What are you backing Today? Part 2

Inchicore has a handicap at Royal Ascot stamped on her forehead!

She ran strong through the line not beaten that far. Improve for the run.
 
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Marb said:
Inchicore has a handicap at Royal Ascot stamped on her forehead!

She ran strong through the line not beaten that far. Improve for the run.
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I made a mistake in that I didn't realise how poorly in she was at the weights today.

She was carrying level weights with much higher rated horses.

She's been beaten half a DOZEN lengths or so by a horse whose probably ran to 100 or so in winning.

Hopefully the handicapper won't do anything or maybe even drop her a pound or two for next race, (handicap at Royal Ascot please Alan King!)
 
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Marb said:
Inchicore has a handicap at Royal Ascot stamped on her forehead!

She ran strong through the line not beaten that far. Improve for the run.
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She won't get in one, off 87 Marb...needs to win a race...

The Ebor could well be the long term target...
 
What about the new handicap on day two?

The Copper Horse handicap it's called, Max.

A new handicap for four year olds over 1M6F....looks perfect if she could make the cut.
 
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Marb said:
What about the new handicap on day two?

The Copper Horse handicap it's called, Max.

A new handicap for four year olds over 1M6F....looks perfect if she could make the cut.
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Would have to win twice to get in that...

Harder to get in that than the Ebor!!!
 
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She's a lightly raced 4 year old, Max.

She's taken in her last three races within the space of two-three weeks apart.

So what's not to say that Alan King will find a class 2 or 3 handicap for her in a couple of weeks time.

A win there be enough.
 
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RM said Broome "was just toying with them" in the Mooresbrige, and it's hard to see anything changing that today. He's too short to constitute a single, so I've coupled him with Erzindjan in the 2.05, which pays fractionally over 12/1 with B365.
ps: Unless I miss my guess, the former is off abroad (no future entries) which makes him more a good thing today.
 
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I've taken a 'three-cross' for the sake of an interest today at the Curragh:

Flying Visit 8/1 - best horse in the race, just shouldn't be that price.
Serpentine 8/1 - likewise
Joan Of Arc 10/3 - faith in St Aidan
 
I don't really believe the ratings re Serpentine being the best horse in the race and of course he might not be off today but at 10.5 on the machine he's worth a bet esp with an IR lay placed at much shorter given his run style. There's also a chance Broome has been winning very poor races for the grade.
 
I have him on a high figure for the Derby and reckon 'the Lads' have unfinished business with him in the Arc. His Arc jockey (Soumi? - need to check that) reportedly said later he wouldn't have wanted to ride anything else in the race.

I take the point about him maybe not really trying first time up but the very fact he turns up in a G1 first time up interests me.

I presume the Coronation Cup is the first really big target and I've backed him for that too (14/1) but it's only a fortnight away so the horse will need to be fairly close to his peak and fairly close might be close enough.

No big deal if he doesn't win today. It's the future I'm more interested in with him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have him on a high figure for the Derby and reckon 'the Lads' have unfinished business with him in the Arc. His Arc jockey (Soumi? - need to check that) reportedly said later he wouldn't have wanted to ride anything else in the race.

I take the point about him maybe not really trying first time up but the very fact he turns up in a G1 first time up interests me.

I presume the Coronation Cup is the first really big target and I've backed him for that too (14/1) but it's only a fortnight away so the horse will need to be fairly close to his peak and fairly close might be close enough.

No big deal if he doesn't win today. It's the future I'm more interested in with him.
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His Derby run only equates to 115...he stole that from a bunch of nonstayers...the 4 year colts olds are abysmal

Love Love Love, Love is all you need!
 
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Maxbet said:
His Derby run only equates to 115...he stole that from a bunch of nonstayers...the 4 year colts olds are abysmal

Love Love Love, Love is all you need!
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On whose figures?

Timeform 124 (end of season after defeats in prepping for the Arc in the GPdP and struggling in the ground over shorter at Ascot, so possibly higher for the Derby at the time)

RPR 121

Me 124

Normally Timeform are roughly 5lbs higher than my non-handicap ratings but even so he was a wide-margin winner of the Derby. It's not his fault that the rest didn't stay but they were around the 115 mark, which is low for placed horses in the race. I'm happy to stand by my rating for Serpentine until I get sick of losing money on him :)

I don't know why, but I'd completely forgotten about Love. I have her on 125 and she'd be entitled to her allowance. She must be feared wherever she turns up.
 
I'm putting this horse down so I don't forget, he runs on Tuesday at Musselburgh.

4.38 Euro Implosion by far my best bet on this card. I don't mind going back two seasons to see why a horse is very well handicapped, but three seasons is usually where I draw the line.

Euro Implosion won three races on the bounce in 2019, including here at Musselburgh over this distance. That win was on a mark of 62, (after the winning hat trick he went up to 80) .

He went backwards last season, but after having a 2021 seasonal opener, he arrives in this low level class six on a mark of 59, so everything looks perfect for him to get his head in front starting off here at Mussleburgh. I'm hoping for 5/1 or thereabouts when they price it tomorrow.
 
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I just think last years Derby was a freak result and it's almost impossible to draw an accurate rating

Khalifa Sat one run since and ran a RPR = 107
Amhran Na Bhfiann best RPR in 3 runs since = 96
Kameko clearly didn't stay.
English King best RPR in 2 runs since = 109

All of them Give him a rating of 115/116
 
Maxbet said:
I just think last years Derby was a freak result and it's almost impossible to draw an accurate rating

Khalifa Sat one run since and ran a RPR = 107
Amhran Na Bhfiann best RPR in 3 runs since = 96
Kameko clearly didn't stay.
English King best RPR in 2 runs since = 109

All of them Give him a rating of 115/116
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Ruling out the possibility that the race got to them?

Take the winner out and it was a sub-standard race, with the gap back to the second equating to 8lbs or 116 [on my ratings]. In a normal Derby you want the placed horses to be pushing 120.

However, to suggest the runner up in the Derby is only a 108 horse is pushing credulity. English King, from memory, had excited some respected observers and was strongly fancied by plenty on here after putting up a decent performance in his trial.

Kameko may not have fully stayed but was punted as though he would (5/2f) and still good enough to get 128 from Timeform two runs later over just 1.5 furlongs less.

Do I think the form is rock solid? No, but he backed it up on my time ratings and is worth the benefit of any doubt for now.
 
Marb said:
I'm putting this horse down so I don't forget, he runs on Tuesday at Musselburgh.

4.38 Euro Implosion by far my best bet on this card. I don't mind going back two seasons to see why a horse is very well handicapped, but three seasons is usually where I draw the line.

Euro Implosion won three races on the bounce in 2019, including here at Musselburgh over this distance. That win was on a mark of 62, (after the winning hat trick he went up to 80) .

He went backwards last season, but after having a 2021 seasonal opener, he arrives in this low level class six on a mark of 59, so everything looks perfect for him to get his head in front starting off here at Mussleburgh. I'm hoping for 5/1 or thereabouts when they price it tomorrow.
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I'm also sweet on Ayr Poet in the 2.20.

A very good lower grade horse whose only attempt at class four level two runs ago resulted in him being given too much to do by his jockey. He then went back down in class when only beaten a nose the last day. Basically, he's still very interesting with this featherweight on his back upped to class four level again.
 
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