Tingle Creek Chase Sandown Park Sat Dec 4th 2021

Desert Orchid said:
Any evidence that CPS can run his race in UK?
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Any evidence that he can't? Personally I think Chacun ran flat in March and Willie should have skipped the DRF with him last year given that the horse had never had a full campaign before (only two runs in each of the previous two seasons). I expect that three runs before the festival will work better now if that's the route they take. My only worry would be that perhaps the old course doesn't suit him (the downhill being right where he'd usually pour on the pace and win the race).
 
Depends what evidence you think is needed. CPS certainly ran below form in March, and maybe it was a one-off, but perhaps it was because he’s a poor traveller?

Beef or Salmon and (arguably) Hurricane Fly are two horses who never quite showed their very-best form when racing in the UK.

If you think the Champion Chase effort was a one-off, then 6/4 is probably a decent price……but you’d want to be confident it was the case before taking that price, I think.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Depends what evidence you think is needed. CPS certainly ran below form in March, and maybe it was a one-off, but perhaps it was because he’s a poor traveller?

Beef or Salmon and (arguably) Hurricane Fly are two horses who never quite showed their very-best form when racing in the UK.

If you think the Champion Chase effort was a one-off, then 6/4 is probably a decent price……but you’d want to be confident it was the case before taking that price, I think.
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Yes, that would be my train of thought too.

Could it be that this weekend's sortie is all about seeing if he can run to his best form over here?

If he doesn't run to form there has to be every chance we won;t see him over here again.
 
Willie Mullins when being asked for his Cheltenham Banker, he without hesitation said Chacun Pour Soi.

He put the disappointing run at the Festival 25 lengths behind him at Punchestown after being backed like money had gone out of fashion.

For some unknown reason Shishkin is 1/3rd of the price he is for the QMCC which defies logic in my book..this is no Sprinter Sacre or Altior for that matter

At this stage I would have them joint favouries at 3/1 and only because of Nicky's reputation in the race
 
Tanlic said:
Willie Mullins when being asked for his Cheltenham Banker, he without hesitation said Chacun Pour Soi.

He put the disappointing run at the Festival 25 lengths behind him at Punchestown after being backed like money had gone out of fashion.

For some unknown reason Shishkin is 1/3rd of the price he is for the QMCC which defies logic in my book..this is no Sprinter Sacre or Altior for that matter

At this stage I would have them joint favouries at 3/1 and only because of Nicky's reputation in the race
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You keep repeating this “Shishkin is no Sprinter Sacre/Altior” mantra, yet he is a winner of a Supreme and an Arkle, so he isn’t exactly behind where these two horses were at the same stage in the careers.

You may be proven right in the long run, but it is simply too early to draw this sort of conclusion.
 
Grasshopper said:
You keep repeating this “Shishkin is no Sprinter Sacre/Altior” mantra, yet he is a winner of a Supreme and an Arkle, so he isn’t exactly behind where these two horses were at the same stage in the careers.

You may be proven right in the long run, but it is simply too early to draw this sort of conclusion.
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A agree for you it is. For me? naaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!:lol:

As far as I'm concerned his form doesn't even come close to what Chacun achieved at Punchestown

As for Energumene the jury is still out on him.
 
Shishkin is just emerging from novice company. It’s entirely normal that he hasn’t achieved as much as a horse who has had twice as many runs over fences, with seven of them coming in open company. He simply hasn’t had the opportunity to post a big number yet.

You’re not comparing apples with apples, and you’re making no allowance for the fact that Shishkin almost certainly still has improvement to come, after only a handful of steeplechase runs.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Shishkin is just emerging from novice company. It’s entirely normal that he hasn’t achieved as much as a horse who has had twice as many runs over fences, with seven of them coming in open company. He simply hasn’t had the opportunity to post a big number yet.

You’re not comparing apples with apples, and you’re making no allowance for the fact that Shishkin almost certainly still has improvement to come, after only a handful of steeplechase runs.
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Easy to argue that Shiskin is ahead of Altior at the same stage of their careers.
 
reet hard said:
Surprised at you, Fist. Hendo seems to think he'll be up there with his other big two?
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He is definitely behind the other big two at this stage. There simply hasn’t been the standard of horse in opposition to change that.

Shishkin is entering a completely different world and I can't see how Nicky can be confident that he is on a par with those that have gone before.

His Supreme win was very good although you have to ask questions about Abracadabrs

Since then in 5 outings he's had nothing to beat and his average price comes out at 1/5 fav so weak has the opposition been.
 
Altior's Arkle was almost exactly the same level as Shishkin's, based on ORs and/or Timeform ratings of the horses in opposition, Fist. There is really nothing to separate the horses that they beat in their respective races.

Sprinter Sacre appears to have faced a much higher-class of opposition in his Arkle, though most of them turned out to want a minimum of 2m4f, and couldn't really be considered proper 2m chasers (Cue Card, Menorah, Al Ferof etc). That's not to denigrate what Sprinter achieved in beating them (his was a terrific performance), but it's nevertheless worth mentioning, in the context of this discussion.

Coming out of their respective Arkles, there would be next to nothing between Altior & Shishkin, imo..........though Sprinter was probably a little way ahead of the pair, in terms of promise. You seem to have Shishkin down as some sort of average (or possibly even sub-standard?) winner of the Arkle, and I reckon that's far from the case. Time will tell.
 
Grasshopper said:
Nico de Boinville has seemingly hurt/potentially broken some ribs in a schooling fall "this morning" from an un-named horse.

Coincidence? Is it beyond the bounds of possibility that the fall was in fact from Shishkin yesterday morning? :ninja:

Appreciate this is a bit tin-foil-hat, but when you can't trust a word the trainer says, then exotic conspiracy-theories will eventually start getting tossed around the parish.........by me, at any rate. :lol:
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Nico de Boinville is jocked-up on three for Henderson at Haydock tomorrow, which is presumably 'legit' given all three races are 24-hour decs. Some recovery that from potentially broken ribs.

I wonder if Shishkin might have recovered just as quickly? :ninja: :whistle: :lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
Nico de Boinville is jocked-up on three for Henderson at Haydock tomorrow, which is presumably 'legit' given all three races are 24-hour decs. Some recovery that from potentially broken ribs.

I wonder if Shishkin might have recovered just as quickly? :ninja: :whistle: :lol:
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Apparently spent 4 hours in A&E then got fed up waiting and went home.
 
Grasshopper said:
You keep repeating this “Shishkin is no Sprinter Sacre/Altior” mantra, yet he is a winner of a Supreme and an Arkle, so he isn’t exactly behind where these two horses were at the same stage in the careers.

You may be proven right in the long run, but it is simply too early to draw this sort of conclusion.
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Hard to determine when he refuses to run him. I still believe I could have played chess for Ireland, which nobody can contradict because I never played chess.
 
Defi De Seuil out of the Tingle Creek - coming too soon after Ascot, and ground a bit lively for him.
 
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