York Day 1

Fair play to connections, I hope they will not regret the decision. Bar one or two instances, the days of Coolmore wrapping up their stars appears to be long gone and good riddance!
 
But his Ascot run would have been at 3 when he clearly wasn't the horse now, and his French run came at the start of the season, a race he was bound to come on leaps and bounds from, and was indicated as such by Aidan O'Brien.

For example, comparing like with like, wouldn't it be fair to say his Ascot form in soft compares well with his other 3 year old form?

I agree of course that New Approach will find soft to his liking, but I think he's capable of performing to the same level on any going from soft to good-firm (good side, perhaps) but just not firm.

I think heavy is an absolute lottery and I won't bet, as heavy ground could be anything.
 
I would imagine New Approach will win this comfortably and will probably go off favourite.

That is of course assuming the meeting goes ahead, more rain this morning.
 
On the (admittedly precarious now based on going and forecast) assumption the ground is no worse than soft, why so little faith in a horse who has shown to be able on soft?

Is this an early excuse? :)
 
The ground will be heavy, soft would make it much closer but the fact that it is York makes it that bit tackier etc. Like I said the going descriptions of soft at both Ascot and Longchamp should be taken with a pinch of salt.

As for my faith in DOM, think its fair to say I have not been shy about my belief in the horse all season.
 
I'd agree with that. Patkai has a lot to find on ratings, and unfortunately for him, this is not over 2 miles, so I have no idea what piece of form even close to this trip makes him favourite.

When you factor in the unpredictable nature of the going and it's effects on runners, he's strong lay material.

On a sounder surface, I'd fancy both Alessandro Volta and Meydan City to beat him over 1m4; on the likely going, i still think he has a lot to find with AV.
 
think it's fair to say that the going is going to be "terrible to sh*te"

I am all for a soft ground horse running on soft ground..and horses like DOM..who has got the best from on that surface..nevermind NA..he is second best on that surface on all known form....but... when the surface has a description that no horse has run on..then it's total guesswork...pure guesswork...how anyone can put a price on any horse tomorrow actually running through the sh*te that will be in front of it..I don't know..crystal balls needed imo.

on paper..DOM is better than NA..on slow ground...they won't be running on that tomorrow though...none of them will have met the rubbish surface they will run on.

I'd want 4/1 on any horse winning..it's a lottery
 
The RP website says that no inspection is planned for tomorrow yet more rain is forecast; they then go on to say that if tomorrow is abandoned they'll work quickly to reschedule the races for later in the week.
 
at the prices they are now..both need laying..very little risk for a decent reward..on lottery ground

alternatively...Multidimensional holds the best form of these by some way...purely based on form on on Heavy ground only and is is way ovepriced at 16/1

I am sure it will be deemed a shock result if M wins...as with PB running so well in the KG..but M is the best horse on heavy
 
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Its between the first two, miles clear of the rest. Ground at York is dodgy but I think your over playing it. False ground comes about from over watering firm ground or firm ground being watered then rain arriving. This ground is going to be soaked right through...pure heavy ground. Red Rock Canyon could run well again as he is likely to make no more than a steady pace on the lead.
 
The more I look at it the more I think New Approach is a good thing in this ground. DOM is a monster in my opinion but it is hard to believe he will be as effective on this going against his strongest rival to date. Have gone back to watch him beat Henry and co at The Curragh as a two year old. That day the ground was as bad as I can ever remember at The Curragh and despite being harried by a 5 furlong horse from Ballydoyle he simply cruised through the mud that day. He will relish tomorrows conditions.

I think there are two ways he might lose....1) If DOM surprises me and does handle the going 2) If he is too fresh after a break he might pull his chance away in this sort of ground.
 
Class will out. The rest of the field are Group 2/3 animals and laying the front two would be financial suicide.

I would suggest backing horses at 6/4 on ground that you have no idea they will act on is financial suicide

Class will out - seems like quite an old hackneyed phrase which to be fair means bugger all factually ..to me anyway;)

if a horse don't like the underfoot conditions it makes no difference what "class" you think it is..it won't give best.

I understand what both of you are saying..but I just can't be backing at 6/4 when untried on the going...rather than lay them..I'll be backing Multidimensional I think...that seems more appealing now we know it's a total quagmire out there

If I HAD to back one of the front two..it would be DOM every time though.

you guys must have some heavy duty cank risking it on horses at that price in a lottery :p
 
I am not convinced the ground at the curragh was really that heavy Gal when NA beat Henry and co...on time I would say truly soft...but tomorrow won't be that.

Maybe Warbler would like to give a view on the curragh that day
 
Here's a daft one for you then. Red Rock Canyon to place @ 10/1.

Finished fourth in the KG when performing pace making duties (and you can throw in small field 3rds in the Irish Champion and the Tattersalls whilst doing the same).

I am pretty confident in the conclusion that few horses seem to come from off the pace at York. Equally, heavy going can make it difficult to come from off the pace.

In a race of unknowns - 10/1 looks worth an interest - especially as you guarantee he will be at least put in the race!
 
EC1 said:
I am not convinced the ground at the curragh was really that heavy Gal when NA beat Henry and co...on time I would say truly soft...but tomorrow won't be that.
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They went a furious gallop that day though, particularly given the ground, EC1. The ground will certainly not be an excuse for New Approach.

Of far more concern to me would be whether he settles.
 
EC1 said:
Class will out. The rest of the field are Group 2/3 animals and laying the front two would be financial suicide.

I would suggest backing horses at 6/4 on ground that you have no idea they will act on is financial suicide
Click to expand...

6/4? I actually have a ton on NA at 100/30.
 
Too bad

RP:
THE opening day of York's Ebor meeting has been abandoned.

Officials made the decision to call off racing following an 8.30am inspection triggered by heavy overnight rain. The two Group 1 contests, the Great Voltigeur and the International Stakes will be moved to later in the week.
 
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