Where's the Festival Value?

Tanlic said:
What a crock of shyte Grassy.........Hurricane Fly was all out to beat the 162 rated Peddlers Cross by 1 1/2 Lengths Khyber King was rated 165 when Binocular slaughtered him by 3 1/2 Lengths
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That 165 was a very iffy rating. It was awarded to him after he beat Celestial Halo a little under 3l in the International in receipt of 4lbs. CH was rated 170 at the time for some reason. Typo?
 
While I'm usually a staunch defender of the team of official handicappers, there are times when I wonder about ratings of certain horses.

Usually it occurs when a race has been one or other or a combination of factors such as small fields, slow pace, extreme going, etc

Often the handicapper is almost obliged, if that's the correct word for it, to come up with a rating on a "chances are" basis. When the evidence is limited they fall back on the history of the race and what the ten year average rating for the winner might be. Hence a weak renewal can end up being over-rated. It's why The New One has officially been overrated for a few seasons now. I'm not sure looking back through the RP site or whatever to see what the ratings were at the time offers reliable information but it certainly helps keep the debate bubbling!

If I get the chance I'll have a look at my own figures for the likes of Celestial Halo but then again I was never a Hurricane Fly fan (yes he was very good at this best but he spent his career beating up no-hopers in much the same way as did Istabraq but the latter was seldom off the bit in doing so and was probably a proper 180 horse at his best).

The recent posts in this thread offer good examples of why it is important to look closely at the form ourselves and draw our own conclusions. Opinion will be diverse and it's obvious we can't all be correct.
 
My own figures have that 170 for CH as pretty much right. He has hacked up in the Elite off 165 and the form in behind stacks up via several lines.

He would arguably have beaten Khyber Kim in the International barring a blunder at the last. Medermit was third that day with an OR of just 153 but he went up to 158 for it and won next time in the Haydock Trial race for which he went up to 164. I think that was a rating based on unreliable evidence and he never won another hurdles race, not that he ran in many more, mind. But he did go on to become a 167 OR chaser.

In Khyber Kim's first Champion Hurdle, the ratings of the first seven home were:

163 Binocular
165 Khyber Kim
168 zaynar
168 Celestial Halo
161 Starluck
168 Solwhit
164 Medermit

If we take, as a possible worst-case scenario, that Starluck's rating is correct and that he ran to it, then KK is worth a 169, Binocular 173 and CH 161. Remember too that CH went off like the proverbial scalded cat that day.

I think those ratings don't look too far out but that's all without checking back through my own books.

*Edit - KK went up to OR 169 after that and won the Aintree Hurdle after which he was pegged back to 167 but his form went downhill after that. Maybe those two races soured him.
 
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Euronymous said:
168 Zaynar though? **** me that's high. Hardy Eustace wasn't rated higher than that.
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Yes. Another inflated figure based on a bloodless win from opponents that were out for a public gallop with him at Cheltenham in the Relkeel but he had been on 162 before that and I could just about live with 164 for this. He is another whose form went downhill after this. It might have bit of a brutal race.
 
Zaynar was wrecked by NH when he sent him up to Kelso in a bog and he was beaten at 1/16 or something daft by that monstrous sized Wyler beast (can't remember name). Was never the same after.
 
Euronymous said:
That 165 was a very iffy rating. It was awarded to him after he beat Celestial Halo a little under 3l in the International in receipt of 4lbs. CH was rated 170 at the time for some reason. Typo?
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Even if I disagree at least you try pal unlike a lot of the one liners on here :0)
 
To say Hurricane Fly spent his time beating a bunch of no-hopers is utter codballs. It's true that they didn't have much hope when running against him, but that's because he was better than them.

Here is a list of the Grade 1 winners be beat in his career, in reverses chronological order, with the number of Grade 1 races they won.

Arctic Fire 1
Jezki 6 (and 2nd to the Fly 6 times)
Tiger Roll 1
Our Conor 2
Captain Cee Bee 2
Thousand Stars 4 (2nd to the Fly 3 times)
Mikael Dhaguenet 3
Rock On Ruby 1
Countryside Flame 2
Binocular 4
Zarkandar 4
Khyber Kim 1
Balder Succes 2
Grandouet 1
Unaccompanied 2
Go Native 3
Zaidpour 2
Oscars Well 2
Menorah 2
Blackstairman 3
Peddlers Cross 2
Oscar Whisky 3
Overturn 1
Dunguib 3
Solwhit 8 (plus 4 2nds to the Fly)
Voler La Vedette 1
Sublimity 1
Won In The Dark 2
Oscar Dan Dan 1
Medermit 1
Muirhead 1
Punjabi 2
Kempes 2
Riverside Theatre 3
Cousin Vinny 2
Grivette 1
Questarabad 4

That's 37 horses, five of them winners of the Champion Hurdle. In total his victims have won 85 Grade 1s between them.
 
Grey said:
To say Hurricane Fly spent his time beating a bunch of no-hopers is utter codballs. It's true that they didn't have much hope when running against him, but that's because he was better than them.

Here is a list of the Grade 1 winners be beat in his career, in reverses chronological order, with the number of Grade 1 races they won.

Arctic Fire 1
Jezki 6 (and 2nd to the Fly 6 times)
Tiger Roll 1
Our Conor 2
Captain Cee Bee 2
Thousand Stars 4 (2nd to the Fly 3 times)
Mikael Dhaguenet 3
Rock On Ruby 1
Countryside Flame 2
Binocular 4
Zarkandar 4
Khyber Kim 1
Balder Succes 2
Grandouet 1
Unaccompanied 2
Go Native 3
Zaidpour 2
Oscars Well 2
Menorah 2
Blackstairman 3
Peddlers Cross 2
Oscar Whisky 3
Overturn 1
Dunguib 3
Solwhit 8 (plus 4 2nds to the Fly)
Voler La Vedette 1
Sublimity 1
Won In The Dark 2
Oscar Dan Dan 1
Medermit 1
Muirhead 1
Punjabi 2
Kempes 2
Riverside Theatre 3
Cousin Vinny 2
Grivette 1
Questarabad 4

That's 37 horses, five of them winners of the Champion Hurdle. In total his victims have won 85 Grade 1s between them.
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Good man, Art - righteous stuff.
 
@Grey, thats terribly desperate of you to combine chase G1s, novice G1s and stayers G1s. Then the one at the top drew my attention as if thats how erroneous you completed this desperate list, then it also can't be trusted for its accuracy. Jezki wasn't 6 times behind, he beat him 4 times and Jezki beat him 3 times. Jezki is the only top class 2 miler on that list; 2 of them had a brilliant novice campaigns in Our Conor and Peddlers Cross but failed to show anything of note in open company.

Thats what @DO was hinting at. Plus like he said, unlike Istabraq, in almost all his races the jockey pushed him to the limits to only win by 1-2 lengths from average opposition. The 175 official mark he was given is the actual utter codballs. He was an ~170 hurdler at best. What separates him from others was his ability for 5 seasons to hit that mark. Like we've seen horses can peak only for a race or for a season, so thats what HF should be hailed for, not his raw ability which didn't took much to overcome(like ROR,Jezki and others did when they were at their best) or by making lists of G1s novices/stayers/future chasers.
 
Menorah, Go Native, Arctic Fire and Grandouet were all verging on top class. Rock on Ruby, Jezki and Binocular were top class.
 
I think they were high class not top ones and in any case when ROR and AF reached that high(or top) level they left HF behind.
 
Aughex said:
@Grey, thats terribly desperate of you to combine chase G1s, novice G1s and stayers G1s. Then the one at the top drew my attention as if thats how erroneous you completed this desperate list, then it also can't be trusted for its accuracy. Jezki wasn't 6 times behind, he beat him 4 times and Jezki beat him 3 times. Jezki is the only top class 2 miler on that list; 2 of them had a brilliant novice campaigns in Our Conor and Peddlers Cross but failed to show anything of note in open company.

Thats what @DO was hinting at. Plus like he said, unlike Istabraq, in almost all his races the jockey pushed him to the limits to only win by 1-2 lengths from average opposition. The 175 official mark he was given is the actual utter codballs. He was an ~170 hurdler at best. What separates him from others was his ability for 5 seasons to hit that mark. Like we've seen horses can peak only for a race or for a season, so thats what HF should be hailed for, not his raw ability which didn't took much to overcome(like ROR,Jezki and others did when they were at their best) or by making lists of G1s novices/stayers/future chasers.
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My apologies, re Jezki, got that wrong.

But I make no apology for counting all Grade 1s as an indicator of a certain level of class. The point of the list is to demonstrate as clear as clear than be that he beat the best around year after year.

Your comment about Jezki being the only top class two miler is wrong. He beat four other Champion Hurdle winners in his career. Five in all.

The Pedddlers Cross remark is absurd, he certainly produced a performance of note when runner up to the Fly in an epic Champion Hurdle. Unfortunately the effort broke him.

As for ratings, this thread gives the clearest indication yet of their limitations. When a horse wins 20 Grade 1s and beats the best around repeatedly its rating is irrelevant.
 
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reg. Pedddlers Cross, how is my remark absurd? I said he was brilliant as a novice but failed in open company. Once he came against older horses he beat Starluck by 1 length and a high 130 rated handicapper by 11, before meeting HF in the CH. Based on that HF didn't had much to beat.
 
Euronymous said:
HF bounced the year of ROR and he was on the downgrade when AF beat him.
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On downgrade? He was unbeaten that season.. 'AF took another huge step pas Hurricane Fly' - were Mullins words after the `15 CH. As for ROR, he lost all his form the next season when HF beat him twice. HF may have bounced but ROR beat him by 5 lengths, I'm not sure even at his best HF would've come on top in that years CH.
 
Aughex said:
reg. Pedddlers Cross, how is my remark absurd? I said he was brilliant as a novice but failed in open company. Once he came against older horses he beat Starluck by 1 length and a high 130 rated handicapper by 11, before meeting HF in the CH. Based on that HF didn't had much to beat.
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You can pick at, stretch and tear any line of form if you want to. However it is a depressing way of going on, completely pointless. If Peddlers Cross is not accepted as a good horse on the day he ran to his best and came 2nd in a Champion Hurdle we can all give up. If Hurricane Fly is not an extraordinary champion you might still enjoy racing as a punter but no more than that.
 
Grey said:
As for ratings, this thread gives the clearest indication yet of their limitations. When a horse wins 20 Grade 1s and beats the best around repeatedly its rating is irrelevant.
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So when an athlete wins Diamond League race after Diamond League race it doesn't matter that (s)he gets beat in the Olympics or Worlds or in a race that produces a world record time?
 
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