York Ebor Meeting 2020

M

Marb

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What do we think the ground will be like on Wednesday? A thunderstorm is forecast at York on Tuesday with some rain tomorrow and on raceday. Maybe this meeting could start on soft or good to soft ground?

I missed today's racing but decided to look at the form for York instead. I fancy two horses with possible cut in the ground a big positive for their chances.

The first was Ed Walkers Came From The Dark. He's a lightly raced, improving colt who peaked at the end of the last season, but won first time out last season so would be a live contender here first time out in 2020 with a lightweight. He's my pick in the opening sprint handicap, especially if good to soft or soft.

Highland Chief is another horse who won on soft at Royal Ascot so would be a serious beneficary on the same sort of going in the Great Voltigeur. He ran a cracker at Glorious Goodwood when totally unfancied in the betting and just worn down by Mogul. I could envisage cut in the ground at York in a staying contest suiting Highland Chief, who looked to just get tapped for toe against Mogul at an extremely speed orientated track in Goodwood on good to firm ground.

Anyway, back to my first sentence, is soft ground a serious possibility? I wonder if somewhere in the middle e.g good-soft is more feasible.
 
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Really fancy Art Power to beat Bataash, around 7/2 4/1 now, was 6s last week

If it does turn up soft Magical looks a good thing in the Juddmonte
 
I backed Kameko for the Juddmonte a few weeks ago at 8/1 and then had a massive panic when the Marois was mentioned. The fav will be a tough nut to crack but something about him suggests he's not the sort to go unbeaten. Magical a big danger if there's cut in the ground. I can't have Lord North, the POW was poor and fell apart for him.

The big mile handicap on the Thursday is hella tough but I've been waiting for Solid Stone to run in a big field one since he won at Sandown. The Magnet Cup didn't suit him.

The Lonsdale has a nice betting shape. Enbihaar looks quality but she's yet to run against colts or over further than 14f so she's one to take on as is Nayef Road (I have a rule to always oppose Braveheart horses at short prices in group races) and so I've come down on Eagles By Day who's won here. There are possible stamina concerns as he ran out of gas at Goodwood but 2m on that track is harder than York as a lot of it is uphill.
 
I think the ground will be fine.

It's currently good-to-firm and the amount of rain forecast is less than they would add artificially.
 
I think al Ali is a grp 1 sprinter. Not sure the fast five is exactly what he wants but happy with 10s ew. Think he is a better horse than bataash has faced this year.
 
HawkWing said:
I think al Ali is a grp 1 sprinter. Not sure the fast five is exactly what he wants but happy with 10s ew. Think he is a better horse than bataash has faced this year.
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I agree but Battaash is a lot better than anything A'ali has faced in his entire career. I might look at backing him without Battaash.
 
Ground currently good.

Ryan Moore rides Came From The Dark.
 
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Looks like Ghaiyyath will be gifted another soft lead, and probably overrated again because of it. Confident his denouement will come, the first time he's properly taken on.
 
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A French runner who has been running well and could run in the Lonsdale Cup on Friday or the Ebor on Saturday is called Get Shirty. He looks interesting.
 
pawras said:
At the moment I fancy Lord North over Ghaiyyath
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TBH, Pawras, I've gone in balls deep on Ghaiyyath @ 11/8 as I reckon he should be much shorter for this contest. An in form front-runner that's almost guaranteed an easy lead, ridden by possibly the best exponent in Europe of that type of ride.
Hard to see him fail,imo.
 
I plan to get a preliminary look at the Ebor today but before I do the one that is slapping me all over the shop is Fujaira Prince.

We'll see what the numbers say...
 
In the Voltigeur, I think Juan Elcano is a phenomenal each-way bet at 16/1 with three places going. He really should be in the front three in the market. He's already joint-top on ratings and there has to be every chance that he will find a fair bit of improvement for the step up in trip and I'd fancy him to see off the more exposed opponents. I'd fear the unknown quantities Darain and Roberto Escobarr more but they have an awful lot to find.
 
reet hard said:
TBH, Pawras, I've gone in balls deep on Ghaiyyath @ 11/8 as I reckon he should be much shorter for this contest. An in form front-runner that's almost guaranteed an easy lead, ridden by possibly the best exponent in Europe of that type of ride.
Hard to see him fail,imo.
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Couple of things - he's a Godolphin so there's always the possibility of a bad run. With Enable needing the run in the Eclipse I think it's fair to say this is a better field.
 
I was quiet keen to take on Ghaiyyath initially but now I'm not so sure. Magical has looked good this season but there have to be question marks as to the level of opposition with Sir Dragonet looking no better than a G3 horse and Search for a Song thus far a shadow of the filly she was last year. The Pretty Polly form doesn't look too good in hindsight either, for all she was impressive.

Much as I like Kameko and Lord North this won't be an easy introduction to 10f for Kameko and Lord North is going to find this much tougher than the POW.

Shades of odds against Ghaiyyath is probably about right and while I wouldn't invest too much at that I wouldn't want to be a layer.

Elsewhere I've given Arecibo one more chance in the opener at 10/1 e/w as he looks to have been drawn on the side with the pace and 5.5f on good ground will be ideal. He does tend to regularly find one or two too good though so I've saved on the favourite who was a strong traveller last season and seems to be seeing his races out better this year.

I'm also siding with Solo Saxophone to resume his progression on the flat in the 2m H'cap at 10/1
 
Liking the look of Dancin inthestreet in the 4.20 tomorrow. Excellent placed run behind Art Power earlier this season. Put a line through the last day. Hopefully I can get a decent price on her tomorrow.
 
Bottom line about the Juddmonte is unless you've played it ante-post and have three places it's a tough one now and probably best left alone
 
Euronymous said:
Couple of things - he's a Godolphin so there's always the possibility of a bad run. With Enable needing the run in the Eclipse I think it's fair to say this is a better field.
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Aye, Euro, but he's from the consistent side of Godolphin. It's a classy race alright, but the 103 rated Johnston moke is his only likely challenger, in the early stages.
 
I looked again at tomorrow, especially the handicaps. I am going to end up backing more than horse in a few of the races. It looks mighty competative.
 
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On Thursday Devious Company is generally available at 2/1. Should be 1/2. 13lbs clear on ORs and RPRs. In theory is a bigger certainty than Dream Of Dreams the other day but I'll settle for a nose win :lol:
 
Wednesday

1.45Jawwaal looks the business, but that's reflected in his price. Have bet Jonah Jones ew who wasn't far behind him, and is 9lb better in.
14/1 6 places Wm Hill.

2.45 Darain Appears to be flying a bit high, but beautifully bred for the job, and JG doesn't tilt at windmills.
7/2 Wm Hill

3.15 Ghaiyyath. 11/8

3.45 Just in time Been off for 2 years, but ran pretty close to his Mallard winning rating on his recent re-appearance. Still young for a stayer, and first time pieces offer hope he'll improve for that debut.
14/1 5 places.

4.20 Lady In France won a good Ayr listed last backend and take it on trust her recent spin was a warm-up for connection's home track.
11/1 4 places bet fair.

That's as many bets as I'd have in a normal week, hope there's profit in them somewhere.
Luck to all.
 
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