US Presidential election 2016

should be some interesting reprisals though...especially as Trump's "sexist" comments were described as just a "tip of the iceburg" re what they have from the apprentice show.

some interesting days ahead
 
I'm not sure what they've got from the Apprentice. There's certainly plenty of allegations floating around regarding content, but so far as I know the Democrats are relying (well appealing would be a better description) for it to be leaked. The Clinton PAC's have offered to pay the $10M that anyone who leaks it will be sued for, but so far as we know, the people who have the information are Trump loyalists and are sitting tight

Trump has a lead of 4pts in FL on the latest poll incidentally, which has now caused RCP to put it his column. He's a point in the lead on the five most recent and seems to have enjoyed a 2.5% swing.

He's also gaining in Arizona again, and I think we can expect that to go back in his column in the next few days (it should never have been in hers anyway). More telling will be Nevada and Colorado. On this kind of FL swing he'll get NV back soon, and is going to be snapping at her heals in North Carolina too.

We won't know for certain until we see the first post FBI polls (about 3 days)

My own guess is that the impact won't be as cataclysmic as people are suggesting. The only real flux has to be the undecideds. There is some evidence (and logic) to suggest these could be Trumpers. Basically Trump has said and done so many disqualifying things by now, that if you're still undecided it's difficult to imagine he can do much more to convince not to vote for him. So long as he campaigns with a degree of dignity (10 days is about the max he can maintain this pretence) then they might go over to Trump in a ratio of 66/33

Ultimately though, so long as she holds PA and NH he shouldn't be able to overtake her, although this is dependent on Trump not being to flip CO, if he can, then she needs to take NC. There is a possible route beginning to open up that doesn't involve PA, and without that safety net Hillary becomes quite a bit more vulnerable
 
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Warbler said:
My own guess is that the impact won't be as cataclysmic as people are suggesting. The only real flux has to be the undecideds. There is some evidence (and logic) to suggest these could be Trumpers. Basically Trump has said and done so many disqualifying things by now, that if you're still undecided it's difficult to imagine he can do much more to convince not to vote for him. So long as he campaigns with a degree of dignity (10 days is about the max he can maintain this pretence) then they might go over to Trump in a ratio of 66/33
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What's the history of Turnout percentage in Presidential Elections Warbler? Do they tend to be pretty similar every four years or have they shown the volatility of UK General Elections?

At present the joint fav spreads are 54-57.99 and 58-61.99 at about 11/4 and given the volume of sleaze continuing to gush from both camps it crosses my mind that a significant number of 'undecideds' might decide that the best way to vent their dissatisfaction would be by abstaining. Or isn't that the American way?

50-53.99 is ~11/2 and 49.99 or less ~9/1

Value?
 
Historically its a couple of percentage points lower than ours

They do things like early voting (already underway in some states) but also the actual process and time taken to vote is protracted (especially in Miami Dade!). The basic tactic involves the state supplying a one armed, one eyed election official, with just three machines, two of which are faulty, and making people queue round the block for hours to vote and hope they simply give up. I have little doubt that we'll see some of these allegations surface (they usually do)

Turnout has been the subject of speculation. No one knows in truth. Some are predicting a big turnout in recognition of the polarising nature of the candidates. Others are suggetsing a protest abstention and stay at home vote because the choice is so lousy. The general consensus is that low turnout favours Trump, and this is the pattern in mid terms when Republicans tend to make gains in line with the fact they're more likely to vote. Trump's hardcore are probably more fanatical too, but then they probably amount to about 20% of the electorate and alreayd factored in. Set against this though is Trump's deplorably bad ground game, its a shambles. Hillary is much, much, better organised

I'm still waiting to see the first polls that cover the FBI email period in the sample entirety. So far with seen a couple which might have bits and pieces in them, but my own guess is that Clinton isn't going to be as damaged as you might imagine. It's true however that the American have tended to hold her to a higher level account than Trump (I think they despair at him and have just given up hoping). I think it's equally true though that a vast majority are hard wired into their choice by now and its only the 6% undecideds and softer waiverers up for grabs

The more I'm trying to sketch things out, I think Colorado could emerge as the key state on the maths, but we'll see, there's a lot that can happen between now and next week still
 
Aha ... great minds etc (well sort of)

Nate Silver has come to a similar conclusion it would appear regarding Colorado. About half way down the page he's produced a very neat graphic (a winding road)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Now he's not quite so dystopic as me, as he's predicting that Hillary will carry Florida and stop Trump there and then. I'm not quite so optimistic, and I still think he has scope in Nevada and North Carolina, which leaves Colorado as the next line of defence

Trump was leading in Nevada until the Access Hollywood tape broke, there is some evidence however that the impact of this is already diluting, and NV doesn't have a rep for being a particularly high information voting state. Remington has produced a series of state polls since which are a snapshots conducted exclusively on October 30th (2 days after the FBI intervention) and gives Trump a 4pt lead there. The four most recent polls give him an average lead of 0.5pts. I think he's likely ahead in NV right now. The RCP average only shows Clinton winning because of some historical polls from mid October (about the time of the Access Hollywood tape). I've got it in my head however that Remington are Republican pollsters? and the timing of these polls in key swing states does look a tad suspicious (I'll need to check that out)

North Carolina experienced a similar reaction to the tape, but hasn't shown the same signs of forgiveness. Hillary's lead has consolidated there. Again Remington has produced what looks like another 'push poll' and have Trump on a lead of +2. Unlike NV though, the nearest polls to it, don't bear out the same sorts of findings. I'm much more wary of this one. NC is a Romney state though, and you'd think Trump has to stand a chance there. If anything it's Clinton over performing that ha smade this one competitve. Will it revert to type ? Trump's shambolic ground game in the state might be costing him, but her lead has been pretty steady for a month now. If he does succeed in swinging NC back at the 11th hour though, the next firebreak is Colorado, and this is where I suspect the Trump train gets derailed
 
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Warbler said:
Arizona

Unless Trump gets involved in another fall out with McCain, I suspect he can regain the lead in Arizona
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OK, this needn't have been the most prescient of predictions, but Arizona is back in Trump's column according to the RCP forecast as of an hour ago, albeit it seems to be based around two recent polls conducted in the two-way race. There might be a stronger third party vote in AZ though due to a loyal McCain factor, but my best guess is that Trump is indeed winning AZ, even if it hasn't shown in the 4-way race yet. He's now forecast to win 244 college votes. He was on 195 last Friday

Nevada and North Carolina have to be the next two targets

Just as an aside, Maine's second congressional district has also been polled (small sample) but was done exclusively during the email period. This is showing a Clinton lead of +2, which is similar to the +1 and +3 that have been recorded previously. Maine's second CD has been taken out of Trump's column and added to Clinton's (1 CV). It does perhaps indicate that the damage to Clinton might not be as serious as first thought (perhaps 1% no greater than 2%) but even this will be enough for him to take Florida, Arizona, Utah, probably Nevada and have him deadlocked in North Carolina. New Hampshire also has a poll these evening that suggests she's been unaffected. It's as if the Democrat states are solidifying behind her, whereas the purple states and undecideds are wobbling

I expect Trump to edge back ahead in Nevada shortly, and then its game on as North Carolina and Colorado move centre stage. If he takes all three (on the current map) he's the 45th President. He needs to despatch Ivanka to Colorado in full wild west cowgirl outfit!!!
 
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I thought you said Clinton was a banker the othernight warbler and the fbi thing would make no difference..:ninja:
 
Urm ..... it's getting hairy

I said Trump would win back in January but gradually came to believe she would. As of tonight though, God only knows. There's a poll out in the last few hours from North Carolina that gives him +7. I thought the Remington poll from earlier was likely optimistic, but if this +7 is right, then I doubt she can turn that around in the next week.

It's worth remembering though that places like NC and AZ are Republican states. He hasn't made any in roads onto the Democrat states yet (well actually that's not true, as Florida has swung his way in the last 48 hrs) but that one always goes back and forth a bit

If Colorado holds she'll still win

If Nevada holds (and she loses Colorado) she should still win provided Maine's second district (that one vote I talked about) stays with her 270-268

To some extent North Carolina was always a bonus, but wasn't essential to her path

The evidence of the emails in Democrat states is that it isn't having much impact (so far as I can tell) but there are a few states where the margins are small, and even if it only nibbles out 2% it's enough to put pressure on places like Nevada and Colorado. Her support in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota doesn't look to have been affected

I think within the next few days people are going to suddenly realise how critical Colorado is. It's under the radar really, but it looks like being the tipping state (unless she can get Florida back)

Let it be said that as things stand this evening at 01.30 in the morning, the gurus at 538 who are paid to be the experts on this thing have the following forecast

Clinton 323 and Trump 215

This is much more optimistic than my forecast of a few days ago that

Clinton 278 Trump 260

Edit

In the last hour Nate Silver has dashed off a piece called "yes Donald Trump has a path to victory" coming on a day that has seen some wild movement in the softer states, whereas the deeper states have tended to consolidate

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/
 
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All very strange stuff trump attending massive rallys and Clinton playing to hundreds almost as though expecting defeat very weird...
 
Trump has been given to organising mass Nurenburg type rallies for months, they usually end up with chants of 'lock her up' or more recently 'drain the swamp'. Hillary's relied on the more initimate town hall and school gymnasiums. The thing of course is that Trump is box office, and she isn't. It needn't be a reliable proxy of support though. Trump has spent a lot of money on car stickers, baseball caps, and coffeee mugs, she's spent hers on advertising, and made it pretty well impossible for Trump to respond as she block booked the advertising space in the swing states months ago

I think its worth noting that a lot of the reputable pollsters with a history of accuracy have withdrawn from public polling in the last few weeks. PPP explained that they simply don't get the exposure for making a poll public anymore. Basically their poll gets rolled up into an average and lost. A lot of them are therefore doing private commissioned work instead which is leaving the void to be filled by a lot of relatively untried newcomers and tracking polls. It's how we're seeing some strange results. One poll came out recently to suggest that Clinton is within comfortable striking range in Alaska for instance (Trump leads by +3) when McCain won by +21.

What Trump has done, probably as much by happenstance than strategic design, is risk damaging his super majorities in safe states in order to try and attract base Democrats in swing states. Winning Alaska by 20pts for instance has the same impact as winning it by 2. If through UKIP type messaging however he can appeal to say just 3% of the Democrat vote in Iowa, then he can potentially win them both. It's a very narrow flight path though. If you overdo it, you can lose states that should be in the bag like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina

The other major analyst who has won himself a reputation as an accurate predictor in the last few years has been Sam Wang of Princeton University. His reputation is probably on a par to Silver's amongst those who follow these things. His most recent modelling (and they keep these things up to date in situ) has Clinton on 317 and Trump 221 (probably the result of calling Nevada differently)

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

It's an interesting one if you want to bet as the scientists are telling you Hillary Clinton is the winner, and with a degree of comfort, whereas the gut trusters are perhaps sensing that Trump might be getting something going.

Trump has never been above 44% in the four way polling, and that's not enough. Interestingly though, Trump's current mark of 43.1 on the RCP average is his high water mark. Gary Johnson is currently at 4.6, (down another 0.7pts since I first flagged this a few days). 4.6 is the Libertarians lowest mark of the campaign. It's gone largely unacknowledged with all this talk about emails and FBI etc but honestly, you don't need to be genius to put the two together to work out whats happening I reckon. Trump hits his highest average rating at the same time as Johnson hits his lowest? Libertarian 'never Trumpers' are discovering that the prospect of Hillary Clinton is worse than their gesture vote and are coming out of their protest position. I would imagine there's a 2% erosion left in the Libertarian vote yet if it reverts to the type of usual cycles. It's likely to get squeezed most in swing states where voters have to consider that their protest vote is wasted

Crudely I suspect you could look at the swing state polls and reduce Johnson to about 2%. Then take the difference between the two marks and allocate about 70% of it to Trump and 30% to Clinton
 
Well the overnight polls for the morning networks have come in on the RCP average, and Nevada has now fallen. Well actually its fallen on a bit of a technicality (they've removed the Las Vegas Journal poll that gave Hillary +7 from 2 weeks ago from the sample). Also joining NV in the red column is North Carolina (more significant). Again however, this looks like being the result of removing the Marist poll from the average that gave her +6, and relying on this Trump +7 WRAL poll recorded yesterday. That particular poll looks like an outlier, but even if it's 5pts wrong, that's still enough to see Trump confirm NC.

Basically if the current polling is correct, then Colorado has become the last line of defence a few days earlier than I thought, albeit I'm far from convinced the case in Florida is a done deal. Floridans are relatively mature in their decision having been in the spotlight for far longer, and Clinton is still within the margin to hit back and finish it there

Perhaps the most interesting take out on the Trump surge since the FBI intervention (28 October) is to look at Hillary's own polling performance. On October 28th she was 44.9% nationally in the four way race. Today she's on 45.3. Yep that's right. Her own support has risen 0.4%. The growth in the Trump support however has eclipsed this. He's up 2.1% from 41.0% to 43.1%. Where has this come from? Well you have to suspect that 0.7% of it has come from Gary Johnson. The rest has likely come from undecideds finally coming off the fence

Jill Steins support during the same period (support you'd expect might gravitate to Hillary) has remained static (it's actually increased marginally by 0.1%). I suspect there might be 1% panic voting to come yet from the Greens and that Stein will get squeezed in the last few days

Can we extrapolate how the undecideds are breaking though? well we can only guess. If Trump is up 2.1% and we think that 0.7% of that has come from the Libertarians (its clearly wrong to think everyone who has deserted the Johnson camp has transferred to Trump but bear with me), then we might very crudely say Trump has picked up 1.4% and Hillary 0.4% from the undecideds. It's a crude ratio of 3.5 to 1, which is more likely to be 3 to 1 given the imperfect transfer.

If Trump is indeed able to mop up the undecideds at a ratio of 3 to 1, then Colorado will also fall in the next few days (I was working on 2 to 1 making it a razor edge Clinton win). Jill Stein has a reasonable showing in Colorado though, perhaps panic stricken Greens could ride to the rescue yet (mind you Johnson also has a strong following) but then the state GOP is distinctly anti Trump (remember how they rigged the primary against him?). Johnson's vote in CO has to be fluffed by some of these 'never Trump' diehards

The other great caveat is the quality of this raft of polls that our now appearing. Both Nate Silver and Sam Wang have chosen to ignore them as unreliable, unproven, or just darn right partisan in places. If they're right, then their own modelled forecasts will hold and Hillary has a decent enough 4% lead. If they're wrong, then American is about to experience its own Brexit shock. It'll be interesting to see if they start revising their predictions in the next few days/ hours, or whether they hold their position (I suspect they'll hold out)

As punters its the classic case of the stats based data man versus the instinctive gut truster
 
Looks like the evenings polls are showing signs of settling down as a couple of the more reputable companies have entered the fray. Deal with the good news for Trump first

CNN/ ORC have a poll for Arizona giving Trump +5. I think the Democrats brief dream of taking AZ is probably over. It was never material to their path
CNN/ ORC also have a poll for Nevada giving Trump +6, which is higher than the Remington one. There's a lot of Mexican influence in Nevada, but then again its a fairly low paid economy. The illegal Mexican workers won't be registered to vote but will be active in the fringe economy. It looks to me as if the argument is moving in his direction here. I've never been totally convinced that legal workers of Mexican origin will vote against Trump in the numbers imagined

Now for the less encouraging news for Trump

Emerson has a poll for Colorado taken from the 28th Oct which shows Clinton +3. There's still a lot of Gary Johnson support in there though (8%) and even Jill Stein (4%) is polling high. We know Johnson is popular here, and we know that there's little love for Trump in the state GOP. If Johnson's vote is squeezed down to 2%, that's 6% to come off. If we divide this up in a ratio of 3 to 1, Trump would get 4.5 and Hillary 1.5, for a theoretical tie. However, it seems likely that Stein's vote would be similarly squeezed and that would naturally gravitate to Hillary. I think she's still narrowly holding CO but its getting closer than she'd like

CNN/ ORC & Quinnipiac University both have polls out for Florida giving Clinton +2 and +1 respectively. The RCP average is still giving Trump the verdict by +0.7% but of the seven polls taken since October 25th, Hillary is ahead in four of them, and perhaps more tellingly, she's ahead with the pollsters who have better reputations. Florida is going to stay nip and tuck all the way to the line. Trump's average lead is down to the three polls that all gave a +4. It does have a look of sampling error about it. This might come down to ground game organisation and even dirty tricks yet. My best guess is that its favouring Clinton slightly now, but it really is on a knife edge. You wouldn't be shocked to see either result. Florida is one of the few states where Trump actually has something of a presence

Quinnipiac University have a poll for North Carolina that has Clinton +3. That's pretty much unchanged from where she's been throughout the month. The state is deadlocked according to RCP although they're calling its status Trump which I think this wrong. I'd be much more suspicious about the robo automated poll conducted by WRAL that gave Trump +7. This looks like the outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see Clinton leading by about +1.75 in reality. I think this one could swing back to Hillary in the next 36 hours

So as of tonight, I think RCP's current projected scoreboard of Clinton 273 - Trump 265 is over-stating Trump. My own hunch is that Clinton 317 - Trump 221 is nearer the truth (at this stage)
 
I see all the right wing nutjobs over here are predicting massive revelations next couple of days with Clinton and the fbi,if I knew that wasn't going to happen and i'd try and find some value prices on her winning easier than predicted,i simply don't believe that his vote will increase simply on no eveidence of any wronmg doing would make no sense.Why any normal people apart from your typical right wing scum would want trump to win is beyond me,even most conservatives and generally most voters in this country find trump abhorrent.
 
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2/1 Trump biggest 7/4 with hills and like the Brexit bets over 90% of them for trump...
 
If we take the RCP averages for the four way race at the moment, we have the following

Clinton 45.3 (higher than her trending line, but lower than her high water mark of 46.2 of October 18th)
Trump 43.4 (this is his high water mark)
Johnson 4.6 (lower than the 9.2 of mid Sept and been trending down since Sept 24th)
Stein 2.1 (lower than her high water mark of 4.8 from July, but otherwise flat lining throughout October)

This leaves 4.6 undecideds

Trump has said so many disqualifying things by now, it's difficult to think that if you still can't decide about him, then you must be quite positively disposed. People are of course saying that during the primaries he tended not to win the undecideds in the final week. That's true, but then again the voter was given alternative Republican choices. They don't have that in a general election (albeit you might argue that the Libertarians perform that role).

If we make the not unreasonable assumption that the Libertarians will ultimately poll at the levels they traditional do, say 2.5%, then on a ratio of 3 to 1, he'd get 1.875 and she'd get 0.625, for a crude projection of 45.3 and she'd be on 46.0. You'd expect any drift in the Green vote to migrate to Hillary, even if they're holding their position. Give Hillary 1% from the Greens then, (even if this is probably a quite hardcore voting bloc of fundamentalists) and a forecast of 45.3 and 47.0. It's possibly worth mentioning that any squeeze on the third parties will be most acute in the swing states. It's obviously much easier to protest vote in a state that's locked up as it comes with no consequence

The 4.6% undecideds hold the key (slightly lower now than the mythical 6% that the commentators talk about). This is guess work now (actually it was before too). But I'm guessing that the undecides will probably break 2 to 1 in favour of orange face, which gives him 3.1% and her 1.53% to add

Hillary Clinton then hits 48.5% and Trump 48.4%

Now this is just a crude national picture, it all depends on how these votes are distributed across the college. Also the base line is questionable given that the RCP averages are increasingly being fluffed by pollsters who are a bit questionable. Basically what seems to have happened is all sorts of market research companies and university departments are seemingly trying their hand at opinion polling egged on perhaps by the publicity that Nate Silver got in 2012 for predicting every state correctly. This has created a lot of noise, and caused the established companies to increasingly withdraw from the public polling field as they no longer get the publicity they used to as their polls get rolled up into an average. It's no coincidence perhaps that a lot of these companies are also polling Trump higher than the more established ones
 
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If you believe the daily mail apparently fbi have avalanche of evidence against the Clintons,its all verty strange why is she running looks certain to be prosecuted game over surely..
 
gigilo said:
If you believe the daily mail apparently fbi have avalanche of evidence against the Clintons,its all verty strange why is she running looks certain to be prosecuted game over surely..
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Well as a general rule I don't believe the Daily Mail, and they've been trying for about 30 years to nail Hillary Clinton and still haven't managed it. However, there are some conspiracy theories that might have a bit more logic to them than others

Hillary Clinton stops Trump. America might have a batshit crazy streak running through the country, but money normally talks there, and the big bucks players don't want Trump threatening to default on the national debt or only pay 80% of it etc (basically wipe out America's finance reputation at a stroke). If there is a something of a shadow state, then their play would be for Hillary to win (she is after all the only thing standing between the white house and Trump now) and then for her to develop a health issue about 12 months into her term and step down to be replaced by President Tim Kaine
 
Warbler said:
Florida is going to stay nip and tuck all the way to the line. Trump's average lead is down to the three polls that all gave a +4. It does have a look of sampling error about it. This might come down to ground game organisation and even dirty tricks yet. My best guess is that its favouring Clinton slightly now, but it really is on a knife edge. You wouldn't be shocked to see either result. Florida is one of the few states where Trump actually has something of a presence
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Florida swings back in Clinton's favour tonight with two new polls. I don't think there's much slack left in Florida to be honest. They've been in the spotlight for months and always knew they would be. They're one of the more settled and we're basically seeing the 2012 result all over again.

I expect North Carolina will deliver a similar reversal of the momentum from earlier in the week tomorrow

As they go into the weekend, the only 'real' gain Trump's likely to have made on a week that started well for him will be Nevada. He was entitled to Arizona and should never have gotten himself behind there. If he loses Florida, then he has a mountain to climb, and his decision to focus the second half of his week in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire looks like a combination of desperate, yet sound strategy. It does make you wonder if the camp knows they're behind in Florida and they simply can't break it

He has to nail both North Carolina and Colorado now and even that won't enough, he'll be 24 short. Even Pennsylvania alone won't work unless he can combine it with New Hampshire, and Maine's second district (albeit he'd probably win with PA and NH as it goes to the house in the event of a tie)

He couldn't win the Republican primary in Wisconsin. OK, it's not unusual to win a state in the general election that you failed to win in the primary when your party holds that state (e.g. Texas), but Trump is trying to win a solid Democrat state from a position of a beaten second amongst his own voters (he is leading in Iowa, which is Democrat, and he failed to win the caucus there of course). Can't see it myself, and even then, he needs to take Michigan alongside it

If either side has an ace up their sleeve, they need to play it on Friday you feel to ensure its the dominant feature of the weekend news cycle
 
Democrats evens to win florida a lot of the states you've mentioned he needs to win he's way odds against,trying to find some value in here but everything suggests its desperately close unless the polls are totally wrong and either one has a massive lead which wouldn't surprise me..if only I knew which
 
I think there's enough noise in Colorado for that one to take a turn yet. My own suspicion is it could end up a whole lot closer than is widely imagined, largely because both of the third parties currently account for 12% of the vote (that should drop to about 3%) and there isn't a great deal of polling data for it. I reckon Hillary holds an edge there, but nothing like the lock that commentators reckon

The demographics of Wisconsin (white, non college educated) really suit Trump, but his particular brand of brash New Yorker really doesn't play out well with duck shooters!

There is a poll out somewhere that gives Hillary a shot at Alaska, you'd want a price though!

The only way you could get a good price on anything I suspect is to bet speculatively for an 'event', which isn't normally anyway of carrying on

There's a lot of rogue polls flying around I reckon (most seem to be Trump friendly, it's the traditional pollsters who aren't).

The stock market has proven that it reacts to the RCP averages more than it does Wang or Silver. My own suspicion is that the academics are ahead of the media. There ought to be trading opportunies on spreads when you find Nate Silver's 538 predictions, or Sam Wang's Princeton monitor is out of kilter with Real Clear Politics (as it was 24 hours ago when they were modelling Trump 40 votes lower than RCP)

It might actually be a case of trying to get inside the American pysche however. Will they pull the trigger? It's normally the case in elections that you puff your chest out and act the 'big I am' when it comes to expressing an opinion through a 'no consequences to my actions' opinion poll, but then bottle out when you have go through with it. We've just seen an example of it this week in Iceland when the Pirate party only got 10 of the 66 seats despite leading the polls. In this regard Brexit was unusual. Might Hillary win Georgia for instance? I'd say not, but if they can get the black vote out in Atlanta its not a forlorn hope given that the state GOP is another one that isn't necessarily co-operating with Trump
 
From all the speculation I've seen it seems trumps expected to win,i get the feeling that one of these is going to win easy with the email thing totally ignired or everyone being on board with trump at the last minute so could be convincing win either way,anyway off to bed as not been well this week will sleep on it and see if I can find some value tomorrow..
 
To think Hillary Clinton could become POTUS would make a sane person cringe.

It's not like there's any doubt about her being a criminal and a liar.

Hillary lied right to the American people's faces and to top it off Obama turns round and said he did not know she was using a private server.

The fact is he had to set his phone to accept 13 different servers that Clinton used.

So what the lies were no big deal seems to be the way American's think.

The reason for Benghazi was simple. Libya was there pride and joy when Chris Steven Sean Smith Glen Docherty and Tyrone Woods lost their lives.
The last thing they needed with an election coming up was a terrorist attack so they lied their faces off......Just one of these thing say the Democrats

Then she/her lawyers deletes 33k emails after receiving a subpoena. Blatantly obvious she was hiding something.

Now she is being investigated by the FBI again dues to 650,000 emails kept by either Huma or Anthony Weiner many of which are GOV related.

Removing or copying such information is a jailable offence.

The minute Jim Comey asked for a warrant it was obvious they had found something incrimination and so serious he had no choice but make it public.

As Joe Scarborough said "Anyone who thinks the FBI had not already read many of these emails and found something incrimination should come for a ride on my multicoloured Unicorn and I will take you to Atlantis"

It would be total madness to elect Hillary but the problem is most voters have no idea this is going on because they have no interest in politics but they do vote.

Trump had hour upon of bad publicity plus he made front page news so a lot more people find that gives them a buzz and like sheep they turn against him.

Trump needs a near another boost to win, something like Jim Comey to say he will be indicting or wikileaks dumping a email containing something really damning that cant be contested.

Don't hold your breath.........Hope he wins but can't see it
 
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