Victor Chandler Chase 2012

hezz said:
I'm not as disappointed with Finians Rainbow as I was post race. I think the horse took Geraghty to the front earlier than he'd have liked. I thought his ride was poor enough subsequent to that, peeking under his left arm to ensure he had Al Ferof covered, then when eventually peeking under his right arm he seen Somersby was still on the premises, got the hurry up on Finians Rainbow. Little late for me.
Interesting that I had Somersby as the biggest danger pre-race, as did many, but in Geraghty’s interviews beforehand he gives Somersby very little mention in fact none in one particular interview I watched.
I think he may have under estimated him personally.

Would Somersby still have pegged him if Geraghty had sent him home earlier? Quite possibly. I'm not taking anything away from Somersby who was a worthy winner. But for Geraghty to come out and say afterwards, "maybe the horse needs further" doesn't sit well with me. This isn't NEWS, considering the horses entry for the gold cup, so why not make more use of the horse after he had taken himself to the front.

I think a faster pace in the Champion Chase will suit Finians much better. While I wouldn’t be confident he can beat Sizing Europe or Big Zeb, I don’t think it would be the biggest shock in the world if he were to.
I won’t be tearing up my ante post bets just yet.

Someone suggested on here that Geraghty may be commenting on the horse with an agenda to dispel a decision between riding BZ or FR. I have a bad feeling this may be the case.
I just hope Mr. Buckley has the sense to stick to the plan and go for the Queen Mother.
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Hezz in pocket talk shocker!!:D
Reminded me so much of the Arkle - why didn't he go and put the race to bed?
 
Personally I think Finians is a suspect stayer. 2 miles on a flat track is what he needs but what do I know.
 
I think it strange that they are talking about him needing further when he has looked awfully weak at the finish in both the Arkle and the Victor Chandler. He doesn't seem to lack finishing pace because he always travels very well into his races, but when push comes to shove he doesn't seem to find very much at all.

The only time he has raced and been strong at the finish was at Kempton which is a sharp tight track and in a slowly run race.
 
He just falls short of being top class or near it. Wasn't Barry asked a while back who'd win in a race between him and Sprinter Sacre and he replied how many stones would the latter have to give?
 
Euronymous said:
He just falls short of being top class or near it. Wasn't Barry asked a while back who'd win in a race between him and Sprinter Sacre and he replied how many stones would the latter have to give?
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This is exactly why I cannot understand why most seem to be suggesting that this was a fantastic Arkle trial for Al Ferof. I think the form is no better than he has already shown, and the way he ran showed that he lacks a gear for championship races at 2m.
 
With regards Sprinter Sacre, perhaps some people prefer to judge him on what he's done on the track, rather than what his jockey says he's done on the gallops.
 
davidjohnson said:
With regards Sprinter Sacre, perhaps some people prefer to judge him on what he's done on the track.
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Demolishing Peddlers Cross, hitting the take off board and still clearing a fence like it wasn't there and generally looking like the sexiest beast to jump a fence since Denman is enough for me.
 
Sprinter Sacre posted a 152P in his first run and in the second I have him in a conservative 169P, I think he can win the QM this year and expect him to be a Azertyuiop or Moscow Flyer level next season, champion in the making for me.
 
Thats confirmed for me that it will be between sprinter sacre and peddlers,with the former coming out on top.dont know what it is but I get the same feeling as when watching al Ferof as I get with grand crus.al Ferof is a plodder for me.
 
Fair enough Suny, the Kempton form could be tip top, but it's reliant on Peddlers Cross being at something like his best, and I'm not sure he was. This is the problem with assessing form of lightly-raced novice chasers in small-field events, the margin for error is so high.
 
When on song Sizing Europe is one of the best 2 mile chasers I have ever seen.

His demolition job of Hardy Eustace over hurdle without coming out of cruise control was nothing short of amazing.

After he was injured in the Champion Hurdle, but for which would surely have won, he was all wrong for about a year before turning his hand to fencing.

He won all his 4 races prior to the Arkle including beating Harchibald by 16 lengths, winning a Grooup 1 and a Group 2. His OR going into the Arkle was 157 coming out it was 160.

If someone wants me to believe that this one paced grey who struggled to beat a second rater in For No Stop and plodded round 5 lengths behind the very horse Sizing Europe beat in his Arkle is 3bs superior to what Sizing Europe was at this stage of his career.....oh Please!!!! Sizing Europe 157 Al Ferof 160? Get a grip
 
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Zenyatta said:
This is exactly why I cannot understand why most seem to be suggesting that this was a fantastic Arkle trial for Al Ferof. I think the form is no better than he has already shown, and the way he ran showed that he lacks a gear for championship races at 2m.
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While I'm not over the moon about Al Ferof it seems that the first three on Saturday have all achieved personal best rating (Somersby matching and the other two exceeding).

Consequently and after chatting with Maurice (a one time regular contributor here and expert ratings complier) I'm inclined to take on board much of what David J has argued in favour of Al Ferof.

The caveat to this is that I think it will take something very special to win the Arkle this year. We don't have to take the jockey's word for it, some of us can see that Sprinter Sacre is a very gifted animal. To me he appears a pure natural, a speed chaser without flaws. The only other novice I can see with the same sort of potential is possibly Grands Crus. These novices are shaping as well as some of the best novices I've seen since the mid-1960s. I'd be surprised if anything emerges to match them in their progress in novice company this season.
 
Tanlic said:
When on song Sizing Europe is one of the best 2 mile chasers I have ever seen.

His demolition job of Hardy Eustace over hurdle without coming out of cruise control was nothing short of amazing.

After he was injured in the Champion Hurdle, but for which would surely have won, he was all wrong for about a year before turning his hand to fencing.

He won all his 4 races prior to the Arkle including beating Harchibald by 16 lengths, winning a Grooup 1 and a Group 2. His OR going into the Arkle was 157 coming out it was 160.

If someone wants me to believe that this one paced grey who struggled to beat a second rater in For No Stop and plodded round 5 lengths behind the very horse Sizing Europe beat in his Arkle is 3bs superior to what Sizing Europe was at this stage of his career.....oh Please!!!! Sizing Europe 157 Al Ferof 160? Get a grip
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It doesnt matter what he did as a hurdler for his rating as a novice chaser

I had Sizing 156 prior to the Arkle and 164 in the Arkle day,
Al ferof has already posted a similar figure in last saturdays run and are horses of similar ability.

Al Ferof has plenty of time to improve and looks a very good prospect.
 
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SteveM said:
While I'm not over the moon about Al Ferof it seems that the first three on Saturday have all achieved personal best rating (Somersby matching and the other two exceeding).
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This is exactly what I mean. I understand 100% that it is very easy to rate the race much higher than I have in my mind but I'm uncomfortable with doing so.

I think that Master Minded has been overrated for 2 seasons, and therefore Somersby has been overrated on the back of running him close. I have Somersby down as a 160 horse, regardless of trip, which means that Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof ran to their best marks over fences but nothing more.

I suppose your view of the form depends on how you rate Somersby, and therefore how you rate Master Minded.
 
Zenyatta said:
This is exactly what I mean. I understand 100% that it is very easy to rate the race much higher than I have in my mind but I'm uncomfortable with doing so.

I think that Master Minded has been overrated for 2 seasons, and therefore Somersby has been overrated on the back of running him close. I have Somersby down as a 160 horse, regardless of trip, which means that Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof ran to their best marks over fences but nothing more.

I suppose your view of the form depends on how you rate Somersby, and therefore how you rate Master Minded.
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It looked a decent enough standard to me. I think the front three all ran up to (and it appears beyond) their best to date. This is a strong sign that the race is one to take pointers from.

But when it boils down to it Al Ferof doesn't quite do it for me either. As an Arkle candidate he is fully entitled to line up, but I think I'd be disappointed if he managed to win.
 
There aren't many historical precedents, but it's interesting to note that Sybillin, the last novice to win the Victor Chandler (when it was a limited handicap) gained a TF rating of 156p when victorious by 10 lengths from Deep Sensation in 1993. He won again in a Grade 2 at Nottingham the following month, but was a well-beaten third in the Arkle despite going off at 4/5f.

It's also intriguing that the last novice to tackle the Victor Chandler before Al Ferof was the same connections' Hoo La Baloo.
 
trackside528 said:
I thought Al Ferof looked a horse crying out for a stiffer test on Saturday.
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He doesn't really look sharp enough for an Arkle to me either. Perhaps he would do better in the Jewson. 7 or 8/1 in that would look better value than his odds for the Arkle.
 
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