US Presidential election 2016
- Thread starter Warbler
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icebreaker
At the Start
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Rather than humility, I interpret it as self-serving and agenda-driven. I see this speechifying "praise" of Cruz as the Donald's opening gambit of a drive to garner the Cruz evangelists -- a demographic that is now up for grabs.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Politicians lying, who'd have thunk it!
It's got little to do with demographics. It's got a lot more to do with the tactical response of trying to ignore the name calling and remain above the fray in the name of seizing a higher moral ground rather than get sucked into a mud fight. That what Dukakis and Kerry tried to do. GHB was particularly severe on Dukakis with some quite brutal attack ads, particularly with his role on law and order. Karl Rove inventing swift boat veterans who had nothing to do with Kerry's command, and thus turning Kerry's own Vietnam record against him, when a clear draft dodger who decided to serve in the national air defence reserve, flying crop sprayers around Texas (and he barely did that as he went AWOL)
That's not what people said would happen though. People were incredibly clear that as the field thinned out, support for suspending candidates would transfer to other candidates whilst Trump remained more or less static held down by his ceiling of 25% that could conceivably rise to 30%. Basically Trump was supposed to be a temporary phenomenon, benefiting from a crowded field at the beginning, but who would ultimately get overtaken as the likes of Carson served voters to Cruz and Bush served them to Rubio. It didn't happen like that though. The commentators were wrong.
I agree it should do, but there has been countless examples of it to date, and it hasn't damaged him. It's become more and more apparent that Trump is an intellectual vacuum with very little curiousity and a near zero understanding of issues. Where is this push back? He should have been chewed up and spat out by now
If we say that the GOP makes up about 47% of the electorate (Romney result) and crudely speaking you have two very strong 'alt right' candidates taking out about 45% and 30% of that respectively, that's about 35% of American voters as things stand, voting for something akin to UKIP
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Aye. Exactly. To not vote for someone because they've told a lie strikes me as odd, (although I think Hillary is being painted as pathological). They must really hate her. They'd rather vote in the man who 'tells it how it is' and the chosen one who is going to make America great again. Ah well....
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'Fact Checker' constantly finds that Hillary tells the truth more than any other candidate in the race (Trump is the biggest liar) yet if you surveyed Americans you'd probably discover that Lyin' Ted would be regarded as the least honest, and 'trust' still ranks as Hillary's biggest negative characteristic
"Tells is as it is", has become one of these dreadfully Orwellian tags that Trump has attracted. The simple fact is, he's the least 'tell it as it is' candidate on display, because so much of what he tells simply isn't true. It ranks alongside the other thing you hear a lot from Trump supporters; "he doesn't mean it", which is trotted out each time he says something stupid. Quite how so many American's think they're uniquely blessed with some sort of insight into Donald Trump, and what he means and doesn't mean, is anyone's guess, but they really ought to be judging him on what he says, and not the bits they want to hear
The third thing you're increasingly hearing coming out from the US is that "Trump's a genius" (or similar adjective). No he isn't. He's actually said very little that would qualify as genius. The deficit is in the supplyside, but voters (not surprisingly) aren't prepared to look at themselves quite so critically, adn therefore its more palatable to say he must be a genius/ master etc rather than face up to the other explanation. He's basically got away with some incredibly stupid things, what should that tell us? This is a volatile electorate that's a little bit disorientated
"Tells is as it is", has become one of these dreadfully Orwellian tags that Trump has attracted. The simple fact is, he's the least 'tell it as it is' candidate on display, because so much of what he tells simply isn't true. It ranks alongside the other thing you hear a lot from Trump supporters; "he doesn't mean it", which is trotted out each time he says something stupid. Quite how so many American's think they're uniquely blessed with some sort of insight into Donald Trump, and what he means and doesn't mean, is anyone's guess, but they really ought to be judging him on what he says, and not the bits they want to hear
The third thing you're increasingly hearing coming out from the US is that "Trump's a genius" (or similar adjective). No he isn't. He's actually said very little that would qualify as genius. The deficit is in the supplyside, but voters (not surprisingly) aren't prepared to look at themselves quite so critically, adn therefore its more palatable to say he must be a genius/ master etc rather than face up to the other explanation. He's basically got away with some incredibly stupid things, what should that tell us? This is a volatile electorate that's a little bit disorientated
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SlimChance
Guest
I didn't say Truno was sincere. He's the same as all other politicians, it's not just Trump.
Both Clinton and Trump have unprecedented unfavourable figures. Warbler has simplified Trump's parth to victory. He needs to win Florida and flip three states in the North East. That can happen. Both of them more skeletons buried than a Nazi concentrate camp. Hillary had the upper hand because of the Denocratic demographic of the political landscape. There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge. A few good judges including a political odds compiler think 1/2 Hillary would be a gift. I'm not so sure.
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icebreaker
At the Start
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Kasich due to deliver an announcement @ 5:00 Eastern Time.
Maybe withdrawing also?
Maybe withdrawing also?
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SlimChance
Guest
Has to be. He's out of dough and the party wants to focus on the general election.
I am not saying lying is good ethical political practice.. but this isn't a contest between two local council candidates ...it's a race to be the most powerful representative of the western world. I haven't (as usual) done much research into what I am talking about..i am sure Hillary has lied a few times... Trump spouts the truth...but his truth is all bullshit! He is like a rag and bone man profiting from other people's rubbish. All they'll be getting back is a baloon.
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SlimChance
Guest
In theory he could still not reach 1,237. In reality their only way out is if he dies or the world ends.
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How can he not reach 1,237?
My naiive reading of the remaining Republican Primaries/Caucases/what-have-yous is that they'll now be akin to 'rotten boroughs' in that there's now only one Republican candidate to vote for and if 99.9% of Republican voters decide to abstain then Trump would secure his delegates from the 1% who remain true to the cause
I'm feel pretty sure I've got this all wrong
My naiive reading of the remaining Republican Primaries/Caucases/what-have-yous is that they'll now be akin to 'rotten boroughs' in that there's now only one Republican candidate to vote for and if 99.9% of Republican voters decide to abstain then Trump would secure his delegates from the 1% who remain true to the cause
I'm feel pretty sure I've got this all wrong
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SlimChance
Guest
Cruz and Kasich will still be on the ballots.
Not that they will, but technically the rules committee could still introduce a rule that disqualifies him. The GOP is a private party that you choose to support by invitation. It doesn't operate on one member one vote
Anyway, the battle moves to these types of things now (glad to see the back of RCP's delegate predicting tool) that proved to be a giant red herring
http://www.270towin.com/
and Nate Silver's model which I think is going to prove flawed given that it doesn't profile gender. I expect that will become a more decisive factor but introducing starts generating double counting
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
The one thing I've always found beguiling about this tool, is just how easy it is to turn Wisconsin red. I just think there are local factors going on there though which will make it harder, but we need to remember that Trump held a comfortable lead in the primary before he endured a particular wretched fortnight that ultimately did for him. He started off tweeting ferocious pictures of Heidi Cruz, finished it by suggetsing women who had abortions should be treated as criminals, and in between decided to stand by his campaign manager who was being investigated for battery, and threw a bit of Saudi Arabia should be allowed nuclear wepaons into the mix for good measure, having suggested a week earlier they were behind 9/11 (I do wonder if he's actually suffering early stage dementia at times)
Anyway, the battle moves to these types of things now (glad to see the back of RCP's delegate predicting tool) that proved to be a giant red herring
http://www.270towin.com/
and Nate Silver's model which I think is going to prove flawed given that it doesn't profile gender. I expect that will become a more decisive factor but introducing starts generating double counting
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
The one thing I've always found beguiling about this tool, is just how easy it is to turn Wisconsin red. I just think there are local factors going on there though which will make it harder, but we need to remember that Trump held a comfortable lead in the primary before he endured a particular wretched fortnight that ultimately did for him. He started off tweeting ferocious pictures of Heidi Cruz, finished it by suggetsing women who had abortions should be treated as criminals, and in between decided to stand by his campaign manager who was being investigated for battery, and threw a bit of Saudi Arabia should be allowed nuclear wepaons into the mix for good measure, having suggested a week earlier they were behind 9/11 (I do wonder if he's actually suffering early stage dementia at times)
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Please steer me in the direction of Warbler's simplified math. If I go back to the WP article where the time frame for the electoral map used is 1992 thru 2012 and every state voting for a democratic nominee every time during that time frame then the Dems have 242 electoral votes, 28 short of a nomination. I'd say that is a more than solid staring point. Trump would need to find 168 votes, which Florida and 3 biggest northeastern states cant cover. All this before the general election has begun and Trump gets truly exposed in a one on one. I never look at bets as gifts but it would be tempting at those odds.
How can he not reach 1,237?
My naiive reading of the remaining Republican Primaries/Caucases/what-have-yous is that they'll now be akin to 'rotten boroughs' in that there's now only one Republican candidate to vote for and if 99.9% of Republican voters decide to abstain then Trump would secure his delegates from the 1% who remain true to the cause
I'm feel pretty sure I've got this all wrong
He'll reach the required number of delegates now regardless of who is left on the ballot. What will be interesting is what his percentages are going to be now that he is running against two ghost candidates.
My theory on why it has not damaged him is that the crowded field worked to his advantage. When he was exposed in that Fox debate he could always fall back on going after little Marco or lyin' Ted with all the accompanying insults afterwards, and immediately shift the narrative. While she is not a good campaigner (she has stated this on more than one occasion) she is a superb debater and she is going to eat him up and spit him out when debate time rolls around. Will insults work after that, I have my doubts. Wonder what excuse he is going to use when the topic of his tax returns comes on the table. Will we see another Megyn Kelly moment? There is so much material to work with here.
Post #736
It's a changing landscape as the GOP is in the process of redefining itself and the 'big tent' is being torn down. The 'five ring circus' probably demonstrates how the party strcuture is a series of competing factions better, with a very small sweet spot in the middle which might not even exist, but would theoretically unite the lot. This explanation works as a graphic, but even that isn't quite right as it assumes the circles are equally concentric and static. The reality is they're actually irregular 'splodges', and shift
I used the Romney map as the nearest, and assumed that Trump can generate the 0.75% swing necessary to win Florida given that its a second home for him, one of the few states he has a ground game in, and that he's already heavily defeated a sitting senator, would have beaten a former governor, and has Rick Scott firmly on side.
Kasich can probably deliver Ohio (if on the ticket) and I also gave him Iowa where Hillary has always struggled, and one of the few states thats trending red. After that, anyone of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan wins him the White House, which assumes he doesn't lose Arizona, North Carolina or Utah (Wisconsin makes it a tie actually which might get interesting!),
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What might be more interesting is to see if Bernie Sanders gets a bounce as Trumpsters and independents switch into Democrat primaries (registration varies I believe state by state, but I think there's still scope for doing so)
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
What are you trying to prove smart ass.It was a figure of speech
Everyone knows he borrowed $1m from his father and now he is worth $Billions. He tells us every day and many who started with $1 million failed.
He on the other hand is a living legend which I suppose must bug you as you obviously hate the man..
If there was anything untoward about his business Clinton through her media contacts would have exposed him by now. So I assume by applying common sense you are spouting shyte out of your trap.
Everyone around Trump who knows him reckons he's as genuine a man as you could meat, down to earth and fun to be around so I don't know about love of himself. No one has said anything remotely like that about the man unless you want to count other candidates like Lying Ted.
You're talking about a man who is so down to earth he is willing to take a drop in his standards by flying Air Force One ffs.
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Democrats are already setting expectations of Clinton's massacre in the debate so high, she had better be able to live up to them! She won't find this easy though as the rules of engagement are seriously tight in terms of when she's allowed to speak, and the terms she's allowed to intervene on. Don't expect Trump to negotiate an open format
I actually suspect however that we won't see a traditional 'debate' but rather Trump making a sales pitch. He can probably mount a better sales pitch than her. Then we'll see whose ended up making the better impression? He'll go big on sentiment reassuring everyone that he'll deliver them to sunnier upper pastures and that they'll all love it because everyting will be beautiful. He'll also paint a dystpoic picture for those who fail to embrace him. In theory such shallowness shouldn't work, but don't be shocked to find that a helluva lot more people are taken in by it then you'd like admit are capable of being. People will identify with 'Make America Great Again' before they do 'Make America Whole' (I think she's dropped that badly conceived strap line now anyway).
Debating with a populist who is reaching into the camera rather than addressing the podium is never easy. She's got to nail him on substance, he'll avoid that and go big on sentiment. America is the world's archetypal consumer society and this is what Trump will play into. He'll promise to make things better for everyone, she'll end up complaining that he's never said how he's going to do it. Then people decide. You can have Trump's unsubstantiated promises of milk and honey where everything is going to be "beautiful, big and everyone will love it" or you can have more of the same with Hillary Clinton
It'll get nasty of course, she'll accuse him of being a Democrat, and he'll brag about how he's bought her in the past, and comes running to his wedding the moment she thinks she might get some money off him for her senate campaigns and the Clinton Foundation
I think the other thing to remember about his gaffes though is that a lot of them didn't come in the debates, so I'm not sure the name calling as his escape pod really applies to the level you're ascribing to it. Most of them came in interviews, town halls, or on Twitter
The two most crucial ones in the debate cycle were made by Rubio in New Hampshire, which to be honest blew up out of all proportion to what he actually said, and Cruz in Iowa when "New York values" not only came back to bite him in the Big Apple, but also rolled out to the rest of Yankee land
He could always help himself mind you if he actually prepares a bit for a change
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AliGupter
At the Start
DO we think Trump has changed the last month or two and become more prepared and sensible? When do we expect his VP nomination to be announced?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Where Trump goes now depends very much on who he takes on as a running partner.
If you try to build a model based on recent history, there's just no one jumps out to be standing side by side with the man. Whoever it is will be a serious but outgoing person with a vast knowledge of politics and from a state where his own peoples votes could make a big difference. "Ted Cruz has a huge future" he said..he wouldn't would he?
What will happen will happen. Both candidates will run their campaigns to the best of their ability but personalities will win the day. As Hillary doesn't have a personality the most likely outcome is a solid Republican win by Donald J Trump.
The democrats have made a huge mistake having Hillary Clinton lead the charge she'll be cut off at the pass the minute she attacks Trump.
Telling the people that husband Bill will be put to work lost her enough votes to suffer a shock defeat at the hands of Bernie Saunders in the latest round. Men hated the way she came across like she was saying I am boss and he will do as told.
The Clinton camp spend millions on ads and propaganda to bring Trump down but one look at the Charisma surround him with a fabulous family V Hillary Horse Face and Geriatric Bill the sex pervert the money is money down the drain.
One only need to go to you tube and read the comments.......I have never seen so much hate aimed at one women while Trump gets 80% positive comments
Tump is no Bernie Saunders and he did ok against her but Trump will destroy her
The Trump Family get more popular by the day with the people and Trump will win over the party and the people and will be President.
Go to Utube
If you try to build a model based on recent history, there's just no one jumps out to be standing side by side with the man. Whoever it is will be a serious but outgoing person with a vast knowledge of politics and from a state where his own peoples votes could make a big difference. "Ted Cruz has a huge future" he said..he wouldn't would he?
What will happen will happen. Both candidates will run their campaigns to the best of their ability but personalities will win the day. As Hillary doesn't have a personality the most likely outcome is a solid Republican win by Donald J Trump.
The democrats have made a huge mistake having Hillary Clinton lead the charge she'll be cut off at the pass the minute she attacks Trump.
Telling the people that husband Bill will be put to work lost her enough votes to suffer a shock defeat at the hands of Bernie Saunders in the latest round. Men hated the way she came across like she was saying I am boss and he will do as told.
The Clinton camp spend millions on ads and propaganda to bring Trump down but one look at the Charisma surround him with a fabulous family V Hillary Horse Face and Geriatric Bill the sex pervert the money is money down the drain.
One only need to go to you tube and read the comments.......I have never seen so much hate aimed at one women while Trump gets 80% positive comments
Tump is no Bernie Saunders and he did ok against her but Trump will destroy her
The Trump Family get more popular by the day with the people and Trump will win over the party and the people and will be President.
Go to Utube
I always get the impression people hate Hillary for reasons that they can't really spell out.
Could people cut to the chase, I am not a historian of American politics so I'd like to know what has Hillary done that is so upsetting to people.
She has experience, (which counts for something in my book).
On a more two-dimensional level she would be the first female president.
So tell me, what are her sins?
Could people cut to the chase, I am not a historian of American politics so I'd like to know what has Hillary done that is so upsetting to people.
She has experience, (which counts for something in my book).
On a more two-dimensional level she would be the first female president.
So tell me, what are her sins?
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