What are you backing Today? Part 2

Bete Noir said:
As I posted I am an old man and first became interested in 1951 (Lester Piggott was a few months older than myself) when i began work as an apprentice at 15. During the half hour lunch-break I used to sit with the tradesmen who tried to find four for a Yankee each day. Their strategy was to look for selections on the on the Daily Mirror racecards that won or came 2nd last time out recently in the current season. I was despached with 11/- (55p) to find the bookie's runner in the nearby greasy spoon (no betting shops or online then and an account need to bet legally). 55p may not seem much but my wages were £2.50 a week and the tradesmen only got £10. With a win the spirits on the shop floor increased considerably :lol:. You probably couldn't care less about this stuff, but I stll have an interest after 72 years and long may it continue sez I - hopefully.

Southwell 7.00 is the top class race on the UK mainland today and looks difficult for punters IMO. A class 3 4yo+ extended sprint over 7f+ on St.
Early market expected 9.35 no's 9, 6, 2, 10, 4, 10, 13, 8, 1 indicating a very open contest. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, contender 13/2, not expected longer than 13/1.

6. Justcallmepete (4/1 early mkt) looks OK being supported (C4) LTO 12 with H Evans/D Costello combo in good form. OK for class/ability too.
2. Zip (4/1)(C&DD6) also supported with R Fahey also in from, alhtough I am not a fan of the yard as the overall strike-rate hovers around 10%, so which one's do you go for?
1. Steet Kid (11/1) (D2BF3?) not currently supported LTO 52 track fitness? KP de Foy/D Muscott combo have the best recent form. A speculative each-way punt?
13. Abnaa (11/1) (C&D2D4) not currently supported LTO 5. A Brittain/Mark Win(5) combo currently in form, another I could consider.

Comment: Perhaps just a watching brief today.
ATR form verdict just to compare with the above.
Zip is best when racing on the front end and, given his resurgent form, he enters calculations despite needing to register another personal best, having been nudged up 1lb for a C&D win 12 days ago. Course specialist Justcallmepete, who finished a close second in the aforementioned race, has a feasible chance on these terms and is also feared. However, preference is for FARASI LANE, who is 3lb lower than his last winning mark and is taken to benefit most from a solid early pace.

Top Tip: FARASI LANE (10)
Watch out for: ZIP (2)
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Good call.BN.:thumbsup:
 
Kempton.

Single.

4.35. Amy Santiago 10/1

stk.5.00 rtn 55.00.

Faces harder task against the male, but is still unexposed.

Bete Noir.

Brought back memories about the bookies runner, in my younger days, on a Saturday myself, mother and father would write
out our bets and my grandfather would take them and meet the bookies runner....my bet was a 6 pence up and down 6 pence double...
for the younger ones ( 2 1/2p )

Good luck all.
 
Everybody is being very welcoming seeing as I didn't post much - so thanks :). Doesn't look a good day for racing all round on the UK mainland with the forecast poor weather conditions to deal with. The top class race is a 7 runner novice stakes and not my cup of tea really with Idee Foxee (5/6 early mkt). I thought I might try a different strategy just to have an interest; to consider the mathematical true odds in each race form the early market (9.00) and make selections from the yards in form over the past month, and that's it.

Lingfield (going forecast St to Slw rain & snow) Early market odds from 9.00. GL Moore top track trainer.

Lingfield (going forecast St to Slw rain & snow) Market odds from 9.00. GL Moore top track trainer

2.00 Secret Contact (9/2 early ) DM Simcock, (alternative Fox Flame (9/2) Charlie Johnston)
3.00 Bascinet (7/4) EJ Houghton
3.30 Idee Foxee (5/6) J Chapple-Hyam
4.00 Hill Station (9/2) GL Moore
4.30 Galileo Glass ( 10/3) P Evans

My comment: Omit Idee Foxee and consider the others for a low stake Yankee - but please yourself it's your cash you are risking :p.
 
As it is rather early for me to give up on the racingI have tried a reasonable race at Fontwell IMO.

Fontwell (going forecast S watered rain and snow) Early market odds from 10.15. GL Moore top track trainer with Jamie moore top track jockey.
3.10 Early market expected no's 5, 9, 3, 8 indicating a win rstricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1

5. Kotmask (7/2 early mkt) (CBF?) LTO 21. One of the two best for overall class/ability. GL Moore tips the scale as the yard in form and Jamie is the top track rider.
9. Lifetime Legend (4/1) (D) LTO 8 up 7lb for win. Not massive early market support but needs to be considered?
3. Pyramid Place (4/1) LTO 21 3rd
8. Pearly Island (13/2) least early support of the possibles, LTO 8 (D). L Wadham/Cannon combo in form close to GL Moore past month.

MY comment: As I am a trainer enthusiast I would take Kotmask with a saver on Lifetime Legend.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
Kotmask was beaten over three lengths into second at Plumpton last time and he is capable of being in the mix. However, preference is for PYRAMID PLACE, who ran with great credit when third in a hotter contest at Wetherby and the son of Authorized makes plenty of appeal running off the same mark. Last-time-out winner Lifetime Legend would be foolish to dismiss under a 7lb penalty following his recent win at Catterick.

Top Tip: PYRAMID PLACE (3)
Watch out for: KOTMASK (5)
 
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Great analysis BN. I’m also backing Pyramid Place as I think Kotmask doesn’t really get further than 2m and PP’s level of form is way better than the others


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@viking, pleased to see that you go along with the analysis. I did actually **** it up as I meant to use Pearly Island as my saver and mis read my remarks noted on my racecard, which I often do unfortunately (it's an age thing). However, I thought that you might like to know the basis that I work from. A pro-punter and hack that I have a lot of respect for is Tim Drakeford (used to market the RacingSystemBuilder). The following is an extract form a free e-book I obtained of his quite a few years ago now: -

How to Become a Professional Gambler
Chapter 5 - The principles of Systematic Betting

Quote,"You may have heard the old saw that fast horses win races. This is a tautology, because by definition, of course, the fastest horse in the race on the day always wins. The trick is to find the one which will be fastest on the day before the race is run! To me, this trick has three aspects. First, the horse must have the ability to win the race. Second, the horse must be able to show its form - that is, to live up to its innate ability. Thirdly, and absolutely vitally, the animal must be fancied by the people connected with it. If they are definitely not trying, then the horse will not win, and if they are not trying very hard it is less likely to win than might otherwise seem the case. These are the questions, then, that the punter must answer before choosing a runner on which he might bet -

• Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
• Are the circumstances right for the ability to be shown on this occasion?
• Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?

If the answers to these three questions are an unequivocal "yes", then the punter has found the right sort of horse on which to invest his money. Whether he should actually do so or not depends on the final imponderable, value, which is the subject of a later section of this book."

( The above is the basis that underlies my analysis, and as for value I only consider runners in handicaps within the mathematical true odds range. So today 9 runners early it was 8/1)
 
Lincoln trial - 2.05W Sat
War In Heaven 12/1 4pl B365
Knows his way round the track,blindfold.
Unlike most, has no Lincoln entry, which should prove significant.
 
Try the top-class race on the UK mainland today Exe 3.00 a clss 3 hcap hdl over nearly 2m6f with 7 runners on G/GS.

Exeter ( going forecast G some GS) Early market odds from 11.00. P Nicholls top track trainer.
3.00 Eraly market expected no's 1, 4, 6 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1. American Sniper (3/1 early mkt) 2 tips. LTO 7. D Pipe in form past month.
6. Hititi (7/2) 3 tips CBF?) LTO 20. =3rd best for proven class/ability. Bryan Carver top track rider in form past month.
4. Sabrina (10/3) 6 tips (C) LTO 26. Overall proven best class. P Nicholls/A Cheleda combo in form past month.

MY comment: On balance Sabrina from Hititi look the two to consider on paper.
ATR form verdict for comparison with the above: -
HITITI showed a liking for this circuit when winning over an extended 2m on this card at last year's corresponding fixture and, having proved he has the stamina to cope with this trip with a respectable second in a similar race at Wincanton last month, he looks worth chancing. Sabrina runs for a powerful yard and shouldn't be too inconvenienced by today's drop in trip. She merits consideration alongside Iberio and Gladiateur Allen.

Top Tip: HITITI (6)
Watch out for: SABRINA (4)
 
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Bete Noir said:
Try the top-class race on the UK mainland today Exe 3.00 a clss 3 hcap hdl over nearly 2m6f with 7 runners on G/GS.

Exeter ( going forecast G some GS) Early market odds from 11.00. P Nicholls top track trainer.
3.00 Eraly market expected no's 1, 4, 6 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1. American Sniper (3/1 early mkt) 2 tips. LTO 7. D Pipe in form past month.
6. Hititi (7/2) 3 tips CBF?) LTO 20. =3rd best for proven class/ability. Bryan Carver top track rider in form past month.
4. Sabrina (10/3) 6 tips (C) LTO 26. Overall proven best class. P Nicholls/A Cheleda combo in form past month.

MY comment: On balance Sabrina from Hititi look the two to consider on paper.
ATR form verdict for comparison with the above: -
HITITI showed a liking for this circuit when winning over an extended 2m on this card at last year's corresponding fixture and, having proved he has the stamina to cope with this trip with a respectable second in a similar race at Wincanton last month, he looks worth chancing. Sabrina runs for a powerful yard and shouldn't be too inconvenienced by today's drop in trip. She merits consideration alongside Iberio and Gladiateur Allen.

Top Tip: HITITI (6)
Watch out for: SABRINA (4)
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Excellent tipping
 
Iceo popped up in my tracker, too.

Used to be on the pace, but I reckon he ran at Sandown to see if he was tractable after such a long break.
He was, and PN says he's improved a lot since, so I've taken the 6/1.
 
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yorick said:
Iceo - Sandown 2.35 8/1 ew

Blogged as usual.

:)
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PN says he has laid him out for this:



“We have been waiting for rain for Iceo and it has finally arrived. I thought he ran a cracking race to finish second at Sandown early in January when he was upsides the winner Hardy Du Seuil at the last hurdle and just got a little tired in the final furlong.

I was a bit surprised how well Iceo ran that day, given that it was his first time back after almost a year on the sidelines with a hairline fracture and he has come on tons for it.

Immediately after the race I decided to train him for the Imperial Cup and hopefully he will go very close to winning now that the ground has come right for him.”

Although te ground has come right for him it has also come right for Metier who wants it as deep as he can get it. I quite like him as well.
 
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barjon said:
PN says he has laid him out for this:

Immediately after the race I decided to train him for the Imperial Cup and hopefully he will go very close to winning now that the ground has come right for him.”

Although te ground has come right for him it has also come right for Metier who wants it as deep as he can get it. I quite like him as well.
Click to expand...

It would have been useful if he hadn’t entered him in the Betfair if this race had always been the plan


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That makes up for the Betfair Hurdle ante post bets going south [emoji41]


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