York Ebor Meeting 2020

Same script with me today as with Kameko on Wed. I've backed a horse ante-post that has drifted after decs but at least I have the three places that aren't available now. I like Eagles by Day in the Lonsdale. On a line of form through Spanish Mission he should not be twice the price of Dashing Willoughby and he has won at York The front two will be tough nuts to crack but like I said on page one of this thread I always want to be against a Braveheart in a group race at sub 3/1. The Gosden filly isn't a guaranteed stayer but I like her anyway and have her in a trixie with Battaash and One Master tomorrow (the latter protection for Safe Voyage who I backed on Monday)
 
Euronymous said:
The Gosden filly isn't a guaranteed stayer but I like her anyway and have her in a trixie with Battaash and One Master tomorrow (the latter protection for Safe Voyage who I backed on Monday)
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Yes. I have her in a treble with Battaash and Naval Crown. The last named is top rated and has a good mark-up on sectionals. I'm just annoyed that I missed the 9/4 shortly after the decs were made.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes. I have her in a treble with Battaash and Naval Crown. The last named is top rated and has a good mark-up on sectionals. I'm just annoyed that I missed the 9/4 shortly after the decs were made.
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Paid just over 12/1 so happy enough with that as it was to a decent stake.

Good luck tomorrow, Euro.
 
Despite the official “good” going I thought it looked tough going out there today. Good numbers of the big guns failed to fire a shot in anger, so it certainly didn’t suit them!
 
Marb said:
I am seriously hoping for the dead eight runners in the Nunthorpe tomorrow as Moss Gill (E/W) will out run the odds of 50/1(Hills), to possibly get a place depending on how the big three do.

A few may remember when I mentioned Moss Gill the last day, especially Danny who thought it needed better ground. It's definately a big if, but if one or two don't run their best races Moss Gill I believe will run the race of his life, having shown a real liking for York both last season plus on his most recent run in a listed race. I cannot see him out the first four let's put it like that.

You simply never know what may get scratched as a non runner before the race. Let's hope the racing gods are with me on this bet. Its a shame there wasn't an extra runner in there now as a little bit of insurance against it happening.

The same comment applies to the handicap later on the card where there's eight runners again. Mick Channon trains an interesting filly called Dalanijujo (E/W) who likes to race prominently as she did when winning first time up in a maiden. Maurice pointed this out as a good attribute to have here at York. This horse didn't do a lot after that win but has returned to form the last twice, racing prominently or tracking leaders once again. I reckon she will love stepping up in grade and the progressive trajectory looks good now carrying a featherweight.
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I was happy with these two placers as it paid quite well with another placer on the day in a 50p each way lucky 31, so can't complain. I have reinvested some for tomorrow with loads of open races so tentative selections.

I've taken Gin Palace who could get back to winning ways at Sandown. Pondus in the Ebor for young Joseph O Brien, and had to keep the faith with Strawberry Jack at Chelmsford in the 6.55.

Very open races though, which I actually like from a betting point of view, a form students dream or nightmare it could prove to be.

I could see it being a really good or bad day with not much in between for me anyway.

Good luck all.
 
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Did I read somewhere recently that there will be no European runners at the Melbourne Cup this year?

If so, it could have a bearing on the Ebor.
 
2 duck eggs today - onward and upwards.
Saturday

2.25 A Star Above Looks bound to improve for step up in trip.
12/1 4 places betfair.

3.00 Queen Jojo Won gp3 over this track latest, also close 3rd in last year's Lowther. Extra furlong a positive.
40/1 Wm Hill, which I think is just crazy.

Ebor Predictable, but Pablo Escobar won a gp3 latest, yet runs off the same OR here. No problem with trip or ground on pedigree, and Hill's 11/1 5 places looks decent.

A cracking card to end a brilliant meeting.
Luck to this ship, and all who sail in her.
 
I've had a very satisfying meeting.

I just hope I don't get too carried away tomorrow and bet like I'm God.

But right now confidence is high and I feel sure I can relieve those nice bookmaking chappies of some more of their filthy lucre.

Re the Melbourne Cup. I found the article I'd read. Appleby and bin Suroor definitely not going and others expected [not] to follow suit.
 
Judged on yesterday's times, and the way Battaash underperformed I'd have the ground as borderline soft; certainly G/S - at best, and I see little change from today's forecast.
Having reviewed my fancies, in the light of this the only thing I'd change is to add a single on Trueshan in the Ebor.
Currently 8/1 b365 & Hills.
 
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This is my summary of the Ebor. I haven't put up my ratings table because it's just too much of a foutre. No matter how much I try to reconfigure the table it always ends up requiring scrolling on screen in the post.

Anyway...

The modern Ebor still takes serious winning so exposed horses tend to struggle but they don’t need to be young to be unexposed, just campaigned accordingly. The chances are it’s going to take something around 130 on the scale to win so I’m concentrating on the ones I think can hit that mark. This gives a long list of (in order of appearance in the table):
Euchen Glen
Monica Sheriff
Verdana Blue
Ghostwatch
Stargazer
King’s Advice
Glencadam Glory
Dash Of Spice
Hochfeld

Fujaira Prince was uppermost in my mind at the start of the week but I didn’t realise it was such a tough race and he's a short price. Five of the first six in the betting don’t make the list but that’s not to say they can’t win. Much will depend on the knowledge behind the money that put them there.

I want to limit my bets to two or three main ones and a couple of value pops. The main bet will be Ghostwatch because Godolphin don’t fanny about with races like this and they set out a year in advance to win it if at all possible. They’re giving the Melbourne Cup a miss this year because of the pandemic and it’s probably safe to assume Ghostwatch was their main hope.

King’s Advice is a bet because I concluded earlier this season that he was being trained for it after disappointing at 7/1 last year off 112. He’s 9lbs lower here. It looks like they’ve taken out Communiqué, which was potentially up to hitting the required level, to let Hochfeld in so he’s a bet.

Those will be the main bets. I’ll stick small bets on the big prices once the extra places and guarantees kick in.

To be honest, I don't mind not winning on the day. The main thing for me is evaluating the form correctly afterwards and using that to pick up money in future races. But I do get a kick out of finding the winner!

Let's hope one of them does the business.
 
I think this is the best day for betting. I have some nice ap possies.

In the Strensall I burgled some 12s about Pogo when the prices came out and I think he's still overpriced at 6/1. Closely matched with Dark Vision via the Hunt Cup (rampant form) he's 5lb better off with that horse for a length and a quarter defeat. His runs since then suggests he may have even improved since Ascot. The fav won this a couple of years ago but I reckon this is a better field.

I got 14s and 12s about Bodyline for the Melrose on Thursday. He went into the tracker after his Ascot run and you can forget his defeat in a small field race lto.

I've been backing Safe Voyage most of the year and he was a tad unlucky not to be placed in the Lennox and slightly softer ground and a flatter track today will suit him. I have One Master running for me as cover on the last leg of a multi already mentioned.

No interest in the Ebor
 
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One last roll of the dice:
Sunday Sovereign 5.10 was a decent 2yo in Ireland, winning a 12k conditions race at Tipperary (sharp flat track on sft ground) by 7l, before pulling too hard & not lasting home, and finishing 6th in a sft ground Norfolk. Now runs for Tim Easterby, (who's won this race a couple of times previously) she has what appears her ideal conditions, and Hills 14/1 looks generous.
 
Final thoughts in advance of what has been a brilliant meeting:

1.50 Zabeel Prince is lightly race for his age and took his form to a new level last season, starting with a win in the G3 Earl of Sefton and following up in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan before disappointing on his next three runs at the very top level. He was off from the end of July so maybe those early races had taken a toll. He put up a promising reappearance at Leopardstown when looked after late on and they’ve given him plenty of time to get ready for this. He’s been dropped 2lbs but is still top rated on current ORs. The rain will help Lord Glitters but I would worry about his racing style here. Pogo impressed at Windsor when hammering Urban Icon who went on to run an unlucky second in the Golden Mile under top weight. Pogo himself followed up that run with a gutsy third in the Ispahan, possibly overdoing the pacemaking. He might get a soft lead here and could get away from them. The rest will need to improve. Pogo is the one in form and on the up so he gets the vote with Zabeel Prince carrying the saver.

2.25 Every one of these is an improver on my figures. The key is working out which curves are steepest or which can be expected to take their form to the highest new level as they’ll all need to improve at least 4lbs to be up to winning a normal renewal, such is the quality of this race historically. For many, stepping up to this trip will bring about the necessary improvement. Haggas targets this race too so both of his are respected. Palmer, Morrison, Balding and Prescott also like to keep one or two for this race. The Prescott horse interests me. The trainer has sent out Revolver to rack up six successive handicap wins to take his OR from 57 to 98 so he could have got it in here off 85 if he’d held on to it. If he’s kept Bodyline back for this more valuable race it has to be significant. Punctuation tops my figures and is on the right kind of curve so, at a big price, has to be a value bet too. Kipps has the right curve but I’m not sure he’ll appreciate the trip and Moore is a negative. Literally any one of them could win and it’s all really about second-guessing connections’ intentions. I’ll settle for three against the field in A Star Above, Bodyline and Punctuation.

3.00 I can see Shine So Bright trapping like Mick The Miller and trying to steal this from the front. He went too fast at Epsom but maybe this flatter track will help him not go mad. Still, he’s vulnerable to better horses and whichever runs their race will win. It’s maybe a race best watched but the one that’s just too long too ignore is Brando at around 25/1.

3.40 Covered elsewhere

4.40 Again, this is about trying to anticipate what, if anything, will hit or beat the target. Mountain Hunter could win by default if nothing does but I’d rather peg him as a marker. Likewise Aasheq and Cockalorum. Fifth Position got messed about early behind Maydanny at Goodwood then spent the rest of the race fighting Atzeni but swept into a challenging position before those exertions told. I’ve rated him as dead-heating for second and it’s possible he’s better than that again by some way but Maydanny skated up like a Group horse and must have a shout. Pivoine never showed in the John Smith’s but would have a shout on his win in last year’s big race. Maydanny looks very uncomplicated and is taken to see off Fifth Position and Cape Cavalli who got a dreadful ride in the same race but this might not be a race for a hold-up ride.
 
I'm glad we all seem to have enjoyed the thread and meeting at York. Two notable absentees from posting were Jinny and Danny but hopefully we will hear from them again in due course.

Fwiw, I have also taken Bodyline as I like the first time gelded factor.

It's no great secret but in these showcase handicaps I always pay due attention to anything that was recently gelded or on the upgrade and/or making progress having been gelded.

We are in it together with Bodyline then. Good luck us. Looking forward to the action.
 
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I agree; listening to racing radio [as I do most days] it seemed that a lot of horses were winning after being gelded so it's become my new 'first time hood/2 run after wind surgery' strategy. I think a lot of trainers probably used lockdown to geld horses that they'd been thinking about having done and reckoned they might as well do it with not knowing if and when racing would start again.
 
I need to thank you DO for putting up Certain Lad a couple of runs ago when it was second to Sinjaari. As a result when I saw it was running today upped to Group company I had to back it, that's got me off to a flyer.
 
Shocking ride by Tudhope on lord glitters not making any sort of move until the leaders were gone. Similar to his shocker on the Queen’s horse the other day


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Marb said:
I'm glad we all seem to have enjoyed the thread and meeting at York. Two notable absentees from posting were Jinny and Danny but hopefully we will hear from them again in due course.

Fwiw, I have also taken Bodyline as I like the first time gelded factor.

It's no great secret but in these showcase handicaps I always pay due attention to anything that was recently gelded or on the upgrade and/or making progress having been gelded.

We are in it together with Bodyline then. Good luck us. Looking forward to the action.
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I’ve certainly enjoyed reading everyone’s contributions and impressed with the thinking behind selections and glad to see how well people have done. All very much against my own way of things. I’ve only had 4 bets with one to come today which is just a punt as I give Threat his last chance. Anyway, thanks to all.
 
Do any of the handicap boffins have a view on Weaver (?)assertion that with Verdana rated 160 over hurdles you subtract 45lbs for a flat mark =115. As VB runs off 102 she is almost a stone well in.

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an capall said:
Do any of the handicap boffins have a view on Weaver (?)assertion that with Verdana rated 160 over hurdles you subtract 45lbs for a flat mark =115. As VB runs off 102 she is almost a stone well in.
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I usually work on a 42lbs differential but there wasn't anything in her Flat form to support it.

Plus the ground probably wouldn't have suited her.

Plus Fujaira Prince was probably more than a stone well in too.
 
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