What are you backing Today?

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Good call RH;)

i'm interested in Clowance Estate in the 3.15 race. Roger Charlton does well at the track with his older horses..6/18..he has only had one runner in this race recently..2002 when he won it with Dune.

Clowance House was favourite off a mark of 93 to win the 46k handicap at Goodwood..off the same mark in this and with Lee back aboard..could be nicely tuned today...13.0 taken
 
Gordon Lord Byron in the Sprint Cup. The summer ground has gone for Lethal Force and Garswood's form isn't good enough to justify his price. GLB is consistent, has good form at the track and isn't as vulnerable to a speed merchant today as he has been throughout the season.
 
I've backed Mister Music in the mile handicap at Kempton. Still 3lbs lower than when he finished fast into third in last year's Goodwood Mile from a shocking draw. Back to form two runs ago under today's rider and ran well last week over a trip that probably stretches him. He's 18 on BF.
 
I've got a saver on Clowance Estate in that race, EC1.

I've gone in double-strength on Lethal Force today. I can see nothing in his form to suggest softer ground will inconvenience him in the least. He's 6lbs clear on ORs and that 7/2 could look like Christmas come early at 3.52pm.
 
Just my view DO, but though Lethal Force is the highest rated, he didn't last home at Deauville , much the same as he didn't on softer ground at York, and similar is likely today.
Ryan Moore has apparently jumped ship from Gordon Lord Byron to Garswood; but I think he's guessed wrong, as the ground's unlikely to be soft enough.
 
i think ground and draw and early pace pressure will be against Lethal Force DO...I can't see him winning at all tbh. Garswood to me should be fav..think he may hack up
 
reet hard said:
Just my view DO, but though Lethal Force is the highest rated, he didn't last home at Deauville , much the same as he didn't on softer ground at York, and similar is likely today.
Ryan Moore has apparently jumped ship from Gordon Lord Byron to Garswood; but I think he's guessed wrong, as the ground's unlikely to be soft enough.
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Ryan certainly didn't jump.
 
just read your post RH

the ground is definatelykey here...yesterday they had plenty of rain there..Tellwrong said this morning that as they haven't raced on this course it may not be as slow as yesterday..but times yesterday were pretty slow..be interesting to see todays early races

if its as slow as yesterday Garswood must have a great chance..
 
It was a bad race with only Confessional genuinely off. The near side may have been at a disadvantage too. The runner-up's rider appeared to take a pull about one out to ensure he didn't challenge seriously. The overall time (60s and change) is just over a second slower than standard, which suggests good ground to me. They're maybe just kicking off the bits loosened by the rain.

No worries.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It was a bad race with only Confessional genuinely off. The near side may have been at a disadvantage too. The runner-up's rider appeared to take a pull about one out to ensure he didn't challenge seriously. The overall time (60s and change) is just over a second slower than standard, which suggests good ground to me. They're maybe just kicking off the bits loosened by the rain.

No worries.
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usually when they ask jockeys about the ground they give different views..all asked have said nearly soft ground..unusual

slower than which standard DO?
 
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that race should have equalled RP's standard just about..it was 1.64 seconds slower..approx 38lbs slower than Good ground

not sure how you are getting good ground from that time
 
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0-100 standard over 5f at haydock is 59.03.

60.14 is 1.10s slower /.14 * 3.7lb = 26.71lb slow
 
Gr.3 standard over mile 101.36

103.35 is 1.99s slow / .14 * 2.4 = 34lb slow.
 
gus said:
I've backed Mister Music in the mile handicap at Kempton. Still 3lbs lower than when he finished fast into third in last year's Goodwood Mile from a shocking draw. Back to form two runs ago under today's rider and ran well last week over a trip that probably stretches him. He's 18 on BF.
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good shout Gus.
 
EC1 said:
that race should have equalled RP's standard just about..it was 1.64 seconds slower..approx 38lbs slower than Good ground

not sure how you are getting good ground from that time
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No way, EC1. The standard is 58.7s for a 126 horse on good, fast ground.

1.44s slower than the standard time I have, from a horse rated 94?

If Lethal Force is a 121 [it's OR] horse it should be able to run to within 0.5s off the standard by comparison.
 
Desert Orchid said:
No way, EC1. The standard is 58.7s for a 126 horse on good, fast ground.

1.44s slower than the standard time I have, from a horse rated 94?

If Lethal Force is a 121 [it's OR] horse it should be able to run to within 0.5s off the standard by comparison.
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I was just quoting RP standards DO...my own standards suggest the going is similar to ...a little quicker...than what frogthetesticlechomper has stated..proper good to soft going

soft ground winner again as well
 
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EC1 said:
I was just quoting RP standards DO...my own standards suggest the going is similar to ...a little quicker...than what frogthetesticlechomper has stated..proper good to soft going

soft ground winner again as well
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... yet the trainer says he's a good ground horse?

Desert Orchid said:
If Lethal Force is a 121 [it's OR] horse it should be able to run to within 0.5s off the standard by comparison.
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Well, at 0.55s off standard, I was about a neck out with the time if miles out about which horse would do it. It was also noticeable that GLB was hardly kicking up any divots against that rail.
 
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