The "Won't Win" Thread

Some serious pace in the 7.00 at Kempton, and that could well be the downfall of Grey Mirage (currently 5/4 best). Though he's run some crackers against good opposition, he's yet to prove he can last home when it's served up to him from the start, and there are plenty in here who'll be doing just that.
Mont Ras might be the one to benefit, though his stable's form is hardly encouraging.
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Great post Reet. Really surprised it was so short.

Well done.
 
southwell 12.40 Quadriga. Lay @ 2.48

Certainly looks worth taking on. Could easily get outpaced early on and has three genuine contenders, even if it is a desperate race.

Kept may just improve for move to fibresand.

Mysterious Wonder looks to have a better chance with the trip although the jockey is a huge concern.

The fact Bapak Pesta tries surface again and klast run may well be good enough.
 
Cheers.

southwell 12.40 Quadriga. Lay @ 2.48
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3rd.

I know the 2yo's are very nearly 3yo but although Hot Stock looks a decent fav and looked to have every chance over an extra 1f, the sire stats deteriorate with extra distance for the 2yo.

5F: 14.4%
6f: 9.6%
7f: 8.4%
8f: 0. ( Something like 0/18 ???)

This track is probably the toughest when trying to predict whether they will stay or not, as they can quickly come off the bridle.

The winner of the previous race also helps the lay as it eases any concerns about Masterpavers chances of handling track.

Poor race but laid @ 2.32
 
Don't go much for these betting threads but surely triolo is a lay in tomorrow's ascot silver cup? Ground will be all wrong by then and Hennessy is no easy race to get over
 
Sth 3.20 Returntobrecongill. LAY @ 1.62

Initially looks a slam dunk until you look at the result of Mishrif earlier who probably had a similar chance of winning even though it was a tougher race.

Waverunner is one of my trainer/filly/ inside 7 day qualifiers and should handle track.

Just way too short for me.
 
some good shouts..one a day is enough Doom..don't look for em..let em come to you;)

9.15 Dundalk

Shield ...2.5 at the mo

if it weren't trained by AOB would be 6/1+..a slow horse
 
some good shouts..one a day is enough Doom..don't look for em..let em come to you
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I wish it was that easy EC. I just cannot predict the market, so most are price based.

The last one may have been poor on the basis I only had three running for me, but I still thought it was a dreadful price, even if it did win by half the track.
 
Ling 12.20 Examiner. Lay @ 2.06

The fav last year got turned over at 4/5, so I'm praying for a repeat.

Got some bits of this 1.94, as it looks a 7/4 shot to me. Having checked that the trainer has a 24% SR with 2yo in December does temper confidence, but simply looks too short. His 4th on debut probably reads better than his win on 2nd run, which actually doesn't look much better than Galaxy's run over C&D, although Examiner achieved that time with ease. Galaxy hopefully will show improved form with the visor.

I backed First Experience ( even though poor a/w sire) lto when winning and the form of that race was given a boost of sorts with the 2nd winning an Auction maiden last night by 3.5 lths. Another hopefully for the shake up.

Impulsive Moment is the one who could swing the market, being the most expensive purchase in the field and can be forgiven a debut run at Newbury on bad ground. Trainer won this race last season.

Capers Royal Star looks regressive although a change of tactics resulted in a slight improvement and a better pace may help.

Hard to know what kind of pace the race will be run at, but Examiner's last win has thrown up nothing with the 3rd being well beaten in a maiden since, so quite happy to take him on at the price.
 
good one Doom

got to put up At Fishers Cross...1.7 is way too short..the ground looks pretty slow there which will suit Reve..throw in salubrius and the way AFC jumped last time and it looks a cast iron lay at that price
 
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Spot on, EC !
FC well beaten anyway when fell at the last.

Good call too in the 12:20, Doom. ( Left it alone as gone to 2.4 when I saw it).
 
Lingfield 1.30 Fine Vintage. Currently 2.32

Not got fully matched and got to admit to being a little hesitant on account of superb jock on board and the relevance of a "2yo" stat at this time of year.

However on the positive side I really don't like Montjeu on this track, especially at 2yo.

Sire has failed to produce a 2yo winner this year, very few are even sent to this track at 2yo and record isnt the best.
 
Huge drift in price out to a current 3.45 from the 2.16 this morning ~ 11.00am :)
 
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Very nice Doomster-today was a day off for me but I liked your reasoning -took the 11/10 on Gosdens horse in a match bet and the reverse forecast.
 
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