The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Grasshopper said:
Quote from you not 5 minutes ago......

"no idea..all you guys hang on these trainers quotes......."

What other possible interpretation could there be, other than "all you guys" (whoever the fu*ck they are), hoover-up everything trainers say like saps, and only EC1 is shrewd enough to be a sceptic?
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i think you read too much into posts tbh..i have pm'd you anyway

the all you guys was in response to eagerness of trainer quotes thread..thats all

i've not called anyone a sap or abused anyone or deserve weekly or sometimes daily reprimands.

if i replied to someone how you have above i'd be getting..you need some treatment comments..links to shrinks posted etc
 
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There's no comparison between Fly and Faugheen. Fly thrived and showed his best on slowly ran races while Faugheen is a 3 miler that shows his best over moderate-strong 2 mile races. Plus yesterday Morgiana's field quality surpasses anything that Fly met, bar his CH wins. 2 flat winners that are rated 111 and 112, a novice hurdler only defeated once(when tactics were the cause, UR another) with 4 G1 wins, and two 140+ horses as outsiders.

The race only developed from 2 out, a farce and Faugheen needed a couple more yards to catch Nichols. If the pace had been a strong one there's no question who would've won, just like there was no question Faugheen would destroy AF in a solid race after he got as close as 2 lengths in a moderate ran CH. Faugheen also made 2 big mistakes, as usual, while NC jumped all of them like they weren't there. There's no reason to diminish how good Faugheen truly is, other than settle personal scores on your favourite horses.
 
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the race didn't only develop from 3 out though Aughex..the pace figures clearly show that..early and late are even....the pace was even throughout generally..it was no jog and sprint
 
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EC1 said:
the race didn't only develop from 3 out though Aughex..the pace figures clearly show that..early and late are even....the pace was even throughout generally..it was no jog and sprint
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The finishing figures = 106% suggests otherwise.
 
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Aughex said:
The finishing figures = 106% suggests otherwise.
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Without knowing your timings i'm not seeing that..maybe you could post your timings up and pars distances measured from etc..these are mine

From 2 out [2.82f] NC ran 43.95 ..that works out at 96.1% compared with a par of 96.5%.....Colla Pier's was 101.4%

Most handicaps run over the 2 mile distance here average at 96.5%..pairofbrownies [2014] = 94.7%...beef to heels [2012] = 96.8% etc.

Previous Morgiana's..HF [2012] = 107.8%......HF [2013] = 104%.......HF [2014] = 92.2%

jog and sprint races are easy to see ..this year wasn't one....nor was last years race where they went hard

even if you measure from other points as long as they are constant then you will get easy comparisons with previous years..the 106 you quote needs putting in context of all the other races you have timed. what do you get for the handicaps and last 3 runnings of the morgiana for instance...if saturdays race was 106 on your calcs then you must HF in 2012 and 2013 at about 117% and 114%..and last year about 102%
 
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106% is timeform's(https://www.timeform.com/racing/images/Sectionals-leaflet.pdf) relative finishing speed compared with the speed average during the race. An 100% means its an even ran race, below means it was a strong pace early on and they finished slow, above 100% means a slogish ran race with a strong finish. Yesterday 106% from 2f, on Soft ground suggest they went relatively slow early on and they had alot left in the last 2f. This didn't favoured Faugheen at all which stays 3 miles and over 2 miles needs an evenly ran affair to show his best, especially against a very good horse like NC that loves soft going and has flat speed.
 
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The suggestion that Faugheen needs 3m is laughable. The Champion Hurdle he waltzed home in was run over 3 secs slower than the earlier Supreme.
He has plenty of speed normally, just didn't have it yesterday.
 
Aughex said:
106% is timeform's(https://www.timeform.com/racing/images/Sectionals-leaflet.pdf) relative finishing speed compared with the speed average during the race. An 100% means its an even ran race, below means it was a strong pace early on and they finished slow, above 100% means a slogish ran race with a strong finish. Yesterday 106% from 2f, on Soft ground suggest they went relatively slow early on and they had alot left in the last 2f. This didn't favoured Faugheen at all which stays 3 miles and over 2 miles needs an evenly ran affair to show his best, especially against a very good horse like NC that loves soft going and has flat speed.
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yes..i know about finishing speeds and %..what time did you get from 2f out?..i time from the 2nd last hurdle to finish to do my finishing pars...do you know what the par is for the 2furlongs here?..not all courses are 100%

pars are only relevant in context to data for that course..all mine are taken from past races from 2 hurdles out..that way i know what the track par is. You can then make a judgement..just quoting a % doesn't mean much on its own..hence i've put all my figures up so you can see the context. My timings are from a point where they are in motion at the start as well..not based on overall official time which can be misleading
 
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i've just checked the video..i can't see how you can time accurately from 2f out..there is no clear way of doing it..the 2f mark is in the middle of nowhere on the bend in

lot easier to time from 2nd last hurdle..more accurate results that way imo..if you do so and then put the times in context with other races it gives you something to compare with
 
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Aughex said:
There's no comparison between Fly and Faugheen. Fly thrived and showed his best on slowly ran races while Faugheen is a 3 miler that shows his best over moderate-strong 2 mile races. Plus yesterday Morgiana's field quality surpasses anything that Fly met, bar his CH wins. 2 flat winners that are rated 111 and 112, a novice hurdler only defeated once(when tactics were the cause, UR another) with 4 G1 wins, and two 140+ horses as outsiders.

The race only developed from 2 out, a farce and Faugheen needed a couple more yards to catch Nichols. If the pace had been a strong one there's no question who would've won, just like there was no question Faugheen would destroy AF in a solid race after he got as close as 2 lengths in a moderate ran CH. Faugheen also made 2 big mistakes, as usual, while NC jumped all of them like they weren't there. There's no reason to diminish how good Faugheen truly is, other than settle personal scores on your favourite horses.
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Had there been pace throughout the Champion AF would have been up the ars* of Faugheen. Faugheen won it through his gears not the other way round.
 
Aughex said:
There's no comparison between Fly and Faugheen. Fly thrived and showed his best on slowly ran races while Faugheen is a 3 miler that shows his best over moderate-strong 2 mile races. Plus yesterday Morgiana's field quality surpasses anything that Fly met, bar his CH wins. 2 flat winners that are rated 111 and 112, a novice hurdler only defeated once(when tactics were the cause, UR another) with 4 G1 wins, and two 140+ horses as outsiders.
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More drivel.

Flat ratings and 140+ hurdlers? Are you for real, Jolly Boy John? Away and have a lie down in a darkened room, FFS.
 
Check out his Rabobank win in 2011 Aughex
His best ever imo
Slowly run it was not(apart from the dawdling start)
 
Grasshopper said:
More drivel.

Flat ratings and 140+ hurdlers? Are you for real, Jolly Boy John? Away and have a lie down in a darkened room, FFS.
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flat ratings put finishing speed into context on a slowly run race on soft ground where its hard to make ground and 140+ hurdlers those 2 outsiders finishing 25-30 lengths back.
 
EC1 said:
yes..i know about finishing speeds and %..what time did you get from 2f out?..i time from the 2nd last hurdle to finish to do my finishing pars...do you know what the par is for the 2furlongs here?..not all courses are 100%

pars are only relevant in context to data for that course..all mine are taken from past races from 2 hurdles out..that way i know what the track par is. You can then make a judgement..just quoting a % doesn't mean much on its own..hence i've put all my figures up so you can see the context. My timings are from a point where they are in motion at the start as well..not based on overall official time which can be misleading
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Yea sorry I had a look yesterday night and thought Timeform measured it from 2f out, but apparently they did from 4f: Closing sectional (4.00f): 55.60s. They also have their own measure of overall time, theirs is 3m 55.70 vs official 3m 58.10
 
https://twitter.com/Timeform/status/666330278001057792
CT9H226WEAAnCsX.png:large

TF analysis excerpt: A race that produced a huge shock, Willie Mullins landing a fifth consecutive Morgiana Hurdle, though not with the horse everyone expected, Nichols Canyon announcing himself as a big player in this division, making all to end the unbeaten record of Champion Hurdler Faugheen in a contest that didn’t begin to unfold until 2 out.
 
i'm not sure they mean unfold as in little pace Aughex..most races unfold from two out..especially hurdle races no matter how they are run.

I keep early pace figures as well for this trip and NF was bang on par early doors for runnining efficiently compared to a number of handicap hurdles i've timed to create the pars. The overall time compared well with the handicap as well..when the morgiana is slowly run early ..as in 2013..the morgiana throws up an overall time slower than the handicap..in that year City Slicker won hcap it ran 4 seconds faster for instance..this year the morgiana was 5 seconds faster than the handicap..a 9 second difference...2013 morgiana was slow early yes...but for NC to run 45 lengths faster in comparison to the handicap alone tells you it was no dawdle on sunday. Everything points to race run to even pace..overall time..sectionals early and late..all say the same thing

You have to make your own mind up..i go on my judgement based on what I record..its served me well
 
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I can choose to either trust your analysis in relation to other races, or trust timeform for the average speed and finishing sectionals which suggest the race was not evenly ran. I can also choose to trust my eyes when I look how DM keeps his hands on NC and he was holding him up without stretching him at all.
 
Fair to say the three main players were happy with the pace and the outsiders were out of their comfort zone from the second last.
Is it possible that unbeaten horses can be over rated until they are beaten ?
Jumping errors were always a Faugheen feature but as he kept winning no one took due notice and why should they ? But they should now imo.
NC picked up like the Grade 1 horse he is and despite fiddling the last still won.
I imagine both horses will improve for the race and the "soft lead "option for either will not be an option when they meet again, wherever that may be.
NC a free running horse so needs little encouragement to go quickly .
 
Aughex said:
I can choose to either trust your analysis in relation to other races, or trust timeform for the average speed and finishing sectionals which suggest the race was not evenly ran. I can also choose to trust my eyes when I look how DM keeps his hands on NC and he was holding him up without stretching him at all.
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Firstly..timing races between hurdles isn't hard...its easier than trusting the furlong markers over the jumps though which seem to be shoved anywhere particularly in Ireland..anyone can time races and come up with similar figures..no mystery to timing..no real trust needed tbh

I am surprised that TF used the 4f marker tbh.....its handy though because its next to 3 out on the screen..well it is this year..and thats one of the problems with trying to assess anything from Irish racecourses..the reason i picked 2nd last hurdle to do my calcs was because it appears to be in the same place every year ...so that historical figures can be used to make a par. But as TF have used 3 out i ran my calcs again using 3Hurd out as 4f as they have done to actually put the 106% into context with past races..context with other times is the main key..which is missing with your assumption that 106 is a slow race.

after re-doing them from 4f out....the average finishing % [evenpace] from past races over this sectional is 105% ..which suggests to me that 3H out isn't actually 4f from home..but..no matter ..the point is that 106% for Nichols is only a fast finish in your mind because you are assuming that 100% is even pace..but its not the same at every course...sometimes thats down to the overall distance being wrong or the sectional not being what it should be or course terrain...those probably apply here ... just putting 106 down on its own and expecting it to mean anything seems odd to me. Finishing % need historical data to mean anything.

So you now have more than TF gave you...yes NC was 106% from 4f ? out.....but even pace using past races.. is 105%...so NC has run evenly

I still prefer the timings from 2 out..but both sets when used in relation to past data ..to each other ..tell the same story about sundays race
 
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just going back to that link you posted from TF Aughex..it looks to me like the race has been frowned upon from a form rating angle from the start of their analysis..they only give NC a form rating of 155..thats very low..if you take the view that its an egg and spoon race like they appear to have with such a low rating then in nots surprising they try to suggest the race only started 2 out and that the race is a bit of a non event.

Time will tell i suppose

its all about opinions really isn't it?
 
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They always do that EC1, they don't give much credit to the end and starts of a season, thy only rated Faugheen 160 on P'town win by giving AF an easy 8 lengths beating. But with regards to time, the finishing figures have no relation with the form, if they show they finished with an 106% then its a fact that the average speed of the race was pretty low compared with the finishing speed. It did not favoured Faugheen who needs fast run races, especially against good competition. Time will tell I agree.
 
the 106 isn't really a fact of anything really as i've tried to show you..if the par is 105 using their sectional..which it is when you measure a number of races..then 106 is near on even pace..but i'm bored with it now..eats yer life up this game

at end of day people make their own minds up about races within a few minutes of them finishing imo and won't ever change their opinion from that point on..its demonstrated on forums day in day out...i think some at TF do the same by the looks of the form rating they dished out to this race

time to move on
 
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