Will Altior Be Beaten?

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Maruco

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An Cappall has put Altior up as a lay on the other thread, and his thinking could be in line with something that’s been nagging away at me too.

Now don’t get me wrong, I love the horse. He’s a true Champion and, if anything, still a little underrated. But there’s a big but for me going in to this years Festival. I can’t get the picture of last years race out of my head when he was off the bridle and got tapped for toe down the hill and into the bottom bend

Essentially in my mind that potentially leaves him vulnerable to a slow run race, and I don’t see where the pace is coming from this year. Someone will point to Saint Calvados, but he’s already proven to fall short at novice Championship level and open company, so surely Whittington’s best chance is to lead at a more moderate pace than the one he attempted in the Arkle. Or even not front run at all. And outside of Saint Calvados who? It would seem nobody is going to want to just set it up perfectly for Altior. Henderson may have missed a trick by not deploying a pacemaker, and ultimately Nico may either be forced to lead, or to take the pace on early to take the sting out of others.

Essentially we may genuinely see a slowly run Champion Chase, which would play against Altior who has been displaying more stamina over the last year, and he could be vulnerable to a now quicker horse in a sprint finish. Let’s face it, if the pace had wound up later in th race last year the margin would have been nowhere near as pronounced and it may have been even more of a nailbiter. In addition to this Willie and Ruby also will be smart enough to know this, and I suspect they may specifically make a plan for it. Ruby has a clock in his head and is a master of pace and he’s sure to time it perfectly. Altior taking the race on from the front would surely play in to his hands. But on which one? Min or Footpad. Or do both go here?

I’m all over Altior in some very big multiples, but I’m going to have to take out some insurance I think. If anyone had any thoughts or angles to suggest let me know.
 
Pains me to think it and I reckon his class will see him through, but if he’s going to be beaten it could well be this time.


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Maruco said:
Now don’t get me wrong, I love the horse. He’s a true Champion and, if anything, still a little underrated. But there’s a big but for me going in to this years Festival. I can’t get the picture of last years race out of my head when he was off the bridle and got tapped for toe down the hill and into the bottom bend
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That was my angle heading into the summer. And so I put Footpad in a couple of trebles (one of which is still live) and took 25s about Min in October.

However, I eventually came round to the idea that he was under cooked heading into last year's meeting and I suppose that and the really soft ground was the reason he basically didn't travel into the race as well as the others (at the top of the hill if you didn't know the identity of the horses you'd swear Ordinary World would beat him.) That was my position before the Clarence House, I thought his busier campaign would strip him fitter and he was invulnerable for a repeat in March. That run at Ascot though was ugly, the way he jumped to his left. He should be jumping gun barrel straight this far into his career and at 4/11 it's a reason to take him on.

The way it's going on the exchanges Min looks likely to be his chief opponent with Footpad going to the Ryanair. So what you're looking for as Maruco said is a different set of circumstances for the Mullins horse - better ground seems a given and add in a slower pace and that could be the key.

It's the reverse of Denman vs Kauto. In a slow run renewal of the Gold Cup (2009) Denman had no answer to the better horse's gears. But the other times they met the pace was faster and Denman beat him everytime.
 
The Altior of last season, coming back from a breathing op and a held up preparation, is a pale imitation of this season’s horse. He has all the answers this time round.
 
The Kauto v Denman thing is the perfect analogy Euro, and explains well why I see him as vulnerable this time. The signs are there that stamina is coming more in to play, and that’s usual with two mile chasers as they mature and get miles on the clock. Lest we forget Nicky had been talking about hims as a King George horse before the season kicked off,so he obviously thinks so too.

I considered the arguments about Altior’s prep last year, but I don’t believe it Len. Henderson said he didn’t miss sufficient work for it to be a factor, and he’s a horse that takes very little getting fit anyway. He also ate up the hill so fitness didn’t appear to be an issue.

On paper Altior is much the best of these. But the race isn’t run on paper, and I believe there are potential circumstances that could make him vulnerable. I’m still not saying he won’t win, but I’m very heavily invested, and if what I believe is correct it seems prudent to take out some insurance.

Either laying (not my style these days), or additional cover on Min (and Footpad nrnb), and even something else ew at a bigger price is probably the route I’ll go I think.
 
if his main rival is Min a slowly run race is the last thing that horse wants, which becomes a positive for Altior
 
I don't think he'll be beaten. His jumping at Ascot would have me worried though. Still trying to work out is Altior really that good, or is the 2 mile chase division on a whole poor. Nothing even coming through the novice ranks I don't believe would get near him next year either. Hopefully he'll be stepped up.

His runs at Cheltenham leave a lot to be desired, even his Arkle win. If he was too be beat itd be now. Don't see what does though.
 
Never was his biggest fan but give credit where credit is due

This horse has beaten everything put in front of them and only once did he look like he might lose and that was against maybe one of the best chasers we have ever seen in Douvan.

Min has been impressive this year but has he improved the 10lbs he'd have to to beat Altior.

The only Minus I can see is Cheltenham despite having won there he was never as impressive as he was at Sandown but still won easily

I would rather dutch lay the first 2 fav in another race at the same odds than try and get Altior beaten
 
He wins bar a fall.
Min 's had 2 goes at him now, beaten same distance each time.
Regarding the possibility of a slow pace it's the Champion Chase they never go a crawl.
 
Maybe he will but Ruby and Willie do tend to come up with some strange plans if they think they are up against it.

TBH I can't put a handle on whether Min has improved or not
 
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I think the way to look at this race is, if you were Ruby what would you do?

My thinking is to get Altior out of his comfort zone early, try get him off the bridle earlier.

Altior will outstay them all up the hill so try negate that by getting him at it a bit earlier

Easier said than done
 
granger said:
I think the way to look at this race is, if you were Ruby what would you do?

My thinking is to get Altior out of his comfort zone early, try get him off the bridle earlier.

Altior will outstay them all up the hill so try negate that by getting him at it a bit earlier

Easier said than done
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And Min to stand up.
 
granger said:
I think the way to look at this race is, if you were Ruby what would you do?

My thinking is to get Altior out of his comfort zone early, try get him off the bridle earlier.

Altior will outstay them all up the hill so try negate that by getting him at it a bit earlier

Easier said than done
Click to expand...
Ruby wants min in the Ryanair and has said on several occasions that he shouldn't keep running against Altior

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granger said:
I think the way to look at this race is, if you were Ruby what would you do?

My thinking is to get Altior out of his comfort zone early, try get him off the bridle earlier.

Altior will outstay them all up the hill so try negate that by getting him at it a bit earlier

Easier said than done
Click to expand...

The best way IMO and this could work if Min gets an easy lead. Ruby has a great clock in his head and if he can hold Min up in the lead but about 3 lengths ahead of the pack and keep them stacked up then he has a chance.

If he ride him like he did UDS but from just before 3 out turn the race into a sprint with what he has saved then he might just catch Altior out who as we have seen a few times can hit a flat spot especially at Cheltenham.

It's all down to whether he can steal a big enough lead and if anyone can get the horse beat it's Ruby.
 
Since Sizing Europe stole the 2011 Champion Chase with the altered track ( moved second last fence) I doubt anyone will give anything a soft lead here especially with the Arkle the day before over same trip .
 
He still has to go and do it of course, but Altior should win if all is well with him. If he fails to do it, I doubt tactics will be the reason, he's too far ahead of the others for that to happen.
 
edgt said:
Since Sizing Europe stole the 2011 Champion Chase with the altered track ( moved second last fence) I doubt anyone will give anything a soft lead here especially with the Arkle the day before over same trip .
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Sorry Ed but Sizing Europe was voted as the best performance of the Festival that year and never stole anything. He led after a mile but was never anymore than a length in front until the closing stages.

Let's not forget he would have won a Champion Hurdle but for injuring his back 2 out. His foot perfect jumping combined with his hurdling speed allowed him to outclass a very good field.

They could have moved all the fences that day and he'd still have won.
 
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