The "Won't Win" Thread

Good luck EC. I will join you on MM, even though I do like the sire.

Wolver .2.10 Royal Birth . Lay . Currently 2.18.

It's possibly a better angle trading Broadway Ranger in running for a better return or even dutching 2nd & 3rd fav's but I decided to simply lay, with a portion laid already and a top up in the hope he goes odds on. Kirby is on the fav in the first, so he may well contract after that race.

C&P from the "What You Backing" thread;

Quote:
WOLV 14:10 ROYAL BIRTH

All I could come up with today. Clocked well enough LTO, you'd think, but the odds are crap.
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I initially thought it was banker material for multiple bets, simply on it's time lto and the fact his debut run looks rock solid ( horse finishing last rated 86) but the more I looked, the more I thought he was either a lay at short odds if he contracts further or back 2nd fav Broadway Ranger.

Broadway Ranger's trainer has some impressive December stats from a small sample:

6/8= 75% SR.

The two losers came from one horse, Infortual who looked a problem horse anyway, having never raced at 2yo and those two runs for Hills were her final runs, even though it was only her 3rd.

Take her out of the equation makes it 6/6. His January SR is also surprisingly good and his 2yo SR in December is 3/3.

BR looks more exposed than RB but the combination of the drop back in trip and more importantly, the trainers stats made me change my mind and oppose the fav, although Williams has started to pick up a better class of 2yo.

I've also had a brief look at what Qatar racing have sent him and it doesn't look a great bunch, with Nova Champ finally getting his head in front on the 7th attempt, being his only 2yo winner for the owner.

A 2yo s/r of 2/49= 4% really doesn't put me off opposing him, even if the winners of come fairly recently.
 
1.50 Leopardstown

Zaidpour 2.16

doesn't stay 3 miles well enough to warrant the price..i think Rule the world is the most likely winner ..breeding says will stay.. Mala Beach is also a danger on breeding
 
3.25 Wild Blue Yonder 2.34 - chance taken as stable horses not running well
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Well done SW.

Sth 2.30 Severiano. Lay @ 1.8

Quite possible this could struggle on the surface and still win as looks to much the strongest profile but did disappoint lto and the sire stats on this surface are poor enough to make it a lay, even though this is a desperate race.
 
Sth 2.30 Severiano. Lay @ 1.8

Quite possible this could struggle on the surface and still win as looks to much the strongest profile but did disappoint lto and the sire stats on this surface are poor enough to make it a lay, even though this is a desperate race.
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Finished 2nd @ 1.96

Taunton 1.45 Horizontal Speed. Lay @ 2.46

Out of my comfort zone on the NH and I was hoping to lay at 2.2ish, but I still want to take this on.

His last defeat at 11/10 looks even worse on further inspection with the likely winner (1.1 in running ) falling at the last in a 7 runner race. I really don't think that was a stronger race than today's and that faller, My Wagon Or Yours has failed to boost that form, although it was on awful ground.

Although it looks likely he needs further, he's yet to prove it and the two likely contenders may well benefit from the step up.

Beaten @ 1.27/1.83/1.25 in three of his last four runs makes him an easy lay, win or lose.
 
Taunton 1.45 Horizontal Speed. Lay @ 2.46
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Won at 2.26. :(

Nearly made matters even worse when I went and laid it again IR @ 1.58 after jumping the 2nd hurdle, which to me seemed a crazy price, but managed to trade that back @ 2.2.

I'm really going to have to tread carefully with anything over the sticks.
 
South 12.30 Mr. Burbidge. Lay @ 1.88

This horse is off my to folllows list, yet I went against it lto and Laid this last night with a view to trading back, with no real opposition.

However, I've decided to let it ride.

If it was over 2 miles, I really don't think the price would be much shorter, yet that is his distance.

he does have a turn of foot for a stayer but I really hope they try and forse the early pace on Summerfree, to at least trade out out for a 80% return.
 
You want to see me notes on the horse SJ. You would mistake him for Frankel :lol:

On of those situations were I would lumped at the 2.3 that was available late on. I was initially thought Nicholls could have been more aggressive early on, but the time was decent for a 4 runner race.

The dilemma next, will be do I back the 2nd next time out.
 
One of those things Doomster, didn't back it myself today (didn't get home in time). One thing i try not to do though is lay one that i've done well out of previously, has a habit of coming back to bite you! Did you notice that N Mulholland has won 6 races on the trot now.
 
One thing i try not to do though is lay one that i've done well out of previously, has a habit of coming back to bite you!
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You have a point, but it really was the early price that I wanted to be against.

Should have really just taken the early price on the 2nd and taken an even money profit on it win or lose.

Although it was a match, MB is turning into a decent money spinner, goes at varying trips and going.

What I did win on the race I just blew laying Ann Stokel in the place market @ 1.33. I thought Tylicki was a shoe in to out ride her in a finish. :mad:
 
Won't get fat at the price, but The Liquidator (1.35) got outpaced in the Champion Bumper, and it's hard to see him having the speed for Kempton, no matter how deep the ground.
Looks likely to lead at some stage, so might be worth an in-running lay; for those who do such things.
 
reet hard said:
Won't get fat at the price, but The Liquidator (1.35) got outpaced in the Champion Bumper, and it's hard to see him having the speed for Kempton, no matter how deep the ground.
Looks likely to lead at some stage, so might be worth an in-running lay; for those who do such things.
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Took him on myself, reet. Didn't think the Cheltenham form was much cop.
 
4.40 captain Morley @ 2.5

will possibly need a stronger pace to go at as he looks to need further in time.

2nd fav should improve more and Special Miss is no write off.
 
Southwell. 2.50. Billowing. Lay at 1.61.

My only slight reservation with this one is whether this is coming here instead of Wolver, were Gosden is trying to avoid.

Gosden maidens in January: 11/37+ 30% SR. +£17.00

Initially looks banker material but his Southwell runners are normally "last chance saloon" types and worth taking on.

Deriviatives was the last stable runner here and she failed in 9 maidens for the trainer.

The previous winter maiden winner was Bravestofthebrave, who was rated 90 after that win but sold on for 4k.

His maiden runners in January at track at Evens or lower:

4/11: LOST
4/9: WON
8/13: LOST
10/11: LOST

Not a lot to go on, but not a great stat.

Also worth considering Mackay for Godsden at track at Evens or less; last five runners have all come 2nd at:

4/7, 2/5,1/8,4/11, 4/7. AWFUL.

Although it's a case of the horse needs to bomb, as there is little in opposition, there is little sire stat UK form, but most of his winners have come beyond 6f, so she may possibly get outpaced.

Win or lose, looks a decent lay.
 
Interesting Doomster. I was looking to play Whispering Star who is from the same family as War Command and Declaratioin Of War, so those stats strengthen my thoughts.
 
Interesting Doomster. I was looking to play Whispering Star who is from the same family as War Command and Declaratioin Of War, so those stats strengthen my thoughts.
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Interesting snippet just on ATR; "Aiden O'brien brings his Breeders Cup runners here".

At least makes you think she will handle track. I looked at her and thought she looked an in running type, possibly slowly away and staying on late on.

I do like the jockey booking as well.
 
Lingfield 12.30 La Estrella. Lay @ 1.59

Turned over last year in same race at similar odds, by a Gary Moore runner, who at the time looked closely matched ratings wise, but has deteriorated 20lb.

I'm not claiming LA has declined that much, but he's avoided this track through the years and the faster surface may not help.

Only two in opposition, but I couldn't be a backer at anything near that price.
 
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