Agree; BC is basically a boat, and a sharp 3m round a good ground Wetherby would be far from the test he needs.
Have backed True Self 3.10NM, who's the price she is owing to the step back in trip, but she's shown any amount of speed lately, not least around Cork's easy 12f.
Fully expect WM to produce another rabbit from his hat.
My initial reaction on seeing the ORs was that Black Corton would struggle in this field but it’s maybe not as cut and dried as that. However, should he really be as short as 7/4f? Double Shuffle’s King George form seemingly stands out – if it can be taken at face value but it’s a big if. Definitly Red looked more obvious to me but he didn’t run well in this last year on his seasonal debut. Virgilio, one of my ante-post bets for last year’s National, looks to have a little bit too much to do. All of which brings me back to Black Corton. As a second-season chaser, he could improve 10lbs this time round. He’ll almost certainly jump from fence to fence and, like Frodon last week, should be fit enough so I’m going to go against my original instinct and put him forward as the likely winner but I won’t be getting involved unless I can get better than 2/1.
I've only just watched the race.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that all other things being equal Definitly Red will never beat Black Corton again. With Double Shuffle exiting at the first it could have ended up a real messy race but they seemed to go a reasonable pace and Virgilio was being asked to keep tabs on the front two with more than a circuit to go. I was surprised he ended up not being beaten too far at all. Apart from that horrendous early blunder, Black Corton didn't jump particularly fluently - nowhere near as well as I was expecting - but the way Definitly Red kicked turning for home and was asked for big jumps all the way up the straight suggests to me that he was thought thoroughly fit yet Black Corton never really lost ground on him despite never really being asked for everything. I think for Black Corton it was a case of win if that's how it pans out but there are bigger fish to fry in due course.
Assuming Definitly Red ran to his OR of 164, the less experienced Black Corton has probably run to around 160, 7lbs above his OR, with Virgilio on about 159 (OR 157). I reckon BC is probably a 167+ horse in the making. I'll be surprised if he's good enough for a Gold Cup but neither is DR in my book and I imagine the latter being trained for the National now. If they can get his mark down to the mid-high 150s he would have a chance.
If they can get Virgilio down to about 150 he's another who'd be very much on my radar for Aintree.
Doubt he can be re-handicapped, barring penalties, and the Hennessy would be a much more suitable track & trip than the Charlie Hall.Yes, I can see why he'd run at Newbury but unless the Handicapper sticks to the new 'rules' and ignores Saturday he'll go up a fair bit. If he goes up to 160 he won't be winning a Hennessy.
Newbury weights released this week. Penalties for runs after 4th November:Doubt he can be re-handicapped, barring penalties, and the Hennessy would be a much more suitable track & trip than the Charlie Hall.
A prep run, 3 weeks before the big one makes perfect sense to me.
'The British Horseracing Authority has modified Rule (F)42.2.1 for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, November 4th, 2018, may be taken into account.'
EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
[TABLE="width: 932"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Days
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]TS
[/TD]
[TD]MON
(173)
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]/6333-
[/TD]
[TD] God's Own
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 192
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-9
[/TD]
[TD]Tom George
[/TD]
[TD]Paddy Brennan
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]542-36
[/TD]
[TD] San Benedeto
[/TD]
[TD]tp D
[/TD]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-8
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]Bryony Frost
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]321-13
[/TD]
[TD] Ozzie The Oscar
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]43-115
[/TD]
[TD] Theo
[/TD]
[TD]h D
[/TD]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]Dr Richard Newland
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]32F15-
[/TD]
[TD] Diego Du Charmil
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD] 192
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, I’ve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.
Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. He’s now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests he’s finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldn’t back him to beat one or two others.
Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess it’s his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, he’s entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldn’t win although that wasn’t a handicap.
Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest he’s still on a curve but this is a big step up again.
I’m happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, I’m struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. God’s Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and he’s 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.
I think God’s Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.
Bet
1 pt win God’s Own 9/2
EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
[TABLE="width: 932"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Days
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]TS
[/TD]
[TD]MON
(173)
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]/6333-
[/TD]
[TD] God's Own
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 192
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-9
[/TD]
[TD]Tom George
[/TD]
[TD]Paddy Brennan
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]542-36
[/TD]
[TD] San Benedeto
[/TD]
[TD]tp D
[/TD]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-8
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]Bryony Frost
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]321-13
[/TD]
[TD] Ozzie The Oscar
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]43-115
[/TD]
[TD] Theo
[/TD]
[TD]h D
[/TD]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]Dr Richard Newland
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]32F15-
[/TD]
[TD] Diego Du Charmil
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD] 192
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, I’ve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.
Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. He’s now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests he’s finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldn’t back him to beat one or two others.
Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess it’s his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, he’s entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldn’t win although that wasn’t a handicap.
Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest he’s still on a curve but this is a big step up again.
I’m happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, I’m struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. God’s Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and he’s 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.
I think God’s Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.
Bet
1 pt win God’s Own 9/2