Unexposed races to follow

Fwiw here’s my take on the 1:52 at Chepstow.

1. Tahmuras

The market called it, hardening from 11/4 overnight to 11/8f. He bowled along in front and jumping well, making a bit of ground at most hurdles . Seemed to lose a bit of concentration coming into the last, but then moved strongly as push came to shove and won easily, albeit a little flattered as the two close up behind at the last tired. Given the potential strength in the field this was a strong performance and I think he’ll be hard to beat at this level.

2. Bubble Dubi

There was a bit money for him and he is reportedly well thought of by connections. Held up in rear and a bit tentative at the early hurdles. Gradually worked his way through the field, but he was still seventh or so at the last where he didn’t get the clearest of runs and had to be switched. Finished strongest of all bar the winner to grab second near the line.

3. Sergeant Wilson

Another one highly thought of. Got past the first this time after he didn’t fancy it last week and ran pretty smoothly to move threateningly into second two out. Got a bit bumped at the last and had no answer when the winner moved off and was picked up at the death by the second. Whether he couldn’t find much at the end, or didn’t bother as the winner vanished ?

4. Out of Office

Jumped ok and raced prominently in third, but didn’t find any more when push came to shove. Decent run though.

5. High Game Royal

Not much expected , but jumped and ran quite well behind the leaders, although wandered about a bit. Got taken off his feet when things started hotting up, but kept on quite well. Could do with longer, I think.

6. Clonakilty

Raced prominently behind the leader jumping ok until a mistake two out and a tired jump last. Weakened on run in.

7. Pembroke

Another one highly thought of and there was money for him, although he drifted from overnight 9/4 to 11/4. He raced mid division looking quite comfortable and a slight mistake three out didn’t stop him moving into fourth and looking good before the second out where he blundered badly . That put paid to his chances and he couldn’t recover. Other than those two errors his jumping was pretty sound and I think he’s worth another look.

The rest are of no account (yet).

ps: Stewards report

Approaching the last hurdle, CLONAKILTY (IRE), unplaced, lugged right-handed making brief contact with SERGEANT WILSON (IRE), placed third, subsequently unbalancing both runners. After viewing a recording of the incident, it was found that no riding offence was involved.
 
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The mares novice hurdle 1.30 Ludlow is interesting, perhaps most for one that doesn't actually appear here.

So, the eye was first drawn to Anthony Honeyball's Konigin Isabella, with a German line through and through. She ought to be tough. Has had a wind op, and the stable write-up on her suggests she's promising. 3rd btn 3 lengths or so in a short Newbury bumper last season, finishing behind Poetic Music who opposes here.

Poetic Music is definitely on the likely winner list, along with Nicholls Dancingontheedge (already a bumper winner) and Jonjo's Dollar Bae.

Some interest comes from the last-named - beat Treyarnon bay in a Wincanton bumper back in Feb. TB seems highly enough rated by Henderson (some may remember I think it was Tanlic pointing out she'd not be beaten on her first Henderson bumper start). It's (perhaps) notable that the proximity of Hedychium (Seamus Mullins) in that Wincanton bumper might suggest it wasn't that strong, but equally, that could suggest that when Mullins finds the key to Hedychium, she'll go in at a big price.

It might be foolish to discount anything that Hobbs runs at present, but you wouldn't expect Energy One to trouble the best of these. At least not at this stage.

If the Alastair Ralph Tintern Abbey (Mahler, will need further?) or Daly's Regal Renaissance (French-bred, a two-and-a-half mile handicap beckons) run OK enough here, that will mark them out as potential future winners. Logic says today is not the day, and they should be a long way behind whoever wins.


*******

Not a betting race for sure. But Konigin is 40-1 with Bet365, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if she hits the frame. Doubtful if the 4 place market on BF will be anything higher than 3. A good run without getting in the three is likely to wreck the price for the future.
 
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No others to point up in this one. Market is quiet atm.

Btw I’ve added a ps to the Chepstow race take. Maybe those two suffered a little more than I thought.
 
chaumi said:
The mares novice hurdle 1.30 Ludlow is interesting, perhaps most for one that doesn't actually appear here.

So, the eye was first drawn to Anthony Honeyball's Konigin Isabella, with a German line through and through. She ought to be tough. Has had a wind op, and the stable write-up on her suggests she's promising. 3rd btn 3 lengths or so in a short Newbury bumper last season, finishing behind Poetic Music who opposes here.

Poetic Music is definitely on the likely winner list, along with Nicholls Dancingontheedge (already a bumper winner) and Jonjo's Dollar Bae.

Some interest comes from the last-named - beat Treyarnon bay in a Wincanton bumper back in Feb. TB seems highly enough rated by Henderson (some may remember I think it was Tanlic pointing out she'd not be beaten on her first Henderson bumper start). It's (perhaps) notable that the proximity of Hedychium (Seamus Mullins) in that Wincanton bumper might suggest it wasn't that strong, but equally, that could suggest that when Mullins finds the key to Hedychium, she'll go in at a big price.

It might be foolish to discount anything that Hobbs runs at present, but you wouldn't expect Energy One to trouble the best of these. At least not at this stage.

If the Alastair Ralph Tintern Abbey (Mahler, will need further?) or Daly's Regal Renaissance (French-bred, a two-and-a-half mile handicap beckons) run OK enough here, that will mark them out as potential future winners. Logic says today is not the day, and they should be a long way behind whoever wins.


*******

Not a betting race for sure. But Konigin is 40-1 with Bet365, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if she hits the frame. Doubtful if the 4 place market on BF will be anything higher than 3. A good run without getting in the three is likely to wreck the price for the future.
Click to expand...


Well, from a future betting perspective, that was an absolute disaster.

Konigin got run out of 4th by a head after a promising run round. Fluffed the last when about 4 or 5 lengths down, that cost her 4th spot.

Regal Rennaisance doubled the misery by running a nice enough race, finishing well to get 4th after jumping the last a few lengths behind Konigin.

Both a long way behind the winner but close enough that the 'wrong' eyeballs will have noticed. Likely to mean there's no 20 or 25-1 for either in the near future, especially RR, who - by this showing - may well have walked a class 4 or 5 handicap over two and a half (and yet might do so). Konigin may well improve, too.

The winner (you'd have thought possibly could develop to listed class prior to the race) won as pretty much everyone might have expected.

The big surprise (for me, although the betting suggested otherwise) was Tintern Abbey, and running this close to mares that theoretically should have outspeeded her by a longer way than they did could be a pointer to her future prospects over further.

Dollar Bae did well enough to suggest Treyarnon Bay will be up to running well when she appears over hurdles.

*****

I'll re-emphasize that note on Hedychium, who has old bumper form that ties in fairly closely with Dollar Bae and Treyarnon Bay. Seamus Mullins may well find a race in the west country.


******

Aside from all this, it was a nightmare day given what happened at Sedgefield, with two nice-enough prospects for northern races, Thermusa and Sweet Auburn, both breaking down on the flat in separate incidents in the same race. Gutting. RIP Both.

Course seem to be suggesting it was down to the camber on the track, rather than unsafe ground.
 
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EC21 said:
I did a long post to you and then lost it, keep up this, it's really good.
Click to expand...

That's a shame, EC21. Frustrating when that happens, and I'd guess was followed by a combination of the same expletives I've emitted when similar has happened.

Would have been interested in any thoughts, maybe another time.
 
chaumi said:
That's a shame, EC21. Frustrating when that happens, and I'd guess was followed by a combination of the same expletives I've emitted when similar has happened.

Would have been interested in any thoughts, maybe another time.
Click to expand...

I really can't recall what I posted now Chaumi. It was one of those.... I really need to reply jobs, I spewed out some stuff, then messed it all up by losing the bloody lot. It will come back to me at some point. I will read through what you have posted from the start and try and remember. Anyway, keep this going, it is good stuff and a great approach to this game. There are very few, if any, original angles to go at now re this game. A few years ago my angle was pace reading, I put many winners up on here, people like Colin knows that. That game is now covered on ATR in detail so thats that game gone. I don't bother much now, getting old and other life things matter more and take over as many people on here will know.
 
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The 1.15 at Exeter seems likely to be the one to take from today.

Note : Hunting Brook (Emma Lavelle - €90k) is down to run, was noted in the strong-looking race a few days ago. Got pulled on ground...which, assuming today is good, suggests the impression that it was softer than officially reported at Hereford may have been correct.




Lallygag Paul Nicholls b g It's Gino (GER) - Laviola (GER) (Waky Nao (GB))

Close or won 3 west country bumper runs, a couple of them looking competitive enough without looking filled with world-beaters. Won a 3-runner maiden Exeter hurdle, told nothing, only had to turn up to win it. Possibly false odds-on???




Hunting Brook Emma Lavelle b g Presenting (GB) - Fleur D'Ainay (FR) (Poliglote (GB)) Nothing in stable tour, see above




King Of Lombardy Joe Tizzard b g Milan (GB) - Uranna (FR) (Panoramic I (GB))


€78k 4th in a competitive-looking sofft ground Newton Abbott bumper March 22. No mention in stable tour that I could see.




Madaket Philip Hobbs b g1 Kayf Tara (GB) - She Ranks Me (IRE) (Golan (IRE))


€70k Philip Hobbs may target this race, won 3 x before




Tik Tok Christian Williams b g Sri Putra (GB) - Lamboghina (GER) (Alkalde (GER))


€35k Nov 18. Green/fav/ran close enough in an uncompetitive Sedgefield bumper March 22. Think we all know by now that this will be too sharp/likely a learning race




Viking's Way Dan Skelton gr g Martaline (GB) - Virgata (FR) (Turgeon (USA))


Has some highish prices going back a bit, but most recent £18k. Appears 1st string No obvious promise for better-level races in Viking's history




Yeomen Warder Dan Skelton gr g Shirocco (GER) - Quarry Endeavour (IRE) (Great Palm (USA))

£30k Won a Larkhill maiden. Got pulled out on first intended run for Skelton May 22 - good ground, may well have been on the firmer side, Southwell bumper contested by Edmunds Bubble Dubi (close 3rd), who got within 8 lengths of Tahmuras the other day.


*******

If Jimmy Frost's or David Brace's perform with credit, they'll have done well.

We'll see what happens, but Yeomen Warder has the feel of an interesting one for the future if he comes out of this unexposed. Tik tok should remain unexposed.


*******

EDIT : whoops, two out at least, both the Skelton runners. Guess the rain has got in.
 
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chaumi said:
The 1.15 at Exeter seems likely to be the one to take from today.

Note : Hunting Brook (Emma Lavelle - €90k) is down to run, was noted in the strong-looking race a few days ago. Got pulled on ground...which, assuming today is good, suggests the impression that it was softer than officially reported at Hereford may have been correct.




Lallygag Paul Nicholls b g It's Gino (GER) - Laviola (GER) (Waky Nao (GB))

Close or won 3 west country bumper runs, a couple of them looking competitive enough without looking filled with world-beaters. Won a 3-runner maiden Exeter hurdle, told nothing, only had to turn up to win it. Possibly false odds-on???




Hunting Brook Emma Lavelle b g Presenting (GB) - Fleur D'Ainay (FR) (Poliglote (GB)) Nothing in stable tour, see above




King Of Lombardy Joe Tizzard b g Milan (GB) - Uranna (FR) (Panoramic I (GB))


€78k 4th in a competitive-looking sofft ground Newton Abbott bumper March 22. No mention in stable tour that I could see.




Madaket Philip Hobbs b g1 Kayf Tara (GB) - She Ranks Me (IRE) (Golan (IRE))


€70k Philip Hobbs may target this race, won 3 x before




Tik Tok Christian Williams b g Sri Putra (GB) - Lamboghina (GER) (Alkalde (GER))


€35k Nov 18. Green/fav/ran close enough in an uncompetitive Sedgefield bumper March 22. Think we all know by now that this will be too sharp/likely a learning race




Viking's Way Dan Skelton gr g Martaline (GB) - Virgata (FR) (Turgeon (USA))


Has some highish prices going back a bit, but most recent £18k. Appears 1st string No obvious promise for better-level races in Viking's history




Yeomen Warder Dan Skelton gr g Shirocco (GER) - Quarry Endeavour (IRE) (Great Palm (USA))

£30k Won a Larkhill maiden. Got pulled out on first intended run for Skelton May 22 - good ground, may well have been on the firmer side, Southwell bumper contested by Edmunds Bubble Dubi (close 3rd), who got within 8 lengths of Tahmuras the other day.


*******

If Jimmy Frost's or David Brace's perform with credit, they'll have done well.

We'll see what happens, but Yeomen Warder has the feel of an interesting one for the future if he comes out of this unexposed. Tik tok should remain unexposed.


*******

EDIT : whoops, two out at least, both the Skelton runners. Guess the rain has got in.
Click to expand...


The Skelton runners were down as SC.

Looked fairly good ground.

Hunting Brook. Made a nice enough move from the back on the approach to 3 out, seemingly with only the winner going equally as well. It's hard to be sure, even with multiple reruns, but it looks almost like HB took a kick in the head from King Of Lombardy at that hurdle. Either way, HB was virtually down on his nose, lost maybe a length or two but creditably kept going quite strongly for a way further. Clearly lost momentum, though. Fluffed the last when tiring a little, too. Evidence suggests this run can be marked up and likely would have been clear second best with the outside potential he'd have made the winner work for it.

Madaket also made a nice move from the back two-thirds through the race but petered out from there. Ability is probably there.

Tik Tok was in no way disgraced and remains an interesting one to watch when going further
 
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Thx, chaumi. No idea what Lallygag has got since he won so easily with nothing offering the remotest challenge. As you say, Hunting Brook might have got a little closer without the blunder and his more general lack of slickness at the hurdles. Unless that’s sorted it’ll keep holding him back.
 
Kelso 12.33 2m6 Novice Class 4

Hard to tell, but one or two of these might be useful for better Northern handicaps later on, so recording here for a post-race check:

kelso.jpg

Nick A : "Gaillimh A Stor ....He has to give weight all round having won his Novice at Ayr back in March, that looks pretty solid form and whilst tomorrow’s run is very much a prep for going chasing, I would like to think he can run well in what looks like a high-class race"

Brian Hughes made some complimentary blog comments on Ballyporeen for this. **edit, seems stable originally bought Bally on Hughes' recommendation** "decent-sized horse with a good attitude and should be capable of winning his maiden hurdle. He is from a nice staying family and was bought as a potential 3m chaser, but I would hope he can win over hurdles this side of Christmas. 28-09-22"


Sandy T : "won a point-to-point at Maisemore Park 12 months ago when with Ben Clarke and is another we like. His first two runs for us in the spring were two good placed efforts in bumpers. He benefited for a summer break and I was delighted with him on his seasonal return at Kelso, where he was a little green and got a bit further behind than ideal but finished well. He's very much one to look forward to as I expect him to develop into a nice 2m4f hurdler this season. He's not the biggest but what he lacks in size he makes up for with lots of heart. 16-11-21"
 
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Aintree 12.26 Class 3 Novice Two-and-a-half


Aintree.jpg

Some expensive types, may be informative.


David Pipe : "running a promising race on his sole start in an Irish point-to-point when coming down at the last. The race has worked out well and he is clearly a nice prospect, so hopefully he can go well, although this does look like a hot contest"

Ben Pauling : "an interesting horse as he has only had the one run for us when romping home by 20 lengths at Aintree in May. He had not shown a great deal at home prior to that outing so to see him win so easily was a very pleasant surprise. Was very green at Aintree but he has done well over the summer and is almost ready to start off again this season. I'm not sure the race he won was up to much, but he could not have done it more easily and should be interesting"

Dan Skelton : "very exciting horse who won both of his bumpers. He jumps well and has plenty of stamina and likes soft ground. I think we are entitled to be very positive about his potential"

Olly Murphy : "very likeable type who jumps well and should be another lovely one for the future"
 
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“invalid attachment” comes up, chaumi. Grey Dawning is the market mover in this one, down to 6/5 atm from 5/2 overnight.
 
chaumi said:
Yep, it's not going to be easy and could be untenable. Might have to adapt as it goes.
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At the risk of granny and eggs, I see it as two elements:

1. Having a list of horses I am interested in backing - stays fairly sparse.
2. Having personal comments against a horse to aid future race analysis - voluminous, but just there when looking at races.
 
chaumi said:
Kelso 12.33 2m6 Novice Class 4

Hard to tell, but one or two of these might be useful for better Northern handicaps later on, so recording here for a post-race check:

View attachment 2810

Nick A : "Gaillimh A Stor ....He has to give weight all round having won his Novice at Ayr back in March, that looks pretty solid form and whilst tomorrow’s run is very much a prep for going chasing, I would like to think he can run well in what looks like a high-class race"

Brian Hughes made some complimentary blog comments on Ballyporeen for this. **edit, seems stable originally bought Bally on Hughes' recommendation** "decent-sized horse with a good attitude and should be capable of winning his maiden hurdle. He is from a nice staying family and was bought as a potential 3m chaser, but I would hope he can win over hurdles this side of Christmas. 28-09-22"


Sandy T : "won a point-to-point at Maisemore Park 12 months ago when with Ben Clarke and is another we like. His first two runs for us in the spring were two good placed efforts in bumpers. He benefited for a summer break and I was delighted with him on his seasonal return at Kelso, where he was a little green and got a bit further behind than ideal but finished well. He's very much one to look forward to as I expect him to develop into a nice 2m4f hurdler this season. He's not the biggest but what he lacks in size he makes up for with lots of heart. 16-11-21"
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James Ewart's Community Rebel ran a nice enough race on hurdles debut. Time was slowest comparative of the day, nothing really obvious to note in this race.

kelso.jpg
 
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chaumi said:
Aintree 12.26 Class 3 Novice Two-and-a-half


View attachment 2812

Some expensive types, may be informative.


David Pipe : "running a promising race on his sole start in an Irish point-to-point when coming down at the last. The race has worked out well and he is clearly a nice prospect, so hopefully he can go well, although this does look like a hot contest"

Ben Pauling : "an interesting horse as he has only had the one run for us when romping home by 20 lengths at Aintree in May. He had not shown a great deal at home prior to that outing so to see him win so easily was a very pleasant surprise. Was very green at Aintree but he has done well over the summer and is almost ready to start off again this season. I'm not sure the race he won was up to much, but he could not have done it more easily and should be interesting"

Dan Skelton : "very exciting horse who won both of his bumpers. He jumps well and has plenty of stamina and likes soft ground. I think we are entitled to be very positive about his potential"

Olly Murphy : "very likeable type who jumps well and should be another lovely one for the future"
Click to expand...


Going: GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places on National course) changing to SOFT after Race 4 (2.11)
Weather conditions: Light rain showers
Wind: Slight crosswind

(looks like whatever I do to enlarge images, the forum inserts them same size)

aintree.jpg

Time roughly on par with most others on the day. Faster than Dashel Drasher's Class 2 later, but that was only a 3-runner race.


Snowy Evening and Man at Work looked to be going best at the back coming to three out. Grey Dawning might have folded after the mistake 3 out but fought on well. The way he kept going would seem to confirm Skelton's comments on stamina.

Likely first two are smart.

Snowy Evening might come out of this unexposed and be the best candidate for value somewhere down the line.
 

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Black Sam Bellamy entries for the Newbury Goffs UK bumper 25th March 2023 (so I don't forget)...


Saturday, 25 March 2023 - 5:00 Den The Diva (GB) 4yo — Bisou (GB)
(Early closer) at Newbury Goffs UK Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Category 1) (GBB Race) (2m½f)


Saturday, 25 March 2023 - 5:00 Posh Et Noir (GB) 4yo — Fairly Posh (GB)
(Early closer) at Newbury Goffs UK Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Category 1) (GBB Race) (2m½f)


Saturday, 25 March 2023 - 5:00 00behra (IRE) 4yo — Behra (IRE)
(Early closer) at Newbury Goffs UK Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Category 1) (GBB Race) (2m½f)


Saturday, 25 March 2023 - 5:00 00dolly Penrose (GB) 4yo — Dolly Penrose (GB)
(Early closer) at Newbury Goffs UK Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Category 1) (GBB Race) (2m½f)


Saturday, 25 March 2023 - 5:00 00tsarinova (GB) 4yo — Tsarinova (GB)
(Early closer) at Newbury Goffs UK Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Category 1) (GBB Race) (2m½f)
 
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Sandown bumper + Ffos las maiden and novice to be checked post-race.


Six or seven could be anything in the bumper.....

But, keep an eye.


privatearing.jpg


Shouldn't be able to get close today. You wouldn't expect an Andy Irvine bumper runner to get within hailing distance of the front 6 in a hot-looking Sandown bumper. But double figures in the high tens or 20s in the 4 place BF market may be worth a few pennies.

PS ..and the close to heavy ground could find some out


**edit** roughly a third of the intended runners are now out, might end up a 4-6 runner race. Disappointing.



****the bumper was abandoned****
 
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I'm having a nightmare with getting readable images inserted.

Nothing works, maybe there's a size limitation in the forum, although one or two seem to be better than others. Same with png or jpg.

Any ideas welcome.

***and will be migrating to ATR cards, didn't realise they have the sales info + better breeding info in general***
 
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