Unexposed races to follow

Doesn’t seem to be any significant market action in any of these aside from Basford and maybe Saint Palais, chaumi. I’m interested in a few, but probably watch only unless market suggests otherwise.

Ayr 2:55 Travail D’Orfeure - ran quite well last time at Kelso, but weakened towards finish. 4/1 atm
Ayr 1:50 Gege Ville - well thought of 7/4f atm
Bangor 4:05 Saint Palais - what's he doing in a novice hurdle? Should whack these if living up to chase form 1/1 atm from 2/1 overnight. Maxilillion - won grittily at Carlisle last time and unbeaten thus far, but drifted to 9/4 atm from 15/8 overnight.
Bangor 3:35 Riskintheground - not disgraced at bumper Listed level and interesting hurdle debut 7/2 atm. Basford - should come on a tad from last run and 7/2 from 15/2 overnight looks significant. Lost the price, but had a small interest.
 
Last edited:
Bangor 4:05 Saint Palais - what's he doing in a novice hurdle? Should whack these if living up to chase form 1/1 atm from 2/1 overnight.

This is the one I put up on the Odds On thread a couple of weeks back but he was taken out after being backed in from stupid odds. (I think I got 4/1and he was something like 6/4 when they withdrew him.) This is a lesser race and I'll be hugely disappointed if he doesn't win.
 
Doesn’t seem to be any significant market action in any of these aside from Basford and maybe Saint Palais, chaumi. I’m interested in a few, but probably watch only unless market suggests otherwise.

Ayr 2:55 Travail D’Orfeure - ran quite well last time at Kelso, but weakened towards finish. 4/1 atm
Ayr 1:50 Gege Ville - well thought of 7/4f atm
Bangor 4:05 Saint Palais - what's he doing in a novice hurdle? Should whack these if living up to chase form 1/1 atm from 2/1 overnight. Maxilillion - won grittily at Carlisle last time and unbeaten thus far, but drifted to 9/4 atm from 15/8 overnight.
Bangor 3:35 Riskintheground - not disgraced at bumper Listed level and interesting hurdle debut 7/2 atm. Basford - should come on a tad from last run and 7/2 from 15/2 overnight looks significant. Lost the price, but had a small interest.

Riskintheground was never involved. Same with Basford who was never put into it and it looked like just a run for a mark.

Maximilian won very well and looks a good one. Gawd knows what Saint Palais was playing at. They say he’s going hurdling this season which seems odd and you’ve got to suppose there’s something not quite right .

Travail D’orfevre never featured.

Gage Ville bumped into a decent one, but was well clear of the rest. Can win one of these I think.

Away from these Mister Watson - 12:50 Bangor - looked as though he was going to win this, but mucked up the last and lost all momentum. Good chase debut run and can only get better. Ran off 119.

Gali’s Des Liteaux - 1:25 Bangor - was an impressive winner on her chase debut, jumping to the manner born . Could be a good one.
 
Last edited:
2.55 Ayr Novices' Limited Handicap Chase Class 4

Although only 7 runners, this could turn out to be competitive.

The initial interesting one is Stolen Money. This trip should be way too sharp, and the hope would be he jumps fences well but ends up 20l+ down at the end. Then we get to fill boots in a subsequent heavy ground 3-miler.


View attachment 2846

That couldn't have gone much better if we wrote the script!

Jumped very cleanly till left behind around 3 out. If SM can get a class 4 at Carlisle or Hexham on heavy ground over 3m+ against standard to medium class Northern opposition and open around 8 or 10-1, it'll be a fairly enticing EW bet to nothing.
 
13:15 Ayr 2.5 mile Class 4 Maiden Hurdle

View attachment 2847

Easy to say after, but Step Above was probably one that got away today. Yard were hopeful of a place at least before the race, and I missed the Mountain High connection on the dam side. On paper had two or three to beat, and it pretty much went that way.

Jet Away's are added to the list to keep an eye open for.

Nothing in behind worth noting at this stage.
 
1.50 Ayr 2m class 4 novice

View attachment 2848


Eden Mill wouldn't have been expected to do anything here. Farne Island couldn't have done much here either. Both can do better in handicaps, and FI will be interesting at a big price in a class 5 over two and a half if she can show a little more encouragement in a novice or maiden in between.


Time similar to the other novice on the card, neither remarkable but also not slower than others.
 

Another Daly runner to watch for in a two and half mile handicap, maybe mares only - Maid of the night. Fetched £40k in Jan 22, won a 3m point. By Shirocco, very likely to improve over further. Would not have been expected to do much here, and didn't. Perfect!

Possibly interesting that Yeomen Warder didn't run again (see race from around a week ago). SC last time, supposedly declared in error this time.

Ingennio for Richard Hobson may be interesting in future, showed nothing here.

A few others showed a little without getting too close, but they're obvious by trainer anyway


***fastest comparative time of the day, maybe mark up a little***
 
Last edited:
1:05 Newcastle Class 4 2m46y Novice



newcastle105.png

Call him now Sue Smith - Looks nice on breeding. Been a long long time since I've seen an 80-1 novice winner from Sue Smith, but it has happened. Would seem highly unlikely here, one for further most likely although drops from 2m4f last time. The interpretation could be he's not strong enough yet and this is more of a learning race. But I think it needs a look at the start to see if TW might try to make all.

Micky Hammond thinks Piecederesistance can go well.


Susan Corbett's Jet Away Konig King looks super interesting - "At over 17.1hh, he is one of the biggest racehorses you will see and has clearly needed time to mature". We could learn something useful today about this one.

Lucinda's Scottish Wind has reportedly been schooling well and is likely to appreciate the unseasonal fastish ground
 
Last edited:
Great news for both Konig King and Call Him Now there.

KK looked a bit gawky and jumped cluelessly at one or two (a little reminiscent of Topofthegame to my eye, who knows!!! :-) ) Tenderly handled all the way. Worth watching, though it might be a longish wait.

CHN
was never at the races. Intentional. If he looks like going off in front in the next two or three, that will be when they intend to see what he's got.

Scottish Wind will obviously improve.

Piecedereistance. Pre-race comments suggested they probably expected a little better. Clearly not disgraced, but might need to hope for a few unplaced runs before considering backing.
 
13:30 Market Rasen Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m4f Class 4

marketrasen 130.png


Electoral Lady
Midnightinbresil
Sinurita
Letsgotovegas

All interesting pedigrees.
 
Last edited:
13:30 Market Rasen Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m4f Class 4

View attachment 2856


Electoral Lady
Midnightinbresil
Sinurita
Letsgotovegas

All interesting pedigrees.

Time roughly on par with most others on the day.

Everything bar the winner and 2nd (LGTV and Iorens) were well beaten.

Nothing to note other than Alex Hales mare Midnightinbresil was suitably disgraced at this early stage. AH trained the dam to win a mares novice, he may try to repeat the feat, although, on this showing, MIB looks more likely in a class 5 handicap some way in the future
 
Last edited:
Southwell 2.30 2m class 4 maiden

southwell.png

Ben Case's Celestial Park looks interesting here for the future, though the drift from 50-1 to 150 probably tells the story for this time. Actually looks to be the most expensive buy in the field at €35k.

Laura Morgan's Charging Point ought to be one for handicaps later
 
Last edited:

Sadly Charging Point got his name in the frame, but beaten a long way and still might be OK for a handicap at reasonable odds, perhaps on softer ground somewhere.

Celestial Park no show as expected, for later on.


**testing the video, don't know if it will work** It didn't!!

https://vimeo.com/769903642/f5a36ae9bb
 
Last edited:
Not much time to check out Saturday's races. But the eye was drawn to two Daly runners in two-and-a-half novice hurdles.

The interesting point with these is that they didn't take the often-trod route of bumper(s) - 2-mile novice - two and a half handicap, with both being pitched straight into the two and a half novice (Moon Hunter was out of ptp's anyway).

Neither particularly unexpected (morning odds 17-2 and 13-2, they both finished around half those odds). Both won nicely.

This probably marks at least one, and maybe both, as potential future 3m chase winners, perhaps even a listed 3-miler around Ascot in two or three years' time.

Daly's Jimmy the Digger was not beaten far in the Cheltenham Class 3...and then the bumper runner Bowenspark rounded off the day with a FTO win. All in all, not too far off a 4-timer.

So, why all the Daly talk?

Well, I think this illustrates some nice strength in depth within the stable. And we know it's the 3-mile+ chasers he really loves.

*********

Fortescue in the Becher. And I think this is why Daly ran him in the Bangor novice a few days ago. A readier.

If it comes up soft/heavy enough to keep the others within range, this horse is a battler that could be in his pinnacle year aged 8. 40-1 currently, and looks sure to get a race. Remember was only a few lengths off Royal Pagaille in the Peter Marsh last Jan, staying on dourly.

The Becher on soft/heavy might be the perfect race, given he jumped plenty cleanly enough in last year's National till unshipping the jockey 4 or 5 out (hard to see exactly what happened, but looked like a half stumble, half couldn't get a leg out as opposed to a serious mistake). My reading is he'd have fought hard and maybe got close enough to the leaders to make an impact...but if it was a case of 'reaching the end of stamina', then the Becher could be the one to catch him.
 
Last edited:
Henderson must think there’s quite a lot in Iberico Lord to start him off in the Grade2 Supreme Trial at Cheltenham yesterday. He raced at the rear, but looked quite at home with them until he stumbled a bit turning in, after which he was eased down. Told us nothing, really, but maybe worth keeping in mind.
 
Hereford 3.50 2 mile bumper

hereford.png

Some very interesting types here.

Daly has had yet another winner today already. Just look at Scrumpy's breeding. It looks soft enough at Hereford, although would have preferred it on the heavy side to blunt some of the others.

Obviously the Kim Bailey and Nicholls runners could be useful. KB definitely fancies his. Jonjo's, too. And Oliver Signy's looks like it's attracted a few pennies. Nicholls sometimes doesn't have bumper runners fully wound up, let's hope that's the case here.

That level of competition should ensure that the other Black Sam Bellamy (Black Tonic 150-1) runs out the back here, but I'll do the RFC just in case, it would be too painful. Much too painful.

If Scrumpy is not ready, let's hope it's a sound beating, and it'll be boot fill next time. 14-1 seems good enough here to take the chance.
 
Last edited:
10 or so performed creditably.

Out of Office ran well for sure, and the yard is unlikely to be too disappointed.

The Philip Hobbs runner High Game Royal wasn't too far off the places (perhaps confirming the well-being of the yard, at least the youngsters given how Goshhowposh went in the next).

Christian Williams may be spending his winnings wisely (or owners are actively seeking him out with useful types), his Always Busy only weakening away at the second last at a massive price. Still only 4, plenty of time.

******

Watch out for the Mountain High Shee's a Stella in a class 5 two-and-a-half mile handicap next spring or maybe autumn, potentially at treble figure odds. Had zero prospects of getting anywhere near much else running here and ran/finished accordingly.


Always Busy has just gone in at a massive price in a tough-looking Warwick novice, I think around 180 BF. A potentially strong marker for this Chepstow race, I'd say.
 
Last edited:
Aye, more’s the pity :(, the second - Amrons Sage - is supposedly a good one, so Always Busy must be too. A good spot, chaumi, did you back it?
 
Hereford 3.50 2 mile bumper

View attachment 2862

Some very interesting types here.

Daly has had yet another winner today already. Just look at Scrumpy's breeding. It looks soft enough at Hereford, although would have preferred it on the heavy side to blunt some of the others.

Obviously the Kim Bailey and Nicholls runners could be useful. KB definitely fancies his. Jonjo's, too. And Oliver Signy's looks like it's attracted a few pennies. Nicholls sometimes doesn't have bumper runners fully wound up, let's hope that's the case here.

That level of competition should ensure that the other Black Sam Bellamy (Black Tonic 150-1) runs out the back here, but I'll do the RFC just in case, it would be too painful. Much too painful.

If Scrumpy is not ready, let's hope it's a sound beating, and it'll be boot fill next time. 14-1 seems good enough here to take the chance.

Scrumpy seemed to run green, may get another chance in a bumper. Kept going well enough to run into 5th to suggest there is some ability.

Black Tonic stuck on well enough but as expected was well behind the front few. May get one more chance and - if finding an easier race - may still be at good enough odds for a small bet.

Some well-fancied Kim Bailey bumper runners do run under expectations, so wouldn't be too disappointed with this.

The winner could end up contesting listed races, so time may tell this was a pretty tough race to make a debut in for some of those in behind.


******

Worth noting that plenty of runners pulled up across the Hereford card, so conditions may have been tougher than they looked.
 
Aye, more’s the pity :(, the second - Amrons Sage - is supposedly a good one, so Always Busy must be too. A good spot, chaumi, did you back it?


No. I figured that with this level of competition and the likelihood that he'd need further, today couldn't be the day.

But a big lesson. Christian Williams is branching out...it won't just be long-distance chasers by the look of it.
 
11 ran in the end. Proper heavy ground.

Uncle Bert ran above market expectations to finish 2nd for NTD. Perhaps an interesting note here is a Mel Rowley association, appears MR may have originally sourced Uncle Bert, and it appears she did with Ahoy Senor, too.

Coupled with this, evidence from her own runners in bumpers and some of the hurdlers suggest Mel and team certainly know what they're doing with the youngsters. The question mark I've got from this is 'does she sell on all the likely strongest types and keep the 'lesser' prospects in stable?' To be monitored...but it would seem to be sensible to pay any bumper runners some particularly close attention.

Aside from this, nothing to note. Less than half the races were run before abandonment due to ground deteriorating, so comparative time analysis pretty pointless

Whisperonthewind runs 2nd for Mel Rowley at 50-1 in the mares bumper at Warwick. I thought she had it a furlong out :-(
 
Back
Top