What are you backing Today? Part 2

Marb said:
I'm giving a good shout to Princess Shabnam in the 7.15 at Wolves tomorrow night.

She is a really improved horse this year who couldn't mix it up in a competative group race the last day, but beat the admirable Gale Force Maya the time before, which is very good form, and as Princess Shabnam handles the all weather, (won a class 3 handicap at Chelmsford earlier this year), she can be forgiven for that last effort. If anything, it'll ensure she goes off a backable price tomorrow.
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Still think she'll turn out to be a good horse next season but I was hoping for a better run than that.

On top of her last run in the Bengough you can safely say she is done for the season now. Right horse at the wrong time maybe.
 
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Marb said:
Still think she'll turn out to be a good horse next season but I was hoping for a better run than that.

On top of her last run in the Bengough you can safely say she is done for the season now. Right horse at the wrong time maybe.
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With her hcap mark so high as a 3yr old I'm not surprised she got beat today.
 
Aussie Pals were getting stuck ino the mare Portation at Gawler......they took all the black and now it's gone red before i was told:( Got beat in a 3 way photo serves them right for leaving Fist out of the loop....so be warned:lol:
 
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I'm restraining myself and waiting.

Doom is available at 6/1 on the machine but theres no money around but sneaked in a quite bits and pieces 50 quid at 5/1 average.

Could end up a 4/1 shot so being patient.....no real move for Chalie Appledy's who opened around the same price as he is now on the machine.

It's now or never but unless one of these newcomers is out of the ordinary Doom must take all the beating today.:)
 
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At least TM is aboard today, tan, which is a plus after the ride she was given last time. I’m in.

ps: don’t much like the going now soft/heavy in places which is maybe why she is not a lot shorter.
 
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Outsider said:
This didnt register with me earlier but I've just realised.i heard Sean Bowen say on tv that when it got beat it was by a decent horse and that horse was TWINJETS who runs at Cheltenham on friday.
LLwas a 4 yr old then and twinjets 5 and gave LL 20lb and a 6L beating.
Interesting to see what price it is.
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Thx. I don’t think they expected Letterston Lady to be beaten that day and if her recent win is anything to go by Twinjets must be a good one. I’ve joined you, but missed 2/1 which is a shame.
 
I never even looked at the going<<<<<<<<<<<<< dumbazz

I looked at the betting early doors and saw becarra Rose was the only horse entered/Epsom Derby later on and she was 25/1

My take was the trainer\s a wally who wouldn't know a good horse if it jumped up and bit him on the ass and he's patronising the owner........the gamble has done nothing to change my mind.:ninja:

a 1000 pounds has mover her from 32 to 7 on the machine.....all in small bets.......false fav trust me
 
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It was more like it, though. The winner is one for the notebook. Nothing else in the race but the two of them was in with a chance.
 
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Winner looked to be loving that ground whereas Doom quickened like he was going to leave them all for dead but didn't go through with it on the ground.

The winner had a much higher knee action suited to soft and is obviously a fair beast who won on merit.
 
Chel 2.40 - Knight Salute 11/4, BOG - I have the main two on the same rating, a mile clear of the rest. Yesterday they were evens and 15/8 and I reckoned if I ended up with a free bet it would go on the bigger price (Knight Salute). I reckon it should be evens the pair and good luck to the rest so 11/4 strikes me as huge. It isn't a question of fancying it more than Pied Piper. I don't really care which of them wins but I reckon the 11/4 is waaaayy wrong and makes it a must bet. It's like getting 11/4 heads on the toss of a coin. It might come up tails but it's still the one to bet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Chel 2.40 - Knight Salute 11/4, BOG - I have the main two on the same rating, a mile clear of the rest. Yesterday they were evens and 15/8 and I reckoned if I ended up with a free bet it would go on the bigger price (Knight Salute). I reckon it should be evens the pair and good luck to the rest so 11/4 strikes me as huge. It isn't a question of fancying it more than Pied Piper. I don't really care which of them wins but I reckon the 11/4 is waaaayy wrong and makes it a must bet. It's like getting 11/4 heads on the toss of a coin. It might come up tails but it's still the one to bet.
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Two things are affecting the price; the Triumph result and the opinion that Pied Piper is more likely to improve from last season.
 
Quick question on the ITV 4-1 offer on Bet365. Let's say that I back a 4-1 winner of the first race and already have a bet on the 5-1 fav in the next. If I use the free bet to top-up on the same horse and it wins do I then get two free bets on the next race?

I've tried to find the answer to no avail. I know that only the first bet in a race counts to start the free bet 'thread', but it's not clear if you can have multiple threads running at the same time. Hypothetically you could keep topping up on the same horses and then have 8 free bets for the last.
 
ep1987 said:
Quick question on the ITV 4-1 offer on Bet365. Let's say that I back a 4-1 winner of the first race and already have a bet on the 5-1 fav in the next. If I use the free bet to top-up on the same horse and it wins do I then get two free bets on the next race?

I've tried to find the answer to no avail. I know that only the first bet in a race counts to start the free bet 'thread', but it's not clear if you can have multiple threads running at the same time. Hypothetically you could keep topping up on the same horses and then have 8 free bets for the last.
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It wouldn't be my understanding.

I think they would apply your free bet in place of your original bet so the second bet becomes a non-qualifying second bet. If the second horse loses you'd get your stake for that refunded but the other bet would be a loser.
 
Strong Leader Cheltenham 5:00, 11/4 atm - only the one bumper at Warwick to his name which he won with an eye catching burst of speed to put the race to bed before easing to the line. He had so much left that Adrian Heskin couldn’t pull him up for ages.
 
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The Newbury and Donny cards look very tricky with the deep ground. Small interest in Lone Eagle in the St Simon via an ew trix with the two I fancied yesterday.

Only other bet is Captain Broomfield at Kelso. I don't normally get involved in maiden hurdles but he caught my eye last season when he unshipped his rider and got loose at Haydock before running a good race in second behind a subsequent winner. He bled the next day but I'm giving him a chance in what is likely a poor race.
 
Totally convinced this is Pied Pipers champion hurdle today. He's below top class and they'll want him winning everything he can before the big boys come out to play.

Straight win treble @ 12/1

Pied Piper 4/5
Life in the Park 4/5
Edmont Dantes 3/1
 
Euronymous said:
The Newbury and Donny cards look very tricky with the deep ground.
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Yes. I took one glance on Thursday and decided against looking any further.

Cheltenham and Kelso for me today (written on Thursday):

Ch 2.05 - Conditions are likely to suit Neville’s Cross (edit - maybe not so much now) but, while his profile remains positively progressive, he is now a third-season chaser. I always add a notional 10lbs to hurdles ratings in chases so Tullybeg (NR) looks a very dangerous opponent, as does Coeur Serein. Tullybeg came over here twice last year and didn’t run to form either time so I’m going to stick with Neville’s Cross each-way.

Ch 2.40 - I have the front two a lot further clear of the rest than RPRs and a wee bit further clear than ORs but they dutch at around 1/5 so no bet. If I end up with a freebie it will go on Knight Salute. (Edit KS was 15/8 then so as I said elsewhere the 11/4 is too long to ignore.)

Ch 3.15 - Effernock Fizz came over a couple of weeks ago and won the Welsh Champion Hurdle, showing much improved form again. She is clearly on a curve and is much better handicapped now over fences. If she can prove 10lbs better than her hurdles mark she really should win barring mishap. For similar reasons, Poseidon might be the main danger. I took 8/1 Effernock Fizz ante-post earlier in the week when three places were on offer. Some bookies are still going three places despite there only being seven runners and one is going 8/1 BOG so I’ve gone in again. But it might just be a very hot little race.

Ch 3.50 - Fergal O’Brien is going great guns this season and both Brennan and young Hogan are operating at around 30% for him. Ask Dillon has become disappointing and is hard to fancy. Victoria Malzard rides this course and her horse very well indeed but she’s always claimed so her allowance can’t be added on. They are probably sound prospects for a place at worst. Botox Has beat an in-form Brewin’upastorm, 19lbs his superior on ORs, in the National Spirit but maybe the big improvement was down to dropping back to that trip. If I thought he was guaranteed to fully stay this trip I’d be all over him like a rash. 134 was the cut-off rating for the final last season so there has to be a chance anything rated higher just now will only be looking to qualify. There has to be the chance Botox Has is targeting the Coral Cup but he might be able to afford to win this en route. It’s a very tricky race so I’m going to take 25/1KSC. The fast ground is a bit of an unknown but, for me, that’s amply compensated for in the price.

Kel 2.48 - This could be another pretty hot race. De Rasher Counter was hampered out of the National when carrying my money. I’m not prepared to give up on him yet but he’s vulnerable to young improvers and can’t afford to win this if they have something bigger in mind. I like the look of the second-season novices but they dutch at odds-on. The safe bet is no bet but it’s a race worth watching.
 
Who says no one uses and abuses forums anymore?

Reading this place today made me realise how well this place is doing.

Long may it continue.
 
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It's been largely fine through the summer and should pick up nicely again with the start of the NH season 'proper', as some of us would have it.
 
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