York Ebor Meeting 2020

[Desert Orchid]

I looked again at tomorrow, especially the handicaps. I am going to end up backing more than horse in a few of the races. It looks mighty competative.

Yes. The handicaps are shaping up as much more competitive than anything we saw at Ascot or Goodwood but the course tends to mitigate against very close finishes. I'll be getting the scattergun out too!

 

[Marb]

I notice a couple of strong market positives on oddschecker. In the 2.15 Praise Of Shadows, (showing blue on oddschecker), and Roberto Escobarr (2.45) also strongly blue on oddschecker.

I think Highland Chief will run well, but Roberto Escobarr is being backed like he is a very smart horse.

I'm considering putting on a chunky each way patent, really using some ammunition, on those two above with possibly Rajinsky in the staying handicap.

In the staying handicap I could easily pick from six horses who are eye-catching, but Rajinsky is the one who I would kick myself the most if winning without backing it.

Hmmm. The thoughts continue...

A £10 each way patent on the above three seems like a man's bet.

Wish me well then ay.

I wouldn't bank on any winning, knowing how competative these races are.

 

[barjon]

The only bet I’ve had so far is Sacred in the Lowther on Thursday. I think she was laid out for this after Ascot.

 

[Desert Orchid]

The only bet I’ve had so far is Sacred in the Lowther on Thursday. I think she was laid out for this after Ascot.

I think this opens the door to the kind of debate that would serve the forum well, Barjon.

Which constitutes the better bet, Sacred as above or Devious Company in the Sales race?

1.45 SKY BET LOWTHER STAKES (GROUP 2)
[TABLE="width: 750"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Dr
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]TS
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD] Sacred
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]William Haggas
[/TD]
[TD]Tom Marquand
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]131
[/TD]
[TD] Santosha
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]David Loughnane
[/TD]
[TD]Thomas Greatrex
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD] Hala Hala Hala
[/TD]
[TD]t 1 D
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]Kevin Ryan
[/TD]
[TD]William Buick
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]74121
[/TD]
[TD] Miss Amulet
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]K J Condon
[/TD]
[TD]James Doyle
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

2.15 GOFFS UK PREMIER YEARLING STAKES

[TABLE="width: 705"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Dr
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]TS
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]1122
[/TD]
[TD] Devious Company
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]Tom Dascombe
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Kingscote
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]359
[/TD]
[TD] Painless Potter
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]Alan King
[/TD]
[TD]Martin Harley
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]78
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]6151
[/TD]
[TD] Happy Romance
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Hannon
[/TD]
[TD]Sean Levey
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Sacred's race is very tight on the numbers between the top four.

Devious Company is miles clear.

Both are generally 2/1 with only one bookie going 9/4 about Sacred at the moment.

Which is the better bet?

I apologise in advance if this comes across as critical of the bet you made, Barjon. It's not my intention. I'm just trying to get inside other punters' heads to understand how they see things as a means of being more open to accepting a broader approach to value and betting.

 

[luckyme]

What do we think the ground will be like on Wednesday? A thunderstorm is forecast at York on Tuesday with some rain tomorrow and on raceday. Maybe this meeting could start on soft or good to soft ground?

I missed today's racing but decided to look at the form for York instead. I fancy two horses with possible cut in the ground a big positive for their chances.

The first was Ed Walkers Came From The Dark. He's a lightly raced, improving colt who peaked at the end of the last season, but won first time out last season so would be a live contender here first time out in 2020 with a lightweight. He's my pick in the opening sprint handicap, especially if good to soft or soft.

Highland Chief is another horse who won on soft at Royal Ascot so would be a serious beneficary on the same sort of going in the Great Voltigeur. He ran a cracker at Glorious Goodwood when totally unfancied in the betting and just worn down by Mogul. I could envisage cut in the ground at York in a staying contest suiting Highland Chief, who looked to just get tapped for toe against Mogul at an extremely speed orientated track in Goodwood on good to firm ground.

Anyway, back to my first sentence, is soft ground a serious possibility? I wonder if somewhere in the middle e.g good-soft is more feasible.

York 1.45 Came From The Dark





Came From The Dark is an enormous horse who has done very well from a 3yo-4yo and he has taken a lot of getting fit. His work has been excellent and he has had a racecourse gallop which has hopefully bought him forward enough for today, though I am sure he will improve for this run no matter what. The ground should be ideal for him and I’m hoping for a big performance. Trainer

 

[barjon]

Mornin’ Desert, no apology necessary Even if you think my bet is crap!

The answer to your question is that, on the numbers, Devious Company is the better bet. However, the numbers are not necessarily sacrosanct and a further question maybe why he is 2/1. True, it may be because others have not spotted the apparent level of superiority or is it, maybe, because 2/1 is a fair assessment of the “expectancy” of how he will run.

Let me ask you one. If, on the day, he opens at 2/1 and then drifts out to 4/1 will you consider that is better and better value, or will you consider that his chances have worsened? Drifters do win occasionally, of course.

I might well back him but I’d want some evidence that his connections and “the money” rate his chances. So “value” for me would be seeing his price harden.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Cheers, barjon.

I tend not to let a drifting price put me off. It might worry me, to be honest, but not enough to put me off. The market, in my opinion, isn't a reflection of 'true' chances; rather, it's a reflection of the opinion of the betting public and sometimes it pays to fart against thunder. That, to me, isn't the same as plans for the horse not to run well. If it's being sent out to lose no price is value. I can't see that being the case with either example in the two races under discussion, especially the sales race given the sheer vastness of the prize, especially in these Covid-straitened times for prize money.

 

[Euronymous]

The fourth from that "hot novice" Robert Escobarr won was well beat in a handicap at Wolverhampton last week. I don't think there's a trainer who's horses get more overhyped than Haggas.

 

[barjon]

Cheers, barjon.

I tend not to let a drifting price put me off. It might worry me, to be honest, but not enough to put me off. The market, in my opinion, isn't a reflection of 'true' chances; rather, it's a reflection of the opinion of the betting public and sometimes it pays to fart against thunder. That, to me, isn't the same as plans for the horse not to run well. If it's being sent out to lose no price is value. I can't see that being the case with either example in the two races under discussion, especially the sales race given the sheer vastness of the prize, especially in these Covid-straitened times for prize money.

Well, there we part company a bit, Desert. My first port of call is “market movers” to see what is happening first thing. Rightly or wrongly, I see early hardening as connection/smart money going down and,conversely, softening as a lack of it. My experience of being burned many times leads me not to back drifters. I like to see the price hardening, or holding steady at least, for my selections and I don’t like to see them opposed by a “steamer” either.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've bitten the bullet and gone in very heavily on Ghaiyyath at 6/4. I think he should be odds on.

I can see him going clear turning for home and taking everything else out of its comfort zone. There can be no better track than York for his ideal running style and we know from Newmarket and Baden-Baden that he stays 12f so should hit the line strongly.

I do think he is bombproof.

 

[wilsonl]

He's on the drift because of the rain and subsequently, the money for Magical but it's not going to be bottomless and being a son of Dubawi and who's dam spreadeagled the Irish 1,000 field on heavy ground I find it hard to believe he won't handle Good-Soft as well as the O'Brien mare. True, he capitulated in the Arc but he'd had a tough draw and had too much made of him too soon in the battle up front.

It's much more of a negative for Kameko.

 

[Euronymous]

Yeah. I've gone in at 2.62 and 2.6 on the machine. Excessive considering what he did in Germany proved he handles plenty of cut.

 

[Marb]

The fourth from that "hot novice" Robert Escobarr won was well beat in a handicap at Wolverhampton last week. I don't think there's a trainer who's horses get more overhyped than Haggas.

Harsh, IMHO!

I was in a pickle as to whether to back Highland Chief or Roberto Escobarr but I will stick with the latter.

Elsewhere, Rajinsky well punted in the staying handicap, 16s into 8s now, happy to be with him.

 

[Marb]

I decided against doing a big each way patent.

A fun bet only for me on the t.v races.

Good luck all.

 

[Marb]

Hmm, Pyledriver. Well done.

 

[Desert Orchid]

In the Voltigeur, I think Juan Elcano is a phenomenal each-way bet at 16/1 with three places going. He really should be in the front three in the market. He's already joint-top on ratings and there has to be every chance that he will find a fair bit of improvement for the step up in trip and I'd fancy him to see off the more exposed opponents. I'd fear the unknown quantities Darain and Roberto Escobarr more but they have an awful lot to find.

Clearly something not right about this horse. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being operated upon. Wind op or gelding, maybe. It would be the latter if I could get my hands on him right now. That cost me.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Ghaiyyath just too good. Never really in doubt.

 

[reet hard]

That went exactly to script, eh Col?

 

[Marb]

Whoosh. Even I backed that one!

He's got an interesting bloodline with him being the grandson of Galileo plus the son of Dubawi.

 

[an capall]

I've bitten the bullet and gone in very heavily on Ghaiyyath at 6/4. I think he should be odds on.

I can see him going clear turning for home and taking everything else out of its comfort zone. There can be no better track than York for his ideal running style and we know from Newmarket and Baden-Baden that he stays 12f so should hit the line strongly.

I do think he is bombproof.

Well done Mo. He won by the distance he was allowed poach in the 1st 100yds.

 

[Marb]

Indeed. Dessie really clearing up.

 

[Frankel]

Easy for the winner. Kameko looked the 2nd best in the race. Back to a mile.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Well done Mo. He won by the distance he was allowed poach in the 1st 100yds.

Hard to get too het up about a 6/4 winner. Happy to take the bookies' money off them but it really only did what was expected. I'm a lot happier defying market expectations :lol:

 

[wilsonl]

The race panned out as many expected and that doesn't always happen at York.

Solo Saxophone drifted for the 3:45 constantly in the last 24 hours and unless he's not 100% ready I can't see why because he stays forever and has form on soft.

I've gone in again at c. 20/1 with 5 places available

 

[barjon]

:adore::adore:

I've bitten the bullet and gone in very heavily on Ghaiyyath at 6/4. I think he should be odds on.

I can see him going clear turning for home and taking everything else out of its comfort zone. There can be no better track than York for his ideal running style and we know from Newmarket and Baden-Baden that he stays 12f so should hit the line strongly.

I do think he is bombproof.

...and he was. You be working well, Desert :adore: