Victor Chandler Chase 2012

Think there's a wee bit of harshness in critiquing AL FEROF's effort at this point - he was a Novice Chaser until last month, and now comes a clean-jumping 3rd in his first full chase, a Group 1. 11/12 wins and placings under Rules - that's some ratio. I don't think he can beat SPRINTER SACRE - if SS stands up, nothing will - but I'm with Luke. He's a terrific e/w and I expect to see another placing on his record book.
 
davidjohnson said:
Al Ferof in finishing third has posted a solid figure around 160. How many Arkle's would that win in the last 20 years? The vast majority of them I would suggest. It was a really good run yesterday, and whilst it showed there's something of a cap on his ability at the trip, the cap is sufficiently high to suggest he goes there with strong claims for the Arkle. I'd already backed him at 7/1, and had to top up at Coral's 8's. Sprinter Sacre may be the second coming, but he's priced as if he's already done it, well Al Ferof did, yesterday.
Click to expand...

Presumably you mean a Timeform figure of 160, in which case I wouldn't have thought it high enough. In TF terms surely they need to be closer to 170 than 160? While he may be entitled to line up in the Arkle I don't see him as having a compelling chance.
 
Last edited:
Wouldn't you say he has a compelling chance to place, though, Stevie Wonderboy? Or will he be too short for that to be worthwhile? As a matter of interest, at what point is a horse of no interest e/w? (Betting learning curve!)
 
SteveM said:
Presumably you mean a Timeform figure of 160, in which case I wouldn't have thought it high enough. In TF terms surely they need to be closer to 170 than 160? While he may be entitled to line up in the Arkle I don't see him as having a compelling chance.
Click to expand...

In terms of figures achieved on the day. 160 would have won 17 of the last 18 Arkles outright, and dead-heated with Tidal Bay. This might be a vintage year for novice chasers, but if Al Ferof runs to 160 in the Arkle, he will not be out of the first three.
 
I should be very surprised if Al Ferof is out of the first three in the Arkle - it is often a brutal test and he will be getting up the hill when others cry enough just like last year . The Christmas form is plainly unreliable ( PC was wrong ) and terrific as Sprinter Sacre looked he also looked as if he was going to win the Supreme in a canter off the turn and fell in a hole.

Al Ferof is the value bet of the three.
 
Super performance from Somersby yesterday , his jumping was very slick . Yet another tribute to the awesome Kauto Star .
 
I think Somersby has always been a creature in the mid 160s.

So therefore Al Ferof has put in a hot performance for a novice.

Given that Sprinter Sacre looks the business, it may not be enough. But I am happy enough with my bet on AF for the Arkle.
 
Euronymous said:
Yeah, I mean he has more chance of winning the Arkle than Big Zeb and Kauto do of winning their races and he's a couple of points longer than those two as well.
Click to expand...

I think Kauto has a much better chance in the Gold Cup than many are giving him credit for. I know Long Run was closing at the finish in the King George but it must be remembered that Ruby was riding a 3m race round Kempton, not a 3m2f race round Cheltenham. Clearly the tactics will need adapting slightly but I see no problem in that. I have backed him at 9/2 and think that is excellent. He should be nearer 3/1 as far as I'm concerned.

Write him off at your peril. He has proven people wrong on more than one occasion.
 
I'm just assuming the other connections actually try and beat the horse unlike say in 2009 where he was basically handed the race on a plate.
 
Euronymous said:
He has a chance, just not a 5/1 one. He's not been beating Noble Prince comfortably enough over two miles for me.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't disagree with that. Forpadydeplasterer was also beaten a lot more convincingly by Somersby et al yesterday. I don't fancy any of them for the Champion Chase so I couldn't fancy Big Zeb. He's looked workmanlike for me this season. Sizing Europe looks banker material at the moment.

I don't think Kauto Star has ever looked like getting beat this season. He looks as good as ever and I think if he can dictate from the front, and I can't yet see anything that will be capable/prepared to take him on, then I would be disappointed if Ruby couldn't set the race up to suit. He knows he can take 5 lengths out of Long Run when he quickens so he just needs to do it at the right time. He doesn't even need to lead because he is tactically versatile. So long as it doesn't turn into a proper slog I think has a big chance.
 
krizon said:
Wouldn't you say he has a compelling chance to place, though, Stevie Wonderboy? Or will he be too short for that to be worthwhile? As a matter of interest, at what point is a horse of no interest e/w? (Betting learning curve!)
Click to expand...

A possible chance of a place, not a compelling one for me.
 
davidjohnson said:
In terms of figures achieved on the day. 160 would have won 17 of the last 18 Arkles outright, and dead-heated with Tidal Bay. This might be a vintage year for novice chasers, but if Al Ferof runs to 160 in the Arkle, he will not be out of the first three.
Click to expand...

Is that a Timeform figure David? 160 doesn't sound high enough to me. Captain Chris got an RPR of something like 168 last year (so presumably his TF rating was higher), but perhaps he was the one of the past 18 you refer to?
 
Yep Tf figs steve. Captain Chris got 159. In truth that could be higher given how the race has worked out. But the point remains valid that Al Ferof has already shown something like Arkle-winning form.
 
davidjohnson said:
Yep Tf figs steve. Captain Chris got 159. In truth that could be higher given how the race has worked out. But the point remains valid that Al Ferof has already shown something like Arkle-winning form.
Click to expand...

Thanks David. Something looks weird in that case... Captain Chris got an RPR of 168 for the Arkle... some 9lb higher than TF. According to Barry TF figures are always (or at least almost always) higher than RPRs, but this is a big difference the other way.:confused:

I haven't had time to dig out the ORs or RPRs of other Arkle winners. Would you reproduce a list of Arkle winning TF ratings if it's not too much trouble?
 
Last edited:
Yes. Will do this evening. Differential between Bha and Timeform ratings spoken of on other thread is only on Flat ratings.
 
Year Horse __________OHR RPR TFR
2011 Captain Chris____ 160 168 159
2010 Sizing Europe____160 166 154+
2009 Forpadydeplast'__156 162 155+
2008 Tidal Bay_______ 166 168 160
2007 My Way de Solz'_ 159 165 157+
2006 Voy Por Ustedes_ 162 162 151+
2005 Contraband_____ 153 158 155
2004 Well Chief_______ 146 157 146+
2003 Azertyuiop______ 161 170 170+
2002 Moscow Flyer____159 167 162+
 
rorydelargy said:
Year Horse __________OHR RPR TFR
2011 Captain Chris____ 160 168 159
2010 Sizing Europe____160 166 154+
2009 Forpadydeplast'__156 162 155+
2008 Tidal Bay_______ 166 168 160
2007 My Way de Solz'_ 159 165 157+
2006 Voy Por Ustedes_ 162 162 151+
2005 Contraband_____ 153 158 155
2004 Well Chief_______ 146 157 146+
2003 Azertyuiop______ 161 170 170+
2002 Moscow Flyer____159 167 162+
Click to expand...

Where does that fit with DJ's
In terms of figures achieved on the day. 160 would have won 17 of the last 18 Arkles outright, and dead-heated with Tidal Bay.
Click to expand...
?
 
DJ was referring to Timeform ratings when he said that. He might have meant 15 out of 18, plus one dead heat?
 
rorydelargy said:
Year Horse __________OHR RPR TFR
2011 Captain Chris____ 160 168 159
2010 Sizing Europe____160 166 154+
2009 Forpadydeplast'__156 162 155+
2008 Tidal Bay_______ 166 168 160
2007 My Way de Solz'_ 159 165 157+
2006 Voy Por Ustedes_ 162 162 151+
2005 Contraband_____ 153 158 155
2004 Well Chief_______ 146 157 146+
2003 Azertyuiop______ 161 170 170+
2002 Moscow Flyer____159 167 162+
Click to expand...

Thanks rory. This is a big help. I can see what David means now. The figures in my head of around 170 were RPRs, but I see 170 is actually the highest, with other good horses in the mid to high 160s.

Al Ferof has been given a personal best RPR of 162 for Ascot, which would see him winning in an average to poor year but not a good year. So perhaps a little to find yet on RPRs at least.
 
I'm not as disappointed with Finians Rainbow as I was post race. I think the horse took Geraghty to the front earlier than he'd have liked. I thought his ride was poor enough subsequent to that, peeking under his left arm to ensure he had Al Ferof covered, then when eventually peeking under his right arm he seen Somersby was still on the premises, got the hurry up on Finians Rainbow. Little late for me.
Interesting that I had Somersby as the biggest danger pre-race, as did many, but in Geraghty’s interviews beforehand he gives Somersby very little mention in fact none in one particular interview I watched.
I think he may have under estimated him personally.

Would Somersby still have pegged him if Geraghty had sent him home earlier? Quite possibly. I'm not taking anything away from Somersby who was a worthy winner. But for Geraghty to come out and say afterwards, "maybe the horse needs further" doesn't sit well with me. This isn't NEWS, considering the horses entry for the gold cup, so why not make more use of the horse after he had taken himself to the front.

I think a faster pace in the Champion Chase will suit Finians much better. While I wouldn’t be confident he can beat Sizing Europe or Big Zeb, I don’t think it would be the biggest shock in the world if he were to.
I won’t be tearing up my ante post bets just yet.

Someone suggested on here that Geraghty may be commenting on the horse with an agenda to dispel a decision between riding BZ or FR. I have a bad feeling this may be the case.
I just hope Mr. Buckley has the sense to stick to the plan and go for the Queen Mother.
 
Back
Top