Tingle Creek

M

Marb

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I looked for a thread on this but couldn't see one.

Seems as if Shiskin is an intended runner and on his best form I think he will be hard to beat.

Will he be in his best form though, we'll find out Saturday.

Interested by the bookies cutting the odds of Gentleman De Mee. He was poor the last day but can surely do better than that. Either it's real cash that is driving his price in or just the bookmakers cutting him probably in the belief that he was too big at 14s or 16s in the first place.

Edwardstone another really interesting contender.

Greaneteen I'm not sure what to make of.

Hoping they all turn up.
 
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Gentleman De Mee more than likely cut, because both Henderson and King have said their horses won't run unless the ground is acceptable.

Sandown currently Good (G/S) on the Chase course, and if it doesn't get any deeper than that (some showers predicted, but not much), I'd expect both horses to be withdrawn.

Anyone know if Sandown are watering this week?
 
I think Greaneteen will prove to be the best of the GB 2-milers this season. He looks pretty invincible at Sandown too. Nicholls really rates him - that’s good enough for me.
 
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Yeah it could well be Gentleman De Mee will like good-to-soft ground as his two best runs last season came on this type of ground.

I see some comments just now on the Racing Post website from Paul Nicholls saying along the lines of 'the clerk of the course can't water to change the going, he can only water to maintain it'.

He also states Greaneteen wants good-to-soft.

I hope Nicky will run Shishkin on good-to-soft, as if he doesn't, that surely means he would be a doubt for the Champion Chase aswell.

That said most of his form is on soft, so strictly speaking as Grass aludes to Nicky Henderson could pull him out.

It will be what type of good-to-soft it is and more importantly what type Nicky thinks it is that will be key.
 
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I think 6/1 is fair on GdM. I'd never judge a Mullins horse harshly first time out, esp not if the race isn't a Grade 1.
 
Grasshopper said:
Gentleman De Mee more than likely cut, because both Henderson and King have said their horses won't run unless the ground is acceptable.

Sandown currently Good (G/S) on the Chase course, and if it doesn't get any deeper than that (some showers predicted, but not much), I'd expect both horses to be withdrawn.

Anyone know if Sandown are watering this week?
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This going thing is getting a bit silly now Grass I think. No way is any ground firm or good to firm to scare any one off. Do you think this is getting silly? Look at CH, Henderson don't run him one week, then it looks like he actually ran him on a faster surface a week later. I am finding this going thing seems to be an obsession now with trainers. It might just be me but ffs, it is like some trainers are getting really picky about the going.
 
For the Mullins horse, it is not the ground that puts them off but the fact that the horse is viewed as a spring horse and this as his second race is not viewed as most favourable - Patrick mullins said a version of this yesterday
 
I reckon Skishkin will be ok on good to soft.

He's always appeared to me a nimble and slender horse.
 
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I’m waiting for the following comments regarding Shishkin, within the next 48 hours:

“there will be other races; the ground is actually jarring; we rushed him slightly; his bones are quite fragile”.
 
I wouldn't be rushing to take evens about Shishkin.

His ailments according to Nicky were plentiful and in different parts of his body.

No one can be sure that one won't raise it's ugly head again.

As a precaution Nicky won't have him 100% or even close IMO

I reckon he'll be fit enough to run well without winning like Sprinter was oh his return.

What's important now is will he come through it and be 100% sound afterwards.

Winning is not important having a sound horse to work with is.

I hope for racing's sake I'm wrong and he hacks up but I certainly won't bet him or bet against him.
 
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Tanlic said:
I wouldn't be rushing to take evens about Shishkin.

His ailments according to Nicky were plentiful and in different parts of his body.

No one can be sure that one won't raise it's ugly head again.

As a precaution Nicky won't have him 100% or even close IMO

I reckon he'll be fit enough to run well without winning like Sprinter was oh his return.

What's important now is will he come through it and be 100% sound afterwards.

Winning is not important having a sound horse to work with is.

I hope for racing's sake I'm wrong and he hacks up but I certainly won't bet him or bet against him.
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Agree with that. The 2/1 Greaneteen tempts


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Tanlic said:
I wouldn't be rushing to take evens about Shishkin.

His ailments according to Nicky were plentiful and in different parts of his body.

No one can be sure that one won't raise it's ugly head again.

As a precaution Nicky won't have him 100% or even close IMO

I reckon he'll be fit enough to run well without winning like Sprinter was oh his return.

What's important now is will he come through it and be 100% sound afterwards.

Winning is not important having a sound horse to work with is.

I hope for racing's sake I'm wrong and he hacks up but I certainly won't bet him or bet against him.
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It was a bone condition, Fist.

You are either still currently suffering from it in its entirety on your not I reckon, (according to what I read about it after the Champion Chase anyway), and I trust Nicky Henderson enough to know whether the horse is over it or not.

I won't be taking evens either but he's still the one they all have to beat.

The 2/1 on Greanateen winning could really rely on Shiskin not getting round from a betting point of view, (although I still have no intention of betting a coin, lol).

I just hope they all run..

No prizes for saying it could either be the start of a great comeback from Shiskin in the 2 mile chase division or the end of his career were he to say, be pulled up again.
 
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I’m sure the horse is as OK as possible. Whether it hurt him before and will have left a mark on him mentally is what the risk is. My own horse who suffered an horrific accident on the way back from hunting (five years ago tomorrow) where he broke two ribs and suffered a huge flesh wound, is fine to ride. And I got him back out hunting the following season. But he would go for half of the day and then start to panic so I retired him as mentally I could see he wasn’t coping and it wasn’t fair to him. It was a huge shame as he’d finally turned in to the most amazing hunter...not bad for a 5/6 furlong horse with a club foot.
 
The market has priced in two things, I reckon; certainty that he runs, and uncertainty about his level when he does.

Shishkin wouldn't be going if he wasn't 100% sound, but the uncertainty (imo) surrounds a combination of his fitness, and de Boinville's instructions.

Shishkin hasn't raced since March, and didn't get much further than a mile when he did. Connections (presumably) were also quite easy on him when he did come back into training, until they were satisfied they had something close to the horse they had before the QMCC. That doesn't mean he won't be fit, but he's perhaps not going to be quite as fit as they'd like for a FTO effort. And even if he is fit enough to largely do himself justice, it's almost impossible that he'd be 'Clarence House fit.......or even 'Desert Orchid fit'.

So it's probably safe to assume that - even if everything goes smoothly - he'll run to a figure considerably lower than what we've perhaps been used to. If that equates to 10lbs (not an unreasonable guesstimate, imo), it probably puts him into something of a battle with Greaneteen, which begs the question; just how much will they throw at Shishkin, if it comes down to a scrap? My guess is "Probably not a great deal', as connections will surely be looking much further ahead.

As Even money chances go, there's too much downside to back Shishkin, and 2/1 looks a reasonably compelling price about Greanateen, any way I look at it.
 
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Good post, Nick. However I fear the situation is simpler than that, alas, and that the incredible fight he put up to win at Ascot has left a permanent mark.
 
Grey said:
Good post, Nick. However I fear the situation is simpler than that, alas, and that the incredible fight he put up to win at Ascot has left a permanent mark.
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I can’t really buy into that argument, Art.

The race didn’t leave much of a mark on Energumene, and for me, it was just more of the same from Shishkin in the Clarence House i.e. hitting the line like a train; something he has done throughout his career, going all the way back to his novice hurdling days.

I remain hopeful that the QMCC was simply an abberation, and that we see him return to his very best - I just doubt that will happen on Saturday.
 
Wouldn't have Shishkin on my mind, has a helluva lot to prove,imo.
Greaneteen won the Haldon comfortably in what looked a prep for this. PN reckons he's twice the horse than when beaten 2l in the QMCC. Looks good to me at2/1.
 
Really excited for this. Greaneteen is some sight over C/D, Arkle winner, Aintree winner, and a 180 horse at his best.

No doubt that at their respective peaks, Shishkin is the better animal but I do wonder about him slightly over the railway fences. He can miss one and if he's not in a rhythm there, given how quickly those fences are onto you, he could be in a bit of a hole. If that happens, Nico is surely not going to get really after him.
 
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