Today's Fancy

Big recovery mission on Araucaria in the next at Wexford.Heavy lay at under 4/5.Needed the full Ruby magic last time and touched 95 in running.The colours she is carrying should make her shirter then she should be.
 
It's almost midnight, so I can almost legitmimatley call this a "today's fancy"!

As a few bookies had priced up early, I have had a glance at the 3.30 from Leicester:

Fastnet Storm - Frontrunner, running ok over further, win in conditions but mostly raced on faster going, chance.
Guilded Warrior - Poor run last time when more could’ve been expected, pace war with top weight?
Extraterrestrial - Hasn’t placed for over a year but runs off lowest mark for over 2 and a half years, handles conditions and running in better races,
Kaolak - Dropping back in trip on flat, had run over hurdles on Saturday, doesn’t appeal as a likely winner.
Gold Rules - No evidence of acting on conditions either way, dropping back in trip, but high in the handicap, others more appeal
Heddwyn - Hard to weigh up after only 2 runs, ok level of form, too high in handicap? Passed over at odds available.
Jordaura - Still too high in handicap? Last couple of runs nothing special, doesn’t appeal.
Medicinal Compound - Lightly raced, and winner by 11l last time out in similar conditions, 2 runs before that poor though, bit of an unknown quantity, penalised for latest success.
Kavachi - Does have winning form at higher mark and took advantage of drop in the summer, climbed again, but still on winnable mark, handle conditions ok, jockey bursting for winners, big price.
Agony And Ecstasy - Too high in the handicap and unsure about the conditions.
Green Destiny - Another difficult to weigh up, form indicates that should be competitive off this mark, able rider claiming too, no evidence of acting in conditions, early market signals not positive, passed over but wary of market support,.
Nazreef - Winner on AW on Saturday, conditions inconclusive, well in on AW mark but will reproduce that back on turf? Shrewd stable, early market moves stable, respected.
One Scoop Or Two - Acts in conditions, but too high in handicap to consider a likely winner.
Zebrano - 2lb higher than only winning mark, but placed off mark 3lb higher than this. Will act in conditions, good run on penultimate start gives good shout at the price.

Now am obviously not the only one to have seen the price of Zebrano, but I was quick enough for some 20/1 if not the 25's and 22's. Of the others I'd give a chance to, I'll probably shortlist my forecast perm to:

Zebrano
Nazreef
Fastnet Storm
Kavachi.
 
A couple of others that stand out from the early priced races:

4.20 Southwell

Lucky Punt - back to a winning mark at a course for specialists after running in claimers at the other AW venues.
Taikoo - another down to a decent mark with good course form, wouldn't expect to see it drift and win...

3.40 Kempton

Trickier to find some value than the other division at 4.10, but I would expect Eolith to be competitive and have great respect for the connections around this track. Highly Regal has good course form and is on a decent mark, on his run with Get Carter 2 races ago he'd have a great chance, but was dissapointing and much further behind GC last time.

4.10 Kempton

Dinner Date - 25/1 seems a big price for a horse who ran an eyecatching race under todays pilot in August, over CD. Settled a long way back that day having been drawn 5 of 13, hopefully, off a 4lb lower mark today, drawn 2 of 10 won't be too much of a hinderence.

Gallantry - similar comments apply as to DD, most recent form is less encouraging though and poorly drawn, but 25/1 factors these points in.
 
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Respect your judgement, Steve however Extraterrestrial has really come down in the weights and is one I have been watching. Generally wins big prizes at decent prices and I have a feeling that he was ready for LTO. Whilst that does not mean he will be spot on tomorrow he is the one I would go for.
Perhaps I'l also put Zebrano and Heddwynn in small forecast with ET. BTW At least I'm not the only one doing the work at this time of night.
 
ET is definitley one I wouldn't rule out and don't think you'll beat the 7/1 that Hills are offering at the moment. Ran his best race for a while lto and as you say could've been readied for that. On his best form would pick them up and carry them, I'll probably include him in fcasts to be on the safe side.
 
Keen betting heat for a Monday afternoon and both ET and Zebrano blue across the oddschecker board, have played them both at the bigger prices in multiples with other selections above.
 
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I backed Dubai Prince the last day after being told he was decent but not top notch. The form would say otherwise so maybe he's surprised them but not one for me at a short price. I like Eva's Time today. There was so much talk about the ride Murtagh gave Chattel House in that race that no-one saw the easy ride given by smullen to Eva's Time. She's named after the owners daughter so reckon she's gonna be a good one. I've lumped on anyway, just sorry I missed the 7/4. It could be an early end to my days betting!!
 
Two for me today, Sheer Genius in the 4.05 Galway at 11/1 and Rebel Fitz in the bumper at 11/4
 
Steve T said:
Green Destiny - Another difficult to weigh up, form indicates that should be competitive off this mark, able rider claiming too, no evidence of acting in conditions, early market signals not positive, passed over but wary of market support.
Click to expand...

Balls. Zabrano was murdered halfway up the straight too.
 
Glenquest 28/1 (William Hill) Galway 5.05

This will run much better than the price suggests.
 
Well done on Lucky Punt Steve.

In the bumper in Galway im very very sweet on Rebel Chief. Well touted when winning on debut, didnt get the best passage that day, and has improved again since. Il be piling in, the only concern is strong word for the Kiely horse but it will have to be exceptional to beat this today. 3/1 currently.
 
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