Today's Fancy

Although the likely winner I've got to lay Recital at odds-on - his form doesn't shout out an odds-on shot to me - as usual I could look very foolish in about 15mins :)
 
With Ruth Carr in such good form as mentioned on David Chapman thread..its interesting that Tomitoul Star is getting some interest in the 8.30 at Southwell

The fav is apparently well handicapped but that depends on how you view the horse it beat last time..that one had been raised to 65 itself..the same mark Koo is on tonight and Koo was receiving weight

This looks like potentially another winner winner for the Carr stable at a time when they probably need winners more than usual
 
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Few for the first day of the Dante meeting:

In the Musidora I like Gosden's Joviality. Still a maiden and has plenty to find, particularly with Barefoot Lady, but she has run very green both runs and I think she had plenty left last time but thought she'd done enough and got caught napping. If the penny drops I think she has the natural ability to win this. Everything bar Whey sauce is a danger and this is probably the limit of her stamina but I think she is worth a bet at the price.

In the Duke of York I like two of the less fancied horses and will probably dutch them to my usual stake. Ladies are forever is a 3yo filly running against the big boys and there is always a risk this is too soon in her career but I had a look at this race in detail and only one 3yo filly has contested it in the last ten years and she finished third. Showcasing finished second as a 3yo last year so I think it's possible. She also has the benefit of a run in the Nell Gwynn where she was the last off the bridle. By Monsieur bond out of a danetime mare sprinting is what she's bred for and I think she has a better chance than her price suggests.

My other fancy for the Duke of York is Prime Defender. Again, a bit from left field, but I think he is getting ideal conditions. He won this race last year and so clearly enjoys the track, the ground is drying out all the time, he's race fit and because he's been well beaten the last few races (The stiff uphill finish at Newmarket is beyond the limits of his stamina) you should be able to get a decent price to win on the exchange.

Happy punting :)
 
Good stuff, Aragorn; I've had peanuts on Ladies Are Forever.

A note about the ground: there were heavy showers two days ago and into that night with a few heavy showers about today again. This is in Leeds, though I'm told by a colleague living in York that the situation there has been the same. In short, the ground should be slightly the easy side of good I reckon. Certainly nothing approaching the fast ground we had last year.
 
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Aragorn said:
Few for the first day of the Dante meeting:

In the Musidora I like Gosden's Joviality. Still a maiden and has plenty to find, particularly with Barefoot Lady, but she has run very green both runs and I think she had plenty left last time but thought she'd done enough and got caught napping. If the penny drops I think she has the natural ability to win this. Everything bar Whey sauce is a danger and this is probably the limit of her stamina but I think she is worth a bet at the price.

In the Duke of York I like two of the less fancied horses and will probably dutch them to my usual stake. Ladies are forever is a 3yo filly running against the big boys and there is always a risk this is too soon in her career but I had a look at this race in detail and only one 3yo filly has contested it in the last ten years and she finished third. Showcasing finished second as a 3yo last year so I think it's possible. She also has the benefit of a run in the Nell Gwynn where she was the last off the bridle. By Monsieur bond out of a danetime mare sprinting is what she's bred for and I think she has a better chance than her price suggests.

My other fancy for the Duke of York is Prime Defender. Again, a bit from left field, but I think he is getting ideal conditions. He won this race last year and so clearly enjoys the track, the ground is drying out all the time, he's race fit and because he's been well beaten the last few races (The stiff uphill finish at Newmarket is beyond the limits of his stamina) you should be able to get a decent price to win on the exchange.

Happy punting :)
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I also like Joviality. Watching (having had a small bet) her at Sandown last month was very frustrating - it's all about when/if the penny drops. She didn't settle too well that day either.
 
I'm having a small bet on Whey Sauce in the Musidora. Knowing PCH there is no way he would be running this filly if she didn't have a chance and if anyone can pull up a replay of her debut run she looked all class. At 50/1 I will certainly be having a bet.
 
Couldn't fancy her Kauto - Ran well for a time on her debut but lacks pace for me and from memory is not guaranteed to stay on breeding. I take your point about PCH though.
 
Hamm,

I would have been frustrated if i'd backed her that day as I think she was the best horse in the race. Once she beaten off King of Jazz she started to idle then when Cumani's horse came upsides she picked up again and that colt wasn;t going away from her at the finish.

It really comes down to whether that race has brought her on mentally because if it has she should be a shorter price.
 
That's the thing. I watched it with Clivex and I think we both said the same to each other straight away (i.e., trying to console the lost bets). She could be very good. I just hope it was greenness and nothing else.
 
Aragorn and Hamm, well done. You made a well argued case for Jovialty and she has won at a nice price. I'm pleased to say I followed your advice.
 
Neither did I. VC Bet are making a mess of my account. I would also back Delegator and Dalghar should anyone else want to back other winners I will probably miss out on!
 
First email to the lads this morning

"I like Regal Parade in the sprint. Maybe with Delegator as a saver."

Second email to the lads this morning
"Glad you are keen on Regal Parade Ray; I think I will skip the saver and put him in a single and then a double with O’Brien’s in the fillies’ race."
 
You can't seriously think you are hard done by when you read my post above!

I managed to get shillings on Delegator in the end - about 20% of what I wanted. Oh well.
 
Just see VC only took my bet on Dalghar, the screen kept on refreshing and eventually returned my stake on Delegator. wonderbar.
 
Kauto said:
I'm having a small bet on Whey Sauce in the Musidora. Knowing PCH there is no way he would be running this filly if she didn't have a chance and if anyone can pull up a replay of her debut run she looked all class. At 50/1 I will certainly be having a bet.
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I know the bet wasn't a winner but a nice bit of placing by PCH.The owners should be pleased with that.
 
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