What are you backing Today?

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Bangor 12.50 Kilronan Castle 9/1 e/way - I'm expecting a much better run from this horse today going back left-handed. He kept jumping left on a right-handed track l/t/o and kept losing so much ground at each fence and around the bends, being heavily eased when chance had gone in a better race than todays.
 
Sixties Groove (7.25) got himself into the worst possible position off a steady early pace latest. That he managed to pass a much better field than this in the last 2 furlongs speaks volumes for his chances tonight.
 
PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.00 Exeter-Kalifourchon @ 11-2 [Bet Victor]
1.30 Exeter-Mighty Leader @ 3-1 [Ladbrokes]
2.15 Ayr-Landmarque @ 5-1 [Race Bets]
3.55 Ayr-Sunset Marquis @ 3-1 [Skybet]
4.05 Bangor-Dingo Dollar @ 5-2 [Ladbrokes]
Click to expand...

Loss of 5pts
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

12.55 Southwell-Stun Gun @ 5-1 [Bet Bright]
1.45 Towcester-Wait A Second @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
2.05 Ludlow-Chakisto @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
2.15 Towcester-Zarib @ 13-8 [Bet 365][
2.25 Southwell-White Royale @ 5-1 [Boylesports]
2.35 Ludlow-Moscato @ 13-8 [Bet 365]
3.45 Towcester-Robin The Raven @ 9-2 [Bet 365]
3.55 Southwell-Sir Geoffrey @ 9-1 [Bet Bright]
 
2.55 - Southwell - Fleeting Glimpse. 3 point win. Available at 11/4
She ran a decent race on debut and has by all accounts come on a fair bit for that run. The main concern is whether or not she will handle the surface today. Balding’s usually improve markedly second time out and she should go close.


3.05 - Ludlow:
Adam Du Breteau. 2 pts win. Available at 9/2.
Miss Serious. 1.5 pts win. Available at 15/2.
Several of these have good records at this track and one of those, Still Believing, heads the market. However preference is for Adam Du Breteau and Miss Serious. Adam Du Breteau has taken a walk in the early markets, which is a concern, but he has proved progressive since returning to the track in July and there doesn't seem any obvious reason why he wouldn't be involved here. His jumping is still a bit 'novicey' but these are not the most demanding of fences and going right-handed will suit (has jumped right in a few of his races). He won an Irish Point on soft ground but his two victories under rules have come under faster conditions. His two Chase wins have come at distances short of three miles but today's extra distance shouldn't pose a problem on breeding. His last win came by eight lengths from a horse who was on a hat-trick and who franked the form by finishing a close second to a much higher rated rival in a Novice Chase. Miss Serious has fallen on her last two starts but Wincanton and Exeter are trickier courses to jump round than this track so she has a chance to get back on the up. She won her first two Chases and followed those with a good third, all at Newton Abbot. Most of her form has been going left handed but she was third here over hurdles behind the aforementioned Still Believing and is weighted to get closer to that rival today. This race represents a drop back in class and she looks on a mark she can exploit. The yard are in decent order and they have a profitable 18% strike rate here in recent seasons.


3.35 - Ludlow:
Bring Back Charlie. 2 pts win. Available at 9/2.
Midnight Target. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 25/1.
Midnight Gypsy and Bring Back Charlie come into this race on the back of victories. The former is turned out under a penalty after a comfortable win at Hereford and she has a good three pound claiming Amateur booked. She could be well ahead of her mark but it wasn't much of a race and preference is for Bring Back Charlie. He has been progressive since he went over hurdles and there could be much more to come now he takes a significant step up in trip. He is bred to be better suited by today's trip than the distances he has been performing well over and, as such, he could be well handicapped. The yard are still in good form and they have booked a very good three pound claiming Amateur. At a much bigger price it may be worth considering Midnight Target. She is still a maiden after six starts but her best effort came last time out at Bangor. She made some good late headway there over an extended two miles in soft ground and could be suited by this step back up in trip. She is not badly treated for this handicap debut judged on that performance and this stiffer test could illicit further improvement. Fitness has to be taken on trust but, if she is ready to go, she could outrun her big price.


6.55 - Chelmsford - Aqua Ardens. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
 
The main concern is whether or not she will handle the surface today

i like the A Balding 2nd time stats on the turf..when first looking at the sire stats for this one on the AW though..i thought initially looking at bare figures...oh dear....4/87..AE = 0.49....looks poor on the AW generally..then looked at fillies on AW.....0/36..oh crap

but looking at the beaten oppo IV ,,..gives a far more positive view of thsoe misleading bare stats......no real problem at all once real chance or those 36 runs is taken into account .....and at at Southwell..2 wins from 7

Balding is 2/8 at Southwell with 2yo's

don't make em win obviously...but i wouldn't be worried by the surface stopping it winning
 
I'm also on Miss Serious in the 3.05 at Ludlow in the hope she gets round on this easier track. 8/1 available with BetVictor


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Dr red eye in last at Southwell. Speculative but is 11lb lower than last win at Southwell (admittedly a few years ago. Three runs back at Brighton though only lost three lengths and down a few more pounds. Liam Douran is a apprentice I like taking off 5 also and I won't be surprised by a revival.

Would cap a good day for me but only one pt each way plus third leg in a Canadian.
 
PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

12.55 Southwell-Stun Gun @ 5-1 [Bet Bright]:)
1.45 Towcester-Wait A Second @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
2.05 Ludlow-Chakisto @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
2.15 Towcester-Zarib @ 13-8 [Bet 365][
2.25 Southwell-White Royale @ 5-1 [Boylesports]
2.35 Ludlow-Moscato @ 13-8 [Bet 365]
3.45 Towcester-Robin The Raven @ 9-2 [Bet 365]:) [R4]
3.55 Southwell-Sir Geoffrey @ 9-1 [Bet Bright] Non runner
Click to expand...

Profit of 4.5pts
 
Morning

My bets [1pt win on each]

1.05 Newcastle-Lake View Lad @ 5-2 [Stan James]
1.20 Lingfield-Indulged @ 4-1 [Stan James]
1.30 Cheltenham-Pairofbrowneyes @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
2.30 Lingfield-London @ 7-1 [Ladbrokes]
3.50 Cheltenham-Silvergrove @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
 
Thanks, needed that.

Balding's ran a shocker, not sure if it was the surface or she just isn't very good, time will tell.
 
15:15 Cheltenham - Kk Lexion e/w

(Had a bit e/w on this at the freely-available 12/1 at time of posting. Stable and jockey in top form at present. Fair form at Southwell LTO, which was franked by a good run by the second in that race, Quieto Sol, at Ascot on his next run).
 
One or two niggling errors, but ran-on very well to finish 4th of the 18 runners, so can't grumble there!
 
Bit of fun on the sand tonight.
Zabeel star 18.50 17/2
Shahaama 19.20 4/1
Bittern 19.35 16/1
Arctic lynx 22/1 19.50
Cheers buddy 10/1 20.05
Did an ew lucky 31
 
Straight answer EC is that I don't do speed figures I don't have time. Kids and the job take up most of my time. Would love to do speed figures when they're older and have more time at my disposal. At the moment I just look for horses that are well handicapped. Fat load of good it did me this evening!!
 
PlaceBacker said:
Morning

My bets [1pt win on each]

1.05 Newcastle-Lake View Lad @ 5-2 [Stan James]
1.20 Lingfield-Indulged @ 4-1 [Stan James]:)
1.30 Cheltenham-Pairofbrowneyes @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
2.30 Lingfield-London @ 7-1 [Ladbrokes]
3.50 Cheltenham-Silvergrove @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
Click to expand...

Level
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

12.15 Lingfield-Ritasun @ 10-3 [Ladbrokes]
12.30 Uttoxeter-Marquis Of Carabas @ 9-4 [William Hill]
1.05 Uttoxeter-Rolling Dylan @ 5-2 [Paddy Power]
2.05 Wetherby-Indian Voyage @ 7-1 [Bet Bright]
3.10 Lingfield-Lady Lunchalot @ 7-1 [William Hill]
4.00 Uttoxeter-Old Harry Rocks @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
 
Lord Of The Land (12.50) showed enough speed to have a good field on toast below the distance latest, and this drop to 6f looks well within his compass.
 
Not much luck lately. Confident of a return today.

1.50 - Cheltenham:
Shotgun Paddy. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.
Alvarado. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 20/1.
The first handicap on Cheltenham's Saturday card is a very competitive long distance Chase and it features four of the last five home last season. Sausalito Sunrise (1st), Upswing (2nd) and Cogry (4th) were all in front of Shotgun Paddy that day but he could turn the tables on them from his current mark. He may ideally want further and softer ground but it was similar conditions last season and he runs from five pound lower in the weights this time round. He has only disappointed once in four attempts when returning from more than six months off the track so it's likely he will be straight enough for this task. Along with his effort in this race last season he was also a narrow loser on his only previous visit to the venue. He represents a yard who have gone through a couple of lean seasons but, as a consequence, they have many well handicapped horses and the early signs in this campaign are that they're in the kind of form to take advantage. At a bigger price Alvarado is of some interest. He is better known for his Grand National exploits but he won this race back in 2013 and, after missing the cut for the big race last season, connections will be keen to get his mark back up to ensure it doesn't happen this season. He has plenty of form when fresh and the ground has remained in his favour with less rain than anticipated falling. He is well into veteran status now at eleven years old but he doesn't have many miles on the clock for one of his age and his ability to travel strongly and be tactically versatile will always hold him in good stead in a race of this nature. The yard are in cracking form and they have a very profitable 15% strike rate with their Chasers in handicaps in recent seasons.


2.25 - Cheltenham:
Aso. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1. (BetVictor, 1/4 odds first 6)
Buywise. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1. (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
As befits the prize money on offer, this is ferociously competitive. More Of That is a potentially top class Chaser but it's difficult to be confident about anything the yard send out at the moment, such is their poor form. That may all change this afternoon because the Trainer knows how to win these big handicaps here but the percentage call is to oppose. Paul Nicholls is also a man to be feared here and he could hardly have his string in better order. He runs four and in Frodon, As De Mee, Bouvreuil and Art Mauresque he has a quality team. The first three have the potential to be better than their current marks and the last named comes here chasing a hat-trick, so a win for any of them wouldn't be a surprise. It's not unusual for Venetia Williams to have a slow start to the season because the majority of her horses seem to relish softer ground but the fact she hasn't sent out many so far in this campaign has to be a bit of a worry. However, one of her representatives here, Aso, could be on a good mark on a few pieces of form last season. He beat subsequent Festival winner, Ballyalton, off level weights at Market Rasen last January and his effort in the Arkle in March suggests there could be some leverage in a mark of 144. Races like this are not always easy to win on reappearance but Aso has run well on his initial outing of both seasons for this Trainer to date. He would've preferred softer ground but it was G/S when he ran in the Arkle and he is unexposed over this sort of trip. Buywise is a bit of an enigma; often doing all his best work when the race is over. He is prone to at least one howler per race but he has a serious engine and he can never be written off. He narrowly missed out on winning this race last season and, not for the first time, looked mighty unlucky in doing so. He is two pounds higher in the weights this time round (seven pounds better off with the winner) but the rise is of little consequence is he puts everything together. That's a big IF but he warmed up for this by running as well as he has ever done over hurdles at Aintree last month. For a horse who has jumping frailties, he seems to surprisingly like this venue having run well in all six previous attempts over fences (three on the old course and three on the new course). He takes a bit of knowing but Paul Moloney has been on board for five of his six victories under rules and the horse has never fallen or unseated in fourteen starts as a Chaser. After a slow start the yard are beginning to find their feet and one of their two big priced runners here yesterday performed above expectations.


3.15 - Wetherby - Lightening Rod. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.


3.35 - Cheltenham - Robin Of Locksley. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 9/1.
 
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