What are you backing Today? Part 2

I like King's Lynn in the Achilles. He's 9/2 now which is a bit tight but I got some 8s on Monday (that ante-post prop thread we had last year I couldn't find). He has strong claims of reversing Chester form (franked since) with El Astronaute given he lost a length out of the gate to him and was closing towards the end of the race. Haydock a tough course to hang on also. Top trainer and he's relatively unexposed over the trip.

Safe Voyage concedes 5lbs to most and more to the filly in the John o'Gaunt but imo this is a Group 1 horse over 7f and I think his class edge is more than the weight he concedes. The drift this morning (6.8 taken on the machine) makes him a bet.
 
Euronymous said:
I like King's Lynn in the Achilles. He's 9/2 now which is a bit tight but I got some 8s on Monday (that ante-post prop thread we had last year I couldn't find). He has strong claims of reversing Chester form (franked since) with El Astronaute given he lost a length out of the gate to him and was closing towards the end of the race. Haydock a tough course to hang on also. Top trainer and he's relatively unexposed over the trip.

Safe Voyage concedes 5lbs to most and more to the filly in the John o'Gaunt but imo this is a Group 1 horse over 7f and I think his class edge is more than the weight he concedes. The drift this morning (6.8 taken on the machine) makes him a bet.
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Best of Luck, Euro.

I remember thinking Moss Gill was a good horse last season, he was third in a Nunthorpe. I reckon he can run your fancy close today.

The soft ground might get Moss Gill back to his very best plus a pound of two more I hope. He has won of better ground but I feel his future might be on soft.
 
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I don't trust Moss Gill. All his best form seems to be at York and he was likely flattered in the Nunthorpe (see Soldier's Call)
 
Marb said:
There's one horse worth a write up from me tomorrow.

Chester

2.40 Alexander James won first time out in 2019 when winning a novice stakes race for Iain Jardine. He actually won that race in the manner of a very good horse when beating the hot favorite trained by Simon Crisford, called Chance a whopping 13 lengths.

He then placed twice which in novice races which included a placed run behind a 100+ rated horse called Last Empire.

The next we saw of him in this country was a year later when chucked in a prestigious handicap at Royal Ascot, when trained by Gay Kellaway.

He finished 11th that day which was actually a better run than the finishing position indicated as he was leading his group until the closing stages.

A year on he now joins trainer Michael Appleby who chooses Chester as the first place to run Alexander James.

He's been given a good chance by the handicapper because he's now running on a rating of 91, which going back through his form, seems pretty fair.

He's a front running type who has been allocated stall 2 tomorrow which could aide his front running style, so this fella might prove difficult to get past here if his jockey makes use of his good draw.

14/1.
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Nice write-up, Marb; hope he wins for you.
 
Euronymous said:
I like King's Lynn in the Achilles. He's 9/2 now which is a bit tight but I got some 8s on Monday (that ante-post prop thread we had last year I couldn't find). He has strong claims of reversing Chester form (franked since) with El Astronaute given he lost a length out of the gate to him and was closing towards the end of the race. Haydock a tough course to hang on also. Top trainer and he's relatively unexposed over the trip.

Safe Voyage concedes 5lbs to most and more to the filly in the John o'Gaunt but imo this is a Group 1 horse over 7f and I think his class edge is more than the weight he concedes. The drift this morning (6.8 taken on the machine) makes him a bet.
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Well done.
 
Euronymous said:
I like King's Lynn in the Achilles. He's 9/2 now which is a bit tight but I got some 8s on Monday (that ante-post prop thread we had last year I couldn't find). He has strong claims of reversing Chester form (franked since) with El Astronaute given he lost a length out of the gate to him and was closing towards the end of the race. Haydock a tough course to hang on also. Top trainer and he's relatively unexposed over the trip.

Safe Voyage concedes 5lbs to most and more to the filly in the John o'Gaunt but imo this is a Group 1 horse over 7f and I think his class edge is more than the weight he concedes. The drift this morning (6.8 taken on the machine) makes him a bet.
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That was a seriously good shout, Euro.

I kept looking at the ratings and could find no good reason for it to win, not even at 8/1. I knew it was highly regarded but it just had so much to do on the figures it could find 10lbs and still not win.

It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with it now. I thought they might just be trying to get its mark up enough to sneak past the cut-off rating for the Wokingham final decs, at which point I would have been interested but a 10lbs rise beckons.

Well done again.
 
Thanks

I didn't understand those ratings Dessie. I mean he only just failed to peg back El Asto at Chester off levels and then Ainsdale who was 3rd on the Roodeye sandwiched Liberty Beach and Lady in France in the Temple and yet going into that race the fillies were rated 109 and 106 respectively and Ainsdale was on a mark of 99. The ratings for both Ainsdale and King's Lynn needed adjusting after Chester.
 
Euronymous said:
I like King's Lynn in the Achilles. He's 9/2 now which is a bit tight but I got some 8s on Monday (that ante-post prop thread we had last year I couldn't find). He has strong claims of reversing Chester form (franked since) with El Astronaute given he lost a length out of the gate to him and was closing towards the end of the race. Haydock a tough course to hang on also. Top trainer and he's relatively unexposed over the trip.

Safe Voyage concedes 5lbs to most and more to the filly in the John o'Gaunt but imo this is a Group 1 horse over 7f and I think his class edge is more than the weight he concedes. The drift this morning (6.8 taken on the machine) makes him a bet.
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Nice shout, Euro.
 
Euronymous said:
Thanks

I didn't understand those ratings Dessie. I mean he only just failed to peg back El Asto at Chester off levels and then Ainsdale who was 3rd on the Roodeye sandwiched Liberty Beach and Lady in France in the Temple and yet going into that race the fillies were rated 109 and 106 respectively and Ainsdale was on a mark of 99. The ratings for both Ainsdale and King's Lynn needed adjusting after Chester.
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Sounds like you're right, Euro (well, obviously you were!) My biggest problem was that I didn't study the Haydock races because I didn't fancy the look of them. I was going purely on the ORs and RPRs.

No doubt I'll cover the form at some point as better races come up but it might be one of those scenarios whereby the handicappers' hands are tied by their own rules. They decided some time back not to adjust ratings which seemed 'too good' in non G1 form (somebody might be able to put me right about the cut-off level).

Still, if I owned the horse and felt it had a good 15lbs in hand of its mark there's no way I'd be picking up £21k for blowing a handicap mark that might win it £60k in a race like the Wokingham.

Makes me wonder what else Balding or Madge has for that or the Stewards' Cup...

Balding is a brilliant trainer.

It's also an object lesson on the importance of studying the form.
 
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Euronymous said:
I was pretty lucky tbf. Re-watching the race Moss Gill missed the break which most likely cost him the race.
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He was slow out and took a while to get going, making up loads of ground in the final two or three furlongs.

He got his head in front at one point but Kings Lynn had a bit extra in reserve, which Moss Gill couldn't have had given how far back he was at the start.

That was my reading of it, but take nothing away from your winner, Euro. Well deserved.

If Moss Gill possesses that turn of foot on soft ground, (P J Mcdonald was saying beforehand he might now have a preference for soft ground), then I wouldn't want to take him on in these conditions in the near future.

I think today's form should stand the test of time, especially at group three or group two level.

They were a good bit clear of the third.

Although one negative adage for Moss Gill is although in 2019 he was only out the first two once in about a dozen starts, more recently he does occasionally throw in the odd stinker or underperforms, so maybe not a horse I'd want to ever have too much money on at short odds.
 
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Not very inspiring cards today.

Alfred Boucher ran well into third in the City and Suburban at Epsom and is down in class today 3:55 Windsor. He’s opposed by Faisal who is labelled “exciting” and could be anything, so hopeful rather than confident.

I was rather more confident with Twilight Calls - 3:25 Leicester - until I read the comments from Henry Candy after I’d got my money down! “ He may be a little short of work having missed a few days with a bruised heel, but a run will do him good and he should go alright”. He is shortening in the market, though, so I’ve not cashed out.
 
Mmm, AB ran ok and finished 4th - 1/2 a length, a nose and a neck behind Faisal who looked pretty good. Dunlop was right about TC being a bit short and it would have been better to have listened (particularly since there was late money for Imperial Yellow). Not a happy day, but not much harm done.
 
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I've two for Saturday.

Doncaster

2.30 Noonday Gun was third behind the now 95 rated Inchicore on its first start over 1M5F at Lingfield. His next start he was third at York over 1M4F, getting closer to the winner and second horse in the process. He's on a positive trajectory and 7/1 is a fair price to have a go at.

Epsom

5.40. I can't let Barbill go unbacked having at one time thought he would be a contender for the Ayr Gold Cup. He's getting older, but he was a listed winner on soft ground in France and he handled Chester last season when winning on Gd-St. You need to put a big line through the last run, because he's not the type of horse you want to lay at double figure prices dropping in the handicap, he's a live chance at 14/1 or thereabouts.
 
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The form handicap of the year was at Newmarket in mid may, the race that Bullace won before his Heron third. The London Gold Cup might supplant it today with King Frankel and Oz Legend representing. The former is still backable (isn't even fav for the opener at Epsom) but Oz Legend has gone really short at Donny (3.40)

Also on Hurricane Lane in the Derby and Horsefly in the 7.15 at Lingers (also strong form ties, this one with Save a Forest). This filly has drifted because of the rain but I'm hoping the ground won't be too bad by race time.
 
It's another quiet day away from the Derby for me.

I managed to snaffle 10/3 Century Dream yesterday for the Diomed, my only strong fancy of the day.
 
Unlucky, DO.

A great day for the bookies so far.

Oh This Is Us was second in the exact same race at 8/1 against Zaaki in 2019.

The form was there but you had to go back a few seasons to see it.
 
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Sunday Sovereign a N/R in the Dash.

A nightmare for anyone who backed him at big prices anti post before the final declarations.

Roll on Royal Ascot now I guess.
 
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Evasive Power 4.05G Led all the way for a cosy win at Lingfield latest, and with Wm Buick on board, he could well do the same again on this downhill 6f.
11/1 B365
 
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