Today's Fancy

I didn't have a bet in the race (my double was dead) and I have nothing against Hanagan, nor am I madly in love with Buick.

However, I think the Musidora was an example of when the winning jockey made the difference. Buick seemed to urge Joviality home, whereas for a couple of strides Hanagan seemed to be more intent with seeing how Barefoot Lady would respond (rather than forcing her to do so).
 
Well done boys and some hard luck stories, the thread is on fire but i will probably dowse the flames with my selection. Balmont Mast the young rogue runs in the 6:30 3yo sprint handicap and has a proper chance of turning the tables with the favourite at the weights. In my mind looking at the race in Tipp he would have run her very close if he hadn't spooked himself out in first time blinkers when the fav joined him on the outside.

This can happen with inexperienced horses as they only get to see the other horse as it is almost on top of them. This fella has plenty of "personality" but at 9/1 I would be willing to take a chance on him.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I didn't have a bet in the race (my double was dead) and I have nothing against Hanagan, nor am I madly in love with Buick.

However, I think the Musidora was an example of when the winning jockey made the difference. Buick seemed to urge Joviality home, whereas for a couple of strides Hanagan seemed to be more intent with seeing how Barefoot Lady would respond (rather than forcing her to do so).
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Buick very, very good.

No-one still close to Frankie in a Group race though..
 
Hamm said:
Buick very, very good.

No-one still close to Frankie in a Group race though..
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Agree about Buick.

I can't have the other one though. I've still not forgiven him for Swain. The Yanks think he's a clown and I'm not inclined to talk them out of it.
 
Only one bet for me tomorrow - World Domination. I like the fact i've seen him this season and he has won well in what I think will turn out to be a good maiden. He looks to have pace and the trip is not a problem. I'm not convinced Carlton House will stay nor am I convinced this will be a stiff enough test for Seville.

Should be an informative race.
 
Whatever about 1m4 there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever about Carlton House staying 1m2. I watched his maiden again and he was seriously impressive. If one of the 2 maiden winners are going to challenge Seville, it will be him I feel.
 
My first bets for a while (other than Canford yesterday AP). Not much to go for but I've gone for the obvious in Midday and Seville.
 
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Seville is the very obvious horse here and should win - the once concern is O'Brien says he doesn't show much speed at home (which, when you translate O'Brien speak back into english, suggests he is as slow as a very slow old boat).
 
Hamm said:
Seville is the very obvious horse here and should win - the once concern is O'Brien says he doesn't show much speed at home (which, when you translate O'Brien speak back into english, suggests he is as slow as a very slow old boat).
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Yes I wouldn't say I've backed him with maximum confidence. But unless you know something about one of the others you can't really not have a bet on Seville.

O'Brien won with all his four runners at Chester and if this one is meant to be his Derby horse he should brush these aside fairly readily.
 
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Could somebody please put me off having a large bet on Midday?

I just can’t see her beaten; the opposition looks moderate at best. The problem is I really love the mare, and I think it might be colouring my judgement…
 
BennyB said:
Could somebody please put me off having a large bet on Midday?

I just can’t see her beaten; the opposition looks moderate at best. The problem is I really love the mare, and I think it might be colouring my judgement…
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She has an obvious chance but apparently worked a bit flat at the weekend.
 
BennyB said:
Could somebody please put me off having a large bet on Midday?

I just can’t see her beaten; the opposition looks moderate at best. The problem is I really love the mare, and I think it might be colouring my judgement…
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I know what you mean... almost certain to be second now that I've backed her.

Forget it, grab all the even money you can get! ;) (...I couldn't get odds against earlier this morning).
 
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SteveM said:
O'Brien won with all his four runners at Chester and if this one is meant to be his Derby horse he should brush these aside fairly readily.
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It is a common assumption in England that AOB likes to run his main Derby hope in the Dante. I would say the record shows that, provided they are ready for a run and the ground is ok, he prefers to run what he thinks to be his best Derby candidate in the Derrinstown.
 
Grey said:
It is a common assumption in England that AOB likes to run his main Derby hope in the Dante. I would say the record shows that, provided they are ready for a run and the ground is ok, he prefers to run what he thinks to be his best Derby candidate in the Derrinstown.
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I think you may be right in a way. The option to stay in Ireland is clearly the more straightforward. However, the Dante does sort them out and is generally the more competitive (and the best) trial.
 
Agreed - Black Bear Island anyone?

My view is that Seville is a slow old boat who will need 1m4f at least against decent opposition. Backing horses just cos they have the form in the book is a narrow way of looking at form. I prefer to trust my own judgement, particularly my own visual interpretation of performances.

Re Carlton House Hamm, his maiden win was impressive I agree and he should just about stay 1m2f but from memory (I can't see the RP site at work) his Dam won over 12f but most of her progeny so far have been effective over shorter and Street Cry is a stallion I associate with speed.

I personally think it will be between World Domination and Carlton House and although it may sound like an odd thing to say I actually think WD has less question marks. He has recent form, stay's the trip, has pace and the track should suit fine. The only thing he doesn't have is group form.
 
Aragorn said:
WD has less question marks. He has recent form, stay's the trip, has pace and the track should suit fine. The only thing he doesn't have is group form.
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While WD may prove to be every bit as good as they are telling us he is, with a single appearance in maiden company to go on you are taking an awful lot on trust... This seems to me less about making your mind up and more about believing the hype. I can't see how he can be backed with any confidence unless you know of some inside info that is not publically available.
 
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Aragorn said:
Agreed - Black Bear Island anyone?

My view is that Seville is a slow old boat who will need 1m4f at least against decent opposition. Backing horses just cos they have the form in the book is a narrow way of looking at form. I prefer to trust my own judgement, particularly my own visual interpretation of performances.

Re Carlton House Hamm, his maiden win was impressive I agree and he should just about stay 1m2f but from memory (I can't see the RP site at work) his Dam won over 12f but most of her progeny so far have been effective over shorter and Street Cry is a stallion I associate with speed.

I personally think it will be between World Domination and Carlton House and although it may sound like an odd thing to say I actually think WD has less question marks. He has recent form, stay's the trip, has pace and the track should suit fine. The only thing he doesn't have is group form.
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Your line about Carlton House is interesting. I never really looked at Street Cry as a pure speed influence. He has sired Zenyatta, Street Sense and Shocking. So two 1m2f horses and a Melbourne Cup winner. So I tend to classify him as giving class and deferring stamina to the mare rather than being a speed influence.

The dam (Talented) has produced milers, but with Fasliyev and Zafonic.

She has produced a sprinter with Green Desert.

She has produced middle distance 12-16f with Barathea.

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I had just assumed it was a given that he would stay 10f, but the evidence is far from conclusive. I don't know what to think, and I wouldn't back him in the Derby with that page.
 
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Reading the RP last week I noticed that Elsworth made a rare appearance on the Al Bahathri gallops with Myplacelater.I found this very interesting and have backed her at 12s in the 2 o clock at York.
 
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