What are you backing Today?

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Kempton 3.05 - Holly Bush Henry (11/2 taken) could be chucked in back over fences.

Wetherby 2.05 - poor race and I think Duke Of Navan (7/2) can do something positive.
 
Pilgrims Bay is a horse to keep an eye on this season. I'm guessing the big chase back here at Kempton in February is the obvious race to go for. The race he won last year!
 
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Marble said:
Another horse I've mentioned plenty on here, EDDIEMAURICE, is declared for 3:40 at Kempton tomorrow. He has a squeak.
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Nothing much to report lately in terms of winners, so I hope my cliff horse Eddiemaurice is my saving grace...I'm not banking on it though, lol. :)
 
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Pilgrims Bay is one for the B2L. Such a fine art for a jockey to have the horse covered up the whole race and upsides at the last, to them keep that winning advantage.

Anyone with sense knows they just have to track Pilgrims Bay and kick on of the back of 2 out. He won't make the ground up.
 
DanB88 said:
Pilgrims Bay is one for the B2L. Such a fine art for a jockey to have the horse covered up the whole race and upsides at the last, to them keep that winning advantage.

Anyone with sense knows they just have to track Pilgrims Bay and kick on of the back of 2 out. He won't make the ground up.
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He's still only a second season chaser. He'll have another day where he pulls it off, me thinks.
 
Marble said:
He's still only a second season chaser. He'll have another day where he pulls it off, me thinks.
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Not saying he won't Marble, I'm just warning against doing ones bollocks trying to find the time he pops up at a double figure price. He'll never be a horse to put a sequence together as it's all about him being right on the day and the jockey hitting the nail on the head.

He's rising on 8 which as you say should leave plenty in the tank. I would argue that the race he won last February was much stronger form than today's. On the face of it. It looks like he needs a couple more lbs off. He won't want to go up for today's 2nd anyway (even though the winner is mildly progressive).
 
DanB88 said:
I would argue that the race he won last February was much stronger form than today's.
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Of course, beating Double Shuffle looks very good now doesn't it!

DanB88 said:
On the face of it. It looks like he needs a couple more lbs off.
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He's won't be getting lowered in the handicap with the form he's in, Dan.

If anything I'd expect him to get raised to about 140 after this. He's been fifth in a excellent Hennessy, second today, so I'd argue he won't be double figure prices next-time-out either.

Today should put him spot on for a crack at a more valuable race next time out. I'm guessing that'll be the race he won here last February, but couldn't they also go for a 3 mile + handicap chase at Cheltenham....? This wouldn't necessarily have to be the big handicap on the Tuesday, as on a mark of 140 (ish)... they could go for The Kim Muir. A much more winnable race aswell, imho.
 
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Marble said:
Of course, beating Double Shuffle looks very good now doesn't it!



He's won't be getting lowered n the handicap with the form he's hitting, Dan. If anything I'd expect him to get raised to about 140 after this. He's been fifth in a excellent Hennessy, now second today, so I'd argue he won't be double figure prices next-time-out either.

Today should put him spot on for a crack at a more valuable race next time out. I'm guessing that'll be the race he won here last February, but couldn't they also go for a 3 mile + handicap chase at Cheltenham....? This wouldn't necessarily have to be the big handicap on the Tuesday, as on a mark of 140 (ish) they could go for The Kim Muir. Much more winnable, imho.
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Not just Double Shuffle, Marble. Theatre Guide is a grand yardstick with good Kempton form and Aso is no mug either.

You're right about his future price. Now his chase form is taking shape the odds compilers will have an idea of where to have him. I'm no man to tell Neil Mulholland where to place a horse but I'd keep looking for those big handicaps where he can get in with a light weight. That will give him the best chance IMO.
 
DanB88 said:
Not just Double Shuffle, Marble. Theatre Guide is a grand yardstick with good Kempton form and Aso is no mug either.

You're right about his future price. Now his chase form is taking shape the odds compilers will have an idea of where to have him. I'm no man to tell Neil Mulholland where to place a horse but I'd keep looking for those big handicaps where he can get in with a light weight. That will give him the best chance IMO.
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I forgot to say. I'd expect him to run a solid race in the Betbright (or whatever next year's will be called) but it will be hard for him off 140+. Surely something will be better In?

As for the Kim Muir, whilst I'm sure it would be run to suit I'm just doubtful he's good enough. You want a real stayed for that and I'd worry about the hill for him.
 
After checking, I can see he's not priced up for the chase on the Tuesday of The Festival. He was well beaten in it last season, finished fourteenth.

They haven't priced-up The February race yet on Oddschecker.

Overall, having just looked through the last few renewals of The Kim Muir, including recent winners, I would love to see him run there. The weights at the festival are very compressed these days anyway, so a high weight is not a huge barrier to winning as may seem the case.

The Last few running's include winners such as Domesday Book, Spring Heeled, Causes of Causes and The Package.

Domesday Book and Spring Heeled were second season chasers aswell, rated 137 and 140.

If I could talk to Neil Mulholland I'd be urging him to enter Pilgrims Bay in The Kim Muir.
 
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DanB88 said:
As for the Kim Muir, whilst I'm sure it would be run to suit I'm just doubtful he's good enough. You want a real stayed for that and I'd worry about the hill for him.
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I'd take the chance he'd stay if he ran in The Kim Muir, Dan. I'd argue the extra distance would actually help him get involved, as opposed to the Tuesday handicap where once again like the last time he'd be up against classier horses... he'll just get left behind and taken off his feet again. I can't see what other races connections can possibly go for, apart from these two handicap chases at The Festival.
 
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Marble said:
If anything I'd expect him to get raised to about 140 after this imho.
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Scrap this comment...for some reason I had him on 138 today when actually he ran off 135, which is even better. E.G...he was raised 8 pound for winning the Bet Bright last season, so if he won the race again he would probably still get in The Kim Muir. Unlikely that he could do both but worth noting.
 
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Im having a stab at Miracle Of Medinah in Leopardstowns 3:05 tomorrow. I just think 114 is a nice rating to start off with and the price of 6/1 is worth playing. Also having a go at Neil Kings horse called Cubswin in Doncasters 12:25. Ex Roger Charlton trained and looks to have every chance tomorrow.
 
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Red Stripes (2.25 S) would've won over c/d lto, had his inexperienced jockey been able to switch the whip.
No such problem anticipated today with Andrew Mullen up, and the current 6/1 looks generous.
 
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That extended 2m2f novice chase at Haydock was painful viewing and anybody tuning in for the last half mile would have thought they were watching the finish of a 4m marathon.
 
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Marble said:
The best bet tomorrow might be Doncasters 12:00 - The lightly raced Pumaflor having his first run in handicap hurdle off 100. He won a class 3 on the flat off 78.

He's changed trainers three times and was formerly with David O Meara. Someone's invested some time, money and effort into getting him into the right trainers hands. He's now with Phillip Kirby.

He surely won't find any better opportunity to exploit the rating in what is not the most competitive hurdle ever seen. He could easily be 10-15 pound higher already based on his novice hurdle runs. He's pitched in the race off a low weight of 10:6 and 8/1 is worth taking.
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Well it was disappointing this day, declared for 1:00 at Catterick tomorrow. Who knows, might be worth putting in the New Years Day L15, but I've no idea about the opposition or price.
 
Looks like a standard class 4 handicap hurdle at Catterick, really. No disrespect but the opposition looks naff and Pumaflor with the first time tongue tie can do better than last time.
 
Midnight Malibu (1.45S) won a similar C/D race cosily 2 ago, and recorded a t/s figure which entitles her to cope with these. Subsequently close up in a much better race around a sharper Lingfield, a return to Fibresand should see her in a better light.and with the experienced Rachel Richardson claiming 3lbs,ahe looks well worth an e.w. pop @ the current 8/1 (dead 8 run).
 
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