I think Trump has probably locked the Hispanic vote up for her, she doesn't need to go with Castro, and in any event, he's a bit lightweight (Democrat Rubio) the sort of career manufactured politician that hasn't really done well on this cycle. In any case, I think the old idea of a north/ south ticket for the Democrats isn't relevant since Nixon's 'southern strategy' and the schism with the Dixiecrats. It was instrumental with Kennedy putting Johnson on the ticket, but that was before Strom Thurmond et al. The only state she might be sniffing around is Georgia, but she doesn't need it. If she wins Georgia, she's won anyway. Georgia might start trending purple, and possibly go blue in the next 10 years. It's almost like a natural correction given that so many southern voters are voting against their own economic interests. Texas is another state that has a shifting demographic, but I think we're still a generation away before the Democrats re-enter the south big time. It's one those bizzare voting patterns really. It's kind of addressed in the book "What's the Matter with Kansas", whereby it explores how the GOP have succeeded in introducing emotive hot-button issues that are able to move people who should be natural economic Democrats, into voting Republican
The problem with Booker (and Warren and Brown) is that they'll be replaced by Republicans in the house. Having said that, Hillary is struggling with young voters, and if she wants to mimic the Obama presidency and reach this cohort, I can see that Booker is a decent bet. Dare she risk allowing Christie to nominate his replacement in New Jersey though?
Strangely enough, the one who hits most of the critieria is Perez, but is he televisual? He looks a bit odd to me
Incidentally the four polls carried out with the Orlando shootings in them by way of influence show Trump losing ground to Hillary Clinton. Basically he blew the discussion that followed. If there is any saving grace in the findings for him, it's that these are national polls. There is some evidence that its antis doubling down on him from the relative immaterial bunkers of safe Democrat states. My own gues is that its Hispnaics, and its putting states like New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado out of reach for him. The battleground states (excluding the three just mentioned which he can't win the WH off anyway) still look more even, but fewer polls exists post Orlando for these, so we'll have to wait until the conventions to get a better picture. If Trump is unable to convert terrorist attacks into support though (and the early evidence suggests he can't), then he's got a mountain climb
America only gets about 15% of her oil from Saudi I think, but you're undoubtedly correct that as the world starts to move towards renewables the need to kow tow to Saudi Arabia diminishes (hence why I included the famous Makhtoum quote about riding camels and driving Mercedes). Its really about trade and how the US has protected Saudi Arabia in return for being allowed to dip into her as a backdoor funding pool. Foreign policy based on trade is always going to be greyer than one based on morality, but it isn't a one way street. This is exchange from Syriania/ See No Evil, probably sums it up
Nasir: “My cousins aren’t bright enough to be anything more than finger puppets and my brother has faith only in his own cunning. What do you suppose they are up to, my brother and these American lawyers? Tell me. What are they thinking?”
Woodman: “What are they thinking? They’re thinking that it’s running out. It’s running out. And 90 percent of what’s left is in the Middle East. Look at the progression: Versailles, Suez, 1973, Gulf War I, Gulf War II. This is a fight to the death. So what are they thinking? Great. They’re thinking ‘keep playing. Keep buying yourself new toys. Keep spending $50,000 a night on your hotel room. But don’t invest in your infrastructure. Don’t build a real economy.’ So that when you finally wake up, they will have sucked you dry. And you will have squandered the greatest natural resource in history.”
Nasir: “I studied at Oxford. I have a Ph.D. from Georgetown. I want to create a parliament. I want to give women the right to vote. I want an independent judiciary. I want to start a petroleum exchange in the Middle East, cut the speculators out of the business. Why are the major oil exchanges in London and New York, anyway? I’ll put all of our energy up for competitive bidding. I’ll run pipe through Iran to Europe, like you proposed. I’ll ship to China. Anything that achieves efficiency and maximizes profit. Profit, which I will then use to rebuild my country.”
Woodman: “Great. That’s exactly what you should do.”
Nasir: “Exactly. Except your president rings my father and says ‘I’ve got unemployment in Texas, Kansas, Washington state.’ One phone call later, we’re stealing out of our social programs in order to buy overpriced airplanes. We owed the Americans but we’ve repaid that debt. I accepted a Chinese bid, the highest bid. And suddenly, I’m a terrorist. I’m a godless communist. Dean Whiting, who represents not only these aggrieved royals and my brother but also Connex Oil. They’ve been pressuring my father to invalidate the Chinese contract. But they underestimate him. This is about his legacy to his people.
I think Norway is due to ban internal combustion by 2025 IIRC, and Chile announced last week that they were 100% on renewables for their energy supply now. Even Scotland met their targets last week. It seems that with every passing week there's a new energy announcement moving in this direction. China now gets more of their energy from renewables than carbon polluting sources I seem to recall too. The move has been rapid.
Saudi has placed a massive bet on the price and doubled down on it by pumping an over supply to try and deter countries from the prohibitive capital investment that renewables need, but the world is basically turning its back on the middle east. Indeed, the Saudis have announced a mass privatisation programme, an investment programme of $2tn, and their intention to go to the markets to raise funds for the first time in ages. I think they realise they're position is unsustainable. Lets be honest, 80% of their workforce are foreigners. The country is based on the labour of paid workers. They do very little themselves and have next to nothing outside of vanity property developments and oil infrastruture.
The Saudis are alert to how vulnerable they are, hence why last year they agreed to shelter Pakistani nuclear weapons on their soil to deter an Indian first strike - yeah right - they know that a few blind eyes might not be so blind in the future (this one is still being fought over and bleeds into the American/ Iran deal of course). They've also made massive defence procurements in the last 5 years too, now the second biggest market in the world I think (certainly third). Obviously these are the sorts of decisions you would take if all you're doing is sponsoring educational trusts and poverty relief programmes. Oh and Trump thinks it would be a good idea if they became an independent nuclear power because we can't stop them anyway - I mean, what could go wrong? "'I Hate Proliferation' But It Would Be Better if Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea Had Nuclear Weapons" - 29/3/16 - honestly Donald it wouldn't!!!
