What are you backing Today?

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another one that will win for sure..when it actually gets into a race rather than 2f burn out giving the winner a few lengths start..the warnings signs were there..small field..spencer on..when will i learn?
 
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EC1 said:
good call Tanlic..won comfy

3.10 even with extra poundage Steady Major is well in here..looks like an 85 horse on my calcs..so has a few in hand of these who look to be handicapped to suit their abilities

a lumpy bet for me at 3.1 earlier will hopefully top up the account after yesterdays non effort
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Unlucky EC. A winner is round the corner surely. Le Rouquin should win 3.45, though the price is long gone. Gigs has put this up elsewhere, it was 2/1 last night.


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i backed le rouquin last time out based on its prior run..its a 65 horse on my calcs....6lb in hand today..spencer on..evens:blink:

i'll pass at the price..should win but is very short...and if anyone can get it beat.....
 
BennyB said:
Spencer has cost me a fortune over the years. Awful one-dimensional jockey.


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if you look at that race..he needed only to be about a length or two further forward on the turn in..and he's won..but no he has to be last to first to look good...the horse needed the 10f last time..and has nearly overcome a real negative to finish so close..he knew it weren't a speed horse..but still rode it like one when he knew they had gone steady early..just move it into second at least on the far side...oh no I have to stay last..its what i do..muppet:)
 
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Eastern Witness is still a frustrating horse....I honestly think they are scratching there heads to find a distance for it........ there at a couple of furlongs out,... then gave up and that was half a mile shorter than LTO..... I'LL GIVE UP ON IT AFTER THAT DISPLAY
 
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Usually poor at laying favs but this Bisham Bedi looks very short to me about 13/8 with a 14lb rise to overcome, won a very poor race lto very easily but as i've put on the bf forum his full siblings couldn't win above a mark off 70.
Will have a little EW on Doc Holliday who usually goes well around here and 10lb apprentice allowance puts him on a nice mark.
 
Willie Mullins has a very-warm favourite in the shape of Morning Run in the Solerina Hurdle at Fairyhouse today, but I will be opposing with Baie Des Iles.

BDI gets all possible allowances in today's race, and runs from an effective mark of 119 - and this could under-estimate her chance significantly. She has to-date plied her trade solely in France, and whilst she has mixed Bumpers, Hurdles and Fences in her brief 8-race career, she was won four of those outings - scoring in each discipline - and has shown a sufficiently good level of form in the hurdles runs, to command a degree more respect here than the early betting would imply.

BDI's best piece of form from her four hurdles starts, would be her last run in that sphere in September, where she had Bathilde well beaten back in fourth. On a line (an admittedly meandering one) through Bathilde, BDI could reasonably be rated perhaps some 20-25lbs below Bonito Du Berlais, France's top juvenile hurdler.

Bonito Du Berlais was hugely impressive in winning the Prix Cambeceres by 12L, and is so highly regarded that connections have not only refused to sell (for astronomical money), but they have basically dared the owners of whoever wins the Triumph, to take them on at Auteuil in the Alan Du Breil this summer. Bonito Du Berlais is almost certainly just as good as Peace And Co, who is currently rated in the mid-150's, but even a conservative estimate of 150 for BDB would suggest Baie Des Isles is still notionally well-in from her relative mark of 119.

Another thing to consider is that BDI has been chasing since that hurdles victory in September, where she has generally acquited herself with credit; winning on her second start, before placing in a £75K Grade 2 in her last outing in November. That is form which further suggests a relative rating of 119 under-estimates her, and entries in the Triumph , Neptune and the Mares at the Festival, perhaps give further indication that connections think she might be fairly useful.

Today's race is competitive enough - it's a very tidy event for a Mares Novice actually - and the tie-in with Bonito Du Berlais is more Spirograph than straight-line.....but I think she is a very interesting contender for - what is for me, at any rate - a yard which is a complete mystery. I have availed myself of the 12/1 with Powers this morning (and buttons at 16 and 14.5 on Betfair) but I'm hopeful that bigger prices might be available later (when more books price-up the race), as she may be overlooked because of who trains her.

It may be a touch Quixotic, but I've also had some on at 170/34 (Win/Place) for the Triumph, 210 for the Neptune, and 155 for the Mares.

Having raced around the minumum trip at Auteuil, todays journey of 2m2f on Soft/Heavy should be right up her alley, and I'm hopeful of a big run.
 
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Good morning all........Ffos Las for my bets today FORYOURINFORMATION was down to go to Sandown but is here instead where he just about scrambled home last time, relatively unexposed with a light weight might just see him home again today, in the 2.40 I have to go again with GLOBAL POWER who let me down badly at Fontwell LTO lightly raced, has stamina aplenty and hopefully regain some of my cash back.
Wetherby 2.45 HERONSHAW It took my eye at Chepstow LTO and could show improvement today

good luck to you all
 
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I like Foryourinformation very-much for the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and it has to be noteworthy that Townend comes over to take the ride for Curtis today (amongst three others) rather than stay at home and ride for Mullins at Fairyhouse.

Big chance.
 
Grasshopper said:
I like Foryourinformation very-much for the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and it has to be noteworthy that Townend comes over to take the ride for Curtis today (amongst three others) rather than stay at home and ride for Mullins at Fairyhouse.

Big chance.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see PUFFIN BILLY bounce back to form and looks a backable e/w price at 12/1.
 
Puffin Billy is the perfect example of an Oliver Sherwood training master-class.

Win a couple of poorly contested/soft novice hurdles, get the horse handicapped way beyond it's capabilities, and spend the next two years watching it get hammered out-of-sight. Try fences, and when that doesn't work, drop it quietly back into a handicap hurdle, in the hope that:

a) the race cuts-up horribly, or
b) It's able to win from a mark just 7lbs lower that the one the handicapper was compelled to give it, due to the idiotic way in which it was campaigned two years previously.

Now.......need I say any more?
 
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Grasshopper said:
Willie Mullins has a very-warm favourite in the shape of Morning Run in the Solerina Hurdle at Fairyhouse today, but I will be opposing with Baie Des Iles.

BDI gets all possible allowances in today's race, and runs from an effective mark of 119 - and this could under-estimate her chance significantly. She has to-date plied her trade solely in France, and whilst she has mixed Bumpers, Hurdles and Fences in her brief 8-race career, she was won four of those outings - scoring in each discipline - and has shown a sufficiently good level of form in the hurdles runs, to command a degree more respect here than the early betting would imply.

BDI's best piece of form from her four hurdles starts, would be her last run in that sphere in September, where she had Bathilde well beaten back in fourth. On a line (an admittedly meandering one) through Bathilde, BDI could reasonably be rated perhaps some 20-25lbs below Bonito Du Berlais, France's top juvenile hurdler.

Bonito Du Berlais was hugely impressive in winning the Prix Cambeceres by 12L, and is so highly regarded that connections have not only refused to sell (for astronomical money), but they have basically dared the owners of whoever wins the Triumph, to take them on at Auteuil in the Alan Du Breil this summer. Bonito Du Berlais is almost certainly just as good as Peace And Co, who is currently rated in the mid-150's, but even a conservative estimate of 150 for BDB would suggest Baie Des Isles is still notionally well-in from her relative mark of 119.

Another thing to consider is that BDI has been chasing since that hurdles victory in September, where she has generally acquited herself with credit; winning on her second start, before placing in a £75K Grade 2 in her last outing in November. That is form which further suggests a relative rating of 119 under-estimates her, and entries in the Triumph , Neptune and the Mares at the Festival, perhaps give further indication that connections think she might be fairly useful.

Today's race is competitive enough - it's a very tidy event for a Mares Novice actually - and the tie-in with Bonito Du Berlais is more Spirograph than straight-line.....but I think she is a very interesting contender for - what is for me, at any rate - a yard which is a complete mystery. I have availed myself of the 12/1 with Powers this morning (and buttons at 16 and 14.5 on Betfair) but I'm hopeful that bigger prices might be available later (when more books price-up the race), as she may be overlooked because of who trains her.

It may be a touch Quixotic, but I've also had some on at 170/34 (Win/Place) for the Triumph, 210 for the Neptune, and 155 for the Mares.

Having raced around the minumum trip at Auteuil, todays journey of 2m2f on Soft/Heavy should be right up her alley, and I'm hopeful of a big run.
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i agree
if she reproduces the french form she will be very difficult to beat.
 
Suny......I've known you on forums for a long time, but this might be the first time this has happened! :lol:
 
I have been looking at the early races which have a similarity to them

They all look like 2 horse races.......if the betting is any sort of guide

I've taken the first two in betting at Lingfield, Wetherby, Sandown and Ffos las

2 X 2 X 2 X 2 = 16 four horse accumulators........ for a fun start to the day.

Scilly Isles Novices' Chase looks the most interesting race of the day.

Irish Saint was making mincemeat of Puffing Billy before he fell last time out.

PN has a line through Ptit Zig and should know the time of day and it would seem all the early money is coming for him.

Personally I thought Ptit Zig was a bit flattered when he beat Champagne West who was travelling better than him and suddenly stopped to nothing.

I don't think we saw the best of Champagne West that day and he's a much better horse than that.

He could go well today or as we Scots would say.......I think he'll pish this.

Champagne West looks a class above these 11/4 if you can get it
 
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Ptit Zig accounted for Champagne West very readily, imo, and I have Irish Saint down as somewhat of a good thing today.
 
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