What are you backing Today?

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Ayr
12.30 Sassy Diva
1.40 Our Kaempfer

Ascot
12.40 Pym
1.15 Its Got Legs
3.35 Traffic Fluide

Wetherby
12.20 The Paddy Pie
 
S.C
FWIW

13.40 Our Kaempfer It's a long way for us to go with Our Kaempfer but it's a weaker race than what he'd be running in elsewhere so worth a go. Dropping back in trip as he didn't quite get home at Chepstow last time but if he can repeat that run he must go well. Charlie Longsdon

Some other views from trainers lads.

Newmarket 14.00 Consultant Consultant has been off the track a while but I've been happy with his work and his mark looks fair enough. I'm hopeful he will run well.

Wetherby 14.05 Oscar Rose Won well last time out and unlike a few of these today Oscar Rose will love the quick ground. For this reason I could see her going close and she has had a run which the two at the head of the betting haven’t had. If ridden the same she could go close.

Ascot 15.00 Global Citizen Global Citizen is in the form of his life and I think he'll go very well indeed. He goes well fresh and although this is a competitive race I do think he's got a very good chance.

16.05 Fubar This horse might have been unlucky last time as he stumbled on the home bend and lost his footing. When he recovered he nearly caught the winner. He has improved at home since and that racecourse experience might well have helped him. Happy that he has an outstanding chance in a bumper with plenty of unknowns... Should win this.

Also Noel Fehily's Blog

Saturday 3rd November

I’m at Down Royal today with two good chances for Henry De Bromhead and I’m hoping at least one of them will make the trip worthwhile. My first ride is on Raya Time, he won his bumper well in Killarney and I’m told he’s a nice horse who they think a lot of. Hopefully they’re right and he will have a big chance. My other ride is on Monalee who’s obviously a very decent horse. He gave me a really good feel when winning a grade one at Leopardstown and then ran with credit in the RSA. He was then probably over the top when falling at Punchestown and I’m hoping he’ll now be back to his best. He’s got a very good record when fresh and with a little luck he can keep that good record going.

I’ve got just the one ride on Sunday and that’s on board Saturdaynightfever who I must confess I don’t know an awful lot about. His form looks OK in a couple of bumpers but I’m sure Fergal will be able to tell you more about him.

Until next time, stay lucky

Noel

Feel free to tell me if you don't want this on here, no problem.
 
Last edited:
Pym beaten, didn't see that coming. Luckily I stay away from odds on shots in general.
 
reet hard said:
Agree; BC is basically a boat, and a sharp 3m round a good ground Wetherby would be far from the test he needs.

Have backed True Self 3.10NM, who's the price she is owing to the step back in trip, but she's shown any amount of speed lately, not least around Cork's easy 12f.
Fully expect WM to produce another rabbit from his hat.
Click to expand...

Well done. That won like it was an absolutely certainty...
 
Cheers, Slim.
The fav disappointed, but it was run in a decent time, and it looks like WM has unearthed another good mare.
 
Thunder Snow a cliff horse of mine since he won UAE Derby.
Rarely disappoints when conditions are right for him so cannot desert him tonight.
Ditto David's Charm in November handicap tomorrow ; it would be great if John Joe Walsh could train his first ever Naas winner by beating ten WPM runners.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My initial reaction on seeing the ORs was that Black Corton would struggle in this field but it’s maybe not as cut and dried as that. However, should he really be as short as 7/4f? Double Shuffle’s King George form seemingly stands out – if it can be taken at face value but it’s a big if. Definitly Red looked more obvious to me but he didn’t run well in this last year on his seasonal debut. Virgilio, one of my ante-post bets for last year’s National, looks to have a little bit too much to do. All of which brings me back to Black Corton. As a second-season chaser, he could improve 10lbs this time round. He’ll almost certainly jump from fence to fence and, like Frodon last week, should be fit enough so I’m going to go against my original instinct and put him forward as the likely winner but I won’t be getting involved unless I can get better than 2/1.
Click to expand...

I've only just watched the race.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that all other things being equal Definitly Red will never beat Black Corton again. With Double Shuffle exiting at the first it could have ended up a real messy race but they seemed to go a reasonable pace and Virgilio was being asked to keep tabs on the front two with more than a circuit to go. I was surprised he ended up not being beaten too far at all. Apart from that horrendous early blunder, Black Corton didn't jump particularly fluently - nowhere near as well as I was expecting - but the way Definitly Red kicked turning for home and was asked for big jumps all the way up the straight suggests to me that he was thought thoroughly fit yet Black Corton never really lost ground on him despite never really being asked for everything. I think for Black Corton it was a case of win if that's how it pans out but there are bigger fish to fry in due course.

Assuming Definitly Red ran to his OR of 164, the less experienced Black Corton has probably run to around 160, 7lbs above his OR, with Virgilio on about 159 (OR 157). I reckon BC is probably a 167+ horse in the making. I'll be surprised if he's good enough for a Gold Cup but neither is DR in my book and I imagine the latter being trained for the National now. If they can get his mark down to the mid-high 150s he would have a chance.

If they can get Virgilio down to about 150 he's another who'd be very much on my radar for Aintree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've only just watched the race.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that all other things being equal Definitly Red will never beat Black Corton again. With Double Shuffle exiting at the first it could have ended up a real messy race but they seemed to go a reasonable pace and Virgilio was being asked to keep tabs on the front two with more than a circuit to go. I was surprised he ended up not being beaten too far at all. Apart from that horrendous early blunder, Black Corton didn't jump particularly fluently - nowhere near as well as I was expecting - but the way Definitly Red kicked turning for home and was asked for big jumps all the way up the straight suggests to me that he was thought thoroughly fit yet Black Corton never really lost ground on him despite never really being asked for everything. I think for Black Corton it was a case of win if that's how it pans out but there are bigger fish to fry in due course.

Assuming Definitly Red ran to his OR of 164, the less experienced Black Corton has probably run to around 160, 7lbs above his OR, with Virgilio on about 159 (OR 157). I reckon BC is probably a 167+ horse in the making. I'll be surprised if he's good enough for a Gold Cup but neither is DR in my book and I imagine the latter being trained for the National now. If they can get his mark down to the mid-high 150s he would have a chance.

If they can get Virgilio down to about 150 he's another who'd be very much on my radar for Aintree.
Click to expand...

I'd be surprised if Black Corton doesn't show up in the Hennessy Maurice, but other than that I'd go along with that assessment of the race.
 
Yes, I can see why he'd run at Newbury but unless the Handicapper sticks to the new 'rules' and ignores Saturday he'll go up a fair bit. If he goes up to 160 he won't be winning a Hennessy.

I'll be interested to see what Nicholls lines up for the Badger Ales this weekend. No doubt he'll have more than one. Chances are one will be there to win and another will be there as part of their Newbury prep.
 
Three entries, all shortish in the betting, especially El Bandit at 5/1f.

One previous run over fences and no run for 18 months?

Surely if the Hennessy is the aim he can't afford to win this weekend as he'd be a prime candidate for the bounce at Newbury.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I can see why he'd run at Newbury but unless the Handicapper sticks to the new 'rules' and ignores Saturday he'll go up a fair bit. If he goes up to 160 he won't be winning a Hennessy.
Click to expand...
Doubt he can be re-handicapped, barring penalties, and the Hennessy would be a much more suitable track & trip than the Charlie Hall.
A prep run, 3 weeks before the big one makes perfect sense to me.
 
Don't think I could cope with the loving of Bryony Frost from ITV if Black Corton won the Hennessy. I understand she's a talented female jockey, I just don't want it shoved down my throat every 2 minutes.
 
EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
No.
Form
Horse
Stats
Days
Age
Weight
Trainer
Jockey
OR
TS
MON
(173)
Notes
RPR
2
/6333-
God's Own
CD
192
10
11-9
Tom George
Paddy Brennan
156
138
182
?
171
3
542-36
San Benedeto
tp D
16
7
11-8
Paul Nicholls
Bryony Frost
155
136
175
p?
171
4
321-13
Ozzie The Oscar

17
7
11-4
Philip Hobbs
Richard Johnson
151
143
172
p
167
5
43-115
Theo
h D
9
8
10-8
Dr Richard Newland
Sam Twiston-Davies
141
114
166
p
164
1
32F15-
Diego Du Charmil
t
192
6
11-10
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
157
145
161
+p
168

<tbody>
</tbody>

This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, I’ve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.

Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. He’s now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests he’s finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldn’t back him to beat one or two others.

Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess it’s his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, he’s entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldn’t win although that wasn’t a handicap.

Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest he’s still on a curve but this is a big step up again.

I’m happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, I’m struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. God’s Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and he’s 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.

I think God’s Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.


Bet

1 pt win God’s Own 9/2
 
God’s Own should win this if anywhere near his best but I fear his tendency to belt one or two may cost him. I’ve gone for Theo who gets plenty of weight from the others and was looking for a real threat last time when failing to get home. The 2.5f shorter trip should be in his favour and 10/1 looks a decent enough price


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reet hard said:
Doubt he can be re-handicapped, barring penalties, and the Hennessy would be a much more suitable track & trip than the Charlie Hall.
A prep run, 3 weeks before the big one makes perfect sense to me.
Click to expand...
Newbury weights released this week. Penalties for runs after 4th November:

'The British Horseracing Authority has modifiedRule (F)42.2.1 for the purposes of this race,such that racecourse performances up to andincluding Sunday, November 4th, 2018, may betaken into account.'
 
archie said:
'The British Horseracing Authority has modified Rule (F)42.2.1 for the purposes of this race, such that racecourse performances up to and including Sunday, November 4th, 2018, may be taken into account.'
Click to expand...

I must have spent half an hour looking for that info last night, archie. Where did you find it?
 
In my sickbed in a hotel off work n bored, punted a few :

Um shama 1235w
Birch grove 1525w
Madam jo jo 1345w
Flighty filia 1615e
Silver stsrlight 1605r

Ew yankee - um shama , bowson fred, king of naples, san benedito

Avoid these like the plague !

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Desert Orchid said:
EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
No.
Form
Horse
Stats
Days
Age
Weight
Trainer
Jockey
OR
TS
MON
(173)
Notes
RPR
2
/6333-
God's Own
CD
192
10
11-9
Tom George
Paddy Brennan
156
138
182
?
171
3
542-36
San Benedeto
tp D
16
7
11-8
Paul Nicholls
Bryony Frost
155
136
175
p?
171
4
321-13
Ozzie The Oscar

17
7
11-4
Philip Hobbs
Richard Johnson
151
143
172
p
167
5
43-115
Theo
h D
9
8
10-8
Dr Richard Newland
Sam Twiston-Davies
141
114
166
p
164
1
32F15-
Diego Du Charmil
t
192
6
11-10
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
157
145
161
+p
168

<tbody>
</tbody>

This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, I’ve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.

Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. He’s now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests he’s finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldn’t back him to beat one or two others.

Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess it’s his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, he’s entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldn’t win although that wasn’t a handicap.

Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest he’s still on a curve but this is a big step up again.

I’m happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, I’m struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. God’s Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and he’s 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.

I think God’s Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.


Bet

1 pt win God’s Own 9/2
Click to expand...

Spot on DO
 
Desert Orchid said:
EXT 2.05 BWIN HALDON GOLD CUP (A LIMITED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £39,522 5 runners 2m1f109yGood RUK
No.
Form
Horse
Stats
Days
Age
Weight
Trainer
Jockey
OR
TS
MON
(173)
Notes
RPR
2
/6333-
God's Own
CD
192
10
11-9
Tom George
Paddy Brennan
156
138
182
?
171
3
542-36
San Benedeto
tp D
16
7
11-8
Paul Nicholls
Bryony Frost
155
136
175
p?
171
4
321-13
Ozzie The Oscar

17
7
11-4
Philip Hobbs
Richard Johnson
151
143
172
p
167
5
43-115
Theo
h D
9
8
10-8
Dr Richard Newland
Sam Twiston-Davies
141
114
166
p
164
1
32F15-
Diego Du Charmil
t
192
6
11-10
Paul Nicholls
Harry Cobden
157
145
161
+p
168

<tbody>
</tbody>

This is a smashing little race again this year and the fast ground should ensure a true pace and fair result but I do think the betting is all wrong. Mind you, I’ve thought that before and ended up with egg on my coupon.

Overnight favourite is Ozzie The Oscar. This is the one I backed at 50/1 in the County the season before last only for him to lose out on the run to the line after making most of the running. He’s now a second season chaser and his recent pipe-opener (the win before that was back in May at the very start of the new season) over hurdles suggests he’s finding the concomitant improvement I mention so often for such types. However, he will need to improve again to justify his market position and I wouldn’t back him to beat one or two others.

Second favourite is Diego Du Charmil and I can only guess it’s his trainer-jockey combo that have him there. Others will point to his defeat of Petit Mouchoir at Aintree as top class form worthy of making him favourite here but I went low with that race in the belief that the odds-on Petit Mouchoir underperformed. Diego Du Charmil was, after all, only rated 143 at that point and was well beaten off his new mark at Sandown, albeit it against seasoned stars. But he was 10/1 that day. Yes, he’s entitled to improve the notional 10lbs this season but he really will have to to have any chance. Black Corton improved at least 7lbs on Saturday and still couldn’t win although that wasn’t a handicap.

Theo is the outsider of the field and ran a fair fifth last week to suggest he’s still on a curve but this is a big step up again.

I’m happy to oppose these three, which leaves two on which to focus and, to be honest, I’m struggling to split them despite the gap in the ratings. God’s Own won this in 2014 but for me he is no back number. My high rating for him is based on his big run behind Altior in the Champion Chase. I think that showed he was as good as ever although I have gone higher than all the commercial firms for it, hence my question mark over my rating. He was given a strange ride next time at Sandown when Altior beat San Benedeto, being held up in a detached last, which is unusual for him. I suspect he was there to pick up any scraps that were going without having a hard race and he’s 2lbs better off with San Benedeto here and would have been at least a lot closer but for a serious blunder two out after which he still ralled. San Benedeto was raised just 3lbs for that excellent effort but the handicapper took it back off following his disappointing subsequent run behind Ozzie The Oscar.

I think God’s Own will get the fast pace he needs on decent ground and this might be his main target before another attempt at the Champion Chase in March.


Bet

1 pt win God’s Own 9/2
Click to expand...

Great call


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Cheers, guys.

I'm just pleased to be finding winners again. It's been a very frustrating summer and autumn.
 
Corking call DO, read it and was 50/50 on the 2 so went for San B - simply for the fact have had a few quid back on ìt

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