Today's Fancy

Redcar 3:10 – Ullswater e/way – The meeting and this 1m1f EBF 2yo race looks to me to have been introduced into the racing calendar last year – Where it also been named the Double Trigger Maiden Stakes after a superb horse trained by Mark Johnston, who won his first and only race at Redcar as a 2yo over 1m1f. Ullswater is beautifully bred out of Singspiel and Dams sire Unfuwain with Northern Dancer, Height Of Fashion and In The Wings in the pedigree, there is plenty of stamina influence which will essential for a 2yo at this distance, especially first time out.
The market has the Godolphin horse (Badeel) as odds-on fav, also having his first run and obviously fancied, but I’m not keen on this horse’s Dam’s influence as apart from Badeel’s half-brother (Ma Ani won 7f polytrack maiden at Dundalk first time out for Dermot Weld and wasn’t placed again in 9 more races) none of her 2yo progeny have run well and this horse looks poor value and I’m very tempted to Lay.
Godolphin did win the race emphatically last year but their horse on that occasion was having his 4th run and showed good form coming into the race. Mark Johnston also had a runner in the race having his 2nd run that finished fourth, but not as well-bred, as in stamina influence in my book.
I’m willing to take an e/way punt on the fact that the trainer would like to win this race named after one of his most popular horses and in Ullswater an early Feb foal, whose been given plenty of time, I’m guessing he’s been laid out for this. 10pts e/way – currently 10.5 win and 2.12 place (may drift?)

Good luck if you play.(It may be wise to see if ay positive market moves first)
 
LUKE said:
Kotkidy could turn out to be a headbanger but I think he is a bet at 5s in the next at Listowel.
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I'd say he will be the type of horse that will either win or bomb out(including a fall).....I was quite taken with him as an individual when I saw him at Punchestown. Very typical deBromhead type.
 
Slievecorragh rocketed up my list of favourite horses when bolting up in a couple of handicap hurdles last winter (and going close in a couple of others) despite the burden of my money and I think he has a bit of mileage in him yet on the flat. I've had it in my head for a while that he doesn't quite get 2m on the flat and his last run in Down Royal seemed to bear that out, as he certainly travelled a lot better than his finishing position that day suggested I thought.

1m6f around Listowel should be far more to his liking, especially given that the track seems to favour those who race handily and that there doesn't seem to be a great deal of pace likely (something likely to play against both Dolphin Bay and Anshan Dreams). Has a Mullins hotpot to contend with as well but I'm hopeful he can do me another good turn.

Slievecorragh owes me something as well after fluffing his lines at Galway (pocket talking alert - he actually ran a highly encouraging race!) and then having the audacity to win at Killarney whilst I was on holiday. Haven't looked at tommorrow's race in any detail but I thought an 8lb rise actually looked fair enough.
 
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Gallery Man looks a big price to me for a horse who won just a few months ago off a lower handicap mark, was dropping back to 2m 6f for his two most recent runs at Galway and Killarney ran he ran a fair enough race. He has to turn around the form with King of Redfield from Galway and also Duroob from the same race but he's back at the scene of that win in June and 12/1 looks a fair each way price to me (though I have to stress Irish handicap hurdles are far from being my strongest subject).
 
Slievecorragh unplaced I see. Never sighted? Apologies Hamm - following me would have you living in the car boot I'm afraid!

Slieveardagh will probably skate in without my money now.
 
Don't be silly, no need to apologise - good write up. Agreed with your reasoning when I looked into it. Twas only a few pennies.
 
Clonmell
4:50 – Finisk Rose e/way – was unlucky L/T/O when running on and was bought down – Ruby Walsh an eye-catching booking as he last rode this horse two years ago and romped home by 11 lengths in a maiden hurdle. Looks on a decent mark if confidence hasn't been affected.

Curragh - Irish Cesarewitch
5:00 – Boulavogue e/way – Runs well fresh and improved 10lbs over hurdles but races of 1lb lower than his last two flat races one of which was a good 3rd behind Rites Of Passage – His last 4 September runs read: 1-2-1-2 @ 16/1 worth a small e/way punt imo.
 
Interested to see if the Wachman filly can step up on her debut win. Impressive as she was that day I thought she very much got the run of the race and don't think it's totally outside the bounds of possibility that either Peahen or Banimpire will reverse that form today. All in all she looks well worth opposing.
 
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swedish chef said:
Redcar 3:10 – Ullswater e/way – The meeting and this 1m1f EBF 2yo race looks to me to have been introduced into the racing calendar last year – Where it also been named the Double Trigger Maiden Stakes after a superb horse trained by Mark Johnston, who won his first and only race at Redcar as a 2yo over 1m1f. Ullswater is beautifully bred out of Singspiel and Dams sire Unfuwain with Northern Dancer, Height Of Fashion and In The Wings in the pedigree, there is plenty of stamina influence which will essential for a 2yo at this distance, especially first time out.
The market has the Godolphin horse (Badeel) as odds-on fav, also having his first run and obviously fancied, but I’m not keen on this horse’s Dam’s influence as apart from Badeel’s half-brother (Ma Ani won 7f polytrack maiden at Dundalk first time out for Dermot Weld and wasn’t placed again in 9 more races) none of her 2yo progeny have run well and this horse looks poor value and I’m very tempted to Lay.
Godolphin did win the race emphatically last year but their horse on that occasion was having his 4th run and showed good form coming into the race. Mark Johnston also had a runner in the race having his 2nd run that finished fourth, but not as well-bred, as in stamina influence in my book.
I’m willing to take an e/way punt on the fact that the trainer would like to win this race named after one of his most popular horses and in Ullswater an early Feb foal, whose been given plenty of time, I’m guessing he’s been laid out for this. 10pts e/way – currently 10.5 win and 2.12 place (may drift?)

Good luck if you play.(It may be wise to see if ay positive market moves first)
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Runs in 3.30 Bath
 
Leicester 4:10 - Transeggselence e/way - I can't understand why Transeggselence is 9's on betfair - on a line through En Fuego who beat Hajjaan 3/4L -- Transeggselence finished over 11L in front of En fuego in his Newmarket maiden and must be worth an e/way shout. Hajjaan is odds-on?
 
Few bets for today:

Dream Eater to place in the first - Available at 3.9. I think Delegator will win but this is the value bet.

Vision D'Etat - Multiple G1 winner at this trip who's had a light campaign and has the top man on board.
 
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