Unexposed races to follow

Anyway.....today has been an interesting day for the thread. Maybe just luck...but from a few runners or angles noted so far, there's been a 66-1/180-1 winner and a 50-1/85-1 2nd + one or two others close up.

But....although I'm encouraged....and I know (or still think) there's some value in this approach...I'm struggling.

Holding down 4 jobs (and just been offered another one)...and I'm getting behind on stuff I have to do for those.

Some lessons learned, and there are a few to follow from those noted so far.

I'll see how those go, and that will hopefully rule out the 'just got lucky' factor that might be at play from some observations so far.

When this thread returns, I'll have worked out a way to monitor and track more effectively.

Parking for now.
 
Chaumi,

There’s no doubt in my mind that there is value in the approach. The problem is always going to be that you will spot an awful lot of horses that seem to have good potential for one reason or another and keeping track becomes an onerous task very quickly. The next problem is sorting out if and when that potential is going to backed.

It’s been a good thread, so thanks.
 
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...and I must just say a big thanks to the member who (out of the blue) offered me access to their stats/form service. That was much appreciated.

I didn't use it, but only because of time constraints. I can see the value and potential for additional ways it can be used, need time to think it through and work out how it fits into the identification and tracking.
 
I know the thread is paused, but I can’t resist putting this one up. The stand out form is Sizing Pottsie, but the other four runners all won their hurdle debut (2nd run in one case) with consummate ease and could be anything. It has the makings of a really interesting race.

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The eagle-eyed may have noticed how many times Black Sam Bellamy bumper runners were mentioned throughout this thread.

The 4.00 Chepstow Friday was a pretty perfect illustration why. Spirits Bay was 40-1 Friday morning. Didn't watch all day, but don't think was much higher than 25 or 26 on BF at any point.

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Black Sam Bellamy died in 2018, so (very very) sadly, we're entering the last year or two where we'll see bumper runners. It's possible that Spirits will prove to be the last (winning) one...but equally possible there are still one or two to go :-).

I would imagine that Privateering won't be one of them (Andy Irvine, the last at Ascot today). Well, virtually certainly not against some running in this race, anyway.

Was down to run in the abandoned bumper at Sandown a week ago, so mildly interesting that they persist in introducing at a Grade 1 track. I'm guessing it's more a travel distance/ best available race thing rather than based on any expectations of getting close.

Might be interesting after this one if sights are lowered a bit...perhaps to the last at one of the 'easier' tracks.
 
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barjon said:
I know the thread is paused, but I can’t resist putting this one up. The stand out form is Sizing Pottsie, but the other four runners all won their hurdle debut (2nd run in one case) with consummate ease and could be anything. It has the makings of a really interesting race.

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It should definitely be interesting, yes.

The Tahmuras Chepstow race was the one that's thrown up the 100-1+ BF Christian Williams winner...and Tahmuras was pretty impressive that day.

Note, too, that Bubble Dubi showed some promise in that Chepstow race....and did not run at all badly in the Ascot Class 2 yesterday, making a good-looking move at one point in what looked a potentially very strong field, and it may have been an error to go so wide off the final turn. Possibly the combination of ground lost and running away from everyone else contributed to the eventual beaten distance. Also possible that Bubble really wants two and a half. Hampered too, I believe. Bubble might go a little under the radar as an outcome.
 
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My note for Tahmuras after Chepstow was “can’t see him being beaten at this level” and he was just as impressive in this Listed race. Tolworth at Sandown next on the agenda it’s said.
 
Two of interest today.

Brentford Hope 1:05 Ludlow 7/4 atm

Touted for greatness on the flat in his early days he hasn’t lived up to that, but he has won a couple and not disgraced in pattern company. Should see these off in his hurdle debut if he can jump and that “if” is what I want to see.

Swapped 12:40 Kempton 4/1 atm

This one is highly thought of and ran a decent race at Stratford into second although miles behind winner. Henderson says “I like Swapped quite a lot but he has a bit more to learn and this might well be soft enough for him.”.
 
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barjon said:
Two of interest today.

Brentford Hope 1:05 Ludlow 7/4 atm

Touted for greatness on the flat in his early days he hasn’t lived up to that, but he has won a couple and not disgraced in pattern company. Should see these off in his hurdle debut if he can jump and that “if” is what I want to see.

Swapped 12:40 Kempton 4/1 atm

This one is highly thought of and ran a decent race at Stratford into second although miles behind winner. Henderson says “I like Swapped quite a lot but he has a bit more to learn and this might well be soft enough for him.”.
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Brentford Hope put in promising run, I thought. Second and well in front of the rest despite not trying too hard when the well-fancied winner took charge. Jumped quite well aside from one mistake and I think he’ll feature.

Swapped never in the race at any stage and I hope it was the ground otherwise there’s nothing at all that would raise your pulse.
 
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