What are you backing Today? Part 2

barjon said:
Tarjeeh 1:00 Newbury tomorrow was given a very gentle introduction and ran on strongly in the last couple of furlongs without being put under any pressure. Finished fourth of nine and now over 7 furlongs which should suit. For some reason B365 still have the price at 8/1 with no-one else better than sixes. Hope they don’t know something I don’t. Looks a warm race so ew.
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Glad to say they didn’t - started 7/2 so added some on the way.
 
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barjon said:
Tarjeeh 1:00 Newbury tomorrow was given a very gentle introduction and ran on strongly in the last couple of furlongs without being put under any pressure. Finished fourth of nine and now over 7 furlongs which should suit. For some reason B365 still have the price at 8/1 with no-one else better than sixes. Hope they don’t know something I don’t. Looks a warm race so ew.
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Nice one BJ
 
Ripon 3.28 - Bollin Joan 9/1, 3 places (7 runners) - she was a smashing winner for the Longshot thread back in the spring and improved on that career-best next time up but has been flat since. I suspect her form since then has been about getting her mark back down and they’ve succeeded. She’s a pound lower than for that latter win. She's jt-top on my figures but 4lbs clear on RPRs so would be a value bet anyway but the third place is compelling an each-way approach. You can get 10/1 if you fancy the win-only bet.
 
Marb said:
Friday-Hamilton

As per the anti post thread, I have backed Edward Cornelous for the six furlong race at 7.17.

I took 6/1 with Hills. I recognise he might go a point or two bigger but I applied a bet boost so we'll see what happens in the market.

I really like his form and so I did a cheeky tenner each way for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood aswell.

The main objective is to land the prize tomorrow night. If he does that he might shorten a bit for Goodwood. He needs to win to give himself a good chance of making the cut for Goodwood too. But definately one step at a time.

Will he do the business or make me look like a fool. We'll see tomorrow.
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Edward Cornelius dead heated behind winner Rathbone for second place in the Scottish Stewards Cup.

A good run all in all. He won't go up too much in the handicap but probably just enough to guarantee himself a run at Goodwood.

His win first time out this season was on soft so maybe he found todays ground plenty firm enough. I think with another day in mind his ideal ground might be good-soft.

Re-Goodwood. I doubt if he would be good enough to win a Stewards but if he got in off a very light weight he might just sneak a place on the day if he got a bit of cut in the ground.

But not worth betting anti post though with most firms only going four places each way at present, (they'll probably go at least six places on the day).

Be better to wait until the day. I will be looking to back something else for the Stewards nearer the time aswell. There's plenty to look at.
 
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More interested in the Golf today if I'm honest. I have a couple of trackers out but they are both tight in the market. Koy Koy at Newmarket (he's changed yards) I'm leaving alone but Cabinet of Clowns is worth a small interest, also at HQ, in their last. I got a little 11/4 yesterday afternoon and I've doubled him with Emily Upjohn (KG). I'm also small each way on Minzaal in the Hackwood at 7s but I may cash out on that as it's not an each way race.
 
Yes, a quiet day for me too. These are my summaries written and sent out on Thursday (with updates):

Newb 1.50 - Looking at the RPR column tells you all you need to know about how tricky this race is. Basically, whichever runs its race wins and if they all do it will be down to whichever suffers least inconvenience by the way the race unfolds. I’ve taken 9/1 Tasman Bay, the outsider of the field, for a value interest.

Nwb 2.21 - I have to give Rainbow Dreamer (10/1 taken) another chance after it was forced to race wide in the Northumberland Plate and couldn’t get competitive. Going Gone and Diamond Bay are the obvious alternatives. (RD my only bet, to smallish stakes.)(RD doesn't run. I've reinvested, to slightly larger stakes, on Going Gone 7/2.)

Newb 2.56 - Will Buick goes to Newmarket for a full book of rides on Saturday so there must be at least one he fancies more than Man Of Promise who disappointed me at Ascot. The worry with Rohaan is that he didn’t back up last season’s Wokingham win until this year’s renewal but he has the winning of this race on that form. I’ve taken Run To Freedom (14/1, 4 places). That duck egg next to his name was a career best (off 103) by some way in a commensurately fast time at Ascot in the Platinum Jubilee and he might just be a fast-improving sprinter. If he improves another 7lbs here he could well win. (I'll probably take a sickness insurance saver on MOP.)

Rpn 3.28 - I always like doing this race because of its local significance. Bollin Joan did us a 33/1 turn at York in the spring and improved on that next time up here. I suspect her form since then has been about getting her mark back down and they’ve succeeded. She’s a pound lower than for that career-best win. She’s 15/2 just now but only one bookie is pricing up the race so I’m holding off until more come up with a market. (Took 9/1, 3 places.)

Ches 3.08 - I was keen on Manaccan (6/1 taken) as an improver with the best draw but Queally has me worried. He tends only to win for a very few select trainers and Ryan isn’t one of them. I’m only going in half-strong on that one and hoping for the best but expecting it not to be off. I’m struggling to make a strong case for anything else.

Ches 3.41 - This is a mental race but I had to do it to see what it threw up. A £100k handicap restricted to apprentices? At Chester? This is asking for carnage! Some of the riders have little or no experience of the track and few will be able to judge the pace so riding ability probably counts for more in this race than in a senior jockeys’ race. There’s a fair chance adrenaline will bring about a fast pace so a closer might win but I’m going to go with those that like to race prominently and hope the jockey gets it right. The most likely is probably Enfranchise [NR] who is on a curve and might be better than the bare form of last time when she was denied a clear run. The jockey usually rides her so knows her well. The other one I like is seasonal debutant Star Caliber (5/1). He’ll need to go up at least 7lbs if he’s to have any chance of making the cut for the Ebor so if it’s a serious target he really has to win this handsomely. He can’t afford to wait until the weights come out and pick up just a 4lbs penalty. (Took a big price for the Ebor but held off here, didn't back it, forgot about it, haven't backed it, now 9/4...)(12/1 Cockalorum taken too.)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
…….Ches 3.41 - This is a mental race but I had to do it to see what it threw up. A £100k handicap restricted to apprentices? At Chester? This is asking for carnage! Some of the riders have little or no experience of the track and few will be able to judge the pace so riding ability probably counts for more in this race than in a senior jockeys’ race. There’s a fair chance adrenaline will bring about a fast pace so a closer might win but I’m going to go with those that like to race prominently and hope the jockey gets it right. The most likely is probably Enfranchise [NR] who is on a curve and might be better than the bare form of last time when she was denied a clear run. The jockey usually rides her so knows her well. The other one I like is seasonal debutant Star Caliber (5/1). He’ll need to go up at least 7lbs if he’s to have any chance of making the cut for the Ebor so if it’s a serious target he really has to win this handsomely. He can’t afford to wait until the weights come out and pick up just a 4lbs penalty. (Took a big price for the Ebor but held off here, didn't back it, forgot about it, haven't backed it, now 9/4...)(12/1 Cockalorum taken too.)……..
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Quite agree! I’ve gone for Alfred Boucher with the wonderboy up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ripon 3.28 - Bollin Joan 9/1, 3 places (7 runners) - she was a smashing winner for the Longshot thread back in the spring and improved on that career-best next time up but has been flat since. I suspect her form since then has been about getting her mark back down and they’ve succeeded. She’s a pound lower than for that latter win. She's jt-top on my figures but 4lbs clear on RPRs so would be a value bet anyway but the third place is compelling an each-way approach. You can get 10/1 if you fancy the win-only bet.
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Out to 12s. That's a worry but I've gone in again BOG.
 
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Originally Posted by Desert Orchid
Ripon 3.28 - Bollin Joan 9/1, 3 places (7 runners) - she was a smashing winner for the Longshot thread back in the spring and improved on that career-best next time up but has been flat since. I suspect her form since then has been about getting her mark back down and they’ve succeeded. She’s a pound lower than for that latter win. She's jt-top on my figures but 4lbs clear on RPRs so would be a value bet anyway but the third place is compelling an each-way approach. You can get 10/1 if you fancy the win-only bet.



Out to 12s. That's a worry but I've gone in again BOG.

3rd, backed in to 6/1. I'll take it. Arguably lost the race in the first two furlongs by sitting too far back.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ches 3.41 - The other one I like is seasonal debutant Star Caliber (5/1). He’ll need to go up at least 7lbs if he’s to have any chance of making the cut for the Ebor so if it’s a serious target he really has to win this handsomely. He can’t afford to wait until the weights come out and pick up just a 4lbs penalty. (Took a big price for the Ebor but held off here, didn't back it, forgot about it, haven't backed it, now 9/4...)(12/1 Cockalorum taken too.)
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SC faded out of it. Money saved, I suppose.
 
Glory and Honour Redcar 5:25

Here is a gelding of six years who has just gained a lowly mark of 59 having run three times last or second last over distances of 7f and 1mile, at least half a mile too short for him (before all that he’s been hurdling and won a couple)

Tomorrow is his handicap debut and wonderboy BDLS treks north for the ride which is over 1m6f. Absolutely no form to commend him on the flat and marginal odds-on at the moment, nonetheless if I see evens I’ll snap it up. If I finish up poorer I suspect I won’t be alone.
 
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