US Presidential election 2016

[Warbler]

Well if they have got a magic bullet, they need to fire this evening you feel, or possibly on Sunday afternoon

There is a possible route opening up though involving New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Maine's second district. New Hampshire was always felt to be the most racist state in the north east and one most likely to swing to Trump. Remember Pat Buchannan used to do well there against GHB, and the imbecile son even won it in 2000. The last five polls in the RCP average conducted since Oct 28th (email day) are now showing Trump with a 1.6pt lead on average. He's ahead in three and tied in the other two. OK, one of these is by the American Research Group and it would make sense to treat their's with caution. Anyone who followed the primaries will know just how wildly off the mark ARG could be, but even then he appears to have edged ahead. He's also got that vote back in Maine, which could become important to getting 269 on a Floridaless route, and throwing the decision to the house

I noted before that New Hampshire and Pennsylvania needed to be viewed in tandem. If Trump can take both, he can win without Florida, but will still need Colorado to drive the final piece into jigsaw. That would give him 270 votes. The three most recent polls out of PA have Clinton +2, +1 and a tie. Trump's only led in one poll throughout the duration (back in June) but he's closing in on her

The route with out Florida is

Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire (all which he currently leads on the RCP average)
plus Pennsylvania and Colorado

He's got something to work with still, and if he turns Florida round on the current map, he actually hits 270. I just sense Florida is quite mature though in its thinking and people give the impression they've decided, (unless Rick Scott can pull a Jeb Bush stunt and throw all the ballot boxes off the Keys)

I should say incidentally, that there's a transportation strike scheduled for Tuesday in Philly!!! What price Clinton gets that resolved in the next 48 hrs with Pennsylvania likely to swing on getting out the Philly vote

 

[Warbler]

From all the speculation I've seen it seems trumps expected to win,i get the feeling that one of these is going to win easy with the email thing totally ignired or everyone being on board with trump at the last minute so could be convincing win either way,anyway off to bed as not been well this week will sleep on it and see if I can find some value tomorrow..

I don't expect we'll get rich but think some of the following might have a semblance of value to them

Trump to win Nevada @11/4 He's got a 2pt RCP poll average lead including a 6pt lead with CNN. Don't see how Hillary is four on for this
Clinton to win North Carolina @evens. Trump is a fraction odds on but his poll lead looks to be down to single dubious automated poll
Trump to win Colorado at 7/2, I think Hillary will win incidentally, but reckon this is a lot closer than people realise and there's still a lot of third party noise in the polling
Trump to win New Hampshire at 13/8. He holds a narrow lead now, and is finishing off there. You might argue the price is right though, and my instinct is that she'll win there in the end
Trump to win Pennsylvania at 9/1. He's never been ahead there, but he's much closer on the three most recent polls (1pt) than 9/1. I don't think he'll win, but I think 9/1 is big given that there are plenty of shorter prices for states where he's got to bridge a bigger deficit
Actually, if Trump did pull these of, he'd win anyway. It's another way of placing a bet on Trump winning at a bigger price than a straight result as he'd likely need places such as Colorado or Pennsylvania to do it


The Florida prices look right 11/10 Trump 5/6 Clinton
Clinton's 4/1 to win Alaska so the markets latched onto the poll in question. I'd want 10/1

 

[gigilo]

No new fbi revelations if it stays that way up till tomorrow night i'm expecting a significant drift on trump maybe as big as 9/2,still a possibility Clinton could win easily have bet accordingly might have some savers on those trump states you've mentioned which could be even bigger if he drifts again tomorrow..

 

[Warbler]

I'd advise caution on Nevada now based on early voting projections. Pollsters try and build their sample based on expected turnout. It seems that they've under estimated the turnout of the Hispanic vote in Nevada where about half the votes have been cast. Whereas I believe there will be some 'legal' Mexicans who might be tempted to vote Trump in order to keep the 'illegal' ones out, I can accept that the Hispanic vote is still breaking predominantly for Hillary. To some extent though, this can be off-set by the number of blacks (Democrats typically poll 90% amongst them) who aren't turning out, and this might hurt in Florida (Miami), Michigan, and Pennsylvania

I suspect it's this which has Nate Silver putting Nevada in her column and Florida in his (narrowly) last time I checked the 538 forecasts

I'm pretty certain there is no new FBI revelations to come. If you trace the reports upstream they seem to eminate to Bret Baier (Fox News) talking about 'people close to the investigation'. Then the right wing press leap all over it as evidence. It's heresay, and at worst could be a deliberate attempt by a rogue FBI officer to plant a story with a sympathetic news organisation (or Baier might be making it up - but I'd have thought he's more likely been put away and twisted a nod and a wink into something much bigger). The fact that they've been reduced to speak in tongues might even be evidence of the fact there's nothing to come. Basically innuendo is the best shot they have now

I think Pennsylvania might be worth a rattle at 9/1 though. It's a bigger price than a lot of states where she holds a smaller lead, and she's suddenly spending alot of time there, as she is scheduled to do in Michigan too

 

[gigilo]

No new fbi revelations if it stays that way up till tomorrow night i'm expecting a significant drift on trump maybe as big as 9/2,still a possibility Clinton could win easily have bet accordingly might have some savers on those trump states you've mentioned which could be even bigger if he drifts again tomorrow..

Great when a plan comes together,it's as though they read my post fbi reveal no new foundings what a touch..will have a saver on some of those states as they will be massive prices couldn't have chose a better time to bet...

 

[Warbler]

The 650,000 email thing never made sense. Hillary Clinton served for something like 1474 days as SoS. She'd have to be sending about 450 emails a day. She simply wouldn't get time what with all the other demands made of her. I wouldn't be shocked if the whole thing turns out to be an auto redirect of non-essential adminsitrative communications to Uber Anadin yet, and that she's fielded them on Clinton's behalf. Considering this was supposed to be going to take months to comb through, the FBI have been able to clear it up remarkably quickly. I'm starting to think there's a slightly embarrasing explanation behind the whole thing and that the FBI have cocked it up

 

[gigilo]

Couldn't find anything and then realizing everything they wre looking at was unrelated to Clinton,probably saved themselves the embsrassment to get it out quick enpoufgh to maybe avoid a flsse result although has probably cost her miliion/s of votes already..Tomorrows bettings going to be very interesting,have you any idea we start seeing results obver here warbler will they be afternoon our time..

 

[Warbler]

Haven't looked at the timings, but I've got it in my mind they can't start calling east coast states until the polls have closed on the west coast. I seem to think the networks might know though, but the information is embargoed (in theory) but I'm sure there'll be plenty of proxy signs

Nate Silver's given a kind of betting based interview incidentally

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...ce_of_winning_dont_pass_commonsense_test.html

 

[Tanlic]

Now I am confused.... not about them getting through 650,000 emails in about 680,000 seconds and quick sort could have eliminated 600,000 of them in hours.

What I don't get is Hillary's maid having access to top class info.........If that is the case Comey may not be finished because that goes beyond being careless.

What gets me is why would Comey commit political suicide. Surely if he all but cost Hillary the Presidency his job is in jeopardy?

Could it be Comey has folded his hand because all he had was less than 2 pair but has dealt himself a full House and he wants to concentrate playing that hand

In other words he has enough evidence with more to come to get her on pay for play

Maybe he's just a woose bought and paid for, time will tell

Of course if Trump were to win her ass is grass

 

[EC1]

well its looking like a few years of great entertainment will be squashed as it looks like Clinton will win..what a shame for entertainment..and at the end of the day..thats what we all really want from poltics..anyone who thinks it matters at grass roots level who win what..is seriously having themselves on..you are screwed no matter who wins...folk in the 80% who don't own the 20% of wealth will be shagged up arse on a weekly basis...either side of the atlantic

the big plus for Trump if he loses..is he will still be alive..and its pretty certain if he won..his lifespan would be 6 months or less.

the only hope for entertainment now is if somehow Corbyn can be PM..fookin hell..that would be absolute heaven for me..i can't even explain the entertainment i see with that outcome

as it is..we left with Thereas May..ffs..i've got weeds in the garden with more charisma..and on top of that..she will screw the 80% good style.

whilst the general public allow the media to bend their minds into attacking their own class level..those in the top 20% .will get away with living the life whilst expoliting every loophole...the public need to wake up and see who the real shysters are..its not your next door neighbour..he's fooked same as you..look further a field..and stop buying sh1t right wing rags that aren't fit to wipe your arse on...and exist only to turn the poorer end of society against themselves..it works as well...check out twatter each time a family is shown in a rag getting 25k a year benefits...people need to wise up to it instead of falling hook line and sinker for it..is that too much to ask i wonder?....whilst Mr 20% wealth laughs his arse off at the paupers.

if folk fear getting liquidiised then Trump is the best pick of the two for that not happening..and it seems that many folk still fear nuclear war..thought that was over but Putin appears to have put it back on the agenda in some people's minds....personally a bigger fear than that is someone having to wipe my arse everyday as i no longer have the ability ,,,,that scares me more..oh and not knowing who I am or wtf day it is..or where the hell i am......different folk..different fears i suppose..the nuke threat to anyone over 60 is way down the real fear scale imo..irrelevant to me personally..its over pretty quick..in fact as a way of dying..in the top third..suffering wise.

i was around in 1962..at school then...and you could smell the fear for a couple of weeks amongst adults..everyone thought that was it..the end of the world....well it weren't..but now we have even worse things to fear..5 - 10 years without your marbles whilst your brain slowly disintegrates for one..thats worse than a 4 minure warning....for others its a life with no home of their own..hoping Mum or Dad can help them..or die so they can have whatever is left of their estate to get them a property..what a fookin world we in now

and yet..you still get folk..telling us how well off we all are..really?..30 odd year olds still living with parents because the property ladder has been pulled away from their grasp

and if you are in your 30s now.....don't forget to put away a grand a month so you aren't living in a cardboard box from the age of 65 onwards..never had it so good eh?

 

[Tanlic]

I always just shake my head in disbelief when they talk about Trump starting a nuclear war. The Clinton campaign have been accusing them of hacking when the truth is no one really knows bar assange who's behind it.....Russia China North Korea..while Putin may not be Trumps best pal he certainly hates Clinton and that does not stand in good stead in the fight against ISIS.

Anyway Trump looks jaded to hell over the last few days which is hardly surprising. He must be sick of the sound of his own voice........I actually wonder how he fills these Rallys up considering they are all very much the same...

If it were up to social media it would be a no brainier.

Take Youtube. I am on there every day following the news. Trump topped 1 million views at his last 10 rallies Clinton barely 340,000 and half of those came in a 2 day period when JZ played in that awful would be a concert.

I honestly don't get it. Huge Rallies huge following on the Social Media hammering her at every turn but she leads? Not just in one or 2 polls but in virtually all polls?

It really does go to show the power of the media..............Latest one WOLF BLITZER caught asking the DNC to give him some questions to ask Trump...........The man should be gone he's a disgrace to his profession as is Donna Brazile..........but CNN will do nothing to the old biased *******.

If Trump were to win I doubt if he'd be dropping dead any time soon but if Hillary attempted to work half as hard as he does she'd be gone in a month......Please God.


How the most hated two faced liar on the planet can become POTUS is beyond me. Can only hope the polls are wrong and Trump dows drain the swamp

 

[gigilo]

Monstrous speech by Obama he really is in a different league as an orator,thaty speech alone will win a few million votes...

 

[gigilo]

Also got some trebles,accas etc on trump if he were to win hit the jackpot as savers..

 

[Warbler]

I see the RCP average has Trump on 266 now! And New Hampshire is only in her column because of one outlying poll conducted by the university that gives her +11. I doubt that's right. It's been a feature of late polling that universities trying to grab themselves a bit of national profile seem to have taken to lobbing polls about and corrupting the average. If you remove this one, and also take out the ARG poll that has Trump on +5 (their track record is poor), Trump has a +0.4 lead about a state that has a history for concealed racist voting. I wouldn't be shocked to see him win NH now

Set aside however is the general consensus that he's lost Nevada to a surge in hispanic votes. RCP still have this as a red state in their average

RCP have also moved Trump into the lead in Florida. This is seemingly based on a Trafalgar poll of +4 which again I'd be wary of. The vibes from Florida are mixed. The general observation that the black vote is down is known to hurt Clinton. Also Trump is much nearer to Clinton on early voting than Romney was to Obama. Florida swung on 57,000 in 2012, but had an advantage of something like 110,000 going into election day. This is supposed to be 15,000 today. If Trump repeats Romney's day of the vote performance, he wins Florida (in theory) yet my suspicion is that she squeaks in by about 1-2%

It's been noticeable too just how much she's been throwing at Pennsylvania in the last 48 hours (well Philadelphia anyway). If she can get the black vote out in Philly, she wins, if she can't, then she's got a problem. Basically Philadelphia pretty well determines who wins Pennsylvania. I think Trump is going to be closer than a lot of people imagined, but not quite by enough, (same story in Colorado, albeit I wouldn't be shocked to see this one go Trump)

Colorado is interesting actually as it's one of the few states where the third party vote has held up at about 9% and also seems to indicate there's another 8% undecided. There's enough noise there. The most accurate poll of late might be the Gravis one which has them tied and also has the lowest margin of error. The other polls look like they have a house bias in them.

I'm guessing that she's marginally ahead in North Carolina too as I'm inclined to disregard the +7 poll for Trump, and Trafalgar's +5 poll for being a mixture of flawed methods and partisan house bias

My final prediction then is:

Clinton = 316
Trump = 222

Ultimately Trump's had plenty of opportunties, but a combination of deranged messaging, and appallingly bad organisation will probably cost him. Hillary Clinton has built an organisation, Trump built a cult. On the day however, that organisation is going to swing into action. Trump will discover I suspect that yard posters, car stickers, and t-shirts can't vote. He put a lot of money into merchandise and anything that can carry his name. She put a lot more into organisation. If he'd been organised he could have taken North Carolina, and quite possibly Florida, which would turn the whole thing into a crap shoot on Colorado or Pennsylvania

 

[sunybay]

Monstrous speech by Obama he really is in a different league as an orator,thaty speech alone will win a few million votes...

Nobel prize and all the speeches You want
worst president since Carter
great news he is going home

 

[EC1]

even at the last speech he is gold..he said something like

I need you to come out and vote for me tomorrow..even if you have just come back from the doctors with "bad news" and have just been told you have only 6 months to live..come and vote for me


i'm going to miss this stuff..the guy is comedy gold hall of fame level each time he speaks

 

[EC1]

is it possible that like with out election where people don't want to admit before they vote that they will vote Tory..that in the US people may be doing the same re Trump.."ooh no he is a loony"..then go and vote for him

 

[gigilo]

It's obviously desperately close looking by the turnout,i've got some right juicy prices on some of these trebles and accas as savers and theyu're going to get slashed within the hour looking at the outright betting gives a nice bit of interest for later viewing..

 

[gigilo]

is it possible that like with out election where people don't want to admit before they vote that they will vote Tory..that in the US people may be doing the same re Trump.."ooh no he is a loony"..then go and vote for him[/QUOTE

Yes the looneys are voting for the looney,just like over here the high turnout tells you that as its done over here..

 

[EC1]

is it possible that like with out election where people don't want to admit before they vote that they will vote Tory..that in the US people may be doing the same re Trump.."ooh no he is a loony"..then go and vote for him[/QUOTE

Yes the looneys are voting for the looney,just like over here the high turnout tells you that as its done over here..

for the sake of future comedy..please let the Donald win

 

[Warbler]

Turnout is an interesting proxy. Traditionally high turnout favours Democrats, but then you might question the extent to which Trump actually represents Republicans? and whether the traditional bi partisan relationship with turnout actually applies?

Low Turnout - favours Republicans
High Turnout - favours Democrats
Very High Turnout - favours something changed from the norm, a cult?

It's always held that the higher information and more dedicated voters tend to have greater representation amongst Republicans, hence why they win the mid terms with greater regularity. High turnout might also be indicative of ground game organisation though (something no one has accused Trump of possessing). I'm slightly haunted however by the spectre of 'very' high turnout. These would be people who don't normally bother, and who aren't really that interested (low information voters) but for whom something has happened to stimulate them. At face value that something has to be Trump, but are they supporters, or are they anti-Trumpers trying to stop him? Your instinct would make you think the former, but then they could be Latino's who'd never previously bothered much

As I've said before though, Trump is trying to navigate this narrow flight path that might allow him to lose the popular vote yet win the college (something Nate Silver reckons is 10%). He needs to pick up abandoned voters in areas of decline. These are the sorts of apathetic Brexit type voters who might conclude that the current system hasn't worked for them, so they might as well try something else, and if that doesn't work either, then so what, they're no better off, nor or they any worse. The probability is that these voters could respond to reactionary messaging, and if you had to guess as to where you might find them, then it would be in the upper mid west. In order to reach them though, Trump needs to risk alienating other sections of his vote.

He doesn't mind losing states with significant Hispnaic votes by even further (California or New Mexico)
He doesn't mind winning some of his own states with smaller majorities (Texas or Arizona)
So long as the votes he's lost here can be picked up in the mid west
He already holds Indiana, and looks like adding Ohio and Iowa to the list.
Only the black vote in Philadelphia is preventing him winning Pennsylvania
New Hampshire has a tradition of latent racism and independence

He isn't that far away

The fly in this ointment is Florida, albeit the Latino vote there might behave differently, but its a very narrow gap he's trying to fit everything through without somehting failing to squeeze in

I was surprised how long he stayed competitive in Nevada for. Winning a Democrat state with a significant Hispnaic population wasn't something I thought he could possibly pull off and had dismissed it out of hand months ago until I noticed that this was exactly what he was doing! I certainly wouldn't give up on Colorado just yet either. There's a lot of noise in the centennial state, and if with all the evidence available to them, an undecided or third party voter still hasn't eliminated Trump from their thinking, you're inclined to ask what else more do they need?

He'd be entitled to reckon he's in play in North Carolina too on the Romeny map.

Instinctively I think he's got a chance, yet all the data I'm looking at suggests its over

 

[EC1]

when its something as unique as Donald though..i don't think past results or data will tell you anything..we haven't seen anything like him before..which says any past data may undersetimate him..as its based on ordinary candidates

 

[brendanr]

when its something as unique as Donald though..i don't think past results or data will tell you anything..we haven't seen anything like him before..which says any past data may undersetimate him..as its based on ordinary candidates

Don't agree with this. Past results are one thing data is another. The data encapsulates the fact that Trump is one of the candidates. Let's not forget that a disgusting indecent miscreant like Trump is going to drive the other side to vote. Latino votes in Florida have already crashed thru the overall participation numbers of past elections in early voting alone. These people are not voting for Trump. I think we'll see similar trends in States with a decent hispanic population. Some day Texas will go blue and all the angry white men won't be able to stop it There is a demographic earth shift in front of our eyes and it will forever change how US elections are played out. If the Republican party goes the way of Trump then they are finished as a viable party.

 

[brendanr]

Nobel prize and all the speeches You want
worst president since Carter
great news he is going home

How do come to that conclusion?

One thing is for sure if he were running for a 3rd term he would have crushed Trump the way Reagan crushed Mondale.

 

[EC1]

How do come to that conclusion?

One thing is for sure if he were running for a 3rd term he would have crushed Trump the way Reagan crushed Mondale.

yes he would have crushed Trump..but what does that say about Clinton?..we shouldn't even think she can be beaten in reality

Trump is an arse...which is the beauty of it..the US with a president like him..is basically what they deserve

in reality it is unlikely..but i can dream