The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

EC1 said:
i could buy DO's theory re the Betfair if hendo hadn't have named other races he would run in.
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I blame my brother :lol:

He's really good at reading henderson and he was the one who phoned me to mention exactly this point. He said, "What if Henderson decided during the summer this horse could win both the Betfair and the Champion but felt he needed to make sure he kept quiet about the first target, preserving its handicap mark by getting it beat or not running it?" (This was weeks, not days ago, maybe round about the time the entries for Newbury were published.)
 
If that is Henderson's approach, EC1, the gaping flaw in his plan is that he would have no real clue whatsoever as to what his horses were capable of. If he doesn't run them beforehand, how can he tell how good they are - something which applies more to juveniles than any others? He can only ever learn so much on the gallops, and would basically be going into Cheltenham blind, if that was his approach. It doesn't make any sense......unless you are necking a bottle of VSOP for your breakfast each morning. :whistle:

More generally, I dunno that trainers are particularly spooked by Mullins success in recent years - it sounds more like envy when they mention him, rather than fear.

For me, the principal difference between Mullins and the rest, is down to one thing - he has the best talent-spotters in the game. Ricci didn't even have to pay through the nose for horses of the quality of Vautour, Douvan, and Faugheen. Sure, they are expensive enough, but not extraordinarily so, because Mullins' team see things in them before their careers are even off the ground, and snap them up before they have achieved anything significant. In relative terms, Ricci has been paying bargain-basement prices for the best-possible quality horses.

DO, your brother has been reading too many Tom Clancy novels!
 
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dato star relished hock deep ground ..and his rating is over egged due to exaggerated winning distances to be fair..was unbeatble in bad ground..thats not the case with Faugheen..his ratings have been gained on ground that hasn't disadvantaged others.

thats not a fair comparison Tanlic imo

but lets say that ratings are no good Tanlic..how would you be able to distinguish between horses without them? ..lets say..vroom vrrom's win on saturday compared with Istabraq's Champion Hurldle win. Without ratings..how would you weight/value those two races without using a rating?
 
Tanlic said:
You tell em Euro....1 1/2 lengths from a boat and they are comparing him to Istabraq.........fooking blasphemy:lol:
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both of you keep decrying the rating..but would both have happily given P+C the same rating had it been he handing out Sundays beating ..looks like pocket talk to me..oh i've backed P&C so will just keep saying..faugheen isn't much

neither of you ever put forward up a coherent argument as to why its over rated..

Tanlic..tell me how we judge one horse against another without ratings ..you have ducked that question:)

lets see some actual analysis behind the statements..any daft bugger can say..oh he's not rated that..well lets see some reasons why and then use the same reasons to show why Istabraq was a stone better than Faugheen
 
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EC1 said:
dato star relished hock deep ground ..and his rating is over egged due to exaggerated winning distances to be fair..was unbeatble in bad ground..thats not the case with Faugheen..his ratings have been gained on ground that hasn't disadvantaged others.

thats not a fair comparison Tanlic imo

but lets say that ratings are no good Tanlic..how would you be able to distinguish between horses without them? ..lets say..vroom vrrom's win on saturday compared with Istabraq's Champion Hurldle win. Without ratings..how would you weight/value those two races without using a rating?
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I never said rating are no good but lets face it if they were any good we would just back the top rated in every race. Every tries it? you'll go skint in amonth if you do.

The point I was making is rating are era bound.....in other words you are compared to what you are beating in your year/s. Too bade if everything else is a notch down from the average because they are still going to pick up a Group 1 here and there and the Handicapper will rate them about the same as the runner uppers way back in 66 or whenever.

The nasty habit he has is to play on numbers if it suits his game play he'll put a horse up but if he can't fit it into the figures he'll come up with the second ran below his mark.

It's like robbing peter to pay Paul and making sure you are not caught out.

Didn't you say the other day Faugheens run worked out at 182 or something? of course the Handicapper wont give him that figure because that would put him on a par with Night Nurse and he'd be laughed out of his job.

You are probably right Faugheen is 182 in comparison to Arctic Fire because he is so damn ordinary but he's not a 170 horse if you want to compare him to Istabraq IMO........Istabraq won 4 years on the trot at Cheltenham beat French Holly like he was a tree at Aintree and absolutely oozed class He beat 2 Champion Hurdle winners and whats more important the second one went on to win the Champion Hurdle after Isty beat him and franked his form no end.

If you Think Faugheen deserves to be regarded in the same breath because of some stop watch I'm sorry you will never get many people to agree at this stage.....
 
Using Hors La Loi III as a mechanism to bolster Istabraq's collateral form lines, is a nonsense.

He would have been beaten out-of-sight by Valiramix that day, if the Pipe horse hadn't come down three-out.
 
Tanlic said:
I never said rating are no good but lets face it if they were any good we would just back the top rated in every race. Every tries it? you'll go skint in amonth if you do.

The point I was making is rating are era bound.....in other words you are compared to what you are beating in your year/s. Too bade if everything else is a notch down from the average because they are still going to pick up a Group 1 here and there and the Handicapper will rate them about the same as the runner uppers way back in 66 or whenever.

The nasty habit he has is to play on numbers if it suits his game play he'll put a horse up but if he can't fit it into the figures he'll come up with the second ran below his mark.

It's like robbing peter to pay Paul and making sure you are not caught out.

Didn't you say the other day Faugheens run worked out at 182 or something? of course the Handicapper wont give him that figure because that would put him on a par with Night Nurse and he'd be laughed out of his job.

You are probably right Faugheen is 182 in comparison to Arctic Fire because he is so damn ordinary but he's not a 170 horse if you want to compare him to Istabraq IMO........Istabraq won 4 years on the trot at Cheltenham beat French Holly like he was a tree at Aintree and absolutely oozed class He beat 2 Champion Hurdle winners and whats more important the second one went on to win the Champion Hurdle after Isty beat him and franked his form no end.

If you Think Faugheen deserves to be regarded in the same breath because of some stop watch I'm sorry you will never get many people to agree at this stage.....
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where did i say Faugheen was as good as Istabraq...the handicapper has rated him the same on that run..and its up there with Isty thats for sure..when he has won 3 CH's i might agree he "as good"...its one very good run though..does one run make a horse "better"..you tell me..you seem to have a mysterious way of putting horses in order..share that way with us..i'll look forward to it

where did i say he's better just because of a stopwatch?

why the demeaning..some stopwatch comment?

you make me laugh..you quote race times out of context when you want to try and make a point...then demean others who use times when it doesn't suit you.

like it or not..race times are part of analysis.

Ever heard of Andy Holding?

what figure would you have given P+C had it been him Sunday?
 
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anyone that listens to WH radio knows him..ask Rory what he thinks of him Col

will hill radio has 13K followers on twitter..so i'll guess there must be at least one or two people on here that knows who he is
 
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Yeah Andy is on losing streak and his -3 on the WH tipster table what's he got to do with the price of coal?

You are of course correct about times but they are also very misleading at times.

Phil Bull sold the idea to millions but the he was also privy to more info than most and used it well.

You of course never said Faugheen was better than Istabraq you said his performance was the best by any hurdler this century.

To be honest when you said this century I thought you meant the last 100 years but if you are talking since 2000 then I would still say the Fly was better

There's no Solwit around and he was a real good un on his day.

I am just not a fan of Arctic Fire and I honestly think Peace and Co is a much bigger threat than you might think.

in other words ratings don't count when it comes to Champion Hurdles.

Actually how many top rated have won the last 10????








I
 
Even I am prepared to admit that Faugheen looks equally as good as Hurricane Fly...............but I doubt he will be churning-out 170+ performances at 9yo and 10yo.
 
EC1 said:
anyone that listens to WH radio knows him..ask Rory what he thinks of him Col

will hill radio has 13K followers on twitter..so i'll guess there must be at least one or two people on here that knows who he is
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I listen every day EC and only watch Betfair which I can do for free, Commentaries might be only 1/2 apart
 
yes was on yesterday as well..he's a good judge....all his is based on clock solely..complete slave to speed figs

by the way..have you seen the thread on TRF about Faugheen?
 
Grasshopper said:
Even I am prepared to admit that Faugheen looks equally as good as Hurricane Fly...............but I doubt he will be churning-out 170+ performances at 9yo and 10yo.
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Your arse he does you traitor:cool:.......The fly took the scalps of Peddlars Cross Oscar Whisky Thousand Stars Solwhit when they were in their prime and still had the beating of the brilliant Our Conor and Jezki when he was an old age pensioner.

WTF has Faugheen beat to date that were in their primes? Atrctic Fire and whtsitsname?
 
thing is with .."what has it beat"..situation could easily be levelled at Istabraq as well...look at See You Then...never gets mentioned hardly..triple CH winner

its not just what they beat ..its how far really isn't it?

if the 2nd best hurdler is rated 163..and a horse is only besting him a length when they meet..fair comment..not only not beat much..not by far either

how can you quantify if beating a 163 by 15 lengths is worse than beating a 170 hoss 2 lengths..in second case..yes you beat a better horse..but by a lot less

its a sliding scale..if i had a hurdler and it beat a 150 horse 25 lengths..i'd think i'd got a pretty good horse..wouldn't you? If after you had just watched your horse do that..and someone said..yeah..but what has he beat?..i'm pretty sure you would do a sum with that person after decking em:)..150+25 = 175. It don't matter what you have beat..if you hammered them 25
 
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