York Ebor Meeting 2020

Desert Orchid said:
Shouldn't have bothered studying... :p
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To be honest I think I may just start backing favourites in these big field prestige handicaps. So many times I look through the form trying to find some big priced outsider to run an each way blinder and the favourite hacks up. A lot of the time the chance is there for all to see but I subconsciously think I can’t bet a 9/2 shot in a field of 20 and try and look for ‘value’. Fujaira Prince is lightly raced, clearly highly thought of and pretty much unexposed so maybe 11/2 was the real value? Sorry for rambling.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This gives a long list of (in order of appearance in the table):

Euchen Glen 5th
Monica Sheriff 4th
Verdana Blue 3rd
Ghostwatch
Stargazer
King’s Advice
Glencadam Glory 2nd
Dash Of Spice
Hochfeld

Fujaira Prince was uppermost in my mind at the start of the week but I didn’t realise it was such a tough race and he's a short price. Five of the first six in the betting don’t make the list but that’s not to say they can’t win.
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If I'd backed Fujaira Prince I'd probably be sick at not being on the tricast.
 
nickf88 said:
To be honest I think I may just start backing favourites in these big field prestige handicaps. So many times I look through the form trying to find some big priced outsider to run an each way blinder and the favourite hacks up. A lot of the time the chance is there for all to see but I subconsciously think I can’t bet a 9/2 shot in a field of 20 and try and look for ‘value’. Fujaira Prince is lightly raced, clearly highly thought of and pretty much unexposed so maybe 11/2 was the real value? Sorry for rambling.
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I agree. Years ago I used to be able to find big priced winners of races like this but it just doesn't seem to happen any more. I'm thinking back to Sesenta, Dirar and Moyenne Corniche. But there's no thrill in backing short priced horses is there !
 
an capall said:
Do any of the handicap boffins have a view on Weaver (?)assertion that with Verdana rated 160 over hurdles you subtract 45lbs for a flat mark =115. As VB runs off 102 she is almost a stone well in.

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RM must be cursing, would have won a minute on fast ground.
(Top weght, flat used to be 9st; Jumps 12st - hence the 42lb difference)
 
moehat said:
I agree. Years ago I used to be able to find big priced winners of races like this but it just doesn't seem to happen any more. I'm thinking back to Sesenta, Dirar and Moyenne Corniche. But there's no thrill in backing short priced horses is there !
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With you on that definitely e.g no thrill in it. Some people would call us mad for saying that and maybe rightly so but I look at these big fields as a puzzle that needs sorting out. Generally looking at a race I try to spot something in a horse’s form that maybe has gone unnoticed and nowadays maybe people are more clued on but it’s just more and more favourites hacking up in these elite handicaps. I understand trainers plotting horses (group horses running in handicaps) so maybe that’s just happening more now I don’t know?

When I first started out in 2012 I remember backing Aaim to Prosper at 66/1 for the Cesarewitch. A previous winner of the race and everybody wrote it off because of it’s draw or top weight from what I remember. I just couldn’t believe it’s price. No previous winners in today’s race granted but True Self run 6th last year leading into the final furlong on ground too quick for it and today gets in off 2 pound lower in a weaker race (carrying a pound more in weight than last year but at least has its soft ground today) and bombs out.

I’m sorry I am just rambling now but the excitement comes from backing winners but even more so for me when the study pays off. Sometimes you can look at the form and they bomb out and you hold your hands up and learn but when it’s happening a lot more lately I do wonder whether it’s time to pack it in. I’m not just moaning about elite handicaps either. The 2 year old race today at York I’ve really fancied Kevin Ryan’s horse and he’s just bombed out too :lol:
 
An average day in the end for myself after a good start with Certain Lad. I took 5s last night on Acklam Express in my eight horse goliath bet so I was pleased that won.

I have Strawberry Jack running for me later at Chelmsford. So fingers crossed Strawberry Jack can at least get a place later on or maybe even secure me a little treble.

I have scraped enough money to pay for a small bet tomorrow... Sometimes that's not a bad thing.

Re-tomorrow.... Sir Michael Stoute has a few with good outside chances. Davydenko with Ryan Moore on and Romola with Ben Curtis on. The latter contest they've priced up like Quadrilateral only has to turn up to win!!

There's decent opposition here including Lady Bowthorpe who was so impressive the last day. I will be doing Romola each way though...

Looking at that Fujuira Prince's form afterwards I am surprised I backed a horse like Pondus to finish in front of him. Pure punter error on my behalf - it does sometimes happen.
 
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I was om Aaim to Prosper, too. Having said that, what I do these days now I'm retired is have small bets on horses that go blue across the board on oddschecker and, blow me I had a last minute ew on Queen of Rio just now as she was being backed. The God of Racing does that to you. Just when you start to get disenchanted he throws a crumb at you and gives you your mojo back !
 
Hear hear Moe. It's not so much 'I prepare table before thee', but 'I may prepare a crumb before thee' and I'll probably leave it to a photo :).

How are they about to send Strawberry Jack off a 20/1 chance later at Chelmsford (6.55) though? Arguably he's shown better form on the all weather. He out ran the odds the last twice on turf.

Sometimes I feel a big drifter is a sign someone thinks they know more about a horse than they actually do. Strawberry Jack should be no bigger than an 8/1 shot on form.
 
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I should have gone with the 'horses named after favorite bands' system which would have got me Big Country [2nd].
 
I see Fujaira Prince has been put up 6lbs by the handicapper for winning the Ebor.

I imagine they'll be popping the fizz at Varian's place tonight. It strikes me as a serious undervaluing of the form. I've done some preliminary figures for the race and, while I suspect they're on the generous side, I'll probably stick with them for now.

They also help me feel less annoyed with myself for not following my instinct and backing the winner. I'd said earlier in the week it was the one that slapped me on the face but I forgot to re-view his Ascot win in the run-up because the figures of other entries had surprised me so much I ended up viewing their replays. When they showed the Ascot race on Saturday morning's TV show I did think I needed to upgrade my rating for it by maybe 4lbs to allow for ease of victory and it did occur to me to at least cover my other bets with it. This is what I should have done but it's all part of the learning. I'll be 65 in three weeks and feel I've so much to learn about this game, to be honest.

Like I say, I've gone very high with my figures for the race. I usually do with the most valuable handicaps and it usually pays. I even wrote on the Royal Ascot thread:

Desert Orchid said:
That was deeply impressive from Fujaira Prince. He did by far the best of the front-runners and is probably some way better than the bare form. He's a Group horse, make no mistake.
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My figures confirm Group horse status. If they go to Melbourne with it I will be getting stuck in. Now at 114 (seriously under-rates it, as I say) it's probably too high for the Cesarewitch and I would only be guessing at its stamina for the race but it will win if it stays.

And it might be even better next season.
 
I'm halfway through my analysis of York. There are a few races that strike me as chock full of future winners but obviously much will depend on the strength of oppo in their future races.

The race won for us by Acclaim The Nation is coming out with very high figures. I wasn't really anticipating that so i'm slightly cautious that I'm misreading something but I'll probably pay to find out.

I agree with the Weekender's Alistair Jones that Pyledriver is too long for the St Leger but I haven't taken a price yet. He'd be half his price if trained at one of the bigger yards. His new OR 119 would win an average St Leger, which this year's might be. I have him on 117+p so wouldn't be surprised to see him hit a notional 122 next time.

I don't usually go high with fillies-only handicaps but Lady In France would be a serious contender for the Ayr Gold Cup on a balance of figures and profile. Edit - just checked, she doesn't hold an entry for Ayr. She's owned by Clipper Logistics so probably a return to York is the plan.

I do usually go high with the Ebor and Clipper Logistics and this year is no different. I haven't backed Sir Busker in any race ever but he's been undeniably unlucky and last week was no different. He definitely has a very big handicap in him and is still climbing the curve. I'll be backing him next time but any of the first ten home could win next time too!

I'll add more over the next 48 hours.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm halfway through my analysis of York. There are a few races that strike me as chock full of future winners but obviously much will depend on the strength of oppo in their future races.

The race won for us by Acclaim The Nation is coming out with very high figures. I wasn't really anticipating that so i'm slightly cautious that I'm misreading something but I'll probably pay to find out.

I agree with the Weekender's Alistair Jones that Pyledriver is too long for the St Leger but I haven't taken a price yet. He'd be half his price if trained at one of the bigger yards. His new OR 119 would win an average St Leger, which this year's might be. I have him on 117+p so wouldn't be surprised to see him hit a notional 122 next time.

I don't usually go high with fillies-only handicaps but Lady In France would be a serious contender for the Ayr Gold Cup on a balance of figures and profile. Edit - just checked, she doesn't hold an entry for Ayr. She's owned by Clipper Logistics so probably a return to York is the plan.

I do usually go high with the Ebor and Clipper Logistics and this year is no different. I haven't backed Sir Busker in any race ever but he's been undeniably unlucky and last week was no different. He definitely has a very big handicap in him and is still climbing the curve. I'll be backing him next time but any of the first ten home could win next time too!

I'll add more over the next 48 hours.
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Pyledriver possible doubt about stamina for the distance may account for the longish price, Desert?

Not sure if your analysis includes 2-y-o. I thought there were some decent ones on show with Minzaal topping the lot by a country mile.
 
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Spoke too soon about Pyledriver's price, Barjon. He was 5/1 in yesterday's article but either punters or the bookies have reacted and he's now 7/2 tops. He'll probably be that on the day so I'm holding off for now.

I do time ratings for 2yos and I agree Minzaal looked good. I don't think I've rated that race just yet because I'm focusing on the older ones. I'll mention the better 2yos from the meeting in due course.
 
I've just taken Miss Amulet at 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas.

There has to be a chance that she won't stay and they seem to be talking about her in terms of being a sprinter but there's stamina back in her pedigree especially in the female line and they might train her for the just to see.

According to my figures she put up a G1 time in winning the Lowther at York last week, 2lbs faster than Montatham (raised to 109) in the Clipper Logistics, 18lbs faster than Happy Romance (raised to 97) in the big sales race and 31lbs faster than Ataser who was raised to 86 for winning the nursery.

Those figures are exclusive of any wfa consideration.

If she comes back over and wins the Cheveley Park, which is entirely likely with that rating, she won't be 50/1 whether she's targeting the race or not.

I'm half-expecting her not to run in the Guineas, which brings its obvious risk, but if she progresses further at Newmarket they might feel they have to at least give it a go.
 
Unsurprisingly, Ghaiyyath has been raised to 130 by the OH as a result of his third gp1 win of the season. Now, he's obviously a high class colt, and he won the International in a very good time but, as so many fail to recognise, horses can do fast times when left unchallenged (no empirical evidence, but I'd bet a number of course records are set in such manner - not always by classy horses). Despite all the praise heaped upon him ("best racehorse in the world", latest) he has yet to be properly taken on and - as such - is undeserving of all the accolades heaped upon him.
My view entirely, but it's a fairly safe wager he won't be going to the Arc de Triomphe, and the reason should be obvious.
 
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