Where's the Festival Value?

Quote from John Hales last week

"With two wins from two races over fences he is proving to be an exciting prospect. I see he is quoted for the RSA at the festival but you will not see him in that race which I consider is the toughest race at the festival.He will stay over 2.4 or 2.5 miles and learnhis trade and he may not go to the festival.If we keep our feet on the ground and not get too excited by media reports I think you will see an outstanding chaser for next season."
 
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TheBear said:
Alpha Des Obeaux 20/1 RSA Considering the quality of novice chasers this season it's a bold statement to say he jumps a fence better than the lot of them, but I believe it. His run behind Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle last season looks very good now and they were absolutely miles clear of the rest. There are excuses for his runs this season and he'll be absolutely spot on for this. He's the best value in the Cheltenham ante-post market by quite some distance.

Zabana 20/1 Ryanair Undoubtedly a spring horse who was a leading contender for the JLT before that farce at the start. It's a very open race which could cut up quite badly but admittedly he is one who could go elsewhere. If he does stand his ground (and I think he will) then I can see him going off single figures.

Fav to get beat - Unowhatimeanharry Stayers Hurdle I put this up simply because I am convinced VVM will go for this race and win it rather than anything against the fav. Being convinced about where a Mullins/Ricci horse will end up may be pushing it but the vibes are that Mullins has convinced Ricci that she stays 3 miles and there's no sign of her going over fences this season. Even if Annie doesn't end up in the mares Willie has a few others to run in that race. PP have her at 5's NRNB which I still believe to be generous.
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Alpha Des Obeaux would be my pick also. Has a confirmed target and I can't believe he'll be that big on the day (Assuming he makes it). So I've got him in at 20s for the RSA and in an ew treble with Sizing John (Ryanair-20s) and Genie in Abottle (NH Chase- 16s)
 
Perpetual said:
I'm all over Politologue for the same reason as you Double Handful – his jumping and really think he’s going to be top drawer

Unfortunately he’s already my biggest ante post bet (after Barters Hill), but am clinging onto the hope he gets a chance to show his ability. Hales loves festival runners and can’t remember any of his that have ducked it & he normally gets what he wants (One Man in the Gold Cup)

think he’s pencilled in for Haydock next week so we’ll find out more then
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Like the horse but poor Cheltenham form puts me off. One for Aintree at a nice price imo.
 
Lord Windermere 100/1 Gold Cup.
Looks an ew steal with the field cutting up.
He has course form and memories of See More Business at 12 and 13 finishing in the top four stick out.
Granted he ran mulish in Lexus but that may be "the bounce " from a top reappearance.
Great thread; it may be the cause of me dipping my toes in AP market having sworn not to !
 
wilsonl said:
No doubting either of their respective abilities but there has to be a risk in backing Charli Parcs e/w because it's looking 50/50 as to which race he goes for.
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I can't see it tbh Wilson. Nicky went through this before with Binocular and the Franchoek saga, something JP deeply regrets.

There is no reason on earth, financial or otherwise, Nicky Henderson would want to take on older horses with Charli Parcs and JP is highly unlikely to interfere

No doubting Defi Du Seuil was ahead of his years and was out early striking while the iron was hot. As I discussed with Grassy a while back those early types rarely win the Triumph.

If however he does maintain his level of form JP is more likely to send him to the Supreme than the less experienced Charli Parcs.

That said Nicky has said it's up to JP and he would consider missing Cheltenham and going straight to Aintree which brings back horrible memories because he said the same thing about Binocular during the debacle.........I really don't see JP saying any more than up to you

If as planned he misses the Adonis, runs and wins at Cheltenham on the 28th he will most likely go for the Triumph.......I hope
 
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Mall Dini runs tomorrow in a novice chase at Punchestown over 2 and a half which is too short for him

I reckon he's being jobbed for the 4 miler at the festival

16/1 available atm
 
I've got him in the tracker as a reminder to watch out for him being handicapped with one of the Festival handicaps chases in mind, so I disagree with regards his likely target.

He's no doubt being run for a mark to get to a target race at the moment, and depending on what the UK handicapper gives him I suspect it's either the Kim Muir if it's low enough, or the Festival Chase if it isn't.

If they don't get the mark they want or they don't think they can win the Festival Chase then they'd consider the four miler as the third option I'd say Truncheon.
 
Maruco said:
I've got him in the tracker as a reminder to watch out for him being handicapped with one of the Festival handicaps chases in mind, so I disagree with regards his likely target.

He's no doubt being run for a mark to get to a target race at the moment, and depending on what the UK handicapper gives him I suspect it's either the Kim Muir if it's low enough, or the Festival Chase if it isn't.

If they don't get the mark they want or they don't think they can win the Festival Chase then they'd consider the four miler as the third option I'd say Truncheon.
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Yeah the Ritz could be more likely as it's worth more, Bachasson is in that novice chase tomorrow as well so will be interesting to see what happens
 
I got Mall Dini down as 3 miles being as far as he wants to go.

I actually don't think he gets the trip in soft or heavy ground having lost badly in 3 attempts despite being well supported.

None better than looking after them on the way to Cheltenham but I expect he'll win easily enough today.

As fas as Cheltenham goes The Centenary would be my guess if there's any cut and the Ritz most likely as suggested if it's good.
 
Tanlic said:
There is no reason on earth, financial or otherwise, Nicky Henderson would want to take on older horses with Charli Parcs and JP is highly unlikely to interfere
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The weight he receives (8lb?) might be a consideration as - with a speed horse - might be the easier test of the Supreme C/D?
 
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I agree with that. I think there's every chance Charli Parcs will end up in the Supreme. The easier course on Tuesday in what isn't looking like a vintage renewal, when he has Defi du Seuil who is a standout for the Triumph will almost make it a must JP wants to go that way.
 
Unlike the chase course I have always thought the new course was less challenging for hurdlers................2 hurdles in the last 7 furlongs sets it up for the speed /flat horses
 
The New Course places much more emphasis on stamina than the old Course does, Tanlic - this is widely accepted.
 
I'd be very wary of getting involved in the four-miler unless you fancy a potential Gold Cup winner.

The quality of animal going for this race now is almost on a par with the RSA but it doesn't seem to leave the same mark on the horses and it could end up the most meaningful target for a future Gold Cup or Grand National winner.
 
Cheers, GH. I was obviously only half paying attention when the ITV guys explained it on New Year's day. It isn't something I pay a lot of attention to anyway. I tend to look for the best chances at the weights and just trust the jockeys to get it right!
 
Truncheon said:
Mall Dini runs tomorrow in a novice chase at Punchestown over 2 and a half which is too short for him

I reckon he's being jobbed for the 4 miler at the festival

16/1 available atm
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The same owner and trainer combo have Presenting Percy who ran a satisfactory 5th in a Pertemps qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas, this is a race they took at last years festival with the aforementioned Mall Dini

While betting AP on festival Handicaps isn't in general a profitable exercise, 33/1 is just a bit too big to ignore for mine.
 
I think there is plenty of juice in Cliffs of Dover for the Triumph Hurdle at 20/1.Not saying he will win but I can see a single figure price before the festival.
 
granger said:
Pretty sure Mall Dini is getting a chase mark rather than going the 4 mile route
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He was off for his life yesterday and he wouldn't get in the Kim Muir off the mark he should get for finishing 3rd in that race.

Some examples..... Cause of Causes who won the Kim Muir was given 128 for finishing 3rd in a beginners race at Killarney.

The winner of yesterdays race last year went on to run at Cheltenham off 139 but that mark came from running in a grade 2 next time out. the 3rd got 111

The 2nd won next time up and was then given a 136.........The handicapper might look at him as a previous winner and stick him up to the low 130's but on that performance he shouldn't.

Unless that happens he is going to have to run again to get a mark above 130 and I wouldn't bank on him doing that after that performance.
 
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