What are you backing Today? Part 2

Aftertiming to a degree here but yesterday I got 10/1 Quantum Leap and 14/1 Lethal Levi in their respective races today, each-way singles and an ew double.

(Sorry, reet. That's an extra burden QL will have to carry :))
 
Trueshan was 15/8 when I did the race yesterday and I didn't want to get involved at that price but 7/2 is very tempting, I have to agree.
 
Well done Hollie for the brave decision to give up the fight she was having and letting arriesgan bowl along.


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Desert Orchid said:
Aftertiming to a degree here but yesterday I got 10/1 Quantum Leap and 14/1 Lethal Levi in their respective races today, each-way singles and an ew double.

(Sorry, reet. That's an extra burden QL will have to carry :))
Click to expand...

Fell asleep and only just watched the replays. I'd thought it prudent to forgive QL's last run but the rise in class was too much for him here, I think. I'm hugely relieved that OFTG didn't quite get up. This was my ratings table for the race, with the BO column the best odds at the time of collating the figures, ie yesterday afternoon):

[TABLE="width: 646"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]MON
108
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oneforthegutter
[/TD]
[TD]Ian Williams
[/TD]
[TD]R Kingscote
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]e
109oe
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Island Brave
[/TD]
[TD]Heather Main
[/TD]
[TD]G Mangan 3
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bague D'Or
[/TD]
[TD]J Ferguson
[/TD]
[TD]D Muscutt
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]9/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Legendary Day
[/TD]
[TD]A P Keatley
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Winn 3
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]15/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rhythmic Intent
[/TD]
[TD]Stuart Williams
[/TD]
[TD]Sean Levey
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]108?
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Real Dream
[/TD]
[TD]Michael Stoute
[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Moore
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]+p s
[/TD]
[TD]7/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Quantum Leap
[/TD]
[TD]Edward Bethell
[/TD]
[TD]C Rodriguez
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]P?
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Goat
[/TD]
[TD]A Balding
[/TD]
[TD]Oisin Murphy
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]p v
[/TD]
[TD]3/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is a decent wee race with lots of ‘makeable’ cases. I like Oneforthegutter at the price but worry about the ground. I could fancy Island Brave [NR] on better ground too. He doesn’t have a Cesarewitch entry. Bague D’Or bumped into a job at York but arguably put up a career best so that makes him a candidate for the bounce. He might just be progressive, though, and those types can shrug off the kind of circumstances that lead to the bounce. Legendary Day was third in that race and has the same kind of shout. Rhythmic Intent would have the winning of this on his very best form and is a CD winner. Real Dream remains a Stoute dark horse and the booking of Moore will ensure strong support but I wouldn’t touch him at 7/2. Quantum Leap could be the biggest improver of the lot. The time before last he won pretty easily in good to soft despite giving away ground at the start in a modestly run race. He was slowly away next time but still looked three out as though he was going to pick them up but maybe didn’t quite see out the extra trip. It’s done his price no harm here. The Goat won by a mile in a fast time in heavy the time before last and maybe wasn’t over those exertions when disappointing in the Melrose but he’s a short price based on all the figures. I think Quantum Leap each-way against the field will do me for a fun bet.

At least Trueshan has covered all the day's outlay.
 
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I had a winner today but was so fed up after Day 1 of Donny that I couldn't be arsed posting.

Nothing tomorrow aside from a rollover going onto Gregory.
 
Reckon most of the pace will be high in the Portland, so I've taken a swing at 2:
Aberama Gold 16/1
Big Board 18/1
both 6pl B365
Reckon Arrest 9/2 should have the edge in the Leger.
 
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I'm an starting to like the look of Dutch Decoy in the 5.20 at Donny. He ran a good third at Goodwood in the Golden Mile on soft ground showing that he can handle these conditions. Before that he had run poorly several times in soft ground in his career, but he was never in good form going into those races, which might be the key to it, whereas he's been in good form this season, so that third at Goodwood of softish ground was eye catching. He's 11s or 12s today and can go close.
 
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Only small bets for me today.

Portland - Hurricane Ivor, Existent, Chipstead and Tees Spirit against the field and hope for some luck.

Park - Audience 9/2

St Leg - Alexandropoulis as per the longshot thread

4.10 - La Yakel 3/1

5.20 - Dutch Decoy ew 11/1
 
Rosslion has some engine and looks a good thing in the first at Doncaster but Sunway was not himself when finishing 15 lengths behind him in the Pat Eddery

Could be the one to follow him home this time

Rosallion
Sunway

SFC
 
Continuous took time to get going over 1m3f but the further he went the more impressive he looked.

I reckon he'll improve a stone for the step up and win the St leger doing hand stands.

Long time since I had a 5 star bet Continuous ***** 3/1 looked a gift
 
Tanlic said:
Continuous took time to get going over 1m3f but the further he went the more impressive he looked.

I reckon he'll improve a stone for the step up and win the St leger doing hand stands.

Long time since I had a 5 star bet Continuous ***** 3/1 looked a gift
Click to expand...

I'm surprised Continuous is as big as 3/1, I have to confess, and I was tempted but I have this nagging doubt in that I think his superiority was exaggerated last time by the way the race panned out. He got the best tactical ride, held back off a pace that was a tad strong and the others were paying for it late.

These are my own figures (BO, as per, are the best odds at the time of collating the figures, yesterday afternoon/evening):

[TABLE="width: 421"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]BO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Arrest [/TD]
[TD]114 [/TD]
[TD]114[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[TD]9/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Continuous [/TD]
[TD]115 [/TD]
[TD]114[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]11/4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gregory [/TD]
[TD]111 [/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]9/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Desert Hero [/TD]
[TD]110 [/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]11/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tower Of London [/TD]
[TD]109 [/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[TD]9/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chesspiece [/TD]
[TD]109 [/TD]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Denmark [/TD]
[TD]102 [/TD]
[TD]106[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]50/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Middle Earth [/TD]
[TD]102 [/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]12/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexandroupolis [/TD]
[TD]101 [/TD]
[TD]102[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]33/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

In what is his last St Leger, I have huge regard for Dettori's decision to opt for Arrest but I also wonder if Middle Earth is the yard's #1 and Dettori wasn't going to get to ride it anyway, plus they've shelled out £50k to get in. I reckon they expect to get that back and then some. Third gets £80k and they'll be £10k down if he's fourth.
 
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Tanlic said:
..could not have won easier:)
Click to expand...

That's stretching it a bit, Tanlic.

Did it very well, sure, and with the same kick that won for Adelaide River last week but he was kept up to his work until very close to the line. He did make his price look big, I agree.

Hope you won plenty!
 
Leger was run just 2.6 secs above standard.which suggests the course has dried out considerably?
 
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