What are you backing Today?

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Fairview Race 3: South Africa

Like a bit of the outsider Red Granite(1) 12-1 Totally ignore last run, did not enjoy the poly last run
 
Fairview Race 5: South Africa

The Gown(7) 11-2 Better off at the weights with the top 3 so is expected to be there
 
viking said:
Cheltenham 3.10 Vive le Roi 18/1 Power
This will obviously take more winning than his recent Stratford successes and he’s got a fairly chunky 9lb rise to contend with but he’s improving and the 18/1 looks a decent each way price (5 places)


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Bollix


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I knew I'd seen it tipped somewhere. That was a bit of a sore one, viking, but hopefully you came out on top with the place odds.
 
How can Domesday Book seriously be a 33/1 chance for the 2:00 at Cheltenham tomorrow? The horse was hit and miss for Henry Dr Bromhead in Ireland, but then manages to win the Kim Muir for Stuart Edmunds. He probably had a hard race at The Festival so should be forgiven next time at Sandown in The Bet 365 Gold Cup. Despite what the odds are suggesting this might be the day to catch him running well after a summer break. There are 17 potential runners which makes it a good each way race. Domesday Book (33/1) is generous, especially given he gets his preferred better ground.
 
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One more worth mentioning today is Petrus in Newbury's 4:30. This has a massive pull at the weights with the horse who finished two lengths in front of him at Doncaster, Aquarium. I reckon if my calculation is correct, then Petrus is 10lbs better off today with Aquarium. Petrus ran really well at Doncaster that day after being hampered. Assuming he's in a similar vein of form, he should be bang there at the finish.
 
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3.45 Cheltenham
Perfect Man raced a bit lazily last time out but ran on in pleasing fashion to snatch a place. Today’s cheekpieces should help and he has won wearing them previously. 14/1 looks decent value


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2:00 Cheltenham - For Good Measure

(Certainly bred to stay the distance and should be happy with the ground.)
 
Bolero said:
2:00 Cheltenham - For Good Measure

(Certainly bred to stay the distance and should be happy with the ground.)
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For Good Measure wasn’t off an inch, held up unnecessarily far back and not asked to make serious ground at any stage but staying on under tender handling past beaten horses. I can’t really imagine he’s being trained for the Hennessy as he’ll need a bit of a hike to have any chance of making the cut so maybe the 3m3f race at the next Cheltenham meeting in three weeks is the plan.
 
Marble said:
How can Domesday Book seriously be a 33/1 chance for the 2:00 at Cheltenham tomorrow? The horse was hit and miss for Henry Dr Bromhead in Ireland, but then manages to win the Kim Muir for Stuart Edmunds. He probably had a hard race at The Festival so should be forgiven next time at Sandown in The Bet 365 Gold Cup. Despite what the odds are suggesting this might be the day to catch him running well after a summer break. There are 17 potential runners which makes it a good each way race. Domesday Book (33/1) is generous, especially given he gets his preferred better ground.
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Was running well enough, shame his jumping let him down.
 
I heard this forum perks up when The Jumps begin? The Old Roan tomorrow. Flying Angel can do it for Nigel Twistion Davies in the.main event. He's good ground-Aintree novice chase form, goes well fresh, on a decent rating too.
 
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Had a poor season last year although his run behind Top Notch at Ascot reads ok. 10b better off with Frodon as well.
 
Marble said:
I heard this forum perks up when The Jumps begin? The Old Roan tomorrow. Flying Angel can do it for Nigel Twistion Davies in the.main event. He's good ground-Aintree novice chase form, goes well fresh, on a decent rating too.
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Your first point is true, But not for the reason the flat haters will have you believe.

Good luck with the bet, Value at Risk for me.
 
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I’m also with Flying Angel at the weights. Think Frodon needs a stiffer test nowadays and Cloudy Dream doesn’t win often enough to justify his odds. Value at Risk clearly talented but a bit too in and out for me. The others need to find too much improvement to win this in my opinion


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Stepping back from my obvious loyalties, I'd say Hearts are a fair bet at 9/2 to beat Celtic in the League Cup semi-final this afternoon.

a) Murrayfield is pretty much a home tie for them.
b) Referee Willie Collum always discriminates against Celtic to over-compensate for the common knowledge that he is a devout practising Catholic (although that that's just for show is the rumour going around).
c) Hearts will almost certainly get a penalty.
d) Hearts players will be throwing themselves to the ground at every challenge on top of diving in the box at every opportunity.

Obviously I want to see the bhoys giving them a proper pumping - they rested some key players in Europe midweek ahead of this tie because the treble-treble is the priority this season - but I do think 9/2 Hearts is far too big. They should probably be no bigger than 5/2.
 
What's happened to Frodon in the Grade 1s he's run in then? Imo he's a high class handicap chaser who appreciates a decent sized field and a good pace. I don't think sub 10 runner conditions races suit him

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Broke all records to get home for the 6.20pm at Wexford my time and someone only went and changed all the clocks in the UK without my permission :D
 
Well done DO.

A poor run by Flying Angel who seemed to lose any chance when Javert dived at one in front of him. He hadn’t jumped with any real fluency prior to that anyway


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Yep. Frodon had much the better overall form, certianly compared to Flying Angel, heading into the race. I remembered from last season that I am sure he beat Shantou Flyer at some juncture too, which was good form. DO was spot on the select him, given he felt Frodon was a Grade 1 animal in a handicap. There was a slight question mark today, for me, as I couldn't be sure about his level of form/fitness after the wind operation. Flying Angel similarly needed to come right back to his best form but was unable to do so. I was marginally prepared to pitch against Frodon to chance Flying Angel, but there you go, everything always makes great sense after the race. I am not too disheartened though. I am looking forward to the rest of the jumps season, especially the big meetings coming up. I'd be keen to know when The Greatwood Hurdle entries are out. If The Cap Fits (anti-post davourite) and Solomon Grey (at a much bigger price) are the two I am interested to watch. They both have a couple of pieces of form together in novice hurdles .The former would appear to have Solomon Grey's measure on those performances, but I know from reading the Skelton's quotes from last season that they reckon Solomon will be a lot better horse this season. Solomon would carry a lot less weight than If The Cap Fits too. I think they will both be interesting in three weeks time.
 
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Euronymous said:
What's happened to Frodon in the Grade 1s he's run in then? Imo he's a high class handicap chaser who appreciates a decent sized field and a good pace. I don't think sub 10 runner conditions races suit him
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I've been out since before lunchtime so wasn't aware of Euro's reply and I've only just watched the replay so apologies if this comes across as aftertiming.

I have a Grade 1 rating for Frodon for his 17-length win at Cheltenham in January and backed him in each of his subsequent runs because of that rating.

His next appearance was in 'that' Ascot race won by Waiting Patiently in which the sectionals were colossal yet he wasn't at all disgraced. But I also wondered if Cheltenham had left its mark.

Going into the Ryanair, for which I actually had Frodon top-rated, I wrote:
I’m going to take a chance with Frodon here. He shouldn’t really beat Cue Card but the latter ended up having the harder race at Ascot. Waiting Patiently misses this because he hasn’t got over that race. Cue Card is maybe a bit more robust but I’m not prepared to take the risk. Un De Sceaux doesn’t look a good favourite on any of the ratings.
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He was never going in the race and I concluded that his two previous races had indeed got to him.

I still backed him next time back at Cheltenham but again he disappointed.

Today I was hoping that his summer break would bring him back refreshed and given that he's still only six I reckoned Nicholls would probably be working towards a Grade 1 win in due course but this would be a nice place to start.

I'm just happy to have got back to winning form...
 
To all intents and purposes the Flat season is over for me but I have two tracker alerts for today.

The first is for Not So Sleepy (1.55 Lei) but at 9/4 in a strongish field I can let it win unbacked.

The second is Gossiping in the 3.05, also at Leicester, and I've taken it ew at 17/2. The bet wasn't restricted as it usually is so I assume the bookie in question knows it won't win. Such is punting.

Anyway, it's a tracker because I had noted that it was unlucky behind Medahim at the Goodwood festival, doing best of the hold-up horses and being denied a clear run. I'm happy to ignore his subsequent defeat as he isn't as good on the AW. He's also maybe a bit of a fruitcake but capable on a going day. It's a strong-looking field with the likes of Firmament very dangerously handicapped but fortune favours and all that.
 
Nottingham 2:40 - I reckon I've found an excellent bet tomorrow win and/or each way. The market is headed by three last-time-out winners. They have their respective chances. However. I'm sweet on the mare that Eric Alston trains called Lydiate Lady. Her win strike rate is 8/48, a strike rate of just under twenty percent. She has definately earned her keep. Lydiate Lady wasn't great at two years of age by any means, but the past several seasons she's improved as a sprinter. Significantly she has often won when dropping in the ratings, thus the pattern can be continued tomorrow. The favourites obviously have their chance but I am pitching against them, with Lydiate Lady, who after a better run in fifth place last time, can win this. She's currently 16/1 which underestimates her chance. I may be able to get some 20's later on hopefully. Fingers crossed.
 
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