The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

ffs Wilson

i'm fookin sick of this now..YES I KNOW IT WAS REALLY GOOD VALUE

but you didn't say EW did you to start with?..you said its 4/1 without the fav..thats not EW...go back and read your first post..it never mentions EW.

I only use betfair..they don't do EW WO betting..you misled me with your first post..why is this so hard to undertstand???

ffs
 
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Grasshopper said:
Let me get this straight. Arctic Fire was 4/1 to win in a Without Faugheen market yesterday?

It was a good job I didn't know about it, otherwise I would have puked.....rather than just being on the verge of it all day.
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Yes, 7/2 pre-race, 4/1 straight after for about 15 minutes before shortening into 5/2.

An utter gift.
 
Calm down EC - For gods sake man.

It's up to you whether you back it e/w or not. You don't need me to explain there are e/w options surely.
 
There's no 'Place' element on the Betfair "Without' market........I think this is what's causing the problem.

EC1, to be fair, I think Lee was only trying to be helpful - no need to be jumping down his throat about it........though I was hooting when I read it. :lol:
 
its not Lee that i'm annoyed at Grass..its Slim..with the I give up bollix..sorry Lee.

yes you are right..whenever i see WO fav..i automatically assume win..i have no experience of seeing a WO place market..i honestly did not know until yesterday that they existed

when i went to Ladbrokes and saw 4/1 2nd 3rd or 4th..i thought it were a joke..it were only 5/2 win WO on betfair..so should be a damn sight shorter than 5/2 to place..odds on i'd think
 
I ******* posted yesterday that it was the bet off all time e/w at 4/1. No one gives a **** that you only use Betfair, there are people on here that do am I'm sure they appreciate a heads up when I post a price that is clearly advantageous to bet.
 
It was Wilson that posted the 4/1 as i remember

i don't know what your problem is..but the "i give up" sh1t is not necessary

i've told you numerous times why it didn't click with me

i'm sure everone will thank you tremendously for giving the heads up about something that Wilson alredy told us..well done..you are a top man..massage massage
 
That was a very funny page to read, and what makes it even better is that I'm still not 100% convinced you've got it still!
 
Coming back to the race and Peace And Co, I've done some preliminary work on the Betfair Hurdle and made an interesting discovery - that I wasn't really aware of heretofore - regarding last season's Triumph form.

There’s been a lot of dissing of the Triumph Hurdle form lately but Hargam’s OR has gone up 3lbs this season and he’s reportedly regarded as not in the same league as Peace And Co. Henderson also said he [P&C] was the one who could maybe beat Faugheen, although that is looking a bit fanciful right now. Nevertheless, it was a very bold statement and even if he could run Faiugheen close, he might be chucked in of his current mark of 159 although whether that would be enough to beat my 33/1 ante-post sselection I doubt. The stable ran Petit Robin in this off 159 a few years ago and he ran very well in fifth. I imagine Petit Robin wouldn’t be regarded in the same league as Peace And Co. Staying with the 4yos, it should also be noted that Dicosimo, beaten 23 lengths in the Triumph, came out and posted an RPR of 150 the other day. Devilment, 10 lengths behind the third is now 9lbs higher and Petite Parisienne subsequently won the Irish juvenile championship race. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Henderson trained the first three at Cheltenham and they’ve seemingly not done much this season. I reckon that’s all part of a bigger plan.

OK, guys, I've presented you with a cross. Nail me to it.
 
Faugheen yesterdays performance is difficult to rate.
it looked an improved performance and i am going conservative at 178.
still has time to prove better than Istabraq


what a pity we have not seen him clash with un des sceaux.

rooster booster best ever performance was when beaten in the tote gold trophy.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coming back to the race and Peace And Co, I've done some preliminary work on the Betfair Hurdle and made an interesting discovery - that I wasn't really aware of heretofore - regarding last season's Triumph form.

There’s been a lot of dissing of the Triumph Hurdle form lately but Hargam’s OR has gone up 3lbs this season and he’s reportedly regarded as not in the same league as Peace And Co. Henderson also said he [P&C] was the one who could maybe beat Faugheen, although that is looking a bit fanciful right now. Nevertheless, it was a very bold statement and even if he could run Faiugheen close, he might be chucked in of his current mark of 159 although whether that would be enough to beat my 33/1 ante-post sselection I doubt. The stable ran Petit Robin in this off 159 a few years ago and he ran very well in fifth. I imagine Petit Robin wouldn’t be regarded in the same league as Peace And Co. Staying with the 4yos, it should also be noted that Dicosimo, beaten 23 lengths in the Triumph, came out and posted an RPR of 150 the other day. Devilment, 10 lengths behind the third is now 9lbs higher and Petite Parisienne subsequently won the Irish juvenile championship race. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Henderson trained the first three at Cheltenham and they’ve seemingly not done much this season. I reckon that’s all part of a bigger plan.

OK, guys, I've presented you with a cross. Nail me to it.
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I think you might be back fitting to confirm to yourself that some big plan is at hand from Hendo...its your mind confirming what you want it to believe imo

Firstly in any Triumph Hurdle..there will be many horses that don't show their best in on that day..because they are babies re hurdling...when given time and a less helter skelter scenario will improve with experience ..Old Guard an example. You can't rate the TH off such as Old Guards later exploits..its a different animal with more experience in different races..showing a higher level of ability than what he showed in the TH.

Lets say that P&C is as good as such as Our Conor...look how OC developed the following season...his forays against hardened hurdlers showed improvement each time he ran..its just possible that by CH day..he might have been good enough to win if he had not fallen. The CH was his seventh run over hurdles. P&C still basically only has a 4yo hurdlers experience..he has actually only taken part and gained anything in 4 hurdles races...none against hardened animals.

We always say its hard for a 5yo to win a CH..well P&C is only a 4yo in experience. He's a baby at side of Faugheen. He has no decent scalps re close up horses to him in races..ie ones that showed their level..that are really tough hosses to beat. Top Notch + Hargam would get eaten alive by Faugheen that turned up yesterday..Hargam has already been arse plated by him at Kempton.

The other thing as well..that i hear on the forum by many..is that Mullins only gets his horses really ready for March..so whatever Faugheen showed yesterday..there will be even more to come..look at his improvement from 1st run to 2nd..then to yesterday.

Nicky has to say that P&C can beat Faugheen..what is he going to say?.."oh yeah..Faugheen is way better than owt P&C can do"..he is his best hurdler..he's hardly likely to say he can't beat him is he?..owner would go barmy.."but Nicky you been telling me for 12 months P&C will win CH"

best thing to do if you really believe what you are saying is..lump on large..you already made your mind up Hendo has the hoss to turn him over..get on large..follow your belief

not for me personally..not with his profile

lastly..is he actually going to run in CH or betfair?..if he farts on CH day..or walks on the cracks...or a magpie belches in nearest vicinity to him....Nicky will pull him out
 
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The problem with juveniles is that their form, by its very nature, is nascent, and they have differing rates of improvement to normal novices, due to the physical development aspect associated with their age.

In my view, this makes it less straightforward to make linear lbs-for-lengths form arguments. In the case of Hargam, the uplift in his rating might just mean that he was less developed physically than P&C last year. It doesn't necessarily mean that P&C will have a similar rate of progress this year.....which I think is the assumption that underpins DO's argument on P&Cs behalf.

Of course, that rate of improvement might evidence itself in P&C next time out - he may possibly even exceed it - but then the other factors kick-in, such as the poor record of top-weights in the race, his poor opening effort this season, and the fact that that horses will have been laid-out specifically for this race, whereas it is clearly an after-thought in the case of the Henderson horse.

For me, there simply have to be better options in the race than P&C, and I would rather take my chances on the 33/1 shot, than row in with a horse who has several question-marks against him. It's one of the hottest races of the season, and isn't an event to give something the benefit of the doubt - especially when one of the the reasons for doing so, is a pretty throwaway comparison with Faugheen, which I believe says much more about Top Notch and Hargam's limitations, than it does about P&Cs talent.
 
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EC1 said:
I think you might be back fitting to confirm to yourself that some big plan is at hand from Hendo...its your mind confirming what you want it to believe imo
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Yes and no. I can't remember the last season when I didn't say I expect the previous season's juveniles to find an average of about 10lbs going forward. This makes a lot of sense in the light of the WFA scale anyway. I kind of do expect the front three to improve another 10lbs or so if those behind have done so too. Where I'm in some doubt is whether the front three last season were trained like 5yos ahead of the Triumph and therefore the improvement might not be there. I've never discounted that.


EC1 said:
Firstly in any Triumph Hurdle..there will be many horses that don't show their best in on that day..because they are babies re hurdling...when given time and a less helter skelter scenario will improve with experience ..Old Guard an example. You can't rate the TH off such as Old Guards later exploits..its a different animal with more experience in different races..showing a higher level of ability than what he showed in the TH.
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Firstly I didn't look back through the Triumph form as far as Old Guard. But while accepting the argument that they improve at different rates from 4 to 5 his big improvement does reinforce the fact that they do improve. I can easily accept that his improvement is way above average but the average is still about 10lbs.

EC1 said:
Lets say that P&C is as good as such as Our Conor...look how OC developed the following season...his forays against hardened hurdlers showed improvement each time he ran..its just possible that by CH day..he might have been good enough to win if he had not fallen. The CH was his seventh run over hurdles. P&C still basically only has a 4yo hurdlers experience..he has actually only taken part and gained anything in 4 hurdles races...none against hardened animals.

We always say its hard for a 5yo to win a CH..well P&C is only a 4yo in experience. He's a baby at side of Faugheen. He has no decent scalps re close up horses to him in races..ie ones that showed their level..that are really tough hosses to beat. Top Notch + Hargam would get eaten alive by Faugheen that turned up yesterday..Hargam has already been arse plated by him at Kempton.
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I can't argue with any of that. :)

EC1 said:
The other thing as well..that i hear on the forum by many..is that Mullins only gets his horses really ready for March..so whatever Faugheen showed yesterday..there will be even more to come..look at his improvement from 1st run to 2nd..then to yesterday.

Nicky has to say that P&C can beat Faugheen..what is he going to say?.."oh yeah..Faugheen is way better than owt P&C can do"..he is his best hurdler..he's hardly likely to say he can't beat him is he?..owner would go barmy.."but Nicky you been telling me for 12 months P&C will win CH"
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The same owner has Top Notch and Henderson wasn't afraid to say he wouldn't get near Faugheen despite the fact that there wasn't that much between Top Notch and Peace And Co in the Triumph itself. And he didn't say P&C would beat Faugheen. He just said he 'could'. Would Vincent O'Brien have said Roberto 'could' beat Brigadier Gerard? Maybe not but he obviously had a plan to make sure BG had a real race. I've said more than once that I don't believe P&C can beat Faugheen, given what I saw at Kempton. I haven't seen yesterday's race but I wouldn't find it hard to believe Faugheen is the best we've seen since Istabraq. I said as much the other day. my figure for Faugheen at the start of the season was 170++ so in my mind I was already thinking he was about 177 fully extended. I assume Henderson was working on the hope that Faugheen's rating was as good as he was, ie P&C 'could' beat him if that's as good as he is.

EC1 said:
best thing to do if you really believe what you are saying is..lump on large..you already made your mind up Hendo has the hoss to turn him over..get on large..follow your belief
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I'm on record as admitting backing P&C (10/1) earlier in the season. As I said earlier (and you tell others to read back through often enough, respectfully, my friend) I've binned that bet in my mind. Right now I don't see how P&C can beat Faugheen.

EC1 said:
lastly..is he actually going to run in CH or betfair?..if he farts on CH day..or walks on the cracks...or a magpie belches in nearest vicinity to him....Nicky will pull him out
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Very possibly. I don't really see him wanting to run P&C in the Betfair if the going is very soft but if it turned up good and P&C is genuinely a 170+ horse then they would only worry about how hard a race he might have. Once they've gone through the form they might identify one or two others who are so well handicapped that P&C could be a 175 horse and still not win.

Rooster Booster lost the 2004 Champion Hurdle at Newbury, imo, by ending up having a harder race than was necessary, and he was already rated 166. Henderson will remember that. Punjabi was top weight at Newbury but off only 150 (after being beaten 19 lengths at Kempton the time before) and he was only beaten 6 lengths in the Champion. Henderson won't run P&C at Newbury in such a way as to compromise his Champion prospects.
 
Grasshopper said:
The problem with juveniles is that their form, by its very nature, is nascent, and they have differing rates of improvement to normal novices, due to the physical development aspect associated with their age.
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Agreed.

Grasshopper said:
In my view, this makes it less straightforward to make linear lbs-for-lengths form arguments. In the case of Hargam, the uplift in his rating might just mean that he was less developed physically than P&C last year. It doesn't necessarily mean that P&C will have a similar rate of progress this year.....which I think is the assumption that underpins DO's argument on P&Cs behalf.
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Pretty much, yes, but I'd argue with good reason.

Grasshopper said:
Of course, that rate of improvement might evidence itself in P&C next time out - he may possibly even exceed it - but then the other factors kick-in, such as the poor record of top-weights in the race, his poor opening effort this season, and the fact that that horses will have been laid-out specifically for this race, whereas it is clearly an after-thought in the case of the Henderson horse.
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But is it an afterthought? Isn't there a £1m bonus for winning at Newbury and Cheltenham? Isn't that what Zarkandar chased? If Henderson believed at the start of the season that P&C 'could' beat Faugheen then rightly or wrongly he must believe the horse is 170+ because we knew then that F was 170+. In that case an OR of 159 becomes a very attractive handicap mark and the Newbury prize is worth a lot more than the conditions races before the bonus comes into focus.

Grasshopper said:
For me, there simply have to be better options in the race than P&C, and I would rather take my chances on the 33/1 shot, than row in with a horse who has several question-marks against him. It's one of the hottest races of the season, and isn't an event to give something the benefit of the doubt - especially when one of the the reasons for doing so, is a pretty throwaway comparison with Faugheen, which I believe says much more about Top Notch and Hargam's limitations, than it does about P&Cs talent.
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Yes, and I haven't backed P&C for Newbury because I have a very very high opinion of the 33/1 shot! :)
 
It surely is an afterthought, DO, given until very recently, Henderson has named practically every other target except the Betfair Hurdle.

Has he been putting everyone away? Maybe so, but if that was the case, you would have to concede that anything he says should perhaps be taken with a pinch of salt - including anything he has said about P&C having the potential to beat Faugheen.
 
The Hendo Plan:

1. We have a 170+ horse. We can take on Faugheen with this one. We have a chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
2. But he's only a 5yo so what route do we take? It's not as if he's a Supreme winner. We know they tend to be in the high 150s but how often do we get a juvenile with that figure? Do we go down the normal route or try something different?
3. Remember Punjabi? He was a 5yo, showed his Triumph form to be all wrong at Aintree in his juvenile season, ran second in the Totesport Hurdle after one well beaten run in the Christmas Hurdle and then placed in the Champion before winning the Irish one.
4. This chappie Peace And Co is a lot better than Punjabi. Maybe he can win at Newbury and then we'll see how he gets on at Cheltenham. If he can't beat Faugheen then we might already have the next most valuable prize in the calendar in the bank.
5. Maybe he'll improve enough again as a 6yo to give Faugheen a fright. If not we can go chasing with him.
6. It's just a bastarting shame Faugheen is around at the same time. Now we know how Flyingbolt's owner felt.
7. But getting him right for Fenruary-March is the priority. **** everything else but we need to let people think he'll follow the normal route.
8. Bastarting Faugheen.
 
I see the Racing Post are saying Faugheen the best since Istabraq..So much for the legend that was Hurricane Fly who in my opinion beat much better horses in their prime than Faugheen has faced to date.

The trouble with ratings is you get ratings based on the ratings of others. Too bad if the rating of those others is complete nonsense.

Master Minded being rated higher than Kauto Star and Denman springs to mind when he beat the grossly over rated Voy Por Ustedes who's form at 2 miles was basically crap.

In the same list as they have Faugheen at 176 they have Dato Star at 175. Data Star was never a 175 horse as long as his ass pointed backwards. He beat Wahiba Sands who ended up useless and Relkeel when Relkeel was at the end of his racing days. He actually got a OR rating of 177 which is laughable when you look back.

This happens way too often and too often to use ratings as a guide between eras.

For me you have to use your eyes and your memory and ask yourself how would Faugheen eg have faired against Bula...the way I look at it is if Bula was in the position Arctic Fire was in the Champion Hurdle he'd have gone past Faugheen like he was a tree like he id everything else for 21 consec wins or whatever it was.

Istabraq would have won by 10 lengths if he got that close to him.

Faugheen's ok and the Media will blow him up to Superstardom as it sells racing but so far he's beat nothing and until a real good un comes along he'll continue to beat nothing.

Bula Beat Persian War Comedey Errors beat Bula Lanzarote beat Comedy Errors who won the title back. Monksfield Sea Pigeon Golden Cygnet Monksfield were all top class in the same era and to this day people remember them.....who the hell will remember Arctic Fire or Nichols Canyon in 20 years time?

Faugheen is very good but unless something of note comes along to boost his already inflated rating he's gone as high as he's going to go.

Anyway Min will kick his ass next season if he gets past Peace and Co and Company this year....I know a champion when I see one and this Min is different class to any hurdler in the last 16 years he is the new Istabraq trust me.

What price Min for the 2017 Champion Hurdle now?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The Hendo Plan:

1. We have a 170+ horse. We can take on Faugheen with this one. We have a chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
2. But he's only a 5yo so what route do we take? It's not as if he's a Supreme winner. We know they tend to be in the high 150s but how often do we get a juvenile with that figure? Do we go down the normal route or try something different?
3. Remember Punjabi? He was a 5yo, showed his Triumph form to be all wrong at Aintree in his juvenile season, ran second in the Totesport Hurdle after one well beaten run in the Christmas Hurdle and then placed in the Champion before winning the Irish one.
4. This chappie Peace And Co is a lot better than Punjabi. Maybe he can win at Newbury and then we'll see how he gets on at Cheltenham. If he can't beat Faugheen then we might already have the next most valuable prize in the calendar in the bank.
5. Maybe he'll improve enough again as a 6yo to give Faugheen a fright. If not we can go chasing with him.
6. It's just a bastarting shame Faugheen is around at the same time. Now we know how Flyingbolt's owner felt.
7. But getting him right for Fenruary-March is the priority. **** everything else but we need to let people think he'll follow the normal route.
8. Bastarting Faugheen.
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The Alternative Hendo Plan

1. Neck a bottle of VSOP for breakfast the morning of your Open Day.
2. Fuelled by Remy Martin, talk-up your horses as much as you feel is needed, to pacify the assembled Owners and Press.
3. Spend next 4 months prevaricating, and missing multiple opportunities to run your horses.
4. Once you have run out of options, complain about how the Pattern fails to cater for your 2 mile hurdlers.
5. Run your horse under wholly sub-optimal conditions.
6. Get humped senseless in the Champion Hurdle, by a horse you never had any chance whatsoever of beating anyway.
7. Blame the defeat on the Pattern, stating you could never get your horse quite right because of it.
8. Watch your wealthy, chinless-wonder of an Owner suck this tale up like a Dyson Esplendido.
9. Wait for said chinless-wonder to roll another half-dozen prospects into your yard, following the Breeze-Up Sales
 
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I must be missing something with Peace & Co. He had a decent Juv season, has shown nothing this season, and people are saying he's the main challenger to Faugheen? Does he not actually have to do something on the track before he gets the plaudits? Hell of a lot of faith in NJH.
 
Tanlic said:
In the same list as they have Faugheen at 176 they have Dato Star at 175. Data Star was never a 175 horse as long as his ass pointed backwards. He beat Wahiba Sands who ended up useless and Relkeel when Relkeel was at the end of his racing days. He actually got a OR rating of 177 which is laughable when you look back.
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Never, ever, ever disrespect Dato Star within earshot of me again, or I'll jump on a flight to Thailand, Kill Bill my way through your hordes of 10yo towel-boy 'helpers'.............and choap yer fkin heid aff!!
 
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:) @ Grass

going back to traineritis..i was joking a bit..but i'm really starting to think hendo has that and Mullinitis..i think he is scared to death of p&c running again and bombing out..he just daren't let go of the dart in case it misses the board

i could buy DO's theory re the Betfair if hendo hadn't have named other races he would run in. In theory..if hendo is right about p+c..then he is well in it. I'm just getting the impression that he is desperately clinging on to p+c being what he says he is..and that desperation makes actually running him very hard to do.

I think that along with some punters..trainers are also getting overawed with the ammo that Mullins has and its clouding what there usual modus is with horses..its making them even more cautious before Cheltenham. Maybe all trainers now are even more focussed on Cheltenham than ever before. In the past it was...well we have to think about peaking for Cheltenham..now its..we have to super peak for cheltenham as not only is everyone trying really hard..we have what looks like insurmountable hosses to beat from the Mullins juggernaut.

Last season..it seemed to me that Nichols had made his mind up to mop up races every saturday..rather than make cheltenham his main aim..he did that successfully..but it showed that the Mullins effect had even got to him. I thought it was a brilliant strategy by him. It seems to me that Hendo has taken the opposite view...I'm not letting Mullins put me off and changing my plans..i'm aiming mine at the festival..bugger the races leading up to it. Its a brave strategy..but you need ammo to go down that road..and even Nichols last year accepted he hadn't got it and mopped up early mid season races instead

I think the Mullins effect is getting to many trainers..whenever Hendo is interviewed he seems to mention him.
 
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