What are you backing Today? Part 2

barjon said:
Glory and Honour Redcar 5:25

Here is a gelding of six years who has just gained a lowly mark of 59 having run three times last or second last over distances of 7f and 1mile, at least half a mile too short for him (before all that he’s been hurdling and won a couple)

Tomorrow is his handicap debut and wonderboy BDLS treks north for the ride which is over 1m6f. Absolutely no form to commend him on the flat and marginal odds-on at the moment, nonetheless if I see evens I’ll snap it up. If I finish up poorer I suspect I won’t be alone.
Click to expand...

Never saw evens which was just as well. In retrospect writing was probably on the wall by the load of late money for Red Force One. Maybe that was the one in play all along - or perhaps I just imagine plots everywhere :D
 
Yeah good shout Reet. I couldn't back bring myself to back her as I actually liked her a bit for Royal Ascot where I feel she underperformed.

Good to see her back winning though. And you!
 
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6.38 Newbury-Prepense

Each Way @ 5-1 [888 Sport]

She though against a 10-11 hot pot is pick of the newcomers for me
 
5 from my notebook, but 1 NR and 4 drifters overnight so no go unless there’s late money :( . Otherwise Little Mis Dynamo 5:25 Ascot is down 2 in Class having run quite well in her seasonal opener at Chester before being swamped at the end when not put under much pressure - just a pipe opener, I hope . I think the stiff 5 furlongs will suit and taken 8/1 ew to three places.


Blimey! Pipe opener looked wishful thinking, looks like she’s lost it
 
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Saturday:

I took 7s about Oscula for the 2.25 at Ascot earlier in the week, the race has cut up, and she's 13/2! This filly looks a trifle exposed but I liked her run at Sandown when she was beaten by a high class rival. I fear the German filly more than the fav and I do think the selection is better than Jumbly.

Silver Samurai has been a tracker horse for quite a while and whilst he was disappointing in the Wokingham he had no chance from his draw. 12/1 was available earlier in the week but he's tight now at around 5s and I'll be hoping for a drift so I can get a top up on. This is a horse who finishes his races really well over 6f and my one fear is he'll get too far back on a track where that is death.

I've gone on about Star of Orion loads on this thread and others. He was terribly ridden at Royal Ascot (where I suspect he wasn't off) and isolated in the Bunbury Cup. I can see the case for Aratus given his yard and an eye catching run from a bad draw in the Wokingham.

I took 3/1 about Emily Upjohn when news came through that she wouldn't run in Ireland. She has a turn of foot and I think the track will suit her more than it will Westover. Mishriff I'm on at a nice price for the Juddmonte so I'd like to see him run similar to last year. I can't have the German horse or Broome.
 
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Today's summaries (written on Thursday):

Ascot 3.00 - I'm taking a positive view of Northern Express’s most recent form, which puts him top on my figures for this season. The draw maybe isn't great and we might need to wait for the first race to see if the near-side bias persists and even then the smaller field might not tell us much. Nor am I a great fan of Graham Lee, and Connor Beasley, who rides most of the stable's winners, goes to York. So plenty of reason to be cautious about this one but I have to go with my figures when that kind of price is on offer. I’ve taken 25s (boosted to 28s), 5 places with the BOG. There is no standout candidate in the race and half the field are up to winning an average renewal so it’s hugely competitive. The one I like the most, though, is Air To Air. I had Inver Park in mind for this race but Boughey has taken him out (Stewards’ Cup?) and left in Air To Air. He won with the minimum of fuss last time and could be very unexposed. I’ll probably end up backing another couple at the best terms in the morning.

Ascot 4.45 - Saga looks like being quite a short-priced favourite for this, unsurprisingly given the brouhaha over the ride Dettori gave him at Ascot. However, the horse also holds an entry for the Clipper Logistics at York, which is worth twice as much, and I’m not sure a 6lbs penalty would do him any favours. I’d rather take a punt on Bopedro. Only one bookie is pricing the race up so far so I’m holding out for better than the 12/1 on offer there. This is his only immediate entry.

Ascot 5.20 - This is another competitive race with a fair few that can be fancied. Bond Chairman looks the percentage call but I’ll probably also back King Of Stars whose jockey takes over for the first time since his last win back in September.

York 2.40 - I’ve taken 10/1 Aberama Gold who gets in here 12lbs lower than for his best turf form of last season and who has looked to be running into form the last twice. Nomadic Empire looks the main danger.

York 3.15 - I’ve taken 4/1 Dubai Future to overturn the favourite Dubai Honour. He was quite impressive in the Wolferton and the favourite is coming back from four months off with the ground possibly not in his favour.

Edits - I've dutched Dark Shift and Air To Air (approx 5/2-9/4).
 
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Lot to choose from today.

I'm going with Mishriff in KG. Have to concede there’s emotion in the bet (love the horse) so won’t be full bore.
Aratus 3:00 Ascot I’m not usually drawn to big handicaps, but he was arguably undone by the draw in the Royal Hunt Cup and in the Victoria Cup previously. Bit iffy as to whether he sees out a mile and the 7 fur will suit much better, I think.
On known form Lezoo 1:50 Ascot is miles ahead and something will have be pretty good to come and knock her off the perch.
Oh, and there’s a Sir MP special (debut handicap, lower class, higher distance) this evening at Lingfield 5:08 Arcadian Friend. 5/2 atm down from 6/1 overnight.
 
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Yes with you on Aratus, Barj. Stating the obvious here but even if he was unlucky he still needs to really put in a lifetime best to go close today. Good support all week for him in the betting suggests he might have found the necessary since Royal Ascot. Fingers crossed.

No major surprise if Dark Shift went close again and Ropey Guest surely has good place credentials.
 
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