What are you backing Today?

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Beaten a nose, 1.11 as it past the post :(

First 1.5f went against him, as it was slow. I still thought he would get up, but ran a sound race and may have been intimidated in the last 100 yards.
 
Got a mate who's got a share in rocco breeze runs in the 20.35 kempton realy fancies it chances and the form of it last race been franked in the first tonight
 
Ripon 3.20 Caranbola . win only

Similar to yesterday gone for an old exposed performer, whose trainer is in poor form against 4 yo improvers.

Caranbola has a piece of form on soft over 5f, that, should give him a chance if fully fit,which is the big question.

Add to the fact, he's a 6yo, 4 lb higher than his best winning OR and only one over night tissue price has been taken, I will have to wait for an on course drift, to get a price.

14/1 was simply taken to trade IMO.
 
Marble said:
definately watch out for a filly called Arsaadi who's entered on Thursday at Newmarket. She'll improve massively for the last run where she did get a poor ride by Hanagans standards, and watching the videos from last year I get the impression the further she goes the better she'll be. She could be a decent E/W price if declared for Thursday. I'm not saying she'll win, but don't be surprised if she runs really well.
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I've backed her E/W and might go in again. Here's hoping..
 
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Cheers Colin. Before her last run I thought she might be a sneaky outsider for the Oaks. So it's a bit 'do I or don't I,' type of thing. At that price I'll do her E/W. We'll see if she's any good today.
 
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Thanks. I'll be fascinated to see how she gets on next time, hopefully against the fillies. I've doubled my wedge, can't argue with that.:)
 
Two for today: 4.25 Newbury Inchina 9/4

Daughter of Montjeu ran a promosing race last year on debut. Make a better 3yo and the ground shouldn't inconvenience today. I expect her to beat the Cecil trained favourite who has one run on the AW and on pedigree would be suited to good ground.

3.05 Font Oscar Baby 9/2

Hopefully this proves an in-form mare, hacked up the last day and a seven pound penalty should prove little inconvenience. She could be a stone well in today taking into account the claimers 7lb.
 
Well done Trefflich with Inchina.

Bath 5.00 Destiny Of Dreams @ 9/2.

Carinya is a big favourite of mine, but I do think she may benefit from a strong early pace which I can't see here. I also think she's an in running bet as she can get detached early on.

I couldn't touch Lady Rosamund on this ground and trainer not really firing.

Night and Dance won lto, but I'm clueless re ground h/cap mark and ground.

Tidal Run's attribute is bouncing back of a trouncing and may well go in but I can't back an inconsistent horse without reasoning.

Although Destiny Of Dreams is 5lb higher than last winning mark, she should get the run of the race and handles these conditions well. Trainer in form and can get them ready off a lay off.
 
Thirsk 2.10 Bella Noir 16/1

Jumping in on the back of trainer form, but looks on a fair mark, as long as stamina hold out on this soft ground.

Thirsk 3.15 Mass Rally 16/1

Followed the Alben Star form over a cliff and Mass Rally comes from that race. This actually looks one of the weakest contests he's run in for quite a while, no problem with conditions and visor back on.
 
Nazreef is a fairly lightly raced 5yo handicapper, his trainer Hughie Morrison is quite apt at winning these big money handicaps, (See Sagramor in the Britannia last year), and I'm looking forward to seeing if Nazreef continues his improvement from the front tomorrow. Taken 18's but I still wouldn't put anyone off taking 12s. You should get a very good run for your money.
 
Difficult to gainsay someone who putting some good ones up recently but for me Nazreef hasn't performed on soft and only has one turf win to his credit.

Few in the race have shown well on soft however Emilio Largo has and also has a none too shabby CV. The Betfair price (18.5) worries me a little as Cecil's winners tend to be well backed and it won't be one I'd back heavily but still could be anything.
 
Tout Seul said:
Difficult to gainsay someone who putting some good ones up recently but for me Nazreef hasn't performed on soft and only has one turf win to his credit.
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No worries, best of luck with yours.

The feeling I have is if it were firm ground he'd be more likely to get swamped by hold up horses towards the finish. He's versatile, winning both left and right handed recently at Wolves and Kempton, and any good handicapper who you'd fancy to win a few races would have to be durable, thus I'm taking the chance he'll go on the soft. May not be the wisest of moves on my part, but if he does handle it, I'm thinking the soft could actually make it easier for him to dictate matters up front.

Imo if he runs the race I think he will and handles the ground, you'll need something with a sharpish turn of foot to do him.
 
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Sorry Marb, but I don't think he'll last home in the conditions, and the most likely winner on the ground is one without a sharp change of gear - Fury.
Would've won the Lincoln on anything like this ground, and potentially pattern class at greater distances, will stay on long after Nazreef has called it a day, imo.
 
Fury definately has his chance on the book imo, and is one of the horses I fear most.But his sire Invincible Spirit never raced on anything apart from Gd-Fm ground, and despite Fury winning at Newmarket as a 2yo on Soft, (He went badly off the boil afterwards), he still has a question to answer on the ground in my book. One good run as a two year old and then losing all his form two years doesn't scream 'soft ground performer'. You could argue he actually needs soft ground if you really wanted to I suppose.
Ps, no reason to think Nazreef won't stay, Reet.
 
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Marb
All Nazreef's victories have come on sharp tracks, and none at more than a mile. While i agree he's in the form of his life, his whole profile suggests to me he'll struggle with today's grind, whereas Fury was said to need softer ground to win the Lincoln, ran like it, and deffo looks a horse who needs further.
Good luck with your bet though.
 
I took a a look at Nazreef last night and I was initially split down the middle of you two guys.


Looked at horse closely, I do think he's worth a punt, as I can find reasons for an improved performance compared to last year, when finishing 5th off the same mark.

He is a better horse on the a/w, but he's rated 16lb lower than his new mark and I can't say that's a bad h/cap mark today. He's also a horse that has no real continuity in races, so very hard to say he doesn't act here, etc.

If you try and find differences to last years run in the race;

Apart from his debut runs at 2 & 3 yo, he looks a better horse running off short intervals. Last years run come off a break.

Wore 1st time visor to win lto, which may find a little more improvement. His win came off a mark of 96. His win prior to this race last year was off 91.

Holland is 2/2 on the horse over a mile from only 3 rides. Jockey has his critics but I'd rate him over Block, especially on a prominent runner.

Trainer form is also much better than last year with a strike rate of 30% for the last 5 months.

The ground could become tacky, so the horse's bottle may come into play. Although his last two wins came on p/t, he looks a battler, with in running prices for both wins hitting 50.0 & 480.0. These kind of odds are quite common in small volume for the hold ups, but for a prominent runner, quite surprising.

I took a look at the draw, thinking it was a negative but it actually looks perfect, if simply looking previous runnings. 12 of the last 15 have won from double figure + draws, with the last two g/s races going to:

20,19,24,8,15,14
22.5,19,16,6,14.

I've backed it, with a small e/w saver on Oriental Scot.

Good luck Marble
 
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