This weekend is a fact finding mission with no real downside other than getting him back out again and another run under his belt. If he behaves and wins no problem, and if he doesn't run him at Newbury perhaps with a lower mark.
 
Something which would concern me about him running this weekend, Henderson has only one other entered in Captain Conan. He's likely to go the Clarence House so he hasn't assured any guaranteed pace. There's very little to gain and a lot to lose by running him at Haydock. Getting beat by TNO over 2 miles is the final nail in anyone's Champion Hurdle aspirations!
 
TheBear said:
Something which would concern me about him running this weekend, Henderson has only one other entered in Captain Conan. He's likely to go the Clarence House so he hasn't assured any guaranteed pace. There's very little to gain and a lot to lose by running him at Haydock. Getting beat by TNO over 2 miles is the final nail in anyone's Champion Hurdle aspirations!
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Disagree. Rayvin Black is entered and if he runs he always sets a really good pace. I agree that Captain Conan is unlikely to turn up at Haydock though. I can't imagine JP will want him to be Peace and Co's rabbit. To be honest Henderson looks as though he's got lucky with Sherwood's entry.

On the flip side it's a tough one tactically with The new One. They won't want to take up the running and set him up to be shot down by P&C if he does settle. But similarly he'll know P&C possibly has more speed than him if they allow him to get in front, and it's always tough to get back to top class horses in soft/heavy ground if they see it out.

There could be some e/w value to be found in this race given the respective doubts about Peace and Co (not settling), and The New One (fitness), but that's for another thread.
 
frankie7512.ew said:
I.e the international.......was told on the day the yard were on Hargam

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that doesn't tally with the betting though. Putting myself in the position of those in the yard..there are two horses running which there are only 5lbs between them..because i work in the yard..i know that Hargam is match fit...and P&C isn't..in fact P&C is going to run well below on this first run..so i've had all my bank on Hargam..who should win a minute.

and yet Hargam was 8/1 and P&C 4/5

don't add up to me..Cheltenian is rated similar to Hargam..so you would expect them to be a similar price..but if the stable really fancied Hargam..i'd expect him to be a lot shorter than a similar ability ..ready to go on day...hoss..Cheltenian was 10/1..i'd be expecting Hargam to be 4/1 7/2 ish if there was so much confidence/money being put on

the betting tells me that P&C was expected to win easy tbh..4/5 against 8/1..8/1 shot match fit as well

maybe i've read it wrong..just don't see any evidence of money being ploughed on Hargam

regarding Henderson and playing poker..i don't get that one either DO..Henderson wears his heart on his sleeve..he is way too emotional to be any good at poker..have you ever seen him after SS runs..shimmering wreck...he is no actor either..he was not a happy bunny after the race
 
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EC1 said:
..Henderson wears his heart on his sleeve..he is way too emotional to be any good at poker..have you ever seen him after SS runs..shimmering wreck...he is no actor either..he was not a happy bunny after the race
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I've always regarded him as a sublime actor.

He wins a big race and outwardly he's gushing but inwardly he's thinking 'job done, gamble landed'.

Same with the misinformation he regularly puts out before races. It's all a big act.

I love him for it.

There was something he did say not long ago on the morning line when, to me, he dropped his guard for a moment. Something to do with his work in the city.
 
Maruco said:
Disagree. Rayvin Black is entered and if he runs he always sets a really good pace. I agree that Captain Conan is unlikely to turn up at Haydock though. I can't imagine JP will want him to be Peace and Co's rabbit. To be honest Henderson looks as though he's got lucky with Sherwood's entry.

On the flip side it's a tough one tactically with The new One. They won't want to take up the running and set him up to be shot down by P&C if he does settle. But similarly he'll know P&C possibly has more speed than him if they allow him to get in front, and it's always tough to get back to top class horses in soft/heavy ground if they see it out.

There could be some e/w value to be found in this race given the respective doubts about Peace and Co (not settling), and The New One (fitness), but that's for another thread.
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Yeah you're quite right. I wasn't questioning the pace in the race, just whether P&C would run at all given that Henderson had previously stated that he would enter something to ensure a decent pace. I think he nominated Top Notch initially. He's either got very lucky or he's had the nod before declarations that Rayvin Black would run.
 
19 entries for the 2016 CH

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Desert Orchid said:
I've always regarded him as a sublime actor.

He wins a big race and outwardly he's gushing but inwardly he's thinking 'job done, gamble landed'.

Same with the misinformation he regularly puts out before races. It's all a big act.

I love him for it.

There was something he did say not long ago on the morning line when, to me, he dropped his guard for a moment. Something to do with his work in the city.
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when he said before xmas that P&C would be a challnger to faugheen..he didn't really mean it then?

eveything he says is to mislead..ok.i'll keep an eye on this now.

why do people quote him?.by now..if he misleads so much..all those that do follow trainers..including the media...would have him sussed would they not?..and yet i still see quotes posted on here about what he says..surely trainer followers would say..oh take no notice..he regularly puts people away

you first one thats ever mentioned this

i've watched him..when they show connections after SS has just passed the line..and Nicky looks like he is ready to collapse..thats just acting to kid the connections on...i didn't know all this i've got to admit

i don't particularly follow trainers as you know..but i would have expected it to be common knowledge amongst those that do tbh

i'm really shocked to hear this..he's a bloody good actor thats all i can say

i've watched him for 30 years and never spotted it..then again..i'm not alone so I don't feel too bad

is Mullins honest about his horses?..i've got him down as very honest..hope i'm not wrong about him too
 
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Desert Orchid said:
So they're talking about looking for a run at the weekend that will see his odds halve and that he might run again between then and Cheltenham.

He's on 159 but the weights for the Betfair aren't out so a heavy defeat, for which they can always blame the ground, might see him drop 4 or 5lbs.

One thing is for sure. Whatever Henderson eventually does send to Newbury will demand the utmost respect.

(Hopefully it won't matter if the one I backed a couple of weeks ago is as good as I think.)
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Peace And Co is on 11st 12lb
 
Doubt there'll be any lack of pace as TNO wouldn't need any hanging around over this sharp track; can't see him lacking fitness either, as he's made these tinpot 2 milers his métier and never needed a prep run in the past.
 
Of course, Peace And Co might run at Newbury to keep the weights down for a stable companion. It's not unheard of.
 
TheBear said:
That would be a truly bizarre way to campaign a CH contender.
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Perfectly logical. Gives the horse the chance to get rid of some fizz while not having too hard a race. 20/1 (in at least one place at the moment) because it's got top weight and all the stats are against it so a run round in midfield is merely running to expectations while ticking off the next box in its prep for the one that matters.

What about Ivan Grozny the other day?

Not saying he is CH bound, but he ensured Kalkir didn't carry any more than 11-0.
 
Careful with any bets on P&C for the Betfair Hurdle.

Whilst a second run between now and Cheltenham might be considered, Anthony Bromley mentions the Kingwell as an alternative, rather than Newbury.
 
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Henderson always complains that there aren't enough 2-mile races on the calendar.

Maybe he should give consideration to the fact that it might be because he never runs his fecking horses, and is forever waiting for another opportunity for them - no wonder he runs out of options!
 
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