What are you backing Today? Part 2

Couldn't resist a small ew on Dulcima 2.10L, 8 run. Won FT up @ Southwell and appears to have a soft ground action, and her half-sister won over 12f. By Australia, she should stay well, and the booking of Richard Kingscote looks a bonus.
16/1 B365
 
There's some good racing in Ireland on Saturday at the Curragh, plus here in England, at Goodwood, York and Haydock. All covered by ITV racing.

I wanted to get an early look at the action.

Here's two horses I like a lot at the prices.

Haydock

2.25

Dash Of Spice was a horse to follow of mine after an impressive win in the Duke of Edinburgh handicap at Royal Ascot 2018. That was a top class effort for a colt, which he was at the time before being gelded.

He was off for 2019, then returned last season, where overall he couldn't rekindle his best form.

Consequently his handicap mark went down to a very fair mark. He has since switched stables from David Elsworth to Adrian Keatley.

His new trainer applies the first time tongue - tie and hood, which from reading some of the comments in running for Dash Of Spice, (noted as hanging right handed when winning at Ascot), the headgear change, plus the fair rating make him worthy of support in this.

York

2.40

Inchicore is an improving filly, nicely bred out of Galileo, who will surely love running with cut in the ground and stepping up in trip here.

The favourite Believe In Love won a group three over in France at the end of the last season, but this group three looks a deeper race, so I'm prepared to take Believe In Love on at the prices.

The horses trained by Joseph O Brien and Hughie Morrison both need to find a few pounds on what they've done to date, so at about twice the price of those two, I'll chance Inchicore at double figure odds, for trainer Alan King, who can compete on the flat with the very best flat trainers, especially in staying races, at about this distance or further.
 
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Marb said:
There's some good racing in Ireland on Saturday at the Curragh, plus here in England, at Goodwood, York and Haydock. All covered by ITV racing.
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Yeah, good cards. I've already backed Wembley in the Irish 2000. Will go on the ground and the Newmarket version is being way overfactored into Saturday's prices. Poetic Flame a place lay imo.

I like the look of the Sandy Lane for a bet at Haydock. The market leader holds that position via a win on good to firm at Hamilton, Isabella Giles has been disappointing and amongst the others the only one I can see who will be ideally suited to cut and 6f is Method.


This evening at Sandown Bullace is worth a small go in the Heron despite no form on the ground. I actually put the horse he beat at Newmarket, Crossford, into the tracker instead of him as I just immediately had him down as a Group horse.
 
Euronymous said:
Yeah, good cards. I've already backed Wembley in the Irish 2000. Will go on the ground and the Newmarket version is being way overfactored into Saturday's prices. Poetic Flame a place lay imo.

I like the look of the Sandy Lane for a bet at Haydock. The market leader holds that position via a win on good to firm at Hamilton, Isabella Giles has been disappointing and amongst the others the only one I can see who will be ideally suited to cut and 6f is Method.


This evening at Sandown Bullace is worth a small go in the Heron despite no form on the ground. I actually put the horse he beat at Newmarket, Crossford, into the tracker instead of him as I just immediately had him down as a Group horse.
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Interesting. I agree on Method.

I'm glad you've mentioned Bullace as coincidently I have already backed him today. Only on a little Yankee but I have had an 8/1 winner already today with a few left to run. Hoping for more!

I'll chance Van Gogh in Ireland.
 
Reckon Imperial Sands 6.55S wil perform better on soft than he did in the fast ground Craven.
Worth a small tickle at the general 25/1.
 
Marb said:
There's some good racing in Ireland on Saturday at the Curragh, plus here in England, at Goodwood, York and Haydock. All covered by ITV racing.

I wanted to get an early look at the action.

Here's two horses I like a lot at the prices.

Haydock

2.25

Dash Of Spice was a horse to follow of mine after an impressive win in the Duke of Edinburgh handicap at Royal Ascot 2018. That was a top class effort for a colt, which he was at the time before being gelded.

He was off for 2019, then returned last season, where overall he couldn't rekindle his best form.

Consequently his handicap mark went down to a very fair mark. He has since switched stables from David Elsworth to Adrian Keatley.

His new trainer applies the first time tongue - tie and hood, which from reading some of the comments in running for Dash Of Spice, (noted as hanging right handed when winning at Ascot), the headgear change, plus the fair rating make him worthy of support in this.

York

2.40

Inchicore is an improving filly, nicely bred out of Galileo, who will surely love running with cut in the ground and stepping up in trip here.

The favourite Believe In Love won a group three over in France at the end of the last season, but this group three looks a deeper race, so I'm prepared to take Believe In Love on at the prices.

The horses trained by Joseph O Brien and Hughie Morrison both need to find a few pounds on what they've done to date, so at about twice the price of those two, I'll chance Inchicore at double figure odds, for trainer Alan King, who can compete on the flat with the very best flat trainers, especially in staying races, at about this distance or further.
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It's good to see Inchicore is strong in the betting.

One horse I'm adding to my bets today is Sunday Sovereign at York, (3:50). He changed trainer from Paddy Tworney to Roger Varian, now with Tim Easterby. He's dropped down the ratings since winning two juvenile events in Ireland, (one on soft ground).

He's recently been gelded which is often a big indicator to possible improvement coming. I could see Tim Easterby winning races with this horse, so worth chancing at this price. Tim Easterby has a strong hand to play in this race too with three live chances and Sunday Sovereign could trump them all.
 
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Jason Weaver just tipped Dash of Spice Marb. Please everybody will Wise Eagle to win in the 3.15 at York. It would really kick start Adam Nicols training career! He’ll probably finish last but I’m getting nervous already.
 
I’ve been backing the Easterby horses recently but always seem to pick the wrong ones.
 
moe said:
Jason Weaver just tipped Dash of Spice Marb. Please everybody will Wise Eagle to win in the 3.15 at York. It would really kick start Adam Nicols training career! He’ll probably finish last but I’m getting nervous already.
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I just noticed it's running.

Yes of course it can win, its joint favourite!

Good luck to your fav trainer, Adam Nicols, who I think you said trains his horse on the beach near you at Bamburgh!
 
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moe said:
I’ve been backing the Easterby horses recently but always seem to pick the wrong ones.
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I've suffer the same at times. I figure he's got Copper Knight and Count D'orsay who are up there as near favourites, so in these circumstances we should take the third horse of his string, Sunday Sovereign, pretty seriously here, Moe.
 
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Tom Marquand for Dash Of Spice caught my eye on Thursday too but he'd need to be back to closer to his best old form in the first time tongue-tie to win. I might put some sickness insurance on him as I backed him a few times last season.

The one horse I like best in a very light betting day is Tomfre 3/1 (York 2.05). I should have taken 5/1 on Thursday but held off waiting for the BOGs etc which has worked out against me. The non-runner hasn't helped but 3/1 still strikes me as value with Ajyaall the only danger in my book.
 
Yeah always enjoy reading your analysis for Saturdays, DO. I thought you seemed to be having a quiet one today.
 
Hochfeld 1.40 Good. In good form this year and I like a top weight at Goodwood. A mile 6 at this track takes some getting and he stays much further

Method 3.35. Not sure I understand the drift on this one. The fav looks one to take on given the ground and Method's run in the Cornwallis was franked big time by Winter Power.

Wembley Irish Guineas. Aside from Mac Swiney I want to be against all the horses in single figures in this. Lucky Vega has stamina concerns, Poetic Flame has had too many runs and Van Gogh I just don't see the form. Of course when you back a Ballydoyle horse you have to be expecting some stable companion with no form to beat you so Van Gogh probably wins.
 
Future Investment 2.25H
Will stay all day and should handle the mud. Trainer and jockey inspire confidence.
Strong bet @ 5/1 B365
 
I'm rowing in again on poetic flare. The French guineas was a farce and he would have won it had it been truly run. He will also see it out better than most in the conditions. 6/1 is more than fair.

Also today

Green planet 3.15 York .. A couple of you seem to fancy inchicore in the listed race and this horse ran an eye catching 2nd to him last time. Conditions suit and surely he's better than his mark.

Ffion 1.55 haydock ... Totally unexposed improving and probably well handicapped. Conditions suit and sure to go on from latest c and d 2nd

Frankenstella 2.25 haydock.. I've always followed this one , continues to improve, really unlucky last time and conditions suit.

Nebulosa 3.00 haydock ... Top 2 year old form when 2nd to saffron beach . Won twice since and looks like the step up in trip will bring more improvement
 
Marb said:
York

2.40

Inchicore is an improving filly, nicely bred out of Galileo, who will surely love running with cut in the ground and stepping up in trip here.

The favourite Believe In Love won a group three over in France at the end of the last season, but this group three looks a deeper race, so I'm prepared to take Believe In Love on at the prices.

The horses trained by Joseph O Brien and Hughie Morrison both need to find a few pounds on what they've done to date, so at about twice the price of those two, I'll chance Inchicore at double figure odds, for trainer Alan King, who can compete on the flat with the very best flat trainers, especially in staying races, at about this distance or further.
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Sorry to quote this again, but Inchicore is shortening to 10's in a place now.

I'm very confident, despite the step up in grade, that this filly is going to go close today.

She must be talented for Alan King to be stepping her up to group three level.

A lot may depend on how good the opposition are, but as I explained, they are beatable.

Inchicore is my nap today for sure.
 
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istabraqfromneigh said:
I'm rowing in again on poetic flare. The French guineas was a farce and he would have won it had it been truly run. He will also see it out better than most in the conditions. 6/1 is more than fair.

Also today

Green planet 3.15 York .. A couple of you seem to fancy inchicore in the listed race and this horse ran an eye catching 2nd to him last time. Conditions suit and surely he's better than his mark.

Ffion 1.55 haydock ... Totally unexposed improving and probably well handicapped. Conditions suit and sure to go on from latest c and d 2nd

Frankenstella 2.25 haydock.. I've always followed this one , continues to improve, really unlucky last time and conditions suit.

Nebulosa 3.00 haydock ... Top 2 year old form when 2nd to saffron beach . Won twice since and looks like the step up in trip will bring more improvement
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Yes I'm all over Inchicore. I haven't had a feeling like this for a horse since Waldgeist in the Arc!

Good to have your input, Ista.
 
Yeah watching the Punchestown Festival he never really travelled that great but Ronald still came home to get third.

It was probably the mark of a very good hurdler.
 
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