The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

edgt said:
NC is one of the slickest jumpers I have seen; he reminds me a little of the Fly.
He is of similar height and build.
Faugheen's jumping has always been an issue, it may well have been the difference today.
Young David Mullins gave him some ride; remember Ruby gave him a similar ride in Deloitte Novice hurdle at Leopardstown and NC was similarly electric.
Under rate NC and this performance at your peril is what I say; it is his fifth Grade 1 over hurdles; only 18 more needed !
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Jumping never helped but neither did the fact he's run a stone below his best. NC doesn't even come into calculations and is not worth discussing re the Champion Hurdle IMO
 
He certainly wasn't at full match fitness, but Faugheen is a powerful looking horse whereas the other two are both smaller, narrower types. Nicholls Canyon in particular has the typical build of a flat middle distance horse, so the visual can be misleading. From the TV pictures I'd say both of the first two had plenty left to work on though, whereas Wicklow Brave looked pretty tight.

What's more worrying is Ruby saying Faugheen was hanging from a long way out. That's often a sign of something physical if he hasn't shown it before. I suspect something will come to light as Willie would have have been certain he was fit enough to beat a couple of his own. He wouldn't have risked his unbeaten record for fitness. If something does come to light it'll be interesting to see if Douvan's novice chasing career is put on hold. It's a bloody shame he's being sent chasing to keep him apart from Faugheen as he could be very special indeed.
 
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i was going to say that. He didnt look happy under pressure too. pulled head around a bit.between last two as well. also its hardly unusual for mullins horses to fade after bright starts to a career. I had him down as unbeatable in March but not now
 
It definetly adds more excitement to the build up to the race itself
Looking forward to seeing what Peace & Co is made of now, The International/Bula should be made for him.
 
clivex said:
i was going to say that. He didnt look happy under pressure too. pulled head around a bit.between last two as well. also its hardly unusual for mullins horses to fade after bright starts to a career. I had him down as unbeatable in March but not now
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It'll be interesting to see if there is a physical problem. Didn't Trudj pick up on The New One's problems last season? It'll be interesting to to see her thoughts on Faugheen.
 
Was a bit shocked to see him beaten like that..must have ran at least a stone below his best...maybe The New One could be the one hahahahaha
 
using past data to create sectional pars and comparing the Morgiana with the handicap hurdle won by Colla Pier points towards these ratings for the Morgiana:

Nichols Canyon = 164
Faugheen = 163
Wicklow Brave = 162

The Morgiana was a true even pace [96.1% finish compared with a par of 96.6%) where the winner has produced a time in line with ability....perfect ride... the handicap hurdle that was just a little less than even pace (101.3% finish) and could have been run about 5 lengths faster overall.
 
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That looks reasonable, EC1. By way of comparison the RPRs are 162, 161 and 160, which suggests they think Faugheen ran about 10lbs below his Champion Hurdle win.
 
looks that way Grey... i'm wondering if as Faugheen has developed he now needs further than 2 miles,,he has form at further..i just wonder if he might struggle to show best at 2 miles now..just a thought..i wonder if he is a bit like ROR
 
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EC1 said:
looks that way Grey... i'm wondering if as Faugheen has developed he now needs further than 2 miles,,he has form at further..i just wonder if he might struggle to show best at 2 miles now..just a thought..i wonder if he is a bit like ROR
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He only became a two miler at Kempton last Christmas, all his hurdles form before that was over further.
 
Grey said:
He only became a two miler at Kempton last Christmas, all his hurdles form before that was over further.
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yes..thats what i'm saying..ROR was a horse that wanted further as shown in his early form like Faugheen..he got the CH through being with a strong pace..maybe Faugheen is now reverting to needing further..just throwing a thought out there really..he might come out and blitz the oppo next time but Mullinssaid he buried NC at home earlier last week
 
Discussion in the RP today suggests they're wondering if Faugheen left yesterday's race on the gallops the other day. I think that's entirely possible.
 
Arthur, Faugheen of course won the G1 2-mile novice at 2014 Punchestown Festival too, when they didn't manage to get Vautour ready for the race,

Mullins used to (unintentionally?) leave Hurricane Fly massively undercooked for the Morgiana every year, and it was routinely his worst performance of the season. I strongly suspect the same has happened with Faugheen, and I think there is a danger in taking the result too seriously/at face value - certainly, I wouldn't be thinking in terms of "Now needs 20f+".

Sunday's race could very-well turn out to be an anomaly, insofar as the rest of the season is concerned, and I wouldn't want to be a layer at current Champion Hurdle odds. He could easily leave this run miles behind him over Xmas.
 
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he didn't leave him undercooked though..he was better than the winner at home a few days before

no..i'm not making any decisions about him just on this run..just airing a suspicion..he certainly looked there like a horse not able to muster enough speed to pass NC
 
Mullins has just said the work run may have brought NC on a bit more than Faugheen. I must say Faugheen did look very big around the chest area yesterday.
 
no idea..all you guys hang on these trainers quotes..if he says its fit then it should be fit...or whats the point of having threads with trainer quotes on if you can't believe a word..thats why generally i don't take much notice of them..but in this case it just seems odd that before race hoss is ready to go..then after its..ooh well maybe it weren't..guess guess guess seems order of day to me...if this were Henderson he's be taking some stick i feel.

i'm not that bothered whether it were fit or not tbh..i'll watch next race and make more decisions on the hoss then.
 
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I think Willy knows better than most how fit his own horses are, Grassy, and how fit they need to be to deal with their opposition, which increasingly comes from his own stable anyway. As a by-the-way, Hurricane only seriously underperformed once in the Morgiana but got away with it, against weak opposition.

At the moment it's legitimate to look around for possible explanations of a run which has left trainer and jockey perplexed.

Before making any conclusions I would want to know why he was hanging in the straight.
 
I think it's legit to question the run, Art - my contribution was only around it being unwise to draw any firm conclusions from it.

The comparison with Hurricane Fly is legitimate. Regardless of who he faced, HF's Morgiana runs were routinely below his best; mainly because he improved with each race. And to answer the wider-point made by EC1 (though I've absolutely no idea why he directed his barbed comments at me), Mullins doesn't always get it right.

He was concerned about HF being fit enough to do himself justice in the 2012 ICH, and was amazed when he won that race hard-held in bottomless ground.

No trainer gets it right all the time; something that goes for Nicholls, Henderson, O'Neill, Mullins and plenty of others - because it is an inexact science

As per my initial contribution, anyone wanting to lay Faugheen now can fill their boots if they want to. I'm not stopping them. But I do think that he will be better judged at Xmas, and anyone jumping one way or another now, is taking a chance. There's very little motivation to be forming a strong opinion at this stage, imo.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I think it's legit to question the run, Art - my contribution was only around it being unwise to draw any firm conclusions from it.

The comparison with Hurricane Fly is legitimate. Regardless of who he faced, HF's Morgiana runs were routinely below his best; mainly because he improved with each race. And to answer the wider-point made by EC1 (though I've ansol;mutely no idea why he directed his barbed comments at me`), Mullins was concerned about HF being fit enough in the 2012 ICH, and was amazed when he won that race hard-held in bottomless ground.

The point? Trainers don't get it right all the time; something that goes for Nicholls, Henderson, O'Neill and plenty of others. It is an inexact science, hence even a gainer won't always know.

As per my initial contribution, anyone wanting to lay now can fill their boots if they want to. I'm not stopping them. But I do think that Faugheen will be better judged at Xmas, and anyone jumping one way or another now is taking a chance - there's very little motivation to be forming a strong opinion at this stage, imo.
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there were no barbed comments..was just passing an opinion..is that allowed or do i have to be pulled up at every touch and turn?..lets just talk horses and leave the digs out please
 
Len Madeiros said:
It'll be interesting to see if there is a physical problem. Didn't Trudj pick up on The New One's problems last season? It'll be interesting to to see her thoughts on Faugheen.
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yes... agree

in addition to this, it would be more worrying if it wasnt clearly a small physical ailment and perhaps a sign that the horse may have soured a bit?

either way, if i was a layer i would certainly lay the 6/4

EC is right to state that there was no indication that the horse "needed the race" and it was seemingly opposite vibes.
 
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EC1 said:
there were no barbed comments..was just passing an opinion..is that allowed or do i have to be pulled up at every touch and turn?..lets just talk horses and leave the digs out please
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Quote from you not 5 minutes ago......

"no idea..all you guys hang on these trainers quotes......."

What other possible interpretation could there be, other than "all you guys" (whoever the fu*ck they are), hoover-up everything trainers say like saps, and only EC1 is shrewd enough to be a sceptic?
 
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The trouble with trainers quotes is that everyone seems to remember the ones that dont play out and carry them round as a life long grievance to be repeated at every stage to the smelly bloke in the bookies who claims every race is fixed or to every forum poster whos eating pedigree chum in an overcoat tonight because they blew it all over the weekend

I listen to them. if it goes wrong so what? On balance many trainers can give useful heads up. its one more piece of information.

Anyone see nickys interview before sacres race? it wasnt what he said but the way he said it. anyone who took that for what it was, won and won well
 
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