What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Desert Orchid said:
Exactly what am I not getting, Reet?

If Tellwright was going to put as positive a slant on it he'd have called it good and insist the rain was no more than they'd planned to put on artificially. He ignored the going stick readings, which pointed to good ground (imo) and told everyone the rain had got in. It may have done so elsewhere on the track. I'm pretty sure O'Meara wouldn't have withdrawn Tropical Beat without satisfying himself the ground was too soft but the times on the straight course are clearly indicative - regardless of what EC1 says - of ground no worse than good. In more than 40 years of compiling time ratings I don't ever recall a minus going allowance on soft ground.

At Cheltenham a few years ago we had 'good' ground both in terms of the going stick and the opinion of all those who'd walked the course in the morning yet track records were smashed right left and centre. I think it might have been James Willoughby who eventually theorised that the rain-freshened ground had created a spring in the turf that was propelling horses forward rather than slowing them up. It's possible a similar situation arose yesterday.

According to RPRs, Hoof It had never run within 7lbs on g-s (and 17lbs in soft) of his good ground top rating and 21lbs of his g-f rating. I don't imagine he could have run as well as he did if it was genuinely softer than good.

The only defence I can come up with for Tellwright is that he wanted to avoid likely criticism if he'd played down the effect of the rain and his get-out-of-jail card was the going in the back straight.

On the other hand, I'd been watching the weather forecast all week and it was pretty certain the area was going to get a right good dousing before Saturday so why on earth did he opt to water earlier in the week. Am I right in believing he admitted to watering on Wednesday?
Click to expand...

Hoof It has a G1 placing previously on ground slower than Good...most of the winners yesterday had easy ground win form....the RP standards showed it has easy ground...mine did..Frogs did..Gus hasn't said yet but i'll bet his showed easy ground as well.

You are swearing by the standards you use but don't really know how they are calculated...which should make you question how you are different to every other figure maker re the ground tbh..i know i'd question mine if i were out of kilter with many others

can you let me know what your 6f standard is there and what rating and weight it is standard for DO..might be able to see how you got good ground then
 
Chris...what did you make of the ground yesterday on the clock at Haydock?

I'll get back to you this week by the way..been going through the AW stuff when i've had chance
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
Hoof It has a G1 placing previously on ground slower than Good...most of the winners yesterday had easy ground win form....the RP standards showed it has easy ground...mine did..Frogs did..Gus hasn't said yet but i'll bet his showed easy ground as well.

You are swearing by the standards you use but don't really know how they are calculated...which should make you question how you are different to every other figure maker re the ground tbh..i know i'd question mine if i were out of kilter with many others

can you let me know what your 6f standard is there and what rating and weight it is standard for DO..might be able to see how you got good ground then
Click to expand...

sorry..meant Hoof It finished closer in a G1..was beaten 2l by Margot Did on easy in the 2011 nunthorpe
 
EC1 said:
Hoof It has a G1 placing previously on ground slower than Good...most of the winners yesterday had easy ground win form....the RP standards showed it has easy ground...mine did..Frogs did..Gus hasn't said yet but i'll bet his showed easy ground as well.

You are swearing by the standards you use but don't really know how they are calculated...which should make you question how you are different to every other figure maker re the ground tbh..i know i'd question mine if i were out of kilter with many others

can you let me know what your 6f standard is there and what rating and weight it is standard for DO..might be able to see how you got good ground then
Click to expand...

The standards, as I've said many times before, are the old Raceform standards, arrived at based on actual times recorded over several years. I'd argue it's as valid an approach as any and, from my own experience, far more reliable than any other approach. The 6f standard for Haydock is 1m 11.7s, which, in line with all the standards were:
originally compiled from times recorded on good to firm going
Click to expand...

Note: good to firm, not good. So any time close to that carrying over 9st strongly points to ground not being soft.

Hoof It may well have a G1 placing on slower ground but it's either not reflected in RPRs or his best RPR in g-s is that low rating I mentioned.
 
Last edited:
From the RP results section:

The going had dried a little since Friday and they were racing on some fresh ground. Luke Morris said the ground was "good to soft, not as soft as I thought."

The time for the opener was only 1.64sec outside the standard, suggesting conditions weren´t too taxing.
Click to expand...
 
Desert Orchid said:
The standards, as I've said many times before, are the old Raceform standards, arrived at based on actual times recorded over several years. I'd argue it's as valid an approach as any and, from my own experience, far more reliable than any other approach. The 6f standard for Haydock is 1m 11.7s, which, in line with all the standards were:


Note: good to firm, not good. So any time close to that carrying over 9st strongly points to ground not being soft.

Hoof It may well have a G1 placing on slower ground but it's either not reflected in RPRs or his best RPR in g-s is that low rating I mentioned.
Click to expand...

So 71.7 is your standard for a G1 on good to firm?...that explains why you believe it was Good ground..71.7 is too slow when compared to actual race results

you can see that simply by looking at past times recorded in the sprint which were recorded on good to firm

Society Rock = 70.2
Dream Ahead = 70.36
Markab = 69.4
Goodricke = 70.87
Iktamal = 69.92
Diktat= 71.04

70.3 is actually what your standard should be for good to firm for a race of this class if you look at those times and take an average.

Your standard is really set at more like the easy end of Good...thats not good to soft..just the slower side of middle Good... rather than middle of Good to firm where you believe them to be....so saturdays races is 12lb slower than your standard...which makes the ground yielding...which is what i get as well

The jockey quote you give just confirms it was Good to Soft......certainly not good ground anyway

i haven't suggested it was Soft ground..but it certainly wasn't Good ground looking at all available information
 
Last edited:
"Chris...what did you make of the ground yesterday on the clock at Haydock?"

I've only rated the odd turf meeting this year that you guys seemed interested in. I might rate it later, but in the meantime and simply looking at the RP +/- their standard, I'd say it looked to be on the slow side, not quite genuine GD-SFT, but not far off at all.

One thing that might be happening is that those old raceform standards were based on record times (to some extent I recall). I think they were also described as what a 'top class horse' could achieve carrying 9 stone. I have them all on an old laptop, but can't fire the thing up. Been meaning to get everything off the HD as there is old pics on there etc as well. Maybe I'll get around to that someday and take a look.

Anyway, raceforms old standards shouldn't make a difference to any speed figures compiled using them, at least for the better class meetings. What will have happened to a degree is that most course records have been broken since they were compiled, as horses are getting faster across the board, which means the older their old standards become, the easier they are to get. It makes no difference to the resulting figures, but might make a difference when looking at the going.

Thats the only explanation, or part of, that I can think of.
 
No one interested in the sectionals project? I can't build all the data between now and october on my own.

Was looking at starting off with 15 races over each distance for every level of class and we can build on our standards throughout the season with every meeting that goes by.

The camera angle at Kempton is consistent, 4-1 furlong poles are all visible, the cut off is two-three horse strides from the ending of the rail to time the 2f marker but will come with experience.
 
EC1 said:
you're on fire..great call:cool:
Click to expand...

Thanks EC (& others) - long may the roll continue. :)


Re Haydock standard times;
I think I'm correct in saying that yesterday's race was run on the new straight course, which was only laid a few years ago, and isn't used on every raceday?
If that's the case, Raceform ST's would be irrelevant, anyway (as would comparisons between Friday and Saturday)..
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
70.3 is actually what your standard should be for good to firm for a race of this class if you look at those times and take an average.
Click to expand...

You're presuming those other races were run on good to firm. They may have been on very fast ground with a tail wind...

If I get some time later in the week I'll check through my notes for past years' results.

EC1 said:
Your standard is really set at more like the easy end of Good...
Click to expand...

It's not my standard. It's Raceform's, ie the 'official' long-established standard time. I'm far from convinced horses are any faster now than they were say 10 years ago. Gordon Lord Byron, for example, wouldn't have got within 5 lengths of Dayjur over 5f.
 
reet hard said:
Re Haydock standard times;
I think I'm correct in saying that yesterday's race was run on the new straight course, which was only laid a few years ago, and isn't used on every raceday?
If that's the case, Raceform ST's would be irrelevant, anyway (as would comparisons between Friday and Saturday)..
Click to expand...

That's what they did at Ascot when they redeveloped. I still use the old standards for that track and they're working out well (notwithstanding poor ground management in recent years).

However, I'd like to know more about the extent of the relaying. Was it just returfed? Was the draining overhauled, etc?
 
RH, the new course is more or less most of the old course anyway. Old course was about 30yds wide, new courses combined are about 40yds wide. It'll make a difference to the draw, but a true standard (not an average time) on good ground I doubt there'll be much (if anything) to tweak.

DO, those raceform standards are more than a decade old though, and were probably tweaked little during the decade prior to that. Heres a link which attempts to explain the average increase in racetimes per decade.
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/getting%20faster%20pt%202.htm

Considering the difference between raceforms old standard and the RPs current, (and EC's by the sound of it), it would more or less explain the difference imo.

This probably isn't the correct thread to get into this. :)
 
DO
IIRC, it was built from scratch, with proper drainage,new turf etc.
As with Ascot, York, Wetherby et al, it would be less susceptible to extremes of ground.
 
Last edited:
Red hot on Rosseli in the lucky last at Leicester tomorrow. Horse is down to class 6 level having been in class 5's previously which makes sense. Ran is a seller last time where it ran creditably giving away weight. Wears new headgear tomorrow and I fancy it as strongly as I possibly can given the lowly nature of the event.
I rate Stag Hill as the danger, so a forecast might be worthwhile.
 
Last edited:
Shocking scenes with Rosseli, but they knew with the fav, very well backed.
 
Last edited:
They probably entered it up for the seller a few minutes after my tenner went on.:D
 
Last edited:
KEMP 8:15 SOLVANNA EW 16/1+
First time cheek pieces today and ideally need those to help a little, but Murphy also takes 7lb off. LTO the first three home came from off the pace. Yard does well with 3yo's and especially at Kempton. There are others to consider, but some of those have question marks hanging over them in this event.

Silver Lace's yard is in good form, but the horse hasn't done anything this year.

Aracdian Legend is stepping up in trip. Might not be an issue, but not certain to get it.

Red Tulip was gutsy LTO, but up a touch in class today and the HCPer might just have it's measure (despite the yard going well).

Lady Sylvia might be better on turf, and could possibly need to progress a little further. Though is dropping in class and due to that, is of concern.

Exclusive Waters might ideally need further than this.

Bowstar will need them to go too hard.

Victorian Number, while Turner gets on well with the horse, a mark of 65 over 1M round here might be pushing things a touch too far. Could run a big race though and rates as another danger.

Mishrif shouldn't be able to beat Solvanna on a line through Tevez and considering Murphy's claim today.

Due to Murphy's claim and the weights in Solvannas LTO race, the others look taken care of. Solvanna looks likely to run to around it's mark today (accounting for the claim). If the cheek pieces can bring about a bit more, then it should have a fair chance. Hard to be confident about the win, but an EW bet at 16's looks very tempting to me at the moment.
 
JUSTINEO 3.00 DONCASTER

Justineo drops in grade here, is the best horse in the race and has his ideal conditions. He was third in the King George at Goodwood where he led inside the final furlong and was caught by the 3yo Moviesta and was mugged on the line by Swiss Spirit. Before that Justineo had won a class 3 conditions event where he had Stepper Point back in third who has subsequently won twice the latest being a listed race. Before that he was fifth in the Chipchase, a race he couldn’t win off official ratings. William Buick is back on board, W2 from two rides and Roger Varian couldn’t be in better form. His record from 30th August reads, 1220211111221. He is 11-45 at Doncaster.

Masamah was fourth to Stepper Point at Beverley last time and 3ls behind Justineo at Goodwood so he may struggle to turn the tables. 7yos are 1-15 in this race and he likes to lead. There are a few front runners in this.

Borderlescott was third to Stepper Point at Beverley and 4ls behind Justineo at Goodwood. Another one who will do well to turn the tables.

Medicean Man was some 4ls behind Justineo at Goodwood and is 3lbs worse off here. He is in the Portland on Saturday.

Magical Macey hasn’t been seen since winning the Gosforth Park Cup in June and takes his second step into listed company. He won the Gosforth Park Cup off 97 and this will be tough off 102. He is 6lbs inferior to Justineo and is on the same weight. Though he was won after a break before this may well be a prep race to put him spot on for the Portland on Saturday, a race the yard won in 2010.

Tangerine Trees was behind Borderlescott in the Beverley Bullet and that form puts him behind Justineo.

Bungle Inthejungle was 5ls behind Justineo at Goodwood and the 3yo will do well to get nearer on these terms. 3yos are just 1-38 in this race. He has been mixing it in better races, though he hasn’t placed in six races this year.

Excelette was beaten 8ls in the Beverley Bullet and on that form she shouldn’t beat Justineo. She is 0-16 in fields of 8 or more runners.

Hoyam won a listed race at York as a 2yo but she hasn’t fared so well this year, 0-6. The record of 3yos in this race makes her easy to eliminate.

Judge N Jury is 0-3 in listed class and 0-14 in listed/group3 company. He races from the front but can’t keep up the gallop in this company.

Swan Song has unplaced on both her outings in listed company and is 0-6 in double figure fields.

Conclusion: This will be quick as there are plenty of front runners in the field. Justineo can lead or sit just off the pace. He is the best horse in the race on official figures and as Varian has his horses ripped at present, he may well take a lot of beating.
 
Good Luck

5.05 Carlisle-Hot Rod Mamma

Each way @ 6-1 [Bet 365] BOG

Be surprised if this CD expert is not a contender off this low weight
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top