Un de Sceaux

JLT is between Vautour and Ptit Zig.......I'll be having a healthy cover bet on PZ, when UDS wins the Arkle.
 
I've seen a price for UDS for next years QM. What price would forum members back him at now for it?
 
sunybay said:
Going to the race and not adjusted
timeform had
gilgamboa. 152p
un de sceaux. 159p
clarcam. 148p
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Thanks, sb. This would then suggest Timeform regard the toher two as not running to their very best. How likely is that, especially when both were on an upward curve and could reasonably have been expected to have posted improved ratings?
 
If Sacre and SDG fail to come back, you wouldn't want to be laying much more than about 7/2 about UDS for the 2016 Champion Chase, as there's nothing particularly classy amongst the established 2m chasers, and he's a distance better than his novice contemporaries.

Basically 7/2 to make the race 14 months out - I'd probably be happy to lay that at this stage.
 
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Timeform


Un de Sceaux is now rated 168p, which is exactly the same as his hurdles figure from last year. To see him jump you’d have no doubt that he’s already as able over fences as he was over hurdles. What’s even more impressive is that his figure requires no elaboration: even with the other two slightly below form, he has run to 168 without coming under anything like full pressure. Clarcam (146) and Gilgamboa (152+) may yet turn up in good novices this spring but it’s nigh-on impossible to see them beating Un de Sceaux on this evidence.


Talk of Un de Sceaux taking on senior chasers in the Queen Mother assumes that Willie Mullins will break the habit of a lifetime, but for discussion’s sake we’ll say this: Un de Sceaux’s performance on Sunday was the second best by a two-mile chaser this season, behind Dodging Bullets in last week’s Clarence House Chase, and then only by 1 lb.
 
If anyone else sees a price for UDS to win the QM in 2016 please let me know.
 
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BennyB said:
Not 14s then! 5/1 looks a bit stingy to me. What price will he be if he wins the Arkle?


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14/1 would be the biggest rick of all time.

"If he wins the Arkle"

7/2 after he wins it
5/2 after the boat race QM on Thursday. I'll bet my life he clocks a faster time than the QM winner too.
 
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If Ruby had allowed him to run in the Champion Hurdle last year we would have been looking at a CH, Arkle, QM, GC 4-timer.
 
SlimChance said:
14/1 would be the biggest rick of all time.

"If he wins the Arkle"

7/2 after he wins it
5/2 after the boat race QM on Thursday. I'll bet my life he clocks a faster time than the QM winner too.
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Surely if you're right that means the 5/1 is stingy. Evens to win the Arkle, reinvest at 7/2, pays 8/1 the double.

I'd want a double figure price this far out to be honest, too much can go wrong plus there is the OC of tying up the capital.


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BennyB said:
Surely if you're right that means the 5/1 is stingy. Evens to win the Arkle, reinvest at 7/2, pays 8/1 the double.

I'd want a double figure price this far out to be honest, too much can go wrong plus there is the OC of tying up the capital.


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He can lose the Arkle and still win the QM. If he wins 20 lengths he could be 2/1. This is not an exact science but double figures is not required for a horse with this much of a class advantage in the two mile division.
 
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You're probably right - betting this far ante post isn't something I'd ever do to be honest though so maybe I'm crap at working out the value.

What I do know is that I could turn the capital over several times backing much better value than a 5/1 shot 15 months away from a race he might never run in.


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It's all relative. You can build big positions ante post that you just can't do day to day.
 
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