chaumi
Rookie
We all know that finding winners is not necessarily only about predicting who is the best runner in a race, but predicting who is most likely to triumph in the context of that race. Doesn't need saying, but thoughts around that can clearly be applied in multiple ways and against multiple races.
And, if you can spot something not too many others have, then you could be lining yourself up for an attractively-priced winner somewhere down the line.
And, if you can identify hot races, they can be a good source of hints for future winners.
All obvious stuff.
So, I figured that spotting a race before its run that's likely (by the context/profile of the runners in that race) to turn up some future winners can be a good approach. In particular, a race that might go under the radar for a bit.
Clearly, this is likely to be best applied to novices, maidens, bumpers etc. I'd venture to suggest best applied to jumps, though there will likely be some flat maidens/novices that will fit the profile.
********
I'll kick off with one today. The 12.50 at Carlisle, a two-and-a-half mile novice hurdle.
6 of the 8 have won a bumper, a PTP, or a PTP bumper. A few high-profile names involved. Packed with interesting bloodlines. Glanced through the sales prices and over half range from £19k upwards to £90k.
Might be worth keeping an eye on any horse that runs with promise here. But with the proviso that the potential heavy ground might act as an equalizer and/or bring to the fore those that have been conditioned well enough to handle it this early.
Personally, I'll be watching Donald Whillans' So Many Roads, with the hope he doesn't run too well, but with just enough promise that it's clear a future Class 4 will be within easy reach. There's an outside chance that SMR is far enough forward from running up hills in the Borders to at least keep tabs for a long way.
And, if you can spot something not too many others have, then you could be lining yourself up for an attractively-priced winner somewhere down the line.
And, if you can identify hot races, they can be a good source of hints for future winners.
All obvious stuff.
So, I figured that spotting a race before its run that's likely (by the context/profile of the runners in that race) to turn up some future winners can be a good approach. In particular, a race that might go under the radar for a bit.
Clearly, this is likely to be best applied to novices, maidens, bumpers etc. I'd venture to suggest best applied to jumps, though there will likely be some flat maidens/novices that will fit the profile.
********
I'll kick off with one today. The 12.50 at Carlisle, a two-and-a-half mile novice hurdle.
6 of the 8 have won a bumper, a PTP, or a PTP bumper. A few high-profile names involved. Packed with interesting bloodlines. Glanced through the sales prices and over half range from £19k upwards to £90k.
Might be worth keeping an eye on any horse that runs with promise here. But with the proviso that the potential heavy ground might act as an equalizer and/or bring to the fore those that have been conditioned well enough to handle it this early.
Personally, I'll be watching Donald Whillans' So Many Roads, with the hope he doesn't run too well, but with just enough promise that it's clear a future Class 4 will be within easy reach. There's an outside chance that SMR is far enough forward from running up hills in the Borders to at least keep tabs for a long way.
